LOC Flare up: Related news and Discussions

Austerlitz said:
Pakistan is a dying state.

1.Its economy is permanently compromised.Huge near irreedemable debt,begging bowl politics,agro dependant economy with ever decreasing returns,population explosion.The army controls the economy and wont let go,with retired army generals in charge of its industrial and scientific institutions there is zero chance for free market growth and competence in innovation.The second problem is islam by nature is designed to provide unity and cohesion to tribal societies of arabia ( a model that worked well in middle ages),what islam is totally unsuited to do is develop modern scientific temper.The central virtue in islamic society is submission and blind faith,which is the exact opposite of questioning,the bedrock of scientific method.Thus islamic societies can't produce any modern science(individual muslims in non -islamic social setting might do so) and can only survive in technological dependancy on non muslim cultures,or try to leech science off them.Allah as you know 'does not like those who question'.

2.Pakistan is fundamentally a theocratic feudal garrison state,with the ruling class composed of pakjabi landlord cum soldiers,who control both the army,the bureaucracy(with the mohajirs now kicked out of this stronghold) as well as investing their surplus from control over land into industrial activity and offshore assets.The other components of the ruling class are sindhi feudal lords and army pashtuns settled in punjab.Frontier areas are generally tribal cannon fodder.The final component of the ruling class is the ulema who conduct religious indoctrination and provide legitimacy to the army rule.They are held together by their economic interests,feudal pride and hatred of 'hindu' india.

3.It has a huge growing young population but they are a burden because the ruling class is not interested in investing in science,industry,health or education nor is capable because of the need to support the army expenditure.It needs the ulema and propaganda to keep this mass in check.

4.Its agro economy faces a crisis.Food prices will only go down as food production has become extremely efficient.The bigger problem is water crisis with Pakistani groundwater almost dry,its water conservation infrastructure non existent,afghans are building dams on the kabul river and that is catastrophe for the frontier areas.Climate change ended the indus valley civilization,it will devastate pakistan.

5.Pakistan's last major source of revenue is remittances.This is where we have to wait for 1-2 decades for this last thread to snap.Main sources are europe and gulf.Gulf will be finished in 1-2 decades with the end of oil.All those workers will return instead of sending billions.In europe in the next 2 decades we are tragically going to see a mass deportation at best,china model incarceration or worst holocaust.Anyone that thinks the europeans will allow sub saharan and south-west asian muslim hordes to grow to a point where they rule over them is delusional and unaware of just how ruthless they can be .Europe is only slowly waking up,still with a benign face - but the jackboot and the swastika are in the closet.Centrist-conservatives will not be able to hold back the populist right tide back for much longer.Macron and merkel are the last of their kind.There will be a mass flight of muslims(sadly it might extend to non-muslim coloured people as well if it gets out of control) within next 2-3 decades as their pop percentage increases and so does civil strife in european cities.

6.Internally they are fighting 2 insurgencies in balochistan and FATA,with sindhis ,mohajirs and gilgit-baltis also fed up.This is a drain on their manpower and resources and the instability will prevent economic development.

7.With the us withdrawal from afghanistan pakistan will lose its last strategic ace- the ability to make themselves useful to usa due to supply line.Without leverage USA will increasingly treat them as the chinese vassal they have become,and usa is coming for china now.Pakistanis have no choice but to stay in china camp with no flexibility because they are too indebted to the chinese due to CPEC lemon.USA will make things hard for pak in global economic institutions.

We are already 10 times the pakistani economy,the sole reason the weight of that is not fully felt at military level yet is the 10 wasted years under UPA,that is now being corrected.By 2025 the 1st phase of our modernization will be complete,and suffice to dominate pak militarily completely.But in reality the indo-pak 'rivalry' will end not with a bang but a whimper.As budget goes higher and more tech and drones becomes available the LOC will become ever more impregnable and our military disparity ever more pronounced.Balakot is only the beginning,and the new norm for skirmishes.

By mid to late 2020s we will be 5 trillion,by mid to late 2030s 10 trillion.Pakistan will be simply insignificant and eclipsed totally by sheer economic strength.All India needs to do is keep growing and have a nationalist government with no illusions about the pakistani deep state.And we win automatically 1-2 decades at best.Though i am of the opinion that taking POK maybe a waste of time altogether,just adding more waste of space jihadis.
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Sir , whatever you have written is good to read but the Biggest " Known -- Unknown "
Factor is CHINA

If Chinese Yuan becomes the One of the Reserve Currencies then China will just print Yuan and Pay off Pakistani Debt and literally buy Pakistan

China is a Ruthless country
They killed Thousands of their own people affected by Corona to bring the situation
Under control

So China will do Anything to help Pakistan because that gives it enormous LEVERAGE over Afghanistan , Iran and even Gulf countries

You are right about Oil wealth of GCC countries coming down rapidly in next 2 decades

But that will hurt India too -- we get 70 Billion in NRI remittances

Pak Army is a very clever Creature

It will use Chinese influence and assistance to keep the pot boiling for us

If India China relations deteriorate then you can even see 100 K Pak army men on Arunachal and Ladakh borders

Pakistan will NOT die as long as China wants it to exist in a shape and form
Such that it REMAINS a threat to India
 
STEPHEN COHEN said:
Sir , whatever you have written is good to read but the Biggest " Known -- Unknown "
Factor is CHINA

If Chinese Yuan becomes the One of the Reserve Currencies then China will just print Yuan and Pay off Pakistani Debt and literally buy Pakistan

China is a Ruthless country
They killed Thousands of their own people affected by Corona to bring the situation
Under control

So China will do Anything to help Pakistan because that gives it enormous LEVERAGE over Afghanistan , Iran and even Gulf countries

You are right about Oil wealth of GCC countries coming down rapidly in next 2 decades

But that will hurt India too -- we get 70 Billion in NRI remittances

Pak Army is a very clever Creature

It will use Chinese influence and assistance to keep the pot boiling for us

If India China relations deteriorate then you can even see 100 K Pak army men on Arunachal and Ladakh borders

Pakistan will NOT die as long as China wants it to exist in a shape and form
Such that it REMAINS a threat to India
Click to expand...

China is in for hell once the Coronavirus pandemic subsides.The west is coming for it bigtime.
They already have a 300% debt to gdp ratio,which is enormous.
But china's biggest weakness is its aging population,the one child policy is coming back to bite them,its also why they cant surpass usa by meaningful margin.
Even if pakistan survives in a dysfunctional weakened state it will be insignificant.

Yes India will lose remittances from the gulf,but that will be more than compensated by the end of needing to import 100 plus billion dollars worth of oil every year with foreign exchange which is a big budget pressure point.
 
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Austerlitz said:
China is in for hell once the Coronavirus pandemic subsides.The west is coming for it bigtime.
They already have a 300% debt to gdp ratio,which is enormous.
But china's biggest weakness is its aging population,the one child policy is coming back to bite them,its also why they cant surpass usa by meaningful margin.
Even if pakistan survives in a dysfunctional weakened state it will be insignificant.

Yes India will lose remittances from the gulf,but that will be more than compensated by the end of needing to import 100 plus billion dollars worth of oil every year with foreign exchange which is a big budget pressure point.
Click to expand...

The Western countries only care about Money and Jobs

That is why they did not enforce Lockdowns early on

The Americans are still fighting amongst themselves about the Stimulus package and Trump' s Inaction in the early phase

All western Countries are pump priming their economies with Trillions of dollars in stimulus packages and Quantitative Easing

A lot of this money will find its way to China through Cheap imports -- once again as it happened after 2008 recession

And with so much liquidity sloshing around , there will be the inevitable Speculation in Commodities especially Oil

So two years from now , Oil will climb back to 75 Dollars at least even with no supply constraints

In 2008 there was Quantitative easing done by the West and by 2013 we had oil above 100 Dollars

China will do everything to repair its Image , even if it means distributing
Free Mobiles or Laptops to everybody in USA :ROFLMAO:
 
Austerlitz said:
China is in for hell once the Coronavirus pandemic subsides.The west is coming for it bigtime.
They already have a 300% debt to gdp ratio,which is enormous.
But china's biggest weakness is its aging population,the one child policy is coming back to bite them,its also why they cant surpass usa by meaningful margin.
Even if pakistan survives in a dysfunctional weakened state it will be insignificant.

Yes India will lose remittances from the gulf,but that will be more than compensated by the end of needing to import 100 plus billion dollars worth of oil every year with foreign exchange which is a big budget pressure point.
Click to expand...
Hi, whats your opinion about the west going after china. This pandemic has sent the west 2-3 backwards. By the time the west recovers china would build its image back to normal and it would be business as usual. The public sentiment to punish china will die down.
 
Paro said:
Hi, whats your opinion about the west going after china. This pandemic has sent the west 2-3 backwards. By the time the west recovers china would build its image back to normal and it would be business as usual. The public sentiment to punish china will die down.
Click to expand...
US homeland has not suffered in a hundred years, as it is suffering now under the strain of the chinese virus. It was always that the US would dish out economic and military pain on others, and use its geographic isolation to keep the negative effects at bay. Even the world wars did not ravage the US. Only the influenza pandemic of 1918 would compare. But, the economic effects of the corona virus would be greater.
Even in January the CCP was saying that human to human transmission was not certain.And by this time waves of infected chinese had already spread out to US and Europe. The US too, is to blame as they were relaxed, with no living memory of any epidemic in the west, they thought that these diseases are Asia's and Africa's problem. Without, active infections coming down drastically any loosening of restrictions will lead to further waves of covid. The US economy is crippled for the next 6 months, and around a 100000 will die. I don't see the US absolving China of this.. There will be payback..
Dr. Fauci: We'll 'take a look' at China's handling of coronavirus 'when this is all over'
 
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Pakistani Army as usual has used artillery against civilian population concentrations near the border. We have had civilian casualties.

Its a failure on our side that in such situations people are if not evacuated, then atleast should be forced to remain in bunkers. And enough of them should be provided.

New Pakistan Army leadership here has a point to prove his worthiness. And with all the goodies received last year, he will keep pushing us. We need to do continuous coordinated artillery strikes for 3-4 weeks with sustained vigour. Only then the attritional loses will mean their leadership will face some heat.

Right now they use their national guard reserves in PoK and as they are not regulars, they simply don't need to acknowledge the deaths. We need to increase the cost. Only then tangible results might be obtained in the short term.
Paro said:
Hi, whats your opinion about the west going after china. This pandemic has sent the west 2-3 backwards. By the time the west recovers china would build its image back to normal and it would be business as usual. The public sentiment to punish china will die down.
Click to expand...
The punishment will not be severe. But it will be there. It will not die down.

Right now its low oil prices. If Saudi manage to keep it this way , the first result might come from Iran.
 
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Places where we have advantages will be hit deep including civilian infrastructure which supports pak army irregulars and terrorists. This is to retaliate the heavy shelling in civilian areas.

We can now expect a DGMO request from Pakistan soon.
 
Ankit Kumar said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1249332864405004288

120mm heavy mortars and 122mm guns being employed.
Pak hitting civilian areas heavily

https://twitter.com/x/status/1249332976791379970
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Yeah because Indian army is hiding behind human shields.
EVZ8RQ2XQAIZJcR.jpeg
 
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