Line of Actual Control (LAC) : India & Tibet Border Updates

Ashwin said:
Not for a barren land for away from home.
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Nope thats a wrong perception, SCS to keep sea lanes open, taiwan is just nationalistic goal as long as they remain subdued or dont declare independence its fine but tibet or xinjiang breaking away is a big loss. If its barren land what are we fighting for ?

Loss of land near ladakh or cutting of access to karakoram highway will isolate them to SCS ( and not to mention resources of the land) which is already surrounded by hostiles. They will simply become russia of asia. This is no longer 1800 to say its icy & barren lets sell the land like russians did.
 
Quicksilver said:
the rs6 CNY to rs 10 CNY data is called cherry picking.

this is the third time I am going to ask.
from your own data, from 2010 to 2015, INR to CNY went from 6.5 to 10.2
then from 2015 to 2010, it went from 10.2 to 10.02
does that tell you the gap is widening?
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There is a reason for cherry picking the data. Kindly see who was the president of US and who was in India when the gap increased.
Quicksilver said:
HK protests,
Britain saying they will award 3 million HK the right to move to Britain
Covid crisis economically
Chinese forex reserves plummeted from 4 trillion to 3 trillion in the last 5 years.
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That will only minutely affect that and it has only started now. After Trump became the president and Boris Jhonson took the post. China is a over 14 trillion dollar economy, and even it lose 2-3 trillion in a go within months, this wouldn't affect them much. But If India loses even few hundred billions , then its a pressure.
 
Sulla84 said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1269922127186190336
Up the escalation ladder.. Rajya sabha tv and not a private channel
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Now we are really needling them, but problem with India is that chinese know we wont actually cross the redline. Even tibetans know that , thats why they dont take India seriously.

Chinese idea is to create a dispute and then extract concessions through negotiation. Where as India is in reactive mode where we immediately start damage control exercise like threatening some thing new for which china will bargain on. As such china is always one step ahead in the game they have not only nullified future threat but also extracted concession. They are pro-active while we are reactive & always on backfoot.



High time we got onto the front foot , pushed china behind the himalayas and snap chini-pak relationship.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1269675847629209601
 
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screambowl said:
That will only minutely affect that and it has only started now. After Trump became the president and Boris Jhonson took the post. China is a over 14 trillion dollar economy, and even it lose 2-3 trillion in a go within months, this wouldn't affect them much. But If India loses even few hundred billions , then its a pressure.
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by that logic every country with dispute with china should just give up. Heck Pakistan should fold up completely in front of India.

Just because no protest videos or news of such things come out of china doesnt mean they dont exist. it just means china controls the news going out of china. what do you think is the need for such control if everything is hunky dory?
 
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jetray said:
Now we are really needling them, but problem with India is that chinese know we wont actually cross the redline. Even tibetans know that , thats why they dont take India seriously.
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To the contrary, we have crossed red line too many times. Abrogating 370 is one. Increasing deployment is another. Continuing border road construction is yet another. Remember, they are used to India that will withdraw.

Don't be surprised if you see a Taiwan India join statement or India allowing some kind of representation from Taiwan just short of actually declaring them to be an independent country.

BTW, I so want to see that stupid Police Park in Delhi to be converted to Taiwanese embassy.
 
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jetray said:
Nope thats a wrong perception, SCS to keep sea lanes open, taiwan is just nationalistic goal as long as they remain subdued or dont declare independence its fine but tibet or xinjiang breaking away is a big loss. If its barren land what are we fighting for ?

Loss of land near ladakh or cutting of access to karakoram highway will isolate them to SCS ( and not to mention resources of the land) which is already surrounded by hostiles. They will simply become russia of asia. This is no longer 1800 to say its icy & barren lets sell the land like russians did.
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Not correct. In both Taiwan and SCS they are claiming things that are not in their possession. Here they have already secured everything 50 years back. Now, The disagreement here is on minor pieces of land. Which is inconsequential in their larger scheme of things. (Also, the discussion you quoted was about PRC going all-in for this)

Where is this 'tibet or xinjiang breaking away' coming from? Ürümqi is 1200km away from Ladakh. In Tibet, we do not have any leverage (Dalai lama's time is limited). A local conflict in aksai chin is gonna blow over to these places? hardly so. If sea access is lost then next priorities would be securing energy access to central Asia and east asian borders before they look to Tibet. Simply because of the population distribution.

Population-distribution-pattern-of-China-in-2015.png


The Karakoram is not the only land access route to the outside. Its just a highway, they have rail access through multiple central Asian stan countries. Dont know how many highways. Karakoram is special only because of it Indian ocean access. It alone simply cannot give its mainland any kind of resource security.

Nunner-route.jpg


And cutting off Karakoram High way is very easy. It has many bridges build at very high altitude. A handful of cruise missiles can blow up it and disabling it for very long time.
 
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Saaho said:
None of us are perfect. BTW, the kind of wars we will see will have very little help from economy.
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"Once NSA doval said, if you are growing with 8% GDP (actual) you are completely secure". You may not need economy to fight a war, but you need economy to come out of the collateral damage of a war. Either you gain huge mineral deposit or huge water resources in Tibet then one can compensate the economic loss.

Quicksilver said:
by that logic every country with dispute with china should just give up. Heck Pakistan should fold up completely in front of India.

Just because no protest videos or news of such things come out of china doesnt mean they dont exist. it just means china controls the news going out of china. what do you think is the need for such control if everything is hunky dory?
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India has not backed off, India is only trying to keep the region stable. Chinese are not unware that any kind of conflict with India will invite US intervention. And I always say big and powerful countries do not engage eachother directly. They do it in third nation.

China is trying to prove that democracy is a failure and communist regime is a success. China supressing any protest is the nature of communism, where as democracy supressing any protest is failure of democracy. They are playing with the mind. If US, UK today suppress the protest by deploying military, China will succeed. This is why Trump perhaps spoke to Modi that how to contain these protests, is deploying military an option.

In India it's normal so China failed and people have already forgotten Delhi tamasha. But in US it's kind of anarchy being brought to defame the democracy and this will have serious implication on India as well because a new debate will start funded by leftists that democracy is a failure.

In Ladakh and tawang you can anytime open up the front, but you need to have a proper stage!
 
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screambowl said:
"Once NSA doval said, if you are growing with 8% GDP (actual) you are completely secure". You may not need economy to fight a war, but you need economy to come out of the collateral damage of a war. Either you gain huge mineral deposit or huge water resources in Tibet then one can compensate the economic loss.



India has not backed off, India is only trying to keep the region stable. Chinese are not unware that any kind of conflict with India will invite US intervention. And I always say big and powerful countries do not engage eachother directly. They do it in third nation.

China is trying to prove that democracy is a failure and communist regime is a success. China supressing any protest is the nature of communism, where as democracy supressing any protest is failure of democracy. They are playing with the mind. If US, UK today suppress the protest by deploying military, China will succeed. This is why Trump perhaps spoke to Modi that how to contain these protests, is deploying military an option.

In India it's normal so China failed and people have already forgotten Delhi tamasha. But in US it's kind of anarchy being brought to defame the democracy and this will have serious implication on India as well because a new debate will start funded by leftists that democracy is a failure.

In Ladakh and tawang you can anytime open up the front, but you need to have a proper stage!
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US or no US, going by Rajnath and Amit Shah 's speech ( and not some mouthpiece like Gobar times the chinese use) it sure looks like Its time for a kinetic response against China...
 
Saaho said:
To the contrary, we have crossed red line too many times. Abrogating 370 is one. Increasing deployment is another. Continuing border road construction is yet another. Remember, they are used to India that will withdraw.

Don't be surprised if you see a Taiwan India join statement or India allowing some kind of representation from Taiwan just short of actually declaring them to be an independent country.

BTW, I so want to see that stupid Police Park in Delhi to be converted to Taiwanese embassy.
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Abrogation of 370 is nothing to do with any other nation, ofcourse no other government has spine to do it. But India never crossed the red line when circumstances demands it. 1999 Kargil war, parliament attack,army cantonment attack, Mumbai terrorist attack,Uri,Pulwama,feb27 are those circumstances. We never shown our military capabilities in proper manner.
 
Ashwin said:
Not correct. In both Taiwan and SCS they are claiming things that are not in their possession. Here they have already secured everything 50 years back. Now, The disagreement here is on minor pieces of land. Which is inconsequential in their larger scheme of things. (Also, the discussion you quoted was about PRC going all-in for this)

Where is this 'tibet or xinjiang breaking away' coming from? Ürümqi is 1200km away from Ladakh. In Tibet, we do not have any leverage (Dalai lama's time is limited). A local conflict in aksai chin is gonna blow over to these places? hardly so. If sea access is lost then next priorities would be securing energy access to central Asia and east asian borders before they look to Tibet. Simply because of the population distribution.

Population-distribution-pattern-of-China-in-2015.png


The Karakoram is not the only land access route to the outside. Its just a highway, they have rail access through multiple central Asian stan countries. Dont know how many highways. Karakoram is special only because of it Indian ocean access. It alone simply cannot give its mainland any kind of resource security.

Nunner-route.jpg


And cutting off Karakoram High way is very easy. It has many bridges build at very high altitude. A handful of cruise missiles can blow up it and disabling it for very long time.
Click to expand...
They have physically secured tibet by demographic change. Their claim on tibet is similar to pakistan's occupation of Kashmir physically secure legally invalid. As you have correctly pointed out in the map coastal china and further hinterland is "China proper" rest of the land including inner mongolia, tibet, xinjiang are not proper chinese territory. Tibet was more less a chinese vassal or protectorate but not part of china. If tibet was part of china then why would chinese & tibetans have treaty with each other ?

One spark in tibet will lead to demand or influence in other regions as well. What makes you think such a powerful country would be afraid of inconsequential powerless man like dalai lama ? Simply bcos they can revolt and cause problems.

When you say dalai lama's time is limited it can cut both ways. Once dalai lama departs either the issue might die down or more violent forces rise up who were earlier weighed down by non violence principles . That will be a bigger headache to china just like xinjiang.


This is even reflected in current chinese administrative divisions.
china-proper-caea114a-420d-4941-b8a7-8a9b2c9a486-resize-750.jpg


Historical proper china.

china-proper-3d3471fb-44e5-4e4f-9d74-6449c216876-resize-750.png



I must have been clear my mistake, Karkoram highway linking pakistan & outlet to arabian sea. If SCS is totally blockaded or war breaks out then only alternate route where they dont have issue is this highway. If SCS and these highways are blocked china will get stuck. Its the same reason why even US wants to contain russia to push them beyond ukraine. They will be left with only one all weather port for trading and totally surrounded. Chinese are one step ahead and trying to ensure that they dont get trapped. Every one knows that their claim in SCS is totally bogus but when your interests are at stake any thing is possible.

Actual war is where one wants to block access to other to curtail them economically , it is a intense open cold war no need for missiles.

kkh.jpg
 
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Saaho said:
To the contrary, we have crossed red line too many times. Abrogating 370 is one. Increasing deployment is another. Continuing border road construction is yet another. Remember, they are used to India that will withdraw.

Don't be surprised if you see a Taiwan India join statement or India allowing some kind of representation from Taiwan just short of actually declaring them to be an independent country.

BTW, I so want to see that stupid Police Park in Delhi to be converted to Taiwanese embassy.
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Yes thats a recent one. Abrogating 370 has made things quite clear about Pakistan occupied kashmir and about ladakh as well. They anticipate problems in the future hence they are trying to consolidate their position right now. I dont think taiwan will declare independence but they might get some sort of indirect recognition. T
 
jetray said:
I must have been clear my mistake, Karkoram highway linking pakistan & outlet to arabian sea. If SCS is totally blockaded or war breaks out then only alternate route where they dont have issue is this highway. If SCS and these highways are blocked china will get stuck. Its the same reason why even US wants to contain russia to push them beyond ukraine. They will be left with only one all weather port for trading and totally surrounded. Chinese are one step ahead and trying to ensure that they dont get trapped. Every one knows that their claim in SCS is totally bogus but when your interests are at stake any thing is possible.

Actual war is where one wants to block access to other to curtail them economically , it is a intense open cold war no need for missiles.
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In the larger scheme of things, Karakoram highway is actually a backup. It passes through disputed area, it is closed for a third of year, it is very vulnerable. A small military party with some explosives can easily take it out of commission for many years. It certainly is not A-game of China as far as connectivity goes. If they had better relations with India, they could have the safest approach bypassing all the other chokepoints. A road via Arunanchal Pradesh connecting to both Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea would have been infinitely better than all this up in the cloud approach via Karakoram highway.
 
Defc0n said:
PLA defined -

https://twitter.com/x/status/1270065231310381059

First time media picks up the onus of screwing China.

Some one plz show it in our neighbour's defence forum people and watch them burn.
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Normally, the senior officers in PLA have all the fun, from making money through corruption to living lavishly but on foot soldier is an unlucky chap following orders and taking all the pain for the master not the country. In IA, the officer soldier relation is way different.
 
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