People's Liberation Army Air Force : News & Discussions

It's not about political survival, rather it's about Xi's ego and hunger for absolute power. I would not generalize about communists. Please note it's the same communists who built this economy. The current issue is strictly created by Xi and his cronies. He has been working on this for past many years and got rid of all his adversaries. Basically he is in complete control of army, police and his party without any checks and balances whatsoever. If he destroys the economy by his stupid actions, then he can never rebuild it in his lifetime. Please note, China's economic growth was fueled by US outsourcing. The issue is Xi doesn't care. He just wants to rule like an emperor till his death.

One of friend (hard core communist part supporter) commented Xi should be killed and hung in front of forbidden palace :).

It has more to do with how communism works. I'm sure all these guys, Stalin, Mao, even Xi, were all standup guys when they started. But communism messes with your head, grabbing power is all about survival. Even the best of people can turn murderous when you put them in a fighting pit. Communism is built around "power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely".
 
Can't compare oil and gas with a smartphone. People can live without a phone for years, but not without energy.

If TSMC is crippled, then people will just use what they have. Any supply-side shock will be temporary because demand will still be there. The most important fab in the world is not TSMC, it's Intel. Unlike smartphones, economies cannot survive without laptops and PCs. Other than that, there are plenty of industrial-grade fabs coming up, ie, 14/22nm to 65nm, like two upcoming fabs in India. Least profitable, but most critical; for transportation, factories, power plants etc.

The US must be building the fabs at war-footing, so it's not a surprise to me. Personally I believe you will be surprised in a year or two. At least it won't come as a surprise to me if their production rate ends up covering most of TSMC's supply.

Frankly, the world needs an oversupply of fab production, even if govts have to absorb some losses. It's a strategic sector, it cannot be dictated by a profit and loss statement.

The massive flurry of semiconductor activity across the board is one of the biggest clues to the possibility of an invasion of Taiwan actually happening.

Anyway, lots of jobs for Indians coming up. So 2000-day visa appointments. :ROFLMAO:
It’s not just smartphone, it’s about everything. In US almost everything comes from China and life would come to standstill if trade is stopped. It’s not practical till alternate sources are arranged.

You have no idea how important TSMC is 😊. Just imagine the economic impact of trillions worth products can’t be produced. Of course you and me can survive with an old phone. But what will we do if the phone breaks down and nothing is available to buy.
Just check out the automobile market. Pre Covid I could easily get 6-10% discount on any luxury car except Tesla. This year I paid $10k above the MSRP for a BMW. Honda and Toyotas are being sold at $15k above MSRP. This is the situation when there is just some shortage in Semiconductors. Imagine if situation if TSMC is taken out. It will be complete chaos!!

Anyway, whatever happens India will be the winner in the end. It’s up to Indian government and business community how much they can grab 😊. Emperor Xi has provided a great opportunity to us 😬.
 
It has more to do with how communism works. I'm sure all these guys, Stalin, Mao, even Xi, were all standup guys when they started. But communism messes with your head, grabbing power is all about survival. Even the best of people can turn murderous when you put them in a fighting pit. Communism is built around "power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely".
It certain ways you are right. But even in the same CCP people like Deng and Hu Jintao understood the importance of economy and provided the space for it to grow.
 
It’s not just smartphone, it’s about everything. In US almost everything comes from China and life would come to standstill if trade is stopped. It’s not practical till alternate sources are arranged.

You have no idea how important TSMC is 😊. Just imagine the economic impact of trillions worth products can’t be produced. Of course you and me can survive with an old phone. But what will we do if the phone breaks down and nothing is available to buy.
Just check out the automobile market. Pre Covid I could easily get 6-10% discount on any luxury car except Tesla. This year I paid $10k above the MSRP for a BMW. Honda and Toyotas are being sold at $15k above MSRP. This is the situation when there is just some shortage in Semiconductors. Imagine if situation if TSMC is taken out. It will be complete chaos!!

Anyway, whatever happens India will be the winner in the end. It’s up to Indian government and business community how much they can grab 😊. Emperor Xi has provided a great opportunity to us 😬.

If the Chinese invade soon, then it should happen as you said. But that would hurt the Chinese too. So I think even they will wait until they get some competency in this sector before trying to shut down Taiwan's industry. Think about it from their perspective. A war would mean complete semiconductor sanctions from all the producers of semiconductors, which means they really, really need to catch up domestically first.

The US sanctions on China have been designed to delay their advancements. The more the Chinese are delayed, the more time the US gets to catch up with Taiwan's production, even military production.

A build up for an invasion will be a slow process. Once it begins, just buy a backup phone or two for yourself and your family from a store, not online, and maintain the packaging. Once supply begins after a few years, you can resell it, unused. Problemo solved.

In India's case, we will need to replace silicon if we want to catch up.
 
I would expect the war within 2023. China's economy is in deep trouble and the social unrest is growing. A war with India will certainly help diverting the attention without attracting any international sanction.
There are 3 significant dates which are important to consider. 2027 which is the centenary year of the establishment of the PLA by which time the expected modernization & theatreization is expected to be completed , 2035 when military theories are to be imbibed by the Chinese armed forces & ofcourse 2049 the centenary year of the establishment of the PRC.


Now these dates have been around on twitter for quite some time but Shekhar Gupta has come out with a timely article on the Pentagon's latest report on China's armed forces , it's doctrines & it's approach towards Taiwan.

If Xi wants to grab Taiwan, he can't wait till 2030. By 2030, the world would have significantly reduced their dependencies on China and Xi will not have much bargaining power. He has to act fast so that the world is forced to turn a blind eye and some middle ground will be reached (like Hong Kong model).

We need to keep only 2027 in mind . The rest of the dates don't matter to us. Incidentally 2049 was the original cut off date for the integration of Taiwan into the PRC which would've been ideal from China's stand point . By that time had they followed Deng's maxim of hiding their strength & biding their time they would've been in an impregnable position .

But something called Xi happened.

It's been long speculated that 2030 onwards the count down will begin for Taiwan & India & from there to the second island chain , The senkakus , Japan, ECS ,RoK ,etc . 2030 coz China may need a buffer to complete it's modernization & fine tune it's war gaming & ORBAT .

Except for the IAF & a war time manufacturing plan & wherewithal for rapid replenishment of ammo & to a lesser extent platforms , I expect all other bases to be covered by then .

Does this mean they won't initiate before 2030 with us from our perspective ? In all probability they won't unless they're gravely provoked or there's a black swan event.

I don't think the combat experience at Himalayas will help much in Taiwan.
It could also be that after Galwan the CCP realised that this would be a greater endeavour than they envisaged & that after execution of all their plans successfully , they'd require a period of 3-4 yrs to rejuvenate themselves apart from replenishment of their stores . Hence 2030 India & 2035 for Taiwan or vice versa. 2049 for the US.
 
I Still don't Understand, why are going to mess with India.
There is no political gain(For CCP) or economic gain in that.
Three reasons. 1. To break India's moral and show off their victory to the world. 2. Test their weapon system and war fighting capabilities before invading Taiwan. 3. Divert attention from internal issues.
 
But something called Xi happened.

It's been long speculated that 2030 onwards the count down will begin for Taiwan & India & from there to the second island chain , The senkakus , Japan, ECS ,RoK ,etc . 2030 coz China may need a buffer to complete it's modernization & fine tune it's war gaming & ORBAT .

Except for the IAF & a war time manufacturing plan & wherewithal for rapid replenishment of ammo & to a lesser extent platforms , I expect all other bases to be covered by then .

Does this mean they won't initiate before 2030 with us from our perspective ? In all probability they won't unless they're gravely provoked or there's a black swan event.
I'm not sure whether China included Covid and Xi into their calculation when they came up with these dates.

The US/European companies operated under this assumption that China will remain business friendly. However, that trust is completely shattered and now everyone is looking for alternate options. The Covid lockdowns and Xi's high handedness is only pushing everyone to move faster. Many companies have relocated their foreign staffs and not planning to send them back anytime soon. The crackdown on protesters has seriously dented China's image as a business friendly nation. China will not cease to be world's factory overnight, but the chance of any significant future growth is very very slim. IMHO China has reached it's peak and now it's only downhill from here. They can cook the books or continue to build useless stuff by taking debt to show growth. But that's not real growth and only lead to more painful fall.
 
I'm not sure whether China included Covid and Xi into their calculation when they came up with these dates.
Agree with you there but the real hurdles w.r.t the Wuhan virus is hitting them now , not in the past 2 yrs unlike the rest of the world.

Xi is the person who brought those dates forward though I think a certain amount of ground work would've been done in Hu Jintao's tenure. They did start their belligerence then though compared to what it's now & will be tomorrow , it was child's play.

The US/European companies operated under this assumption that China will remain business friendly. However, that trust is completely shattered and now everyone is looking for alternate options. The Covid lockdowns and Xi's high handedness is only pushing everyone to move faster. Many companies have relocated their foreign staffs and not planning to send them back anytime soon. The crackdown on protesters has seriously dented China's image as a business friendly nation. China will not cease to be world's factory overnight, but the chance of any significant future growth is very very slim. IMHO China has reached it's peak and now it's only downhill from here. They can cook the books or continue to build useless stuff by taking debt to show growth. But that's not real growth and only lead to more painful fall.
Wheels within wheels . US is busy phucking EU. It's like the corn being ground to powder between 2 millstones viz US & Russia . To think , people here were warning the Europeans what to expect but the French contingent here were still in Bastille Day spirit about Ukraine & the US supporting Europe like a rock while Paddy here who can never tell the difference between his a r s e & backside was busy pooh poohing us out here . Some village was & is definitely missing it's idiot.

Meanwhile Macron having tripped & fallen badly on his face is pretending to inspect the flooring.


Besides , Didn't the US come out with massive subsidies vide that Inflation Reduction Act , apart from the CHIPS Act which again has huge subsidies plus the Climate Change subsidies for industry .



Given the energy crisis in Europe , I doubt the EU would do anything to disturb their supply chains in China while the companies in Europe flock to the US for the generous terms they're being offered there.

Intel which was to set up an SMC wafer fabrication facility in Germany maybe rethinking their venture.

In the interim China benefits without lifting a finger. Europe pays a huge price for not learning from history & depending on borrowed arms read mercenaries for security only to have them hold their hosts by their pebble sized balls to ransom . @Picdelamirand-oil ; @A Person

Meanwhile Brexiter politicians mostly conservatives are busy selling their snake oil to their constituencies that Brexit wasn't anything to do with improving the lives of the average Briton but to bring the EU down to match UK's falling economy.

To think barely 3 yrs ago this time , the Conservatives won a landslide & the party in labour was reduced to it's worst showing in decades. You know the upshot of this , Paddy . Irrespective of how successful Sunak is in salvaging what he can with your economy , the party in labour comes back to power in 2023 hopefully with a landslide to break all their previous records.

Hope you know what that portends for your benighted future. You're right Paddy . They go doling out money to all & sundry & you end up further up shit creek without a paddle & a leaky boat come 2027.

Man , writing this analysis made my day , nay my week , my month . I haven't had such a delightful feeling of schadenfreude since ages .

Not everything is gloom & doom though Paddy. Look at the bright side - Biden is probably the only Irishman to pull the most massive con job ever in the history of the world & the history of your people . It's called the exception which proves the rule . I've turned into a huge huge fan of Irish Joe. If Macron & the Europeans complain he can always act absent minded.

@BMD
 
No sir we are not. Our AF is fully confident of thrashing the Chinese if they dare attack us. Our fighters combined with our IADS and topography can deal with PLAAF with aplomb.

He is damn right. J-20 has already switched to WS-15 engines that has 105 KN thrust in dry and 181 KN thrust in wet mode and it uses two of them. This engine would give huge kinematic advantage to J-20 over your Stubby(362 kn vs 190 kn) and would also allow J-20 to supercruise.

They have also developed Raptor like 2-D TVC nozzles for this engine. Chinese are leaving no stones unturned in case of J-20, IMO.


Sensors? Yes, I agree that F35 is number 1 fighter in this regard. But J-20 is no joke. Recently PAF pilots did a exercise between J10 and F16. J10 tracked F16 with its IRST, totally radar silent and blew away your Vipers. Chinese sensors have improved by leaps and bounds.

So count then out at your own peril, me thinks😎

Yeah, disappointingly fast. Best case for us is if they take until 2030 to get a mature one operational.
When I claimed in post no. 331 that Chinese have already put WS-15 engines in J-20, nobody believed me. What about now?

Random, the way they are progressing, we need Su-57MKI to quickly counter it. A supercruising J-20 is a nightmare because unlike F-22, Chinese have designed it to have predictive maintenance(read more sorties and less maintenance) plus very impressive endurance on internal fuel. Rafale F4 or F5 won't cut it.
 
Random, the way they are progressing, we need Su-57MKI to quickly counter it. A supercruising J-20 is a nightmare because unlike F-22, Chinese have designed it to have predictive maintenance(read more sorties and less maintenance) plus very impressive endurance on internal fuel. Rafale F4 or F5 won't cut it.

The supercruise bit isn't such a big problem because even the Rafale can supercruise. The problem is the new engine will be able to help the J-20 operate effectively from the Tibetan plateau, enough to remove any advantages the Rafale has in terms of turnaround and sortie rates.

Only the IAF can answer if the Rafale is enough or not.
 
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The supercruise bit isn't such a big problem because even the Rafale can supercruise.
This new engine would provide sustained supercruise around Mach 1.8 like Raptor. A supercruising Rafale with external stores and weapons would have less fuel efficiency. The best and most efficient cruise speed for Rafale is still Mach 0.85.

With higher dash speed J-20 can ingress and egress with impunity. We need Su-57MKI.

Su-57 has been designed to counter all these stealth planes. By the time our AMCA comes, China may even field a 6th gen by then.
The problem is the new engine will be able to help the J-20 operate effectively from the Tibetan plateau, enough to remove any advantages the Rafale has in terms of turnaround and sortie rates.
This.


Only the IAF can answer if the Rafale is enough or not.
For upto 2030, Rafale is good enough to whoop anything Chinese throw at us. But post that🤷‍♂️
 
When I claimed in post no. 331 that Chinese have already put WS-15 engines in J-20, nobody believed me. What about now?

Random, the way they are progressing, we need Su-57MKI to quickly counter it. A supercruising J-20 is a nightmare because unlike F-22, Chinese have designed it to have predictive maintenance(read more sorties and less maintenance) plus very impressive endurance on internal fuel. Rafale F4 or F5 won't cut it.
Su-57 won't cut it either because it isn't a proper stealth aircraft.
 
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As per Western propaganda.
No, as per just looking at the damn thing. Please, just look at one closely and then look at a J-20.

It's got a bloody luneburg lens on the front of it FFS. Also see all the ridiculous protrusions, crappy paint and panel gaps.

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