MMRCA 2.0 - Updates and Discussions
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Dassault aviation miserait sur l’assemblage de Rafale exports en Inde pour s’adjuger le super contrat MRCA-2 ?
Is Dassault Aviation betting on assembling Rafale exports in India to win the MRCA-2 super contract?
Fabrice Wolf
According to the Indian press, Dassault Aviation is considering assembling some of the Rafales in its international order book in India. Although this information has not yet been confirmed, it would nonetheless make a great deal of sense, as it would put the French bid for the MRCA-2 contract in a league of its own, beyond the reach of its American, Russian or European competitors.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to France last July for the 14 July celebrations was an opportunity for Dassault Aviation to start the final negotiations for an order for 26 Rafale M aircraft for the Indian Navy.
At the same time, Naval Group was negotiating the exercise of the option for three Kalvari-class Scorpene submarines, to be assembled in Goa to join the six vessels already built and soon all in service with the Indian Navy.
Strategic cooperation under discussion between Paris and New Delhi
But these two spectacular contracts could well represent just the tip of the iceberg in terms of Franco-Indian industrial and technological cooperation in the years to come.
Last July, a number of potential cooperative ventures were already announced, notably in the field of fighter jet engines, while New Delhi is aiming to develop two major aircraft in the coming years: the AMCA, which is to replace the Indian Air Force's Su-30MKIs, and the TEDBF, which is to equip India's future CATOBAR aircraft carrier.
But other subjects had also leaked, particularly to the Indian press, especially concerning French assistance with the nationally-built nuclear attack submarine programme.
Naval Group is said to be enthusiastic about the idea of helping India to develop its own SNA, including through certain technology transfers, if New Delhi were to order additional Scorpene submarines beforehand.
Although the Indian press is notoriously unreliable, often over-enthusiastic, the fact is that this order is well and truly underway, and reports of Franco-Indian cooperation on the Indian SNA programme are becoming more insistent by the day.
Assembling Rafales in India to win the MRCA-2 contract
So when this same source claims that Dassault is considering deploying a Rafale assembly site in India to meet orders that are piling up beyond the production capacity of the Mérignac site, we should pay close attention.
Admittedly, the information relayed by the Indian site may seem suspicious. Indeed, Dassault recently maintained that its assembly line could produce 3 or even 4 Rafales per month, and that the difficulties encountered today stemmed mainly from the subcontracting chain, which was unable to find the financing needed to keep pace with the growth in sales of the aircraft.
However, such a communication and sales strategy would obviously make a lot of sense for Dassault Aviation, which, in addition to the 26 Rafale Ms currently under negotiation, is also targeting the 114 aircraft in the MRCA 2 competition.
To achieve this, Dassault has every interest in leveraging its main asset, namely its particularly strong export order book, by offering New Delhi the possibility of assembling part of this order book at the site dedicated to the Rafale B/C and possibly M for the Indian air force and navy.
None of the French aircraft's competitors, whether the American F-21 or F-15EX, the European Typhoon, the Swedish Gripen or the Russian Su-35s, can offer such compensation, which would make India an exporter of combat aircraft. This last point would naturally carry a lot of weight in the nationalist stance of President Modi and his government.
Finally, we should note that it is probably preferable for Dassault Aviation not to saturate or oversize its industrial facilities around the Rafale, bearing in mind that in the next few years it will very probably have to produce the Neuron-derived combat drone mentioned in the LPM, as well as upgrading its entire fleet to the F4 and then F5 standards.
After that, in 2035, we will need to switch to production of the NGF for the SCAF programme. Finally, from the point of view of value creation and employment, assembly represents only part of the value of the aircraft, the price of which is based above all on the price of its components, such as engines, on-board systems, weapons and maintenance systems.
An effective and relevant strategy for Dassault Aviation and France
In other words, the business transferred to India in this scenario would be more than offset for France by the order for 114 aircraft, many of whose components will be produced in France.
Dassault Aviation Rafale Neuron Over the next few years, Dassault will have to assemble new Rafales,
modernise existing Rafales and produce combat drones derived from the Neuron at its Mérignac site.
As we can see, the indiscretions obtained by the **** website are far from not withstanding careful analysis, and even fit in perfectly with a possible effective commercial strategy for Dassault Aviation in India.
Given the stakes and the fierce competition surrounding the MRCA-2 contract, it is also understandable that Dassault Aviation might want to keep a low profile, just as Naval Group does with regard to the Indian ANS programme.
It now remains to be seen whether this rumour and the ensuing hypotheses will actually result in new contracts for French manufacturers, and a strengthening of Franco-Indian defence cooperation?
Is Dassault Aviation betting on assembling Rafale exports in India to win the MRCA-2 super contract?
Fabrice Wolf
- Strategic cooperation under discussion between Paris and New Delhi
- Rafale assembly in India to win the MRCA-2 contract
- An effective and relevant strategy for Dassault aviation and France
According to the Indian press, Dassault Aviation is considering assembling some of the Rafales in its international order book in India. Although this information has not yet been confirmed, it would nonetheless make a great deal of sense, as it would put the French bid for the MRCA-2 contract in a league of its own, beyond the reach of its American, Russian or European competitors.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to France last July for the 14 July celebrations was an opportunity for Dassault Aviation to start the final negotiations for an order for 26 Rafale M aircraft for the Indian Navy.
At the same time, Naval Group was negotiating the exercise of the option for three Kalvari-class Scorpene submarines, to be assembled in Goa to join the six vessels already built and soon all in service with the Indian Navy.
Strategic cooperation under discussion between Paris and New Delhi
But these two spectacular contracts could well represent just the tip of the iceberg in terms of Franco-Indian industrial and technological cooperation in the years to come.
Last July, a number of potential cooperative ventures were already announced, notably in the field of fighter jet engines, while New Delhi is aiming to develop two major aircraft in the coming years: the AMCA, which is to replace the Indian Air Force's Su-30MKIs, and the TEDBF, which is to equip India's future CATOBAR aircraft carrier.
But other subjects had also leaked, particularly to the Indian press, especially concerning French assistance with the nationally-built nuclear attack submarine programme.
Naval Group is said to be enthusiastic about the idea of helping India to develop its own SNA, including through certain technology transfers, if New Delhi were to order additional Scorpene submarines beforehand.
Although the Indian press is notoriously unreliable, often over-enthusiastic, the fact is that this order is well and truly underway, and reports of Franco-Indian cooperation on the Indian SNA programme are becoming more insistent by the day.
Assembling Rafales in India to win the MRCA-2 contract
So when this same source claims that Dassault is considering deploying a Rafale assembly site in India to meet orders that are piling up beyond the production capacity of the Mérignac site, we should pay close attention.
Admittedly, the information relayed by the Indian site may seem suspicious. Indeed, Dassault recently maintained that its assembly line could produce 3 or even 4 Rafales per month, and that the difficulties encountered today stemmed mainly from the subcontracting chain, which was unable to find the financing needed to keep pace with the growth in sales of the aircraft.
However, such a communication and sales strategy would obviously make a lot of sense for Dassault Aviation, which, in addition to the 26 Rafale Ms currently under negotiation, is also targeting the 114 aircraft in the MRCA 2 competition.
To achieve this, Dassault has every interest in leveraging its main asset, namely its particularly strong export order book, by offering New Delhi the possibility of assembling part of this order book at the site dedicated to the Rafale B/C and possibly M for the Indian air force and navy.
None of the French aircraft's competitors, whether the American F-21 or F-15EX, the European Typhoon, the Swedish Gripen or the Russian Su-35s, can offer such compensation, which would make India an exporter of combat aircraft. This last point would naturally carry a lot of weight in the nationalist stance of President Modi and his government.
Finally, we should note that it is probably preferable for Dassault Aviation not to saturate or oversize its industrial facilities around the Rafale, bearing in mind that in the next few years it will very probably have to produce the Neuron-derived combat drone mentioned in the LPM, as well as upgrading its entire fleet to the F4 and then F5 standards.
After that, in 2035, we will need to switch to production of the NGF for the SCAF programme. Finally, from the point of view of value creation and employment, assembly represents only part of the value of the aircraft, the price of which is based above all on the price of its components, such as engines, on-board systems, weapons and maintenance systems.
An effective and relevant strategy for Dassault Aviation and France
In other words, the business transferred to India in this scenario would be more than offset for France by the order for 114 aircraft, many of whose components will be produced in France.
Dassault Aviation Rafale Neuron Over the next few years, Dassault will have to assemble new Rafales,
modernise existing Rafales and produce combat drones derived from the Neuron at its Mérignac site.
As we can see, the indiscretions obtained by the **** website are far from not withstanding careful analysis, and even fit in perfectly with a possible effective commercial strategy for Dassault Aviation in India.
Given the stakes and the fierce competition surrounding the MRCA-2 contract, it is also understandable that Dassault Aviation might want to keep a low profile, just as Naval Group does with regard to the Indian ANS programme.
It now remains to be seen whether this rumour and the ensuing hypotheses will actually result in new contracts for French manufacturers, and a strengthening of Franco-Indian defence cooperation?
Not a bad idea tbh provided we get item 30 tech.
This ship has sailed now. IAF is against Su-57/FGFA JV, period. They want more Rafales, nothing more, nothing less.
PS: I hope that at least we procure few squadrons of Su-57M to counter the Chinese VLO threat.
The 4th image is Rafale/Gripen/F15
Is this pointing out to the remaining 3 serious contenders in MMRCA 2.0?
Or it's a general comment pointing out that next DAC might give a go ahead for issuing of RFP for MMRCA?
Is this pointing out to the remaining 3 serious contenders in MMRCA 2.0?
Or it's a general comment pointing out that next DAC might give a go ahead for issuing of RFP for MMRCA?
new MRFA tender RFI is about to be published ? The OEMs at the time of navy deal both companies said this is not mature yet and process would take 1-1.5yrs (just the basic parts).
LCA mk1a & mk2 are new mrfa. Sad reality is, st antony was better than the current DM. I used to see st Antony as the second worst DM after VK Krishnmenon.
Some sections would like to believe MRFA will be canceled in favour of LCA Mk2, but no, it will go ahead once AoN comes through.
The govt seems to have pushed all the major import deals to the next term. P-75I is delayed due to lack of competitors and under-spec'd options. My guess is MRFA is awaiting the completion of AMCA's CDR, which means they are yet to decide on the engine. Delayed deals with Russia have thrown a wrench into the works. The same with deals with America, like the delay with F404 delivery and Sea Guardians contract. Something's happening that we are not privy to. I do hope something new is signed before elections.
Don't think it was ever the case even if pushed by Govt (unlikely). From their point of view I think IAF is well justified, they will accept single engine indigenous jets if the engine is proven enough (this was major point imo as it was known we never had a 100kn class engine on offer when LCA prog began). But the core multipurpose fighters need to be twin engine and highly versatile. Both Su30 and rafale choices point to that. Mk2 would never play serious role in MRFA even if it is included, only to get a better quote/price maybe, but nothing more. IAF rejection of Orca point to that. Amca is a different case, fully new gen stealth based tech. The twin engine multirole jet will be foreign import or won't happen at all.
The mission requirements of MRFA and AMCA are completely different from Mk2, so there's no overlap.
But this story is not being pushed by the govt, but by an Indian lobby led by HAL, and perhaps even the Russians, that wants to prevent a private competitor from upsetting their monopoly. They were successful with helicopters, couldn't stop the transport deal, so now it's the turn of fighter jets. MRFA's cancelation will open up FGFA as an option while naturally reducing the influence of a foreign power in India.
The story goes, "since MRFA will take 6-7 years, let's cancel it 'cause Mk2 will be ready by then. Then ORCA and AMCA will follow." Diehard patriots are lapping this story up. This thought process is very dangerous because they do not realize that it takes up to 10 years after induction just to get enough trained pilots and prove a jet.
They are trying to apply this thought process in a lot of areas, not just MRFA. Cancel P-75I and push for P-76. Cancel Stryker for WhAP. Cancel ATHOS for ATAGS. Cancel Sea Guardian for Rustom-2. And so on.
It took the Rafale blowing MKIs out of the sky to kill the "Buy more MKIs instead" story. So, in 3-4 years, we will see a "Buy upgraded MKIs" story when MRFA is undergoing negotiations. And 6 years after that we will see a "Buy more AMCA instead of exercising MRFA options" story. So this will never end.
It's either the f-15 or rafale. But f-15 doesn't really offer anything over the rafale except for epawws and huge combat payload. It's RCS is still it's weakness.
The Russians need to produce in a different country in order to get around sanctions. So they can get together with an Indian or ME country for a final assembly line and some subcontracting work for export orders, while Russian companies do the main work. So whoever orders some jets can get this advantage. No one's gonna get Item 30 without large captive orders though. But the spares and MRO business will be the golden goose.
This applies to pretty much anything Russia wants to export. They are gonna have to share for others to care.
Last time they selected EFT and suddenly a heavy jet like f15 would be a choice? I did vote for it, but later thought hardly any ToT worth will be offered. I expect gripen to be considered due to ToT on offer.
Typhoon could be a contender only if the Brits offer their mk2 radar or the Germans offer their mk1 radars. If we get the Qatari mk0 version in offer rafale will take this easily. The f-15EX is a contender but it's lifecycle cost and lack of stealth make it extremely cost prohibitive. Although f-15EX could do a bomber role. Better buying 36-54 f-15EX for China and Pakistan than wasting money on tu-22m's.