There will be "Zero" new planes, simply coz the PMO and Finance Ministry of India think that 1962 and 2008 were mere bad dreams and that they can run 2nd largest armed forces on earth with 8th largest budget.
LCA Tejas Mk1 & Mk1A - News and discussions
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There will be "Zero" new planes, simply coz the PMO and Finance Ministry of India think that 1962 and 2008 were mere bad dreams and that they can run 2nd largest armed forces on earth with 8th largest budget.
There is no 'silence' as such. HAL recently announced the choice of radar and EW suite for the Mk1A.
And everybody knows the tech specs have been finalised and that contract negotiations are ongoing.
No such thing. HAL managed to convince the IAF, nothing to do with Parrikar.
Mk1 won't fail. Not anymore. It's crossed all those hurdles now.
Mk1A will go ahead, but only if the financial aspect is sorted out. There's no point bringing a foreign company here and making it even more expensive.
As for Mk2, DRDO won't allow foreign interference, regardless of what pressure the govt puts on them. The terms and conditions are simply not suitable for foreign assistance.
We don't need Gripen or SH to buy engines from the US for Mk1A and Mk2 though. If the Americans end up screwing with the Mk2 program, then the EJ200 would be a much better engine choice than the F414. So I don't believe the Americans will want to lose out on a contract for 400+ engines. They will honour their previous commitment towards the LCA program in any case.
GE has already been scoring engine deals for the navy along with license production, so our relationship there is very good.
The aircraft is simply not up to the level. It would be a downgrade compared to a modernised Mig-29K. The Advanced Super Hornet was a good option, but the new Block III is simply a rehash of the old and is ridiculously expensive. Plus even the SH requires wing redesign to operate from both the carriers.
The timeframe won't be suitable for it.
The IAF's main focus is more Rafales, so the current MMRCA tender will be aimed at getting more of them. So any new program to replace the Mk2 will happen only after the MMRCA tender is well on its way. This would mean we have to wait for MMRCA to progress to a certain extent, after which we would release the RFP for a Gripen/F-16 competition, which would take us much closer to 2030 before we get the first aircraft, maybe even beyond. This simply works in Mk2's favour.
Not to mention, by 2025 or so, our aerospace industry would have reached a point that any attempts at importing a foreign older generation fighter will become political suicide. With the withdrawal of FGFA, Mk1A production coming to a close and MMRCA and AMCA production moving to the private industry, HAL won't have any fighter jet program, so you can imagine the knock back the govt will face if they go for another private-owned imported fighter jet program while ignoring DRDO and HAL.
I am not looking at R&D or license production. I am looking towards an emergency purchase of 2 or 3 squadrons of the Russian variant.
The fact is the AMCA will not match the PAK FA's range and payload figures at all. And the IAF can think of getting something in the PAK FA's class only after 2040. So we most definitely need something like the PAK FA, even in small numbers, to maintain that extra capability.
For example, the PAK FA's engines will be a generation ahead compared to the AMCA's. Along with a higher fuel fraction, the more advanced engine will allow the PAK FA to have a 50%+ increase in range over the AMCA. Plus the internal bays of the PAK FA are much larger, which allows carriage of heavier weapons.
So there will be a significant capability gap between the two aircraft, particularly range.
What if the Meteor is modernised with an Indian datalink and AESA seeker (being developed for Astra 2)?
If we buy Meteor, it will easily cross 1000 missiles, so modernisation will be justified. And since the seeker and datalink will be Indian, there will be no reason for MBDA to be bothered by any Israelis spying non-European tech.
@Picdelamirand-oil @A Person @Bon Plan
All aircraft have to meet requirements before they are shortlisted for L1 discovery. There's no real problem with the process. The only major problem was if the shortlist resulted in a single-vendor situation, and that has been take care of under Parrikar. Now there's even a T1 which will have a 10% price advantage.
The problem with further induction of the variants of Su-30 in service and likely to be in service in the forseeable future is the cost of operating the aircrafts. The same is applicable for the PAK-FA. The Russians have simply not been able to produce engines that are economical relatively. And TEs are quite expensive.
Whether we like it or not, our resources are not matched to the costs associated with increased number of Su-30 MKI or for that matter, PAK-FA. This problem is likely to continue over the next decade too until and unless political reforms are implemented in association with social and population planning in order to support the economic growth that we are aiming for.
We simply can not afford a mass of poverty eating into our revenues, thereby severely affecting the allocations under defence heads. There remains a severe mismatch in the population growth rate in the extremely poor of the society with that of increment in coverage of the revenue generation.
Oh, technically it has failed. Engine? Just waiting for public declaration of the same as GoI formally acknowledges need for foreign engine for the programme.
HAL has already entered into agreement with Boeing. That is where I expect the GoI to work on leveraging this relationship to jumpstart mk1A and mk2. Hence my speculation on F-18 coming in navy. US will need to be given a share of the 'fighter' pie for the GE-404 and GE-414 which we seek to use in LCA.
IAF is unlikely for F-16 or Mig-35 (TE. Su-30 MKI is already there). The choice left is only with Gripen E (likely to cover the Mig-21 Bis replacement?). Rafale, I expect at the least 2 squadrons worth more (about 40 aircraft) to replace the Mig-27 UPGs and 02 (40 aircraft) Squadrons worth to replace the Jaguars (the upgrade is severely delayed already).
Possibly 02 x additional squadrons may be catered for in Rafale as the job of upgrade is being done by HAL and one can expect the engines will take forever to be upgraded
But this is my speculation again.Although the joker in the pack is the Typhoon, but that will purely be a political (and a stupid) choice in case the engine is being brought (that shall delay LCA again).
If Modi comes, then DRDO will have no choice. There is no scope for delay in future programs.
There are political considerations which you are overlooking. Please keep that in mind.
The upgrade plan of IAF has potential of billions, US will definitely want a finger in the pie.
Theoretical aspects.
But if we are to compete at the global level, we have no choice but to get such expensive capability.
The argument you have made is equivalent to saying, "We can't afford an MBT with a 120mm gun, so we have to make do with light tanks with a 105mm gun".
The reason why the MKI is a beast is because of its long endurance and a massive radar. The PAK FA will better this capability by many times. The same cannot be achieved on the smaller aircraft like the Rafale or AMCA. Due to smaller dimensions and lower tolerance for design changes, these aircraft have to wait for technology to become available in order to match their heavier counterparts.
For example, the MKI has a massive 960mm Bars PESA. The same cannot be introduced into the Rafale because the radar weighs as much as 650Kg and is too big to fit into the Rafale's nose. The Rafale had to wait 1-2 decades before it managed to get an equivalent capability through its new AESA radar. And as the Rafale managed to get a better radar than the Bars, the Russians have released a new radar on the Su-35 which doubles the range of the new radar on Rafale. And there's only a 10-year gap because the Russians lost a decade, otherwise it should have been 20 years, and the Soviets would have inducted aircraft like the Su-47 with much more modern technology than the current gen Flankers.
These bigger, heavier aircraft are far more flexible and new technologies can be adopted much more quickly than on smaller aircraft.
So yeah, the Rafale is most definitely cheaper to buy and operate than the PAK FA. But at the same time, it has less than half the endurance and half the sensor range. But the bigger, heavier aircraft can easily maintain a technological edge over their smaller counterparts.
Stuff that the PAK FA will have in the 2030s, the French will introduce only in the 2040s. So it's very important that we get an aircraft of this level into the IAF in sufficient numbers, even if only 3 squadrons.
The new engine, once ready, will be the most economical engine in existence until the Americans release the ADVENT engine. It's designed to be as light as an F414, but generates as much thrust as the F135.
By the time we induct these 3 squadrons of PAK FA, we will be approaching the 2030s. My idea is to replace the IAF's Mig-29s with the same number of PAK FA. So I'm sure we will have the money to spare by then. Until then, we should pursue the MKI MLU, LCA Mk2 and Rafale. So this decision can be taken well after the Russians have developed the PAK FA and inducted sufficient numbers.
Let us be very honest here, our calculus does not have a military role for the same. Not yet. Yoga and Spices is what we push our agenda forward with.
It is not an argument, it is the presentation of the facts as existing.
I shall give you a very simple example of what is the problem.
Every infantry battalion, artillery battalion, armoured regiment etc, is authorized 01 Medical Officer. Yet, apart from active field areas, the same is non-existent (and even in field areas, closely located units share the Medical Officer). The problem is, Army is only authorized, say 6000 medical officers at any given time. There is no separate authorization of Specialists. Now a Medical Officer undergoes Specialization, she/he gets posted to the General/Military Hospital as applicable. But on record, he/she is a Medical Officer. And GoI and MoF are simply unwilling to shell out money that shall be needed to be paid out if, to make up the shortfall, vacancies were increased to 8000.
Similarly, as you increase your Su-30s, your total authorized vacancies are fixed. You can not increase them without GoI and MoD/MoF sanction. Where do you get the people? Similarly, as you increase the number of platforms that are using greater fuel, their allocation if from overall allocation of fuel for the financial years. There is no supplementary allocation in peace time - ever. Infact, MoF may nudge MoD to nudge the forces to 'save' money by cutting down on fuel expenditure. Happens quite often
I agree. Theoretical versus practical!
It's fine. Kaveri was delinked from LCA back in 2004. The Mk1 and Mk1A will fly with the F404.
That has nothing to do with LCA, MCA etc. HAL, Boeing and Mahindra want to create a JV to build Super Hornets IF it wins the MMRCA tender. Otherwise the cooperation will dissolve. Saab and Adani have a similar agreement. So does Tata and Lock Mart. The Russians also want to deal with HAL for MMRCA.
But it's not up to HAL or even GoI. In the tendering process a foreign vendor that is shortlisted will have to partner with an Indian company that is shortlisted. The point of all the agreements is to just show to GoI that they are willing to enter such agreements. None of them are binding. So if the Boeing-HAL JV has to materialise, then both Boeing and HAL should get shortlisted first.
By the time all this works out, Mk1A would have finished production and Mk2 would have already achieved IOC. MMRCA and MRCBF are too far into the future to affect LCA.
Look at the Rafale GTG's timeline. We signed in 2016, but the offsets program has still not started. It's expected to start only after September 2019. It's only after 2019 that Franco-Indian cooperation will really take off. Similarly, any MRCBF tender has to see contract signature first, and then offsets will come into play 3 years later. So if we sign a contract in 2023, offsets will come into play sometime in 2026, well after the Mk1A delivery is over and Mk2 has started delivering.
There's nothing for Boeing to do here. That's why MMRCA is looking to get a partner for AMCA, not LCA.
We have other contracts signed already for the engines. If the US wants a share of the fighter pie, they have to win the MMRCA tender. Of course, we can always have a separate process for a few squadrons of F-35Bs for the LHDs, I'm game for that, but it's a long shot.
On what basis will the IAF justify its purchase? Especially when the contract for Mk1A is expected to be signed soon anyway.
IAF can look to the Gripen E only after Mk2 completely fails. By then, F-16 production would have wound down, taking it out of contention. Until then they should focus on Mk1A and getting 2 more Rafale squadrons.
Yep. More power to the Rafale. But I don't expect anything more than 2 more squadrons until MMRCA kicks in. Even getting 2 more squadrons is a significant change.
This has nothing to do with Modi. Modi cannot force foreign participation in the program. Earlier, what Saab wanted is to have the Tejas R&D outsourced to them. That's obviously not going to work out and DRDO rejected it a long time ago. No one else is going to help us develop an aircraft. We are lucky the French are at least giving us their now outdated engine tech that we can put into the Kaveri for AMCA. But that's about it.
We are on our own.
It's too late for politics to come into play for the Mk1A and Mk2. If they want to play politics now, then they will actually have to back out of signed agreements, which will completely destroy their credibility.
https://www.indiastrategic.in/topstories1881_India_finalizes_agreement_GE-414_engine_for_LCA.htm
I don't see the US doing anything that upsets the LCA program. They are not going to help us, but they won't hinder us either.
Which upgrade? Jaguar engine upgrade? Or something else, like the navy?
There's nothing in it for them in fighter planes. The only fighter aircraft that require upgrades now are the Jaguar and MKI. I don't see them getting involved in anything beyond the Jaguar program, but it doesn't go into the billions though. They are definitely not going to touch the MKI even with a barge pole.
The Americans have no intention of helping us develop an aerospace industry of our own. All they want us to do is buy their aircraft and license produce them. They will be our worst partners for strategic programs like fighter jets. We should just stick to working on non-strategic programs with them, like helicopters, transport planes etc.
Let us be very honest here, our calculus does not have a military role for the same. Not yet. Yoga and Spices is what we push our agenda forward with.
It is not an argument, it is the presentation of the facts as existing.
I shall give you a very simple example of what is the problem.
Every infantry battalion, artillery battalion, armoured regiment etc, is authorized 01 Medical Officer. Yet, apart from active field areas, the same is non-existent (and even in field areas, closely located units share the Medical Officer). The problem is, Army is only authorized, say 6000 medical officers at any given time. There is no separate authorization of Specialists. Now a Medical Officer undergoes Specialization, she/he gets posted to the General/Military Hospital as applicable. But on record, he/she is a Medical Officer. And GoI and MoF are simply unwilling to shell out money that shall be needed to be paid out if, to make up the shortfall, vacancies were increased to 8000.
Similarly, as you increase your Su-30s, your total authorized vacancies are fixed. You can not increase them without GoI and MoD/MoF sanction. Where do you get the people? Similarly, as you increase the number of platforms that are using greater fuel, their allocation if from overall allocation of fuel for the financial years. There is no supplementary allocation in peace time - ever. Infact, MoF may nudge MoD to nudge the forces to 'save' money by cutting down on fuel expenditure. Happens quite often
I agree. Theoretical versus practical!
I hope it changes once the IAF sees J-20s zipping around in Tibet in 2 years's time.
what i am thinking (which may be completely wrong)
IAF is moving completely away from the russian aircraft and will buy them only for tokenism
mig 29 will be replaced by mk2
mig 21 and 27 by mk1a
medium class (heavier side rafale or typhoon)
lighter side (f16 or gripen)
numbers will be provided by indian mk1a and mk2
amca will replace sukhoi series
and navy will certainly go for f18 due to political deal
(so that we can keep uncle happy)
so ii am not seeing any russian aircraft apart from few token squadron of pakfa.
so after 2 decade iaf will have completely different look and operation philosophy
IAF is moving completely away from the russian aircraft and will buy them only for tokenism
mig 29 will be replaced by mk2
mig 21 and 27 by mk1a
medium class (heavier side rafale or typhoon)
lighter side (f16 or gripen)
numbers will be provided by indian mk1a and mk2
amca will replace sukhoi series
and navy will certainly go for f18 due to political deal
(so that we can keep uncle happy)
so ii am not seeing any russian aircraft apart from few token squadron of pakfa.
so after 2 decade iaf will have completely different look and operation philosophy
Look at the Rafale GTG's timeline. We signed in 2016, but the offsets program has still not started
Really? DRAL has started producing Falcon 2000 parts, MBDA is involved in many missile projects and of course SAfran in Kaveri.
now outdated engine tech
Really, check a program called Turenne2.
Really? DRAL has started producing Falcon 2000 parts, MBDA is involved in many missile projects and of course SAfran in Kaveri.
now outdated engine tech
Really, check a program called Turenne2.
I think we were speaking about the tech. shared with india, witch is not so outdated if what I hear about the overall performance of the plane is true ( the cost/power/range balance may not be the best anywhere, but is truely excelent in many different flight profiles, wich is good for an "omni"role aircraft)
That is definitely the very definition of M-88 objectives. Turenne 1 & 2 programs are here to prepare 2300K hot engines.
Can you plz put some light at what is exactly happening at Kaveri front and do we have any fixed deadline in sight?