Mirage 2000H, MiG-29UPG, Jaguar DARIN III - Medium Multirole Aircraft of IAF

I see 8 pm in full flow tonight. Must be a real heady brew or possibly a party where there's no get your own booze policy which means it's on the house & we're left to suffer the consequences. Let's examine the damages.
The IAF had no plans to acquire the MiG-29 leave aside mfg them. It was thrust down their throats but since it was an efficient machine the IAF didn't complain too much. Are we to understand that the IAF consented to mfg the MiG-27 & later the Su-30 but not the MiG-29 ? This is stupid logic or more to the point going bottoms up more than once & then typing. I can already tell the damages tonight will be severe.

Simply changed into the MKI coz the SU had no intention of offering the Flanker when we didn't even want the MiG-29 ?! Asking for sources for this piece of abomination is in itself an offence I guess. Well here's the very anti thesis of 8 pm analysis

The things AI can generate for you these days , it's scary. Much less scary than chatting with chat bots about dark tetrads I imagine .


The introduction of the Mirage 2000 into the IAF’s fleet prompted the Soviet Union to offer the MiG-29, a state-of-the-art fighter that had previously been off-limits. This marked the first time the Soviets had offered India its most up-to-date fighter platform. By the end of 1987, the IAF had incorporated two squadrons of MiG-29s, bolstering its capabilities significantly. By the late 1980s, the IAF stood at the pinnacle of global air power.

India's Mirage 2000 Acquisition, #IAFHistory

However, the early induction of the Mirage 2000 came at a steep cost. The IAF faced significant challenges with immature radar and engine technologies, and the integration of weapons systems with the Mirage 2000 was protracted, creating a gap between its theoretical and operational capabilities.


The broader implications of these acquisitions were even more profound. Made in response to immediate threats, these decisions led the Indian government to retain but postpone the rights to license manufacture these platforms domestically. Under pressure from the Soviets, India opted to manufacture the MiG-27 with Hindustan Aeronautics Limited under the TASA program. This steered India towards more Floggers instead of expanding the Mirage 2000 or MiG-29 fleets. Despite being an early adopter of the Mirage 2000, the subsequent financial crisis hindered India’s ability to benefit fully from its initial investment, as it could not commit to license manufacturing. The MiG-29 faced a similar fate.


No happenstance at all . The Mirage 2000 was a mature piece of FA as compared to what we received when it was brand new & faced teething issues. It was later on in the framing of the tender phase that IAF agreed with Dassault & replaced the Mirage 2000-5 with the Rafales.

This was a later development & completely blows out of water 8 pm analysis of TE vs SE manure. It's evident RST isn't familiar with post hoc rationalization or post facto explanation although he indulges in all the time.

Here's AI to the rescue again .

why did iaf opt for the Rafales instead of the Mirage 2000 in the mmrca tender - Google Search

Yawn & Fart at the same time. It's that kind of miracle post which activates all your orifices to expul repugnant stuff.

The MMRCA came into being only coz the then DM refused to consider a single vendor situation. Had he agreed we'd not be having this conversation out here.

The rest of the argument is immaterial to the discussion we're having.

I went thru the contents of that interview & felt like slapping myself. I mean were we discussing the SE vs TE choice in the MMRCA or were we discussing why this tender started out with the Mirage 2000 only to be replaced with the Rafales mid course.

Where did this conversation of medium vs heavy come into the picture at all ? Do I put this down to the usual goal post shifting or 8 pm hubris ? Or both ?

And what's this poppycock about the MKI participating in the tender when we signed an agreement with the Russians way back in 2000 for 140 MKI to be licence mfgd by HAL after importing 50 odd Su 30 from Russia in 1996 ? It seems Matheswaran gives out his own opioids which RST consumes wholesale no questions asked & then subjects us to it expecting we'd raise no questions either .


MKI wasn't old tech then , the IAF realised they had goofed up with a top heavy AF where the bulk of the OPEX was going into servicing the MKIs. Which is the reason they subsequently capped the procurement at 272 instead of the original 360 nos.

That's the reason they emphasised the medium in MMRCA. In any case the Russian cabinet was totally bereft of anything they could offer us by the time of the MMRCA tender. It remains so till date with the Su-57M being a notable exception . However the IAF seems to think otherwise or so it seems.

Btw the same Matheswaran who sings paens to the Su 57 is here casting a shadow of doubt on the Russkies when he argues against critical dependancies on the Russians & more than a decade later when asked for a report on the Su 57 opines that we should go in for if . Something RST never noticed when he brought up links quoting Matheswaran in support of the Su 57 , in spite of linking this article here innumerable times apparently. 8 pm once again.

I won't even bring up being totally dependent on the Russians for the bulk of our AF needs coz this was something we realised way back in the 1970s itself , hence the Jaguars , the Mirages , the outreach to the US for assistance in the LCA program & not the SU .

The last point is very important . It debunks what Matheswaran wants to convey with respect to our extreme reluctance to consider Russian equipment in 2004 when the RFIs went out whereas that was a given since the 1970s with RST duly parroting the same line here without any due diligence or application of mind.

To add to it , the Admiral Gorshkov / INS Vikramaditya saga left a very bitter taste in the mouth. That's the larger context.

The definition of generations will keep changing the more we prolong this farce called the MMRCA or MRFA or whatever it'd be called in future. If this persists in 2040 as I mentioned in a previous post to Sathya we'd have the entire menagerie competing from 4.5th Gen to 6th / 7th Geb FAs & RST will still be singing atithi tum kab aaoge here?

If we place an order for a Rafale today we won't see it before 2030. In case Dassault decides to set up a line in India as per reports that's still 3 years before they get it going.

I thought most of what's going into the AMCA Mk-1 is going to be demonstrated in the LCA Mk-2 which is already being fabricated . Besides RST himself was comparing the Mk-2 favourably with the Rafales in innumerable posts before & now this. 8 pm !

The AMCA Mk-1 has already received CCS clearance & funds allocated (?) . It's scheduled to make first flight by 2029. Hopefully by 2034-35 it'd be certified. Add a few more years for full production & maturity. Which is the reason the Rafales make less & less sense in 2035 going by RST's own logic of legacy FAs like the Hornets & the Falcons not being in contention in spite of participation in the MMRCA tender.

What's more preferable ? Our own FA which may not be mature or something foreign ? At least I hope we don't get to see these arguments in the 2030s . I've seen & had enough of them right thru the 2010s till date.

Besides by 2035 we would have 3-4 Fighter Aircrafts - if we include the TEDBF developed indigenously within 4 decades apart from iterations of it . By then we would definitely have acquired a depth of expertise & experience we didn't see in the LCA Mk-1 program for obvious reasons.

We would definitely have achieved near state of the art capabilities in terms of capacity building by 2035 which translates to the time needed for productionizing a FA from the prototype being drastically curtailed . Otherwise what's the point of all that experience ?

I'd sincerely urge RST to pull himself together & stop indulging in futuristic fantasies post 8 pm . MUMT , DEW etc are a very long way from being matured technologies. RN our concern is more geared towards getting the proverbial "mother ship" ready & in shape.

If there's no AMCA or LCA Mk-2 what's the point of a FUFA or anything else ? The pilot may just as well play with his own joystick . Let's not equate development of such technology with its maturation or even mastery of it . It'd follow the same cycle of iterations like iterations & generations of FAs. That's not even top priority with us today.
 
Russian ac are generally cheap to acquire but expensive to maintain. That aside from political compulsions influenced our fighter acquisitions all through the 80s and 90s. Sukhoi was in dire straits at the end of the Cold War and we practically resuscitated them with the purchase of the 50 Su-30Ks in around 1995.

Today, the IAF is considering lifecycle costs on the while when acquiring new fighters. But the GOI is still coming to grips with the eye-watering upfront acquisiton costs of Western origin ac. The military (everyone from the late CDS Rawat to successive air chiefs) has therefore been trying to calm MoF down by staggering purchases of ac over time. This, of course, leaves them hostage to supply chain issues at manufacturers like Dassault that already has a full/fast-filling order book.

The cost of building a modern 4.5 gen under license is nothing like the Jags or M2000s of old. It's easily 2X the cost of an off-the-shelf buy(MRFA is estimated at $20B, specifics unknown). I think MKI production alone cost us some $12B. (2020 exchange rate?) If we can get a reasonable cut from third-country ac builds or maintenance (Indonesia x Rafale) then that might make it more palatable to GOI.
 
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Ah, Ignorants, the only thing he got right in his previous post was the good idea to slap himself, and he failed to do even that.

The SU was pressured to offer the Mig-29, the IAF wanted it to challenge the F-16. It wasn't forced down on the IAF. They offered the Mig-29 on the condition that we buy more Mig-27s, which we produced until the mid-90s before switching to the MKI.

MKI numbers were never 360, it was 190. The delay in MMRCA led to upping the numbers to 270. This is what happens when you don't slap yourself enough when you are too Ignorants by birth. The goal was always to supplement the MKI numbers with upcoming European jets even in the 90s. They had decided on MCA back then too.

There was no magic withdrawal of Mirage 2000 for the Rafale. Time was simply up and the French offered the Rafale after Boeing offered SH. Basically there was MRCA, with M2000, F-16 and Gripen C. Boeing offered SH 'cause they wanted to participate, so the French withdrew M2000 and offered Rafale. Then it became MMRCA. All this happened in 2003, 'cause the RFP was released in 2004. People have to be very stupid to think the French will give up on pretty much a done deal via M2000 and open themselves up for competition. The F-16 had no chance due to lack of American export clearance to India at the time and Gripen was significantly inferior to the M2000.

There was no bitter taste affecting the IAF due to the Vikramaditya saga. It's just pseudo-nonsense fed to the gullible by the Western import lobby. Not enough slaps of reality delivered to self unfortunately. We still continued buying stuff from Russia after that, and we still plan to. Just one incorrectly handled deal did not affect relations. And anyone who says otherwise hasn't slapped themselves enough.

Matheswaran is right. Slap yourself if you don't agree, requires perspective reset when an Internet chump claims to know more than the "Principal Director of Air Staff Requirements" for the IAF at the time MMRCA began. Simply put he's the expert even the ACM will call up to inquire. He was also the Commandant of ASTE, which evaluates all of IAF's aircraft. Meaning, he is the expert for other IAF experts. I can't stress this point enough. Experts in the IAF have to rely on his expertise to stay expert. Ignorants has achieved a new level of Ignorants.

As for AMCA, it may even be better rigged than the Rafale, but it won't be fully compliant until the mid 2040s. AMCA will become as useful as the Rafale F5 only by the late 2040s. It's a 20-year program, Rafale is 3 years or 10 years depending on the version. And if MUM-T and DEW will take longer to achieve, then it makes Rafale all the more important. I'm not surprised that Ignorants cannot correlate the two. The faster MUM-T is developed, the faster AMCA becomes more relevant than the Rafale.

As for that 2035 nonsense, ADA/DRDO may deliver sufficent tech by 2035, it's merely initial capabilities at first, but it's a 10-year process after that for the IAF to utilize said tech. Even when Rafale was inducted, the IAF Chief bragged about how it normally takes 3 years for a jet to be operationalized after first delivery, while Rafale only needs 1 year because of its maturity. The same is 10 years from IOC for a brand new jet. Even MKI MLU will take 3-4 years after first delivery for it to be fully operational. Even when such common sense information is delivered, there seems to be poblems in digesting it. I don't think using one's joystick to slap themselves is possible, if that's been the main 'cause that prevented treatment, definitely try using the palm first.
 
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Russian ac are generally cheap to acquire but expensive to maintain. That aside from political compulsions influenced our fighter acquisitions all through the 80s and 90s. Sukhoi was in dire straits at the end of the Cold War and we practically resuscitated them with the purchase of the 50 Su-30Ks in around 1995.

Today, the IAF is considering lifecycle costs on the while when acquiring new fighters. But the GOI is still coming to grips with the eye-watering upfront acquisiton costs of Western origin ac. The military (everyone from the late CDS Rawat to successive air chiefs) has therefore been trying to calm MoF down by staggering purchases of ac over time. This, of course, leaves them hostage to supply chain issues at manufacturers like Dassault that already has a full/fast-filling order book.

The cost of building a modern 4.5 gen under license is nothing like the Jags or M2000s of old. It's easily 2X the cost of an off-the-shelf buy(MRFA is estimated at $20B, specifics unknown). I think MKI production alone cost us some $12B. (2020 exchange rate?) If we can get a reasonable cut from third-country ac builds or maintenance (Indonesia x Rafale) then that might make it more palatable to GOI.

It was even more expensive back then, but our exchange rate made things far more affordable.


You can see it climbed from roughly 5 to a dollar to about 9-10 by the early 1980s until things became unaffordable. That's when they started the indigenization program. So for the first 40 years it weakened by 2 times, but the subsequent 40 years saw it weaken by 8 times.

Low birthrate, increase in wages and lower capex also inflated costs in the West at the same time.

Rightfully LCA should have seen success a decade earlier, then we wouldn't have been in this situation today. We were supposed to have finished buying LCAs today and already progressed to a less capable AMCA by now, powered by F414, enough to render MRFA to a secondary status with just piecemeal orders like 4 squadrons.
 
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Oh golly ! That was some booze party , that was . It took all of 40 hours on the weekend to be revived & post here. Once again at 8 pm !!

Oh well , I guess that's what muft ka chandan ... results in .

Pressured to offer the MiG-29 , eh ? Now let's compare that to RST's earlier script which'd make C grade film makers blush by their leaps of imagination. Hell , what did I see ?! There''s absolutely no mention of the licence mfg of the MiG-27s at all in any of RST's posts before the last one here .

Wonder why ? That's 8 pm analysis for you . Extremely derivative , devoid of facts mostly & assembled together only if they serve the larger purpose of peddling RSTs story & pushing his narrative forward.

We aren't yet clear whether there was an actual offer by the SU for the licence mfg of the MiG-29s like in the case of the MiG-27s or if there were reservations on the part of the IAF in going in for the licence mfg of a brand new FA which was just introduced into service in the home country's AF & which the IAF themselves hadn't been extensively acquainted with particularly given the experience the latter had with the Jaguars & the Mirage 2000s which faced teething problems during their induction , although the article I've linked seems to suggest there were financial issues which doesn't quite explain how we went in for the licence mfg of the MiG -27s then inspite of these financial problems.

It's all about the requirements of the MiG- 29 being converted magically into the Flankers. Why ? JLT. The IAF functions on whims & half baked analyses much like the 8 pm ones of RST here or so he'd have us believe.

We were so broke that we could nonetheless negotiate a deal for the Su-30 during PVN's time & sign the agreement with Russia during the premiership of Deve Gowda for imports of 50 Su-30 , paying them ~ 350 million USD IN ADVANCE during PVN'S tenure without even an agreement & all this mind you within less than 6 years of borrowing from the IMF keeping our sovereign gold as collateral.


Not just that . Barely 4 years later we inked an agreement with the Russians for licence mfg of 140 MKIs for ~ 1.4 billion USD. Why not MiG-29 ? For starters these were short legged & the IAF were so enamoured with the MKI's range payload etc they forgot to consider the OPEX , among other reasons for choosing the MKI's over the MiG-29. I'm sure the Klimov TFs played it's part in the IAF's choice.

But you won't get all that in 8 pm analysis.
Frankly I've had this argument so many times in the past it's not even funny any more . Here's what I posted in Mar 2022 about the Russians reporting on the 350 nos of MKI's we were supposed to procure with chatter in their media & SM since the mid 2000s .

Post in thread 'MMRCA 2.0 - Updates and Discussions' MMRCA 2.0 - Updates and Discussions

IIRC Original Story Teller ( OST ) - PKS himself alluded to the numbers way back in 2011-12 immediately after he launched his blog Trishul. If one goes thru the contents of the link & a few pages before & after one would notice that RST has been peddling the same line of RFI / RFP of the MRFA there &; before , since this forum started out in late 2017 & prior to that on I D F .

Back then the magic date was supposed to be 2022. Subsequently there's been a revision. No clue what it is now . 2025 or 2027 or 2031 ? Now I truly can't tell whether I should be slapping myself or ......

The goal was always fleet enhancement & more importantly replacement of the Jaguars , the MiG 29 & Mirage 2000. Of course it would complement the MKIs.

As long as it was a single vendor situation Dassault was happy offering the Mirage 2000-5 , their latest iteration of the Mirage 2000 , which they claimed would go out of production soon unless India committed to a G2G pact which was the initial idea , however things changed when it became apparent this would be a competitive tender.


People don't have to be stupid to understand that once it's going to be a competitive tender with technical & financial bids , with the latest from Europe in the fray ( the US didn't have anything in their cabinet later than the 1970s or 80s which was essentially the F-16 . I won't even bring up the Hornets here for doing so insults not only my intelligence but the competence of the IAF. Are we to believe that the trouble prone sub optimal land based Hornets whose performance by the time of the framing of the MMRCA was known , would offer serious competition to the Eurocanards irrespective of the country of its origin ? And the Russians didn't have anything we needed at all ) , France would have to bring in their state of the art stuff which is exactly what Dassault did with the Rafale. But logic goes for a toss before 8 pm analysis.

If the Gripen was inferior to the Mirage 2000 wonder why didn't Dassault persist with the latter instead of offering the Rafale. It was 1 of the 2 or 3 which successfully completed its engine restart process in Leh .

Yup. Actually I agree with RST when he implies the Indian armed forces are a sado masochistic lot . They love being tormented by foreign & domestic vendors not to mention they love being taken for a ride. I'm sure they went right up to the Russkies after the entire INS Vikramaditya saga , spread their cheeks & said - Yeh Dil maange more. This is one 8 pm analysis which is spot on !

We also deal with Paxtan China & most importantly the US which has as recently as less than 2 months ago engineered a coup against Shaikh Haseena but actually has phucked us in the *censored* , something Russia or its predecessor have never done.

So Matheshwaran tries to spin off the need for diverse FAs in the MMRCA tender which in itself seems odd & therefore prompted a question by a veteran ex Naval Aviator & CNS Arun Prakash with a weak explanation juggling SE & TE , coining the word medium & bad mouthing the Russkies & RST buys it lock stock & barrel .

The same Matheshwaran then drafts an ambiguous report on the instructions of the then DM MP on whether India ought to continue in the FGFA project by leaving the door open in case of exigencies while we close the chapter on it not the book to proceed with the AMCA & RST completely misses the nuances unsurprisingly. 8 pm strikes once again !!

At this point I'm too tired & disinterested in hunting for posts by RST which he's posted by the dozens on why & how the AMCA Mk-1 would surpass the Rafales when it's introduced whenever that is.

This is what I call the 8 pm effect. You tend not to recall what you did or said last night leave aside what you posted a week ago or a year ago or before. RST needs both Alka Seltzers & slaps to get his thinking right .

My stand remains the same as before . If the Rafales are due when the AMCA Mk-1 is being inducted it's simply not worth the effort EVEN if it's slightly inferior to the Rafales. The time to get the Rafales is NOW.

Induction must happen before 2030. It may continue upto 2035 but it can't begin in 2035. By that time the Chinese threat will no longer be there which means we can go about with the induction of the AMCA's at a leisurely pace not that we aren't doing so today.

Ahh ! Another angle being introduced & goal posts shifted. Apparently DEW & MUM- T are the deal breakers now. No DEW & MUM-T with AMCA no deal .

No goalposts have been shifted when drafting this post . Any such goal post shifting done is purely unintentional , a co incidence & a matter of sheer habit.

Another of those 8 pm gems ! The things I learn at Strat Front . Oh boy !!

I think I quite clearly laid out my position that if it comes to tech where we're within a certain bandwidth of international technology the preference must be an Indian platform. We've now gained enough exposure & experience to get as close to state of the art as possible. The debate over desi vs imported would've held good in the past even this decade not the next.

There's another reason we should abjure foreign tech unless it's deemed absolutely vital for Nat Sec & we've failed miserably in local endeavours that being the threat perception which as I mentioned above is from China which is most likely to manifest itself by the end of this decade.

Ah , getting smutty aren't we? I always knew RST had a febrile imagination. Only he could conjure up a scenario of a person attempting to slap himself with his own joystick & failing .

Presumably it's personal experience speaking. Like the kind which resulted in extensive
chatting to AI bots to figure out dark triads & tetrads & posting such details out here including i̶n̶a̶d̶v̶e̶r̶t̶e̶n̶t̶l̶y̶ ̶c̶o̶n̶f̶e̶s̶s̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶b̶ummi̶n̶g̶ ̶1̶6̶ ̶y̶e̶a̶r̶ ̶o̶l̶d̶ ̶̶̶̶̶̶̶̶̶̶̶̶̶̶̶̶g̶i̶r̶l̶s̶ ok , let's not even go there.

This is the kind of imagination which is borne of this phenomenon 👇

gif-of-dog-reacting-to-a-toddler-putting-his-finger-in-the-dogs-butt.gif


Now while this may seem funny , if not checked at a young age results in the kind of inquisitive thoughts of a hyperactive mind we see near daily manifestations of out here which put another way is just another facet of a febrile imagination at an age well past correction.

Had RST's folks checked him then which includes coercive measures like slapping we wouldn't have been suffering what we do out here - projections of the mind of an over imaginative man child.

But then again the entertainment quota of this forum would've gone for a toss. As with everything else in life it's a matter of trade offs , of choices.

Here's another example of the above symptoms . Any likeness to RST's childhood is a miserable co incidence.

 
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