Kashmir : Counter Terror Operation Updates and Discussions
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I read a report about this very same place in ArabNews. We can only get to know if anything has happened or not if army officially says it. Till then, there is always doubt.
Nothing that I am aware of yet. We are not involved there. Except to keep an eye on things. Lot of other players busy there.
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If something at all is being done, the government will have to declare emergency for sometime and postpone elections. I wonder if this was discussed in all part meet?
He was referring to the old incident.
Russia will supply to China a replacement for the S-400 air defense system missiles instead of those damaged during a storm in the English Channel a year ago, Rostec corporation chief Sergei Chemezov told the media at the IDEX-2019 exhibition in Abu Dhabi on Monday.
Russia to ship to China S-400 missiles instead of those damaged during delivery
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There is no need to highlight it, it could be a part of contingencies. What may happen in various situations. Eg: If Pakistan fails to deliver on certain demands then we will do X and if X escalated to Y then Z and if Z then A, B and C will need to happen and all parties agree that election may be postponed with suitable emergency measures.
My take is :
No political party wants any action that will require their undivided attention. They are preparing for elections. So very likely nothing will be done till july/august. At that point, new government will be in power and most importantly people would have forgotten about it. If Indian public send a strong message to politicians by say handing a massive defeat to Modi and BJP, then in future such incidences will lead to real action on the part of political parties, even and especially during election time. I guess the common understanding between all political parties is that no one should make too much of an issue of this matter. So, any pot shots will come via back-channels. BJP's own disgruntled leaders occasionally calling Modi's strong-leader image as fake.
IF an action happens, elections will be delayed.
Interestingly, if Modi still wins, it will give a very important tool to Pakistan. A template to further terrorism in India by aligning it with Indian elections.
Trade and isolation are two different things.
What we need to cut their access from is funding.
SA, China and UAE will not abandon Pakistan anyway.
Why are you so scared of nukes? If they hit us with nuke that will wipe out Pakistan and we will still be standing with wounds.
They have to make the choice, not us, inki maa c******gi ab.
Why should we even get those wounds?
We haven't gone to war with Pakistan for decades because of nukes. And now that we will be deploying defences against those nukes, you want us to still get hit by those same nukes?
I already said it earlier, had this been 2001-02 or even 2008-09, then BMD was a decade away and going to war was acceptable even if we were attacked by nukes. But now we are so close to providing significant amount of security to our major cities, so why ruin that with a war just before its time? That's like playing straight into Pakistani hands like suckers. All our financial strength and resources will become meaningless if we go to war without first establishing an active working BMD.
In 2-3 years, we will have established a significant amount of BMD capability and the army would also have modernised, including with IBGs and such. Even the Americans took years to prepare for D-Day during WW2. These things don't happen suddenly.
But yeah, they should be the ones to make the choice, not us.
Ok. Let's deal with what you've to say in a piece by piece manner.
In case you didn't notice, the last time the Taliban overran Afghanistan, the heavy lifting was done by the PA and its ex personnel including serving and ex personnel of the PA & its para military forces. You actually think "men" On bikes & "mules" Are doing the trick?
I hope that takes care of what you think the Taliban is all about. Admittedly it'd be a tad difficult but not impossible to defeat the ANA, as you seem to suggest. At least I don't think so.
Sharing borders is a double edged sword. While Iran has its compulsions, Russia doesn't by virtue of the fact that they don't share a border with the Afghans. Both of them are doing it to undermine the US, while China is laughing secretly and the Pakistanis not so secretly.
While both the Iranians & the Russians are of the belief that the Taliban is a security threat to them but an existential threat to the state of Pakistan, are we acting in concert with the Iranians & the Russians? I think not. Though some sense may have been reinforced thanks to Pulwama.
Admittedly we have little options here. But it sure doesn't help not co ordinating our actions with both the Iranians & the Russians since they don't have any love lost for the Taliban too. Further, it does help in having a direct line of communication with the Taliban instead of relying solely on Iran & Russia. Talking to the Taliban doesn't equal delegitimising our recognition of the GoA.
Again a double edged sword. US withdrawal from Afghanistan signifies an end of an era and a beginning of another. It would definitely mean action initiated by the US on certain issues but does that mean all issues? Do you think MSB would've announced what he did in Islamabad without consulting the Trump administration?
If you think so.
And without significant assests there plus the fact that you're against a full fledged air / naval strike, given that our army are not well equipped nor as per Praveen Swamy , oriented towards battle given their pre occupation towards CI, will they do so?
I've heard RG's ( the original's - hume dekhna hain, as a child) . There's a lot we can do ( as @Falcon has pointed out in his poignant piece) , but are we doing it? - No -
Will we do it? - No -
Modi is following in his Predessors's footsteps.
That doesn't mean we won't strike. We will. It'd be a notch or two upwards of a surgical strike with plenty of covert action. But not enough to deter the PA in the long term.
Why? Coz our PM declared at the conclusion of the so called surgical strikes - which were aimed at the terrorists and not their patrons, that that was it. We wouldn't be initiating further hostilities. It suited the PA fine. The damage wasn't done to them & hence gave them the opportunity to deny it .It suited our baniya establishment fine too. Add the celebration of it & the film - Uri . Plus the fact that their proxies are being decimated by the day.including such high profile targets as MA's nephew.
You think the PA would let go of the opportunity, if it presented itself, in whatever shape or form.
We should be ACTIVELY initiating espionage / covert activities within Pakistan. We should be acting in concert with all of Pakistan's neighbours including those who loathe the Taliban barring China. We should be destroying their infrastructure on the LoC & the IB in Jammu. Our aim should be a pincer movement which involves sustained fire assaults on the LoC / IB and sustained kinetic action (" Surgical strikes ") Across it. Add active support to malcontents within viz the TTP, PTM, Baloch resistance, MQM, etc & you'd be doing a Pakistan on Pakistan i.e bleeding them with a 1000 cuts.
P. S in your response to my post which you've quoted, you never commented on our covert activities and exploitation of the ever widening fault lines within Pakistan. An essential ingredient, I would think, since you're advocating, minimal direct response to the Pulwama outrage. I don't think you've thought out your response well. It seems to be more wishful thinking akin to what our security managers & foreign policy Mandarins think - don't get our hands dirty, always be in reaction mode, expect our forces to operate with one hand tied behind their backs, expect the world to shoulder your burden & fight what's essentially your war
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Naturally PA supports Taliban. But at the same time ANA is supported by NATO. So there is plenty of equivalency here.
Russia has military presence in some of the Central Asian countries.
So it's in their interest to keep their borders safe.
It's better for us to align our demands with the GoA instead. We do not want to be seen as a player in Afghanistan internationally.
As far as the GCC and Israel are concerned, Iran is a frightening enemy to them. Especially after Qatar has abandoned the GCC in favour of Iran and there's the Yemen fiasco. So whatever they are planning, it's focused entirely on Iran.
No, I am against war at this specific time. And I am against operations where they can pay back in kind. But there should still be a lot of other options. For example, just saying, a pivot corps occupying a region in Pakistan, in a reverse-Kargil. I have no idea what's been planned, but it's not going to be simple.
As for CI, only a very small portion of the army is concerned with it. The forces needed to fight Pakistan are obviously different.
PA will never be deterred. The only way to permanently deal with the situation is the complete destruction of the PA and Pakistan as a nation. The attacks Modi will likely commit to will be much smaller in scale though.
We have been obviously doing this.
Done this as well.
They will just return all of this in kind.
We are already doing all that. And I've already said it, we most definitely need revenge attacks.
But no matter how big the attack, PA will never be deterred. So the only other option is to destabilise Pakistan economically. Economic damage is far more important and creates long term effects versus just blowing up some tanks, border infrastructure and killing a few dozen soldiers. Let's not forget that the WoT has taken thousands of lives within PA alone, so throwing bodies during a war is not a problem for them given their high birthrate and large population.
You want PA to suffer long terms effects, then it's either a significant economic blockade or all-out war. Everything else, particularly short term effects, should be aimed more at humiliating Pakistan than simply increasing the body count on their side, which will be covered up anyway.
