The Chinese have to make an alliance if they have to take on Murica. The sooner they realise the better for them. They need more Pakistans which are more financially independent. They have Iran and Turkey two strong players that can be set up as allies but the Chinese have been always sceptical of muslim nations. The Russians will never be the party that is lead unless Putin is removed and China can successfully plant a puppet in Russia. Whoever wins the bid for the future of Russia might end up being the winner of the next cold war. Putin is just delaying the inevitable...
Line of Actual Control (LAC) : India & Tibet Border Updates
- Thread starter Shashank
- Start date
For some reason, only India thinks that it can take on China single handedly. Foolhardy to say the least.
The Quad on the lines of NATO is a must.
That is inevitable but without India the Americans cannot take on China and without America we cannot take on China. It's a marriage of convenience which is presently in the wooing stage.
Yeah. Unfortunately neither side will move unless they are forced by circumstances.
China has already started arming Pakistan. The goal there is quite self-evident.
Then there's Iran. With the massive $400B 5-year investment China is planning, this will change the game completely in the ME.
Erdogan used to constantly attack China on the concentration camps in Xinjiang, but now has made a complete U-turn. So what's happening there is also quite evident.
The small Central Asian states can't beat China, so the age-old adage, if you can't beat 'em, then join 'em, comes into play.
With Pakistan, Iran, Turkey and CA firmly in Chinese camp, that's secured their western front to a significant degree.
The next step would be to put India in its place and completely eliminate the threat to its western front. It could be by the way of a carrot and stick approach or by going to war. Their goal would be to take away Ladakh from India, thereby putting immense pressure due to the lack of our strategic depth in the mountains.
The next step is to have a non-aggression pact with Russia. The deal being China will buy resources from Russia, use Russia as a transit country into Europe and assist them in dealing with the threats in the Russian south (which will help their new alliance with Turkey and Iran as well) in exchange for a peaceful Russian-Chinese border. Since China has to deal with the US, this also works in Russia's favour. The Chinese will use their expansionist interest in Siberia to blackmail Russia and keep them in check, the carrot and stick approach.
Their expectation is possibly that all of the above can be achieved between 2025-30. And this will free up their resources to counter the Americans and their allies in the Pacific. By 2030, the Chinese expect to match USN presence in the Pacific, and by 2035, they likely expect to surpass it. And by 2049, they expect global domination, by being able to invest as much or more in the navy as any regional or global power in any world ocean.
Neither needs the other. It's good to cooperate since we have a common enemy, but the problem is we do not share wide-ranging common objectives.
It's better for India to sit out of any US-China fight. But it's good if USN helps IN when there's a Sino-India fight, at least until 2030 or so.
The issue with not sharing common objectives is, for example, in case problems come up between Indonesia and Australia in the future, then we will be forced to pick sides instead of being neutral as we'd prefer. Or we will get dragged into a US-Russia fight in the Pacific. Or even in Taiwan. So only the US gains out of this alliance.
To put things in perspective, we have some inconvenience for the next 10 years in the ocean because we cannot match PLAN ship-to-ship with our current resources, which will change by 2030. But we plan to survive as a nation for hundreds if not thousands of years, at least until the next major societal change. So, in order to make up for the small amount of inconvenience in the next 10 years, we shouldn't become constrained by the diktats of other nations for many decades just because they helped us out a little bit now. We can afford the minor inconvenience right now, but we can't afford long term effects on our foreign policy.
Does not matter, the immediate danger is existential. India should have aligned with USA 20 years ago.
Why will US let that happen? If India does not help US in their conflict, US will not help India in their conflict. Best way is to have an iron clad treaty.
Now imagine, if India has to fight a China and Pakistan combined attack with Pakistan ready to go nuclear, what will India do then? Pakistan goes nuclear against India and China beats the shit out of Indian military. Without US help, there is no way India will even survive that war. I see that India will lose all its norther rivers (by losing HP and Kashmir) and a lot of its fertile land in Punjab. The only counter is to ensure US threat on China.
Wars are seldom "ship" to "ship" or aircraft to aircraft or even soldiers to soldiers. In next 10 years, I doubt any more progress will happen in India that has not happened in past 10 years. In case of India its always the next 10 years. There is nothing that is going to happen in next 10 years that will miraculously give us an advantage over China. Rewind the clock 10 years back and see what has happened 10 years hance. At that point 2019 was considered the tipping point of India having a parity with respect to China. That did not materialize. What if nothing at all materialize in coming 10 years? If anything, I believe gap between India and China will widen.
We are weird folks who combine our enemies. Just the opposite of Napoleon.
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No, it's not.
The problem with a treaty is, as I pointed out, it only helps the US. So we are not going to have a treaty alliance, like NATO, we are only going to have a cooperative alliance of sorts with a lot of constraints.
You are overestimating a nuclear war, especially one involving Pakistan.
You haven't considered the significant rate of failure of nukes and their delivery systems, not to mention EW and BMD. And this is not even considering counterforce strikes. And then there's the question of India's sheer size and population. No, a nuclear war won't destroy entire states either.
Anyway, if India is fighting both Pakistan and China, there's less of a chance of nuclear war, since China is not going to be interested in one. Any India China war is very unlikely to go nuclear since neither can threaten each other's main population centers or areas of strategic importance.
You can't consider the past, India was a lower middle income country then and continues to be the same today. But in 10 years, India will be an upper middle income country. And India will enter the league of rich nations only after 10 more years after that. Becoming an upper middle income country is very important, since that's when India will start competing financially with other rich countries like France, Germany and Japan.
Today, with a $6B budget, we can only build 6 destroyer-class ships every decade as a lower MI country. But in 2030, as an upper MI country, we will be able to build 6 destroyers every year. This is what China did since 2010 as an upper MI country, by building a navy that's now almost twice the number of ships as the USN. Pretty much all of it was built within the first 10 years of their status as an upper MI country.
The Chinese built and commissioned 30 Type 054A frigates since 2008 in a 10-year period.
They they transitioned on to the Type 052D destroyers from 2014 and in 6 years have absorbed 25 with more on the way.
From this year they moved on to the Type 055 and will be absorbing at least 8 within the next year or two. Possibly at least 20-25 before 2025.
We will be able to do the same after 2027. Contracts have to go out for NGD and NGF from 2022 onwards.
China’s helping hand to Pak: New surface-to-air missile sites spotted in PoK
According to reports, China is helping Pakistan set up sites for surface-to-air missiles in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.
Its a simple question : Can China-Pakistan coalition annihilate India? Answer is yes, at a significant cost to Pakistan. If so, that will happen.
Not necessarily. Depends upon how the treaty is negotiated. If you align with US against China on all fronts, then US will likely offer protection from China. What will NOT happen is that India keeps herself out of commitment if Russia is involved. That kind of treaty is impossible. But yes, if we commit to fight against China in a possible entangle even involving Russia or Indonesia then such a treaty is possible.
Noteworthy, Russia will keep on supplying weapons --if needed-- to China, in a China - India conflict. Its our hang-over with Russia that is keeping us from seeing the reality.
You cannot negotiate a treaty that leaves Russia out of equation. Its cold war all over again.
Can Pakistan launch a massive nuclear attack against India. Yes it can. If it can, then China will find ways to persuade Pakistan to do so.
India does not have any EW or BMD capabilities. None what so ever. If we had, we would not be seeing our DRDO developed radio getting jammed.
Indian BMDs are only science projects. None of them are operational to any degree of certainty. Certainly not against recent Pakistani ballistic missiles.
Counterforce? Pakistan is a suicidal nation which will do anything if China pays off right people with right amount of money. They believe that they came from Allah and there they will return. Counter anything with respect to Pakistan is a lost argument. They don't care if all of Pakistani die. They will be more than happy to do a lethal damage to India, even if in process they kill themselves.
Lastly, if all you have is this : "but nukes can fail". Then I will say this. Fortunately for Pakistan, their nukes and delivery system are not made in Pakistan.
Here is the deal. In case of India, money is not what stops us from gaining any kind of military capabilities. None what so ever. Its the way we have structured our defence procurement, defence production and defence research.
We do our defence research totally divorced from operational need and produce science projects which are too late and too little.
Consider this : Turd-key -- a totally worthless country-- can produce more than decent ALCM like SOM (rivaling likes of Storm Shadow/SCALP) and drones. In India we have been listening about a land launched CMs since 15 years and nothing has happened till date. Lets not even talk about drones. That Rustam drone has been in news since forever. The rub is India only produces science projects and not weapons. And this is when India's defence budget is about twice that of Turd-key.
Hell its 2020 and all we have in airforce are worthless Russian junk that crash each time Beyonce blushes and 5, yes, 5 modern fighters. We took 20 years to procure those 5 fighters.
Let me remind you that we are not even producing a half way decent rifle for our infantry. We have wonderful Insas with magazine made out of same plastic used to make buckets in homes. Our forces prefer AK-47s captured from terrorists than their own standard issue weapons. India first designed this rifle in 80s. Mass produced it in 90s. And in 2020 no one in OFB can produce a working rifle.
None of these are issues of money. None what so ever. These all are signs of something else. Incompetence and absolute corruption. Indian production houses are filled to brim with incompetence and no amount of money can fix that. Its a bucket with hole in it. No amount of water can fill that.
And you expect me to believe that we will be able to amass any kind of working weapon systems in just 10 years? I don't want to debate that India will be a richer country. All I am saying is that it does not matter. Money and competence are not same thing. India is not going to get any kind of competence any time soon in defence production or procurement for that matter. Not in 10 years. Not even in 100 years. Even if India had 400 trillion dollar economy, its defence will be just like what it is today, may be worse. Money after all just amplifies what a system really is. Incompetence will get amplified.
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As on date its China which needs allies like Pakistan to fight India. India stands alone against China. The day is not very away when we will have to take out Pakistan come what may to deal with China. The day we take out Pakistan, China will settle LAC as per our demands. Chinese play Wei Qi which is about posturing, Indians play Shatranj which is about complete decimation of enemy. So is push comes to shove, its always a Shatranj player who will win as he does moves to win and not to intimidated or mare posturing.
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No. It's best you don't talk about the nuclear angle, you have no clue about the subject.
EW, again, you don't know what you're talking about. As for BMD, it's already been deployed.
Not at all. We simply don't have all the money that we need.
Break down the tech specs, you will see that whatever Turkey produces is stuff the IAF will reject during evaluations. The best that Turkey produces is something the IAF had rejected a decade ago.
Has Turkey got a functioning advanced space program? Has Turkey designed a BMD? Has Turkey got an ASAT program? Has Turkey got an operational SSBN? Has Turkey got IRBMs and ICBMs? You seriously want to compare Turkey's little missile and drone to all of the above?
As on date its China which needs allies like Pakistan to fight India. India stands alone against China. The day is not very away when we will have to take out Pakistan come what may to deal with China. The day we take out Pakistan, China will settle LAC as per our demands. Chinese play Wei Qi which is about posturing, Indians play Shatranj which is about complete decimation of enemy. So is push comes to shove, its always a Shatranj player who will win as he does moves to win and not to intimidated or mare posturing.
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We have stopped punishing Pakistan
As strongly as we did earlier
They need a dose of Spice and Hammer
No one was in doubt that USA can take Afg and dozen more countries at same time on its own. China started this conflict, as expansionist, and now stuck between IA and cold weather, threatening through Global times about PLA and has nothing to show for it. Six months on and can't stare down India.
As on date its China which needs allies like Pakistan to fight India. India stands alone against China. The day is not very away when we will have to take out Pakistan come what may to deal with China. The day we take out Pakistan, China will settle LAC as per our demands. Chinese play Wei Qi which is about posturing, Indians play Shatranj which is about complete decimation of enemy. So is push comes to shove, its always a Shatranj player who will win as he does moves to win and not to intimidated or mare posturing.
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First step should be we start clubbing China and paxtan in Asia. If paxtan is an arm of China then it should not be favored by nations in other camp like Australia, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam etc.
We eliminated two of their Brigs in last six months and you say we are not punishing them enough.
Lets leave everything else aside and stick to this. Shall we? So from 1990 till date, we never had money to develop and produce a decent rifle for infantry? You know, rifle is as basic as it gets. Hell, we are not even able to produce AK-47s locally for infantry.
I challenge you to prove that India lacks money to develop and manufacture a rifle and has been lacking money since 1990 till date. Our forces are still having a stupid INSAS designed in 80s and failed miserably. It cannot take 30 years to retire a broken rifle and replace it with a quality one. It cann't take 10s of billions of dollars to do that, especially in India with labor so cheap. It won't take Phd to manufacture a rifle or operate a metal stamping press. It cann't require AEEESEEEAAAAAA radar technology to produce such a rifle. Its not as captial extensive that India cann't do it. Must be something else. Most likely, incompetence.
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We are forgetting the relationship of France and U.S. India can have a similar or even a more free arrangement with the Americans where we can choose which wars to fight. Similar to the Germans and French who avoided Vietnam but were part of the Gulf war. Also We could very well be a mediator between the Americans and the Russians in a future scenario. We have a lot more cards than we are trying to see.
LAC is not global times or twitter where china can beat the shit out of Indian military , if you think so then you must be a fan of morons like pravin sawhney . LAC is where IA too can pull the neck out of PLA thugs and stand up to them be in terms of infra/troop buildup and do our version of salami slicing (readjustment) .
No, I am not.
However, I have seen enough of quality work from ITI, PWD, DoT etc.
Given that its the same stuff that goes into DRDO, OFB etc, I highly doubt that our forces are getting even halfway decent equipments.
If not anything else then being forced to buy American arms due to some treaty will bring in some much needed quality equipment in the hands of our forces.
I will hate if my life depends upon INSAS, Arjun or Mig-21. I am sure some of our forces are forced to live and fight in such situations.
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