LCA Tejas Mk1 & Mk1A - News and discussions

randomradio said:
Mk2's gonna enter flight testing in 2023 and will see IOC in 2025. That's their plan. So production will begin only after IOC. I also do not agree with that date, so I constantly say IOC in 2027 is more realistic, with squadron induction in 2030. You yourself have read that many times.

And yes, it's considered a new aircraft from the PoV of capability, but not in terms of engineering. Not as much as a whole new aircraft. That's why its flight testing is only 3 or 4 years compared to a full 9 years for AMCA.
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Hence the article by Yusuf Unjhawalla is relevant. Though his solutions aren't. By the looks of it, there aren't any solutions worth considering. All of them have pitfalls or are classic Catch 22 situations.

Let's consider the following points -

  1. By 2022-23 we'd be retiring nearly 200 MiG 21 & MiG 27. This is in addition to the nearly 200 - 300 MiG 23 , MiG 21 & MiG 27 , we've already retired in the last 1 decade. That's nearly 400-500 such FA.
  2. The Jaguar upgrades aren't getting much traction besides DARIN -III. The engine upgradation plans have been killed. The only hope seems to be to keep it going with the Jags we've obtsined from France and possibly the UK & Oman.
  3. The Super Sukhoi???
  4. The Mirage Upgrades will be complete within the next 2-3 years.
  5. In the next 4-5 years, all we'd have is 18 Su 30 MKI and 28-31 MiG 29.
  6. 36 Rafales
  7. 40 LCA Mk 1.
  8. I'm not counting the 8-10 Mk 1a which may or may not be available by 2023-24.
  9. Which brings me to the same old question I've been posing since 2014-15. Where are the nos going to come from in the interim?
  10. If we go in for direct imports of F-16 thru the G2G FMS route, we may get a good 30-40 by 2023-24 with the rest to be MII , of what's essentially a decent jet but fast reaching obsolescence FA with not much scope for upgradation & with so many strings attached courtesy an unreliable & totally unscrupulous strategic partner. Not worth it.
  11. Which leaves us with the Gripen E . Which in essence would be an MWF before the MWF actually materialises, when it does plus / minus a few points. It may also spell the death knell of the MWF.
  12. Then there are the Ruskies.
  13. Or we go in for jugaad. Scrounge around the world over for all the M2K & MiG29 worth flying and upgrade them pronto.
 
_Anonymous_ said:
Hence the article by Yusuf Unjhawalla is relevant. Though his solutions aren't. By the looks of it, there aren't any solutions worth considering. All of them have pitfalls or are classic Catch 22 situations.

Let's consider the following points -

  1. By 2022-23 we'd be retiring nearly 200 MiG 21 & MiG 27. This is in addition to the nearly 200 - 300 MiG 23 , MiG 21 & MiG 27 , we've already retired in the last 1 decade. That's nearly 400-500 such FA.
  2. The Jaguar upgrades aren't getting much traction besides DARIN -III. The engine upgradation plans have been killed. The only hope seems to be to keep it going with the Jags we've obtsined from France and possibly the UK & Oman.
  3. The Super Sukhoi???
  4. The Mirage Upgrades will be complete within the next 2-3 years.
  5. In the next 4-5 years, all we'd have is 18 Su 30 MKI and 28-31 MiG 29.
  6. 36 Rafales
  7. 40 LCA Mk 1.
  8. I'm not counting the 8-10 Mk 1a which may or may not be available by 2023-24.
  9. Which brings me to the same old question I've been posing since 2014-15. Where are the nos going to come from in the interim?
  10. If we go in for direct imports of F-16 thru the G2G FMS route, we may get a good 30-40 by 2023-24 with the rest to be MII , of what's essentially a decent jet but fast reaching obsolescence FA with not much scope for upgradation & with so many strings attached courtesy an unreliable & totally unscrupulous strategic partner. Not worth it.
  11. Which leaves us with the Gripen E . Which in essence would be an MWF before the MWF actually materialises, when it does plus / minus a few points. It may also spell the death knell of the MWF.
  12. Then there are the Ruskies.
  13. Or we go in for jugaad. Scrounge around the world over for all the M2K & MiG29 worth flying and upgrade them pronto.
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pardon me to come in between the discussion, but i am just thinking that if we are pitching so hard to sell tejas then for sure we wont be buying any of its actual competitors. so i think we are left with point 13 as an option unless each rafale is equivalent to 4 ex/retired aircrafts.
 
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_Anonymous_ said:
Hence the article by Yusuf Unjhawalla is relevant. Though his solutions aren't. By the looks of it, there aren't any solutions worth considering. All of them have pitfalls or are classic Catch 22 situations.

Let's consider the following points -

  1. By 2022-23 we'd be retiring nearly 200 MiG 21 & MiG 27. This is in addition to the nearly 200 - 300 MiG 23 , MiG 21 & MiG 27 , we've already retired in the last 1 decade. That's nearly 400-500 such FA.
  2. The Jaguar upgrades aren't getting much traction besides DARIN -III. The engine upgradation plans have been killed. The only hope seems to be to keep it going with the Jags we've obtsined from France and possibly the UK & Oman.
  3. The Super Sukhoi???
  4. The Mirage Upgrades will be complete within the next 2-3 years.
  5. In the next 4-5 years, all we'd have is 18 Su 30 MKI and 28-31 MiG 29.
  6. 36 Rafales
  7. 40 LCA Mk 1.
  8. I'm not counting the 8-10 Mk 1a which may or may not be available by 2023-24.
  9. Which brings me to the same old question I've been posing since 2014-15. Where are the nos going to come from in the interim?
  10. If we go in for direct imports of F-16 thru the G2G FMS route, we may get a good 30-40 by 2023-24 with the rest to be MII , of what's essentially a decent jet but fast reaching obsolescence FA with not much scope for upgradation & with so many strings attached courtesy an unreliable & totally unscrupulous strategic partner. Not worth it.
  11. Which leaves us with the Gripen E . Which in essence would be an MWF before the MWF actually materialises, when it does plus / minus a few points. It may also spell the death knell of the MWF.
  12. Then there are the Ruskies.
  13. Or we go in for jugaad. Scrounge around the world over for all the M2K & MiG29 worth flying and upgrade them pronto.
Click to expand...
There is no catch 22.

The only short term issue IAF faces is the ability to maintain 32-33 sqd till 2024-25. Which can be done by 1-2 more sqd of Rafale and one sqd of Mig-29/Mirage 2000. Not a big ask. Post-2025, everything is addition be it MMRCA 2 or MWF.

LCA mk2/MWF fighter is a necessity because AMCA cannot go to production before 2032. Also, we need a minimum single-engine aircrafts as the workhorse.
 
_Anonymous_ said:
Hence the article by Yusuf Unjhawalla is relevant. Though his solutions aren't. By the looks of it, there aren't any solutions worth considering. All of them have pitfalls or are classic Catch 22 situations.

Let's consider the following points -

  1. By 2022-23 we'd be retiring nearly 200 MiG 21 & MiG 27. This is in addition to the nearly 200 - 300 MiG 23 , MiG 21 & MiG 27 , we've already retired in the last 1 decade. That's nearly 400-500 such FA.
  2. The Jaguar upgrades aren't getting much traction besides DARIN -III. The engine upgradation plans have been killed. The only hope seems to be to keep it going with the Jags we've obtsined from France and possibly the UK & Oman.
  3. The Super Sukhoi???
  4. The Mirage Upgrades will be complete within the next 2-3 years.
  5. In the next 4-5 years, all we'd have is 18 Su 30 MKI and 28-31 MiG 29.
  6. 36 Rafales
  7. 40 LCA Mk 1.
  8. I'm not counting the 8-10 Mk 1a which may or may not be available by 2023-24.
  9. Which brings me to the same old question I've been posing since 2014-15. Where are the nos going to come from in the interim?
  10. If we go in for direct imports of F-16 thru the G2G FMS route, we may get a good 30-40 by 2023-24 with the rest to be MII , of what's essentially a decent jet but fast reaching obsolescence FA with not much scope for upgradation & with so many strings attached courtesy an unreliable & totally unscrupulous strategic partner. Not worth it.
  11. Which leaves us with the Gripen E . Which in essence would be an MWF before the MWF actually materialises, when it does plus / minus a few points. It may also spell the death knell of the MWF.
  12. Then there are the Ruskies.
  13. Or we go in for jugaad. Scrounge around the world over for all the M2K & MiG29 worth flying and upgrade them pronto.
Click to expand...

We have discussed all of this millions of times on two different forums.

IAF needs 500-600 aircraft, with at least 300-350 aircraft signed up before Modi's second term is over. And we are getting to that 300-350 new aircraft with 83 more LCAs, 72 Rafales, 21+12 Mig-29/Su-30 and 114 MMRCA. That's 302 jets for now. This will be followed up by 6 squadrons of MWF (118) and possibly 3 squadrons of PAK FA (63). That will bring in 181 more jets.

However all of this will take years to happen. If you add in options for MWF and MMRCA, we are talking about 2032-37 before all these programs complete and AMCA and other next gen jets start coming in. That's why Yusuf's article is pointless. We need at least 500-600 4th gen jets before we even start thinking of PAK FA, AMCA etc. 123 LCA, 200 MWF and 200 Rafale is our ticket to that ride in the next 15 years. And only after that come 50-100 PAK FA and 200+ AMCA and whatever else.

In the meantime, between now and 2024, there's very little we can do. At best, we will have just 2 Mk1A squadrons, 2.5 Rafale squadrons and 1 Mig-29 squadron. Before MMRCA and MWF start delivery, we will at the very best continue to maintain 31 or 32 squadrons until 2027.

The F-16 is a downgrade for us, not an upgrade. Plus the Americans have no interest in ToT. The Gripen E is an upgrade. But it makes less sense to invest in something that will take the same time to come in as the MWF. The jet may become available before MWF, but by the time we get a production deal done and start production, the MWF production will also have begun. GTG for either jet doesn't make sense. It's so much better to go for more Rafale instead. The technology input the French can provide through offsets will be far superior compared to the Americans or Swedes, and the French plan to make more Rafales in India itself.

Jugaad doesn't work as well as you think. We will still have to pay a lot of money to make it IAF compatible. For example, the 60 Taiwanese M2000s are already 20+ years old and need a full round of upgrades. The same with the UAE's Mirages. And these upgrades will also take 5+ years to finish.
 
Ashwin said:
There is no catch 22.

The only short term issue IAF faces is the ability to maintain 32-33 sqd till 2024-25. Which can be done by 1-2 more sqd of Rafale and one sqd of Mig-29/Mirage 2000. Not a big ask. Post-2025, everything is addition be it MMRCA 2 or MWF.

LCA mk2/MWF fighter is a necessity because AMCA cannot go to production before 2032. Also, we need a minimum single-engine aircrafts as the workhorse.
Click to expand...

randomradio said:
In the meantime, between now and 2024, there's very little we can do. At best, we will have just 2 Mk1A squadrons, 2.5 Rafale squadrons and 1 Mig-29 squadron. Before MMRCA and MWF start delivery, we will at the very best continue to maintain 31 or 32 squadrons until 2027.
Click to expand...

That's precisely my point . The period between 2019- 2024/28. Look at the way events are unfolding in our immediate & extended neighborhood. Look at the way the Kashmir issue will be a year from now.

Gentlemen, a clear & present danger stares us in our face now. N-O-W !!

Not a decade down the line. This is precisely the time the IAF is undergoing a major downgrade for reasons we all know and needn't get into for that will take this discussion off on another tangent.


randomradio said:
Jugaad doesn't work as well as you think. We will still have to pay a lot of money to make it IAF compatible. For example, the 60 Taiwanese M2000s are already 20+ years old and need a full round of upgrades. The same with the UAE's Mirages. And these upgrades will also take 5+ years to finish.
Click to expand...


In view of what I've posted above, this to my mind is the best alternative. Seek those jets, evaluate it, sign the Goddamn deal and upgrade it ASAP. You don't need any acclimatisation or special training or even evolve special tactics for them. The IAF should be as familiar with it as mother's milk.
 
HAL readies new variant of Tejas ahead of maiden flight...
HAL readies new variant of Tejas ahead of maiden flight
SP21 writeup.jpg
 
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_Anonymous_ said:
That's precisely my point . The period between 2019- 2024/28. Look at the way events are unfolding in our immediate & extended neighborhood. Look at the way the Kashmir issue will be a year from now.

Gentlemen, a clear & present danger stares us in our face now. N-O-W !!

Not a decade down the line. This is precisely the time the IAF is undergoing a major downgrade for reasons we all know and needn't get into for that will take this discussion off on another tangent.


In view of what I've posted above, this to my mind is the best alternative. Seek those jets, evaluate it, sign the Goddamn deal and upgrade it ASAP. You don't need any acclimatisation or special training or even evolve special tactics for them. The IAF should be as familiar with it as mother's milk.
Click to expand...

Nothing much can be done though.

UAE is not interested in selling their M2Ks right now. Taiwan is also a few years away from doing that since they are yet to sign and get the F-16 B70 that they have ordered. Qatar is the same, they are not selling either, but they have only 12. So it's a no-go there for more M2Ks. France plans to upgrade a lot of their own M2Ks. They will only give us 2 M2K trainers to make up for attrition. So that's about it. Anyway, IAF is not interested in operating second hand jets.

For everything else, the only possibilities are more Mk1As and Rafales, which we are going for anyway.

To make up for the lack of aircraft, the IAF is planning on making changes to their tactics for the next decade. In case of a two-front war, they will position 20 squadrons against PAF and 10 against PLAAF. They will then focus on wiping out PAF in the first week, while playing defence against PLAAF during the time. Once PAF is out of the picture, they will shift their focus on PLAAF with whatever's left. In the meantime, we will also induct a lot of UCAVs and attack helicopters, which will release fighter jets for more important missions, while the helis and UCAVs focus on supporting troops. The S-400 will also release a lot of fighter jets from air defence duties.

The only thing that actually works in our favour is that China is also not prepared for war with India. Their main focus is East Asia and the SCS. They have only 50+ air defence jets facing us in 2 regiments. Most of their aircraft capable of operating in Tibet are mostly air defence jets like J-11A and J-10A, with limited or no strike capability. And these jets are far too inferior to be of real threat to us. By 2027, we will have 4 squadrons of MKIs, 2 squadrons of LCA Mk1A and 2 squadrons of Rafale in our Northeast.

And the PAF cannot match IAF's build up. Just those 4 Rafale squadrons alone will give us a massive asymmetric advantage. And this is after considering we have asymmetric advantage today even without the Rafales. The difference will only increase once the I-Derby ER is integrated with the MKI in the next 2 years.
 
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randomradio said:
Nothing much can be done though.

UAE is not interested in selling their M2Ks right now. Taiwan is also a few years away from doing that since they are yet to sign and get the F-16 B70 that they have ordered. Qatar is the same, they are not selling either, but they have only 12. So it's a no-go there for more M2Ks. France plans to upgrade a lot of their own M2Ks. They will only give us 2 M2K trainers to make up for attrition. So that's about it. Anyway, IAF is not interested in operating second hand jets.

For everything else, the only possibilities are more Mk1As and Rafales, which we are going for anyway.

To make up for the lack of aircraft, the IAF is planning on making changes to their tactics for the next decade. In case of a two-front war, they will position 20 squadrons against PAF and 10 against PLAAF. They will then focus on wiping out PAF in the first week, while playing defence against PLAAF during the time. Once PAF is out of the picture, they will shift their focus on PLAAF with whatever's left. In the meantime, we will also induct a lot of UCAVs and attack helicopters, which will release fighter jets for more important missions, while the helis and UCAVs focus on supporting troops. The S-400 will also release a lot of fighter jets from air defence duties.

The only thing that actually works in our favour is that China is also not prepared for war with India. Their main focus is East Asia and the SCS. They have only 50+ air defence jets facing us in 2 regiments. Most of their aircraft capable of operating in Tibet are mostly air defence jets like J-11A and J-10A, with limited or no strike capability. And these jets are far too inferior to be of real threat to us. By 2027, we will have 4 squadrons of MKIs, 2 squadrons of LCA Mk1A and 2 squadrons of Rafale in our Northeast.

And the PAF cannot match IAF's build up. Just those 4 Rafale squadrons alone will give us a massive asymmetric advantage. And this is after considering we have asymmetric advantage today even without the Rafales. The difference will only increase once the I-Derby ER is integrated with the MKI in the next 2 years.
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Short long story - between now & 2026-28 if severe hostilities break out , we will do exactly what we did 2 decades ago.

What did we do 2 decades ago , you ask?

I'm glad you asked.

"We will fight with what we have " - Gen V. P. Malik ( 1999 - Kargil War)

Plus les choses changent plus elles sont identiques.
 
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_Anonymous_ said:
That's precisely my point . The period between 2019- 2024/28. Look at the way events are unfolding in our immediate & extended neighborhood. Look at the way the Kashmir issue will be a year from now.

Gentlemen, a clear & present danger stares us in our face now. N-O-W !!

Not a decade down the line. This is precisely the time the IAF is undergoing a major downgrade for reasons we all know and needn't get into for that will take this discussion off on another tangent.
Click to expand...
_Anonymous_ said:
Short long story - between now & 2026-28 if severe hostilities break out , we will do exactly what we did 2 decades ago.
Click to expand...
We are not any special situation here (for a doomsday conflict).

Quality of our inventory has increased substantially compared to a decade ago. In Kargil days, all the fighters were geared towards its specific role. Thus the 42 squadron number was relevant. In five years 90% of our fleet will be multi-role capable. Thus it can make up for numbers. Another part of the equation is the operational availability. That problem no longer exists. (Which was showcased during Gagan shakti exercise.)
 
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Ashwin said:
We are not any special situation here (for a doomsday conflict).

Quality of our inventory has increased substantially compared to a decade ago. In Kargil days, all the fighters were geared towards the specific role. Thus the 42 squadron number was relevant. In five years 90% of our fleet will be multi-role capable. Thus it can make up for numbers. Another part of the equation is the operational availability. That problem no longer exists. (Which was showcased during Gagan shakti exercise.)
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It's a matter of perception @Doomsday Scenario. I'd leave it at that. In 5 years a lot can happen across our borders. Our enemies aren't going to give us the luxury of facing the best our money can buy or deploy.

As far as Op Gaganshakti goes ,I wouldn't be too gung ho if I were you.You've Feb 27 before you and the flurry of purchases of WVRAAM & BVRAAM which followed. Pre Op Gaganshakti , where all these would have been wargamed or should have, may I remark.Having said that, It's a good reference point though.
 
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_Anonymous_ said:
Short long story - between now & 2026-28 if severe hostilities break out , we will do exactly what we did 2 decades ago.

What did we do 2 decades ago , you ask?

I'm glad you asked.

"We will fight with what we have " - Gen V. P. Malik ( 1999 - Kargil War)

Plus les choses changent plus elles sont identiques.
Click to expand...

Not quite.

It's a problem only when it comes to a two-front war. When it comes to Pakistan alone, we are overkill. That's also why we have joined the war rhetoric train now, with calls for taking back PoJK. During Kargil, the army was in a poor condition and the air force did not have matching technology for the time, even if the PAF was worse off.

Now the situation is very different from Kargil. In just 2 or 3 years, even the army will be overkill against Pakistan.
 
randomradio said:
Not quite.

It's a problem only when it comes to a two-front war. When it comes to Pakistan alone, we are overkill. That's also why we have joined the war rhetoric train now, with calls for taking back PoJK. During Kargil, the army was in a poor condition and the air force did not have matching technology for the time, even if the PAF was worse off.

Now the situation is very different from Kargil. In just 2 or 3 years, even the army will be overkill against Pakistan.
Click to expand...


I agree with you. Why didn't I see the clarity earlier ?
 
Shekhar Singh said:
LRDE is going for LSP of uttam AESA as per other forum.
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Article in Irdw says Hal hinting ELTA for mk1A will be of higher derivative..

Are they indirectly indicating the comparison happened between ELTA 2052 vs Uttam is between the elta 2052 of Jaguar with small antenna and Uttam with big antenna in Tejas..

Man it's getting complicated.
 
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