For ground attack , we are well underestimating the mirages, which has been flying in LAC for past 2 years seamlessly & possibly the most acclimatized. In any chinky misadventure these will target entire chinese installations in the first go across the LAC.
Pralay and Shaurya: Conventional Strike Surface-to-Surface Missiles
- Thread starter Ashwin
- Start date
Wow, so much crap in one post. How do people find the time?
Anyway, I have considered asset transfers from other fronts already. The Chinese have 5 commands, 4 frontline commands and 1 reserve command. The WTC has 2 corps, and I have added 2 corps extra, 1 from the reserve command and another from a frontline command based in Yunnan. So that's 4 corps. Do they need more than that? I don't know, and I don't think so. Nevertheless, they can always add another corps from elsewhere. So at least 4-5 corps in total, or about 24-30 combat brigades versus the original 12 combat brigades, effectively the same strength as the active US Army.
Similarly, 250 J-20s sound impressive. But once divided amongst 5 commands, it's just 50 jets each. 500 J-20s would mean 100 jets for each command. Is it enough? It's more than enough. But I've still considered an extra 100 jets transferred from other commands. 200 J-20s is a massive, massive force. Do recall the Americans have only 123 combat-coded F-22s with 20 more in reserve.
The Indian Strike Corps that's been changed to MSC has lost its armoured division and has been requipped for mountain warfare. When they say dual-tasked, it's no longer suitable for warfare in the plains. You could say it's more suited to deal with PoL. The armoured division previously connected to it has been turned into a strategic reserve.
As for why modern warfare takes little time, this video should help understand how quickly the Nazis won their victories until they screwed up against the SU.
Pay particular attention to Poland, Norway, France and the first 6 months of Op Barbarossa. It all happens in the first 5 minutes.
(Would recommend with audio.)
Poland lasts 15 seconds, Norway lasts 12, and France lasts 18. While WW2 lasted years, the actual fighting in Europe was very short 'cause of maneuver warfare. Then it picked up again in 1944 while the SU slowly ate into the Nazis via attrition warfare.
Western analysts believed the war in Ukraine would finish within a few days to a week, and the video is proof of that. Similarly, if the Russians stop half-arsing it, they can finish the war in a week or less. So it wasn't an unrealistic assessment. Ukraine also managed to take back territory in just a few days when they did their offensive in Aug-Sept. Similarly, India is expected to take Pakistan that rapidly, within just a few days.
So what the Chinese are hoping to do against India is the same as what the Nazis did in Europe, ie, finish any offensive in a matter of days. What we are hoping is what the Soviets managed to do at 5:15, except we want to be able to do that from day 1 instead of 180.
It's the first few days that determine the course of the war. If nothing much happens during that time, ie, within a week, then the war devolves into a war of attrition. In the Sino-India context, a war of attrition is meaningless simply 'cause it's not existential to either party.
During WW2, all countries were fighting for the right to live. A Sino-India war does not carry the same amount of risk. A Sino-India war turning into an existential war can only happen within the thresholds of WW3.
A Sino-India war is only possible within the next few years, when they believe they have the infrastructure, economic and military advantage. After 2030, it's very unlikely due to the militarisation of Japan and the US, apart from India playing catch up. They will actually push for peace with India by then. Which is why all we have to do is buy time. It's the Chinese who are running out of time.
Anyway, I have considered asset transfers from other fronts already. The Chinese have 5 commands, 4 frontline commands and 1 reserve command. The WTC has 2 corps, and I have added 2 corps extra, 1 from the reserve command and another from a frontline command based in Yunnan. So that's 4 corps. Do they need more than that? I don't know, and I don't think so. Nevertheless, they can always add another corps from elsewhere. So at least 4-5 corps in total, or about 24-30 combat brigades versus the original 12 combat brigades, effectively the same strength as the active US Army.
Similarly, 250 J-20s sound impressive. But once divided amongst 5 commands, it's just 50 jets each. 500 J-20s would mean 100 jets for each command. Is it enough? It's more than enough. But I've still considered an extra 100 jets transferred from other commands. 200 J-20s is a massive, massive force. Do recall the Americans have only 123 combat-coded F-22s with 20 more in reserve.
The Indian Strike Corps that's been changed to MSC has lost its armoured division and has been requipped for mountain warfare. When they say dual-tasked, it's no longer suitable for warfare in the plains. You could say it's more suited to deal with PoL. The armoured division previously connected to it has been turned into a strategic reserve.
As for why modern warfare takes little time, this video should help understand how quickly the Nazis won their victories until they screwed up against the SU.
Pay particular attention to Poland, Norway, France and the first 6 months of Op Barbarossa. It all happens in the first 5 minutes.
(Would recommend with audio.)
Poland lasts 15 seconds, Norway lasts 12, and France lasts 18. While WW2 lasted years, the actual fighting in Europe was very short 'cause of maneuver warfare. Then it picked up again in 1944 while the SU slowly ate into the Nazis via attrition warfare.
Western analysts believed the war in Ukraine would finish within a few days to a week, and the video is proof of that. Similarly, if the Russians stop half-arsing it, they can finish the war in a week or less. So it wasn't an unrealistic assessment. Ukraine also managed to take back territory in just a few days when they did their offensive in Aug-Sept. Similarly, India is expected to take Pakistan that rapidly, within just a few days.
So what the Chinese are hoping to do against India is the same as what the Nazis did in Europe, ie, finish any offensive in a matter of days. What we are hoping is what the Soviets managed to do at 5:15, except we want to be able to do that from day 1 instead of 180.
It's the first few days that determine the course of the war. If nothing much happens during that time, ie, within a week, then the war devolves into a war of attrition. In the Sino-India context, a war of attrition is meaningless simply 'cause it's not existential to either party.
During WW2, all countries were fighting for the right to live. A Sino-India war does not carry the same amount of risk. A Sino-India war turning into an existential war can only happen within the thresholds of WW3.
A Sino-India war is only possible within the next few years, when they believe they have the infrastructure, economic and military advantage. After 2030, it's very unlikely due to the militarisation of Japan and the US, apart from India playing catch up. They will actually push for peace with India by then. Which is why all we have to do is buy time. It's the Chinese who are running out of time.
Quite possible. Not everything need be in the public domain though what're the numbers we're looking at ? Ideally it should be a minimum of 1000 nos each with something approaching 2000 each to be in the comfort zone .
That's not all , we need production facilities to churn them out by the dozens in war time preparations for which start now .
You guys are either not getting what I've written about repeatedly or are pretending not to get it . Where did I compare India to Ukraine ?
Chinese attacks on our hinterland will be met with equal force provided we're in a position to deliver such blows. With 100-200 nos of Pralay & especially Shaurya you really aren't going to put the fear of God in them for they've one of the best networked & layered IADs in service & will shortly be deploying their BMDs in full strength too . Russia's helping with the latter .
At least read the articles of Lt Gen Hooda & AVM Subramanian I've linked where they've highlighted the number of satellites China has In orbit till date not taking into account what they'd be launching from now up until 2030.
How effective is our ASF against a minimum of 800 FAs that can & will be thrown at us come 2030 or even today assuming conflict breaks out in the next couple of months ? The Rafales will be able the hold their own but the MKIs ? What about a whole host of 50-75 FAs flying in repeated sorties where our MKIs are known to require 24 hrs or thereabouts as down time between sorties.And I think when Random says India has 300 ASF, he means 262 Su-30MKIs + 36 Rafales = 298 fighters. Currently, our most potent fighter is Rafale followed by the Sukhoi. It's this combination of Rafale and Su-30s that our enemies will need to fear, IMO.
Rest, upto Random
Then there's the issue I started my post with a few days back of massive repeated missile barrages , cyber attacks preceding the air assaults on all our frontline bases upto 100 kms from the LAC perhaps deeper within. Why would they risk facing these FAs in air when they can destroy them on the ground which brings me back to my opening paragraph in this post - how many BMs or TBMs do we plan to have in the next few yrs / have in our inventory till date.
Apart from our existing conventional ballistic capabilities that can hit China's hinterland, the IAF has dropped hints of buying the Tu-160 as well.
The current IAF expressly ruled out the Tu-160 acquisition in a PC a few months ago when rumours were flying thick & fast we'd go in for half to one squadron of it , yet here we are revisiting the revisited .
You want to strike chine with A5,with conventional warhead, may be you will have Xi's pvt number so that before launching A5,you will be able to tell him thats its mere a conventional attack, dont use nuke on us.^^
While you may continue your debate with Random,
Forget about the fact that we can also put conventional warheads in Agni series missiles to hit the 'real China'. Also forget about Shaurya/Pralay. Who's stopping India from attacking mainland China using Su-30MKI and extended range Brahmos combo? Sure if we are upto it, we can find loopholes inside Chinese IADS.
And I think when Random says India has 300 ASF, he means 262 Su-30MKIs + 36 Rafales = 298 fighters. Currently, our most potent fighter is Rafale followed by the Sukhoi. It's this combination of Rafale and Su-30s that our enemies will need to fear, IMO.
Rest, upto Random
And mki with ER brahmos cannot hit anywhere inside china.
Mere 36 Rafale cannot inflict fear on china, not on pak too. Its your nukes inflicting fear on china.
They're quite good but they lack AESA radars for starters. Scope for ground attack isn't much on the LAC , it's deeper in the hinterland . Mirages lack the endurance i.e - combat radius for that . They'd be used more in a supporting role to the Rafales & MKIs .
The joker in the pack is the MiG-29 UPG. We've no clue how'd they perform ? Apart from these 4 , our cupboard is empty .
Absolutely agree. No two ways about what you wrote.
Our BMD is superior to Chinese BMD. Within few years, its coverage zone would increase too. And I agree, we need Shaurya/Pralay in thousands.
What about MKI? Well, it's not as hopeless as often portrayed. Look at the sorties Russians have been able to pull with their Su-30SMs and Su-35S. It's been very impressive.
And about MKI's combat ability as of now? Well it depends. If say I-Derby ER is integrated along with ASRAAM, then MKI will swat Chinese Jets. Very soon, Dhruti along with our own jammers is coming online(contract is already out). MKI's combat potency is going to get a huge leap with the inclusion of this new gen cutting edge RWR/EW suite.
One may say, what's the big deal. But then I would like to draw their attention towards F-22's AN/ALR-94 or Rafale's SPECTRA. Both these self-protection cum advance EW suite are most secretive and arguably most expensive items on both these respective super advance fighter jets.
Our MKI is entering this elite club pretty damn soon.
We have thousands of Prithvi(es)and maybe Brahmos too, to do the same to them if they dare try that at the moment. With Prahaar(Pranash), Pralay and Shaurya, our strength of conventional strike via a dedicated Rocket Force will come to full force within few years from now.
1 on 1, no country in the world can hope to fight and conquer India. India is a military superpower which is NOT to be messed with. Otherwise it won't end well for the other side.
Till then, MKI as a mini-bomber shall suffice
Welcome back.
Never underestimate the Vajra
Very dangerous jet as a ASF fighter. Once R-77-1 and Astra are integrated, even more so.
The MKI needs Derby ER for now. The long term plan is the MLU anyway. We have numbers superiority in this segment. Both Astra Mk2 and Derby ER are undergoing flight tests on the MKI. The only question is if the Rafale + MKI combo can upset the J-20A/B, the IAF believes so.
The IAF Chief may have said something about the Tu-160, but I don't buy that. 'Cause the reasons he gave do not apply to it. Potential disinformation at play here. The only issue is the Russians need to finish their orders first. So it's gonna take a while before it comes up in the news again. Of course, I'd rather see us being offered the PAK DA instead.
The MKI's 32 hours downtime is just a cumulative total required for maintenance over a long period during peacetime.
The IAF Chief may have said something about the Tu-160, but I don't buy that. 'Cause the reasons he gave do not apply to it. Potential disinformation at play here. The only issue is the Russians need to finish their orders first. So it's gonna take a while before it comes up in the news again. Of course, I'd rather see us being offered the PAK DA instead.
The MKI's 32 hours downtime is just a cumulative total required for maintenance over a long period during peacetime.
According to some sources, integration and flight trials are already complete. No news as of yet about firing. Lets hope we've this missile in substantial numbers when the push comes to shove in the Himalayas.
Not only Derby-ER and Astra 2, even ASRAAM is going to be vital. Efficacy of radar guided missiles against VLO fighters is yet to be seen. Yes our future dual pulse missiles have AESA seeker but imaging infrared missiles like ASRAAM and Mica-IR are going to be absolutely vital to swat J-20s.
Rafale with Mica-IR will be a real killer. Chinese won't know what hit them, lol. MKI needs ASRAAM(hopefully the latest block which England has got) and Mica-IR. The new digita-RWR would allow MKI passive targeting. ASRAAM would do a great job in near BVR range(almost 50 kms).
Absolutely. Still remember RKS Bhadauria sir said exactly this when he was in France. We definitely should trust our armed forces than just cribbing about everything.
As per Russian sources PAK DA is going to be unveiled this year. But TU-160M2 which Russians are getting now has its own advantages being a Mach 2 capable bomber.
IMO, we should have got 114 Rafales by now, shouldn't have dropped out of FGFA and should have joined PAK DA program. Missing all these was serious oversight by our war planners.
True. Multiple exercises conducted by IAF have already validated MKI-'s war time availability. In fact, sources within IAF have termed it as 'our two front war ace', after MKI's performance in these exercises. IAF knows what they are talking about along with those who follow them.
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Currently Russians have only one type of Bomber in service, its SU34. It is short legged & not survivable too. Yeas technically we can call TU160 a bomber, but it more of a missile carrier, or atleast it performed that role only. What we need a bomber, which can deliver bomblets & missiles, just we seeing with US bombers. Winning a war with missiles alone is impossible, even US will not achieve the objectives with missiles alone. Even the smartest bomb units cost less than the most missiles out there.
So if at all we really want abomber with IAF, instead about with TU or fancy PAK DA (which eventually will be dream only Russian project), we should pursue for second hand B1 or if US willing to sell, B21s. I dont think that US just brought B1 to india during an airshow held here as mere a goodwill gesture or show off.
Where do you plan on using free fall bombs or guided bombs from a lumbering aircraft when, your two primary opponents have pretty decent AD? Or are you thinking of bombing Afghanistan?
If i am not wrong Baghdad was the most defended area in world outside Moscow, in 1991.
Tu-160 is literally the bomber!. Su-34 is strike fighter or fighter bomber like our Jaguar. Where do you come up with such hot takes?
And Iraq was not a nuclear armed power. US fighting Iraq is like India fighting Maldives. Then we can do with Lancasters. No need for anything else.
And yea, as usual you are wrong. The initial strikes were by F-117. Followed by the rest of the teens and then finally everything was sanitised the B-52. You simply cannot use these in dense ADC ares
Nuke factor has nothing to do with surface to air/air to air capabilities . What you think about H6 then? On par with B1?
And if you are doing initial strike with TU160 on Chinese, you expect to get away without getting any harm? Get alife man. If you are inducting TU160 ( which i am not thinking it gonna happen anyway, ref our IAF chief statement on bomber), you have the all risk of inducting B1 or vice versa. But on other hand, if you are inducting B1, then you can do whatever a TU160 with B1, ie as a missile truck and also can do extra things like carpet bombing.
Read the post again.
Ok let me try dumbing this down for you.
In what scenario do you see dumb or guided bombs dropped either on Pakistan or China?
Shhh.......dont spoil the fun of our in house Shuklaji.
Read the post
Ok in what scenario firing few missiles will bring victory to you? Number counts, not the fancy missiles. You should know why even NATO using bomblets mains as an offensive weapon over missile barrages, you dimwit.
ASRAAM and MICA IR have already been integrated on the MKI. And yeah, Derby ER and Astra Mk2 are nearing completion. I just hope we don't end up in a situation where we will place orders for Derby ER after it's finished tests, delaying the program by a year or two.
The first and foremost rule for a defence enthusiast, myself included, is to have faith in the decision the forces make, and not second guess them. Importing weapons is not a fun experience for those involved, sometimes it can even be a humiliating experience. The forces are not fans of imports, but they end up doing so out of compulsion.
The bomber thing, it should come into play only after we have signed the MRFA and LCA Mk2 deals. So, assuming it's done within this 5-year cycle, it should come into play 2028 onwards. The same for Su-57 vs F-35 etc. Normally, the Russians wouldn't export the PAK DA, but the post-sanctions world limits their options.
We dropped out of FGFA 'cause DRDO has the ability to develop the same tech, or so they say. AMCA wasn't supposed to be as advanced as it has become now, so the change in AMCA has made FGFA unnecessary. Now the only real options left are stopgap or license production. Whatever the case, whether we go for it or not, it will only happen after MRFA is done.