Pakistan is a dying state.
1.Its economy is permanently compromised.Huge near irreedemable debt,begging bowl politics,agro dependant economy with ever decreasing returns,population explosion.The army controls the economy and wont let go,with retired army generals in charge of its industrial and scientific institutions there is zero chance for free market growth and competence in innovation.The second problem is islam by nature is designed to provide unity and cohesion to tribal societies of arabia ( a model that worked well in middle ages),what islam is totally unsuited to do is develop modern scientific temper.The central virtue in islamic society is submission and blind faith,which is the exact opposite of questioning,the bedrock of scientific method.Thus islamic societies can't produce any modern science(individual muslims in non -islamic social setting might do so) and can only survive in technological dependancy on non muslim cultures,or try to leech science off them.Allah as you know 'does not like those who question'.
2.Pakistan is fundamentally a theocratic feudal garrison state,with the ruling class composed of pakjabi landlord cum soldiers,who control both the army,the bureaucracy(with the mohajirs now kicked out of this stronghold) as well as investing their surplus from control over land into industrial activity and offshore assets.The other components of the ruling class are sindhi feudal lords and army pashtuns settled in punjab.Frontier areas are generally tribal cannon fodder.The final component of the ruling class is the ulema who conduct religious indoctrination and provide legitimacy to the army rule.They are held together by their economic interests,feudal pride and hatred of 'hindu' india.
3.It has a huge growing young population but they are a burden because the ruling class is not interested in investing in science,industry,health or education nor is capable because of the need to support the army expenditure.It needs the ulema and propaganda to keep this mass in check.
4.Its agro economy faces a crisis.Food prices will only go down as food production has become extremely efficient.The bigger problem is water crisis with Pakistani groundwater almost dry,its water conservation infrastructure non existent,afghans are building dams on the kabul river and that is catastrophe for the frontier areas.Climate change ended the indus valley civilization,it will devastate pakistan.
5.Pakistan's last major source of revenue is remittances.This is where we have to wait for 1-2 decades for this last thread to snap.Main sources are europe and gulf.Gulf will be finished in 1-2 decades with the end of oil.All those workers will return instead of sending billions.In europe in the next 2 decades we are tragically going to see a mass deportation at best,china model incarceration or worst holocaust.Anyone that thinks the europeans will allow sub saharan and south-west asian muslim hordes to grow to a point where they rule over them is delusional and unaware of just how ruthless they can be .Europe is only slowly waking up,still with a benign face - but the jackboot and the swastika are in the closet.Centrist-conservatives will not be able to hold back the populist right tide back for much longer.Macron and merkel are the last of their kind.There will be a mass flight of muslims(sadly it might extend to non-muslim coloured people as well if it gets out of control) within next 2-3 decades as their pop percentage increases and so does civil strife in european cities.
6.Internally they are fighting 2 insurgencies in balochistan and FATA,with sindhis ,mohajirs and gilgit-baltis also fed up.This is a drain on their manpower and resources and the instability will prevent economic development.
7.With the us withdrawal from afghanistan pakistan will lose its last strategic ace- the ability to make themselves useful to usa due to supply line.Without leverage USA will increasingly treat them as the chinese vassal they have become,and usa is coming for china now.Pakistanis have no choice but to stay in china camp with no flexibility because they are too indebted to the chinese due to CPEC lemon.USA will make things hard for pak in global economic institutions.
We are already 10 times the pakistani economy,the sole reason the weight of that is not fully felt at military level yet is the 10 wasted years under UPA,that is now being corrected.By 2025 the 1st phase of our modernization will be complete,and suffice to dominate pak militarily completely.But in reality the indo-pak 'rivalry' will end not with a bang but a whimper.As budget goes higher and more tech and drones becomes available the LOC will become ever more impregnable and our military disparity ever more pronounced.Balakot is only the beginning,and the new norm for skirmishes.
By mid to late 2020s we will be 5 trillion,by mid to late 2030s 10 trillion.Pakistan will be simply insignificant and eclipsed totally by sheer economic strength.All India needs to do is keep growing and have a nationalist government with no illusions about the pakistani deep state.And we win automatically 1-2 decades at best.Though i am of the opinion that taking POK maybe a waste of time altogether,just adding more waste of space jihadis.