My point of view is that the F-18 is a joke.
For MRFA, it won't even get shortlisted, so there's nothing to worry about on that front.
We will see a repeat order of about 54 Rafale but the major order of 114 fighters for the IAF and 60+ for IN will go to F-18.
SH won't get shorlisted by the IAF. And the reasons for the previous rejection during MMRCA did not even have anything to do with capability, but more to do with the age of the jet and its future upgrade potential. And after 10 years, the same reasons make it even worse.
Even Finland is currently questioning the future viability of the USN's SH fleet when the USN is seriously planning to remove most of the SH by 2040 and abandoning any upgrade program. It quite literally has no future.
The Chinese are expected to operate multiple carriers with next gen jets after 2030. So the only way for the USN to compete is by replacing all their SHs with the NGAD. And in order to speed up the program, the USN has decided to cut SH production beyond 2021. They plan to get the NGAD operational before 2030, and likely replace all their SH by 2040. So even the latest Block III SHs being delivered today will not see full service life.
The US is looking for a bakra that will continue the SH production line, while they themselves believe it's no longer a viable capability to deal with the threat that India also faces.
In order to make any purchase viable, the captive air force must also operate the same jet to the same time period as we plan to. The French plan to operate the Rafale up to 2065, so that's viable for us since it will at least go through one more French-funded upgrade when our jets come up for MLUs. However the SH is now getting its last USN-funded upgrade, after which it will be set up for retirement. While the IN may risk it with a measley 36 jets, the IAF will definitely not risk 150-200 jets on such an uncertain future.
For the navy, if the Rafale is not workable, then I'd actually say we should abandon MRCBF and go for NGAD once it hits IOC before 2030. In the meantime, we should upgrade the Mig-29K to Mig-35 standards. The Mig-29s can then be replaced by TEDBF from 2035-40. And the 3rd carrier, which is surely going to get delayed, will get the NGAD.