Line of Actual Control (LAC) : India & Tibet Border Updates

[DivineHeretic]

There is no reason to believe the figures of Chinese casualties posted here and on social media. At best that number reflects troops with all forms of injuries requiring first aid. Let that sink in.

The Indian groups on both occasions were categorically outnumbered and outmaneuvered. In the first engagement the Chinese had the advantage of numbers, position, surprise and equipment. The Indian party tried to retaliate once they saw the CO collapse but were poorly coordinated and well severely outclassed. The Chinese were also on the hill slope overseeing them, making this a very uneven fight

The next Indian group under the Major came better prepared in terms of equipment, but their actions mounted to little more than a slow moving tragedy without firearms. They had to attack on the up against larger numbers under heavy stone pelting. To their credit they managed to bring a few down right at the beginning of the second clash but there was really no contest. So take those claims of xx numbers of Chinese wounded with a truckload of Himalayan salt.

 

[Saaho]

There is no reason to believe the figures of Chinese casualties posted here and on social media. At best that number reflects troops with all forms of injuries requiring first aid. Let that sink in.

The Indian groups on both occasions were categorically outnumbered and outmaneuvered. In the first engagement the Chinese had the advantage of numbers, position, surprise and equipment. The Indian party tried to retaliate once they saw the CO collapse but were poorly coordinated and well severely outclassed. The Chinese were also on the hill slope overseeing them, making this a very uneven fight

The next Indian group under the Major came better prepared in terms of equipment, but their actions mounted to little more than a slow moving tragedy without firearms. They had to attack on the up against larger numbers under heavy stone pelting. To their credit they managed to bring a few down right at the beginning of the second clash but there was really no contest. So take those claims of xx numbers of Chinese wounded with a truckload of Himalayan salt.

The bigger question is that why are we not having 10 : 1 numeric superiority in a region closer to us than Chinese.

 

[Sulla84]

There is no reason to believe the figures of Chinese casualties posted here and on social media. At best that number reflects troops with all forms of injuries requiring first aid. Let that sink in.

The Indian groups on both occasions were categorically outnumbered and outmaneuvered. In the first engagement the Chinese had the advantage of numbers, position, surprise and equipment. The Indian party tried to retaliate once they saw the CO collapse but were poorly coordinated and well severely outclassed. The Chinese were also on the hill slope overseeing them, making this a very uneven fight

The next Indian group under the Major came better prepared in terms of equipment, but their actions mounted to little more than a slow moving tragedy without firearms. They had to attack on the up against larger numbers under heavy stone pelting. To their credit they managed to bring a few down right at the beginning of the second clash but there was really no contest. So take those claims of xx numbers of Chinese wounded with a truckload of Himalayan salt.

What next... Looks like China will not move from Indian side of Galwan valley..

 

[LoneWolfSandeep]

Seems like a fistfight gone out of control on a ridge, which eventually resulted in the ridge collapsing.
What the sequence of events seem to be (leaving out any speculation part, stating only whats confirmed from various authentic sources)

- Patrol party of 16 Bihar Regiment, went to check compliance of agreement of Patrol point 16, which they found was not done by PLA & were blocking the path on the ridge, pushing & shoving started, possible rods in play, once the first fatalities happened, most likely was the CO, there was no way to stop the fight which followed later for some time.
- India troops called in second patrol party, which quickly arrived, and so did Chinese Second Patrol party shortly afterwards.
- Eventually the Rigde collapsed, many from both sides fell.
- 3 Indian troops were dead before reaching hospital, 17 died of injuries later due to fight/fall/sub zero temp of overnight, before they were rescued. Many fell in river & got out later or fell to injuries.
- Chinese side too fell of ridge, there CO too died, river flows towards India side, 43 Dead chinese soldiers were counted , Chinese Helicopters were allowed to fly inside India to pick up dead & injured
- With the ridge collapsed, the remaining Indian soldiers on other side was released by Chinese, just like we allowed them to pick up dead & injured.
- Other than 20 soldiers confirmed dead on our side, 3 are still missing, chinese dont claim to have them, possible yet to recover from river.
- Similarly 43 Chinese Dead was found, few more may be found later as the river flows

 

[Sunnylol]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1272829603321507840

I dont follow Pravin Sawhney or Ghazala.. but today's circumstances made me go there for a different perspective
What Sawhney says is right.. LAC is a military line, amenable to change via military force.. and we have ITBP and SSB being primarily responsible for holding this line.. You might say that Chinese border guards patrol the LAC and not PLA. But, if it was India, buildig permanent structures in gray zones, and pushing the LAC, PLA would have taken complete control..

This was the first time, Hindu nationalists were truly tested against China.. China wont stop until india agrees to be a vassal state, and accepts BRI, and gives up any great power aspirations. This is a welcome time for Hindus to introspect, whether we have the "Will to power".. The power differential between India and China is much lesser than the power differential between China and the US during the korean war. US could have won had it deployed massively on the scale that China did. But, the US was not ready for the costs and settled for a draw..

This is not something that was unexpected, it was known China would get aggressive as and when we would build roads in border areas. Both sides mean business since 2014 and Doklam is proof! Let the leadership decide if they want to fight now or 2-3 yrs down the line in more favourable conditions. The kind of hyperventilating I am seeing here today, I don't know what you guys would do once war breaks out and coffins start coming back in hundreds, even for a Pulwama against Pakistan the response time was 2 weeks. Expect a longer response time in this case. As for Sawhney, he is pretty much part of the Chinese psyops operation. Otherwise, no Indian journo would get access to their facilities. Don't forget there has been casualties on the other side too. They have to be superhumans not sustain casualties there. I remember Sawhney tweeting that India doesn't require holding corps in a war with China. Do you see what he is doing there? Trying to impregnate faulty ideas in the Indian psyche

 

[jetray]

What next... Looks like China will not move from Indian side of Galwan valley..

well thats the idea, they are giving us a fait accompli. Grab & hold and continue creeping up our territory. Unless we move a lot more troops and outnumber them things will not change.

 

[Sulla84]

, I don't know what you guys would do once war breaks out and coffins

I wont mind at all. IA men are dying anyway..

well thats the idea, they are giving us a fait accompli. Grab & hold and continue creeping up our territory. Unless we move a lot more troops and outnumber them things will not change.

What if they still dont move.. Doklam was a holding operation.. Galwan would be a eviction operation.. which requires a lot more balls..

 

[Quicksilver]

what first aid can save you when you fall from the heights of the himalayas into a river at sub zero temps? the chinese twitter account only feeding the the useful idiots both sides of the border.

And think of Xi's position - why hasnt he sent massive force and settled for a bloody nose? despite the huge difference in strength, he still fighting with sticks and stones?

 

[Saaho]

This is not something that was unexpected, it was known China would get aggressive as and when we would build roads in border areas. Both sides mean business since 2014 and Doklam is proof! Let the leadership decide if they want to fight now or 2-3 yrs down the line in more favourable conditions. The kind of hyperventilating I am seeing here today, I don't know what you guys would do once war breaks out and coffins start coming back in hundreds, even for a Pulwama against Pakistan the response time was 2 weeks. Expect a longer response time in this case. As for Sawhney, he is pretty much part of the Chinese psyops operation. Otherwise, no Indian journo would get access to their facilities. Don't forget there has been casualties on the other side too. They have to be superhumans not sustain casualties there. I remember Sawhney tweeting that India doesn't require holding corps in a war with China. Do you see what he is doing there? Trying to impregnate faulty ideas in the Indian psyche

The problem is this :
1. Soldiers are not allowed to fight but being beaten.

2. Despite of all what has happened, we are still seeing words like "peace" "trunquility" "de-escalation" "diffuse" from our official spokesperson. No such overtures were made from the other side.

I don't know about you, but to me it has a ring of Operation Barbarossa except our Stalin has not been preparing like its 1941 nor we have a Stavka but a South block manned by career beaurocrats with tiffin carriers.

 

[jetray]

What if they still dont move..

In all possibility thats what will happen, its no different from past. We are too late in the game very stupid to say the least. No way chinese will come and put up tent to give it on a platter they are prepared and have a plan. While we are just feeling around.

And think of Xi's position - why hasnt he sent massive force and settled for a bloody nose? despite the huge difference in strength, he still fighting with sticks and stones?

I dont they can fight a full scale war, it also gives us chance to retaliate strongly destroying their infra and go after highways connecting to POK. They always try to bully and get their way through.

 

[GASOLINE_ON_FIRE]

The bigger question is that why are we not having 10 : 1 numeric superiority in a region closer to us than Chinese.

That could be logically answered: our infrastructure doesn't support large scale mobilization. Even though the ball is in GOI's court, the move to further escalate should be taken while keeping clear final goals in mind. Think pragmatically. Some tough questions:
>Is our infrastructure built to the fullest extent? NO
>If we go to war with whatever infrastructure we currently have, will we win? Can be answered only by the planners. But pr(LOSS)>pr(WIN).
>With the rapid buildup in infrastructure on our side, will we be in a significantly better position in 2 to 3 years from now? Absolutely YES.
>Will you want to go to war now with inadequate supply routes and weak infrastructure? or will you go tor war some years later from now when our infrastructure will be significantly stronger? I would choose the latter as that offers better chance of winning. But thats just my opinion and I am not privy to all the facts.
>If we go to war right now and loose more territory due to inadequate supply lines and infrastructure, what will we do then?

Some points that posters here need to understand:
>China is testing our resolve because they know the reality of our weakness in supporting large troop buildup.
>As time goes on and India improves its border infrastructure, the window of handing a conclusive military defeat to India is closing fast. Such desperation to turn to violence seems to stem from this growing realization.
>Any war in which you are forced into, you are already at a disadvantage.
>The way China keeps pressuring and needling us, we can turn the tables and start to pressure them once our infrastructure is developed to the fullest. Start minor incursions into tibet from all sides starting somewhere in 2023 and increase the tempo as years go by. Start land grabbing only when the infrastructure buildup is complete. Create tensions in undisputed areas too if you want.
>Resolve all the bickering in the domestic industry and induct LCH and LUH in large numbers. Improve and upgrade all the T72s, BMPs and deploy them all along the border with China. All the while induct more artillery and start to acclimatize troops in hundreds of thousands.
>Topple the communists in Nepal, bring in a more friendly administration.

Sure, on the other hand an opportunity like this, where the entire world is against China and China is the aggressor in a conflict, come rarely. But, depending on external support to win a war with them is not a wise way to think.

 

[Saaho]

That could be logically answered: our infrastructure doesn't support large scale mobilization. Even though the ball is in GOI's court, the move to further escalate should be taken while keeping clear final goals in mind. Think pragmatically. Some tough questions:
>Is our infrastructure built to the fullest extent? NO
>If we go to war with whatever infrastructure we currently have, will we win? Can be answered only by the planners. But pr(LOSS)>pr(WIN).
>With the rapid buildup in infrastructure on our side, will we be in a significantly better position in 2 to 3 years from now? Absolutely YES.
>Will you want to go to war now with inadequate supply routes and weak infrastructure? or will you go tor war some years later from now when our infrastructure will be significantly stronger? I would choose the latter as that offers better chance of winning. But thats just my opinion and I am not privy to all the facts.
>If we go to war right now and loose more territory due to inadequate supply lines and infrastructure, what will we do then?

Some points that posters here need to understand:
>China is testing our resolve because they know the reality of our weakness in supporting large troop buildup.
>As time goes on and India improves its border infrastructure, the window of handing a conclusive military defeat to India is closing fast. Such desperation to turn to violence seems to stem from this growing realization.
>Any war in which you are forced into, you are already at a disadvantage.
>The way China keeps pressuring and needling us, we can turn the tables and start to pressure them once our infrastructure is developed to the fullest. Start minor incursions into tibet from all sides starting somewhere in 2023 and increase the tempo as years go by. Start land grabbing only when the infrastructure buildup is complete. Create tensions in undisputed areas too if you want.
>Resolve all the bickering in the domestic industry and induct LCH and LUH in large numbers. Improve and upgrade all the T72s, BMPs and deploy them all along the border with China. All the while induct more artillery and start to acclimatize troops in hundreds of thousands.
>Topple the communists in Nepal, bring in a more friendly administration.

Sure, on the other hand an opportunity like this, where the entire world is against China and China is the aggressor in a conflict, come rarely. But, depending on external support to win a war with them is not a wise way to think.

I don't think its a question of infra. The place where this incidence happened has no roads nothing. We have an air strip near by.

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

Since the Chinese casualties are more
We can now expect the Chinese to start FIRING whenever they see an Indian Patrol

ROE are dead

 

[Quicksilver]

Since the Chinese casualties are more
We can now expect the Chinese to start FIRING whenever they see an Indian Patrol

ROE are dead

no confirmation on number of chinese casualties.
no confirmaion if the deaths are through bullet wounds or the geography/climate.

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

no confirmation on number of chinese casualties.
no confirmaion if the deaths are through bullet wounds or the geography/climate.

If the Chinese were so CONFIDENT of their strength , they would have started
Firing and shelling by now

Their casualties will give them a reality Check

Ambushing our soldiers was easy for them

But the real.war starts now

 

[Jaymax]

What next... Looks like China will not move from Indian side of Galwan valley..

I have a sinking feeling we will let this slide. Our messaging has been no shots fired, we want tranquility

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

I have a sinking feeling we will let this slide. Our messaging has been no shots fired, we want tranquility

Our Aim is Chinese withdrawl

If China withdraws now , they accept defeat and their 43 casualties

But if they dont , Will the fire the first shot

Are they confident of a shoooting war

If they were confident , why this stupid ambush on our patrol

This active LAC will hurt them a lot

We have the.manpower and shorter supply lines

 

[Saaho]

We have the.manpower and shorter supply lines

we also have damn dabba wallas. bane of our existance.

 

[safriz]

Ok... I didn't read the whole thread, but how come so many casualties when both sides don't use any weapons against each other?

 

[Saaho]

Ok... I didn't read the whole thread, but how come so many casualties when both sides don't use any weapons against each other?

No clear picture.
What scanty details emerging says most deaths are due to people falling off a ridge or ridge collapsing.
It could be anything. Only confirmed news is 20 deaths on Indian side. Rest is all rumor.