Project 75 India Diesel-electric Submarine Programs (SSK) : Updates and Discussions

[aditya g]

At present I doubt the IN will proceed with the Project 75 I tender . Discretion is the better part of valour.

With so many uncertainties surrounding the project they'd be better advised to focus on getting the 3 additional Scorpenes , successfully commission our desi AIP , get cracking on Project 76 put Project 75 I in the cold storage only to revisit it in 4 years time when the situation clears up & the technologies they desire are validated.

From start P75I is designed to fail.

However recent article by Print suggests that things will move now as navantia is confident on winning basis better commercials.

IN is now potentially starting a situation of 4-5 submarine constructions happening in parallel;

SSK Project-75 Flight-II @ MDL
SSK Project-75I @ MDL or L&T
SSN Project-77 @ SBC
SSBN @ SBC
Midget submarines at MDL or L&T

+ Kalvari class coming for major upgrades involving cutting the boat into 2 and increasing length!

 

[_Anonymous_]

From start P75I is designed to fail.

However recent article by Print suggests that things will move now as navantia is confident on winning basis better commercials.

IN is now potentially starting a situation of 4-5 submarine constructions happening in parallel;

SSK Project-75 Flight-II @ MDL
SSK Project-75I @ MDL or L&T
SSN Project-77 @ SBC
SSBN @ SBC
Midget submarines at MDL or L&T

+ Kalvari class coming for major upgrades involving cutting the boat into 2 and increasing length!

I'd tell you the problem with Navantia , the obvious ones about the way they designed & went about the construction of their submarines notwithstanding.

Most of the important systems inside their submarines including their CMS , sensors & their AIP too has US made components. Look up their AIP , the make & the composition of it for perspective.

Either you accept them on an as is basis or you ask for replacements which in turn would have to be tested. Comparatively speaking , Germany is more self sustained . It's a single shop window for all your submarine needs.

 

[Ankit Kumar]

I'd tell you the problem with Navantia , the obvious ones about the way they designed & went about the construction of their submarines notwithstanding.

Most of the important systems inside their submarines including their CMS , sensors & their AIP too has US made components. Look up their AIP , the make & the composition of it for perspective.

Either you accept them on an as is basis or you ask for replacements which in turn would have to be tested. Comparatively speaking , Germany is more self sustained . It's a single shop window for all your submarine needs.

The problem with Navantia is that DRDO PAFC and Naval Groups Gen 2 AIP is more proven than their AIP at this moment.

And in all likelihood DRDO AIP will get certified in water before the Spanish one.

So if P75I moves forward with Spain in the current format, the very fact that German AIP albiet smaller than the proposed AIP , but was proven in water will ensure in a political shitstorm for BJP with allegations of corruption.

Therefore in it's current form, P75I will not move forward.

Navy will be forced to drop it's proven AIP requirements.

And the moment it does so, Naval Group comes back into the picture.

 

[randomradio]

Funny how a post meant for @Ankit Kumar who had originally claimed to have bookmarked my prediction got a reply from my biggest fan, and in turn earned me a pat on the back and a cookie.

For all those interested, an American company called Carlyle is out to buy TKMS' submarine arm.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/carlyle-kfw-join-forces-effort-buy-thyssenkrupp-warship-division-sources-say-2024-06-14/

PS: Choosing new electronics is desirable. It's way better than getting stuck with stock tech, which is typically previous gen. For example, replacing old gen RBE2 AESA with new gen Uttam Mk2 on IN Rafales.

PPS: We can't start our own program without P75I. We don't have the tech available for it today. P75I will give us the roadmap for P76.

 

[randomradio]

WDB and DRDO will be finishing up the paper design of P76 next year. Construction is expected to begin in 2029, if they stick to the current plan. So P75I is not in competition with P76. The goal is to finish P75I , 2034-39, before the first P76 is delivered, 2039+.

Furthermore, MDL is designing its own sub for P76 as a competitor, potentially leading to the speculation that DRDO/WDB want L&T to build P76, although, technically, both companies should be able to build it, a la, P-17 style, given the size of the program.

Also, it's likely that TKMS won T1, so Navantia wants bids opened for L1 discovery.

 

[South block]

WDB and DRDO will be finishing up the paper design of P76 next year. Construction is expected to begin in 2029, if they stick to the current plan. So P75I is not in competition with P76. The goal is to finish P75I , 2034-39, before the first P76 is delivered, 2039+.

Furthermore, MDL is designing its own sub for P76 as a competitor, potentially leading to the speculation that DRDO/WDB want L&T to build P76, although, technically, both companies should be able to build it, a la, P-17 style, given the size of the program.

Also, it's likely that TKMS won T1, so Navantia wants bids opened for L1 discovery.

Work on P 76 is going on since 2015..... Already a decade. You will keep hearing about this for many more years to come. Believe it when you see it.

from 2015...
Indian Navy's submarines to be made locally; Rs 60,000-cr P75 I will be last order from abroad

we have already begun the work, even though the requirement is of the future

 

[randomradio]

Work on P 76 is going on since 2015..... Already a decade. You will keep hearing about this for many more years to come. Believe it when you see it.

from 2015...
Indian Navy's submarines to be made locally; Rs 60,000-cr P75 I will be last order from abroad

Yeah, but they later prioritised the SSN, IIRC in 2017, and have now gone back to finalizing P76.

 

[randomradio]

The problem with Navantia is that DRDO PAFC and Naval Groups Gen 2 AIP is more proven than their AIP at this moment.

And in all likelihood DRDO AIP will get certified in water before the Spanish one.

So if P75I moves forward with Spain in the current format, the very fact that German AIP albiet smaller than the proposed AIP , but was proven in water will ensure in a political shitstorm for BJP with allegations of corruption.

Therefore in it's current form, P75I will not move forward.

Navy will be forced to drop it's proven AIP requirements.

And the moment it does so, Naval Group comes back into the picture.

NG is not at the same level as Spain.

Spain showed off an up to-spec, production-ready next gen AIP on land while the Germans showed off a not-up to-spec, old gen AIP in a submarine. But both AIPs are ahead of what NG has, neither up to spec, production-ready nor attached to a sub.

Another advantage Spain has over NG is their up to-spec AIP will be in the water before metal cutting on our own sub begins. By the time we sign a contract and set up a factory, the first AIP sub could very well have been commissioned, allowing time to bring in fixes.

So the start dates are different for both. IN will have to qualify NG's AIP as the first time operator a decade later versus Spain having to do the same within the next 3 years. Germany is in the same position as NG. They have to design an India-specific AIP which then has to be qualified a decade later by IN.

DRDO is merely a step behind Germany. They have a production-ready AIP, but not up to spec. A new design will have to be qualified a decade later.

So the risk for TKMS, NG and DRDO is pretty much the same. Spain has the least risky design. There will be enough time to fix any issues that Spain discovers, unlike the case with the other suppliers when problems show up during sea trials.

Also, past performance is not necessarily an indicator of success in the future, as the F-35 has shown. Germany has a history of screwing up export programs, unsure if that's politically motivated. I'd also prefer India buying something that an FOEM's own captive market also operates, which is why I supported Spain, Korea and Russia over France and Germany in this program.

 

[_Anonymous_]

The problem with Navantia is that DRDO PAFC and Naval Groups Gen 2 AIP is more proven than their AIP at this moment.

And in all likelihood DRDO AIP will get certified in water before the Spanish one.

So if P75I moves forward with Spain in the current format, the very fact that German AIP albiet smaller than the proposed AIP , but was proven in water will ensure in a political shitstorm for BJP with allegations of corruption.

Therefore in it's current form, P75I will not move forward.

Navy will be forced to drop it's proven AIP requirements.

And the moment it does so, Naval Group comes back into the picture.

I thought the IN was far more wise & for that matter professional as compared to the other armed forces to be falling into traps of their own making like RST does so practically always out here.

Anyway this tender seems to be going nowhere very fast .

 

[_Anonymous_]

Funny how RST continues to live upto his modern day name of Arjuna or Kanarjuna by shutting one eye to aim thereby seeing only what's convenient to him .

I clearly mentioned RST's track record in sooth saying aka predicting in that post which is still below abysmal levels standing at precisely 0/10 compared to OST who's retired last year with a stellar record of 7-8/10 .

Asking RST to launch a blog named Trishul Redux or a channel on YT for general entertainment seems futile for he's contented with an audience of 15-20 guys here.

On topic Carlyle is not just an American company it's a private equity company like Goldman Sucks which means while ownership will rest with them management will rest with ex TKMS people while ze German government will have a stake in it along with TKMS (?). This isn't a case of one Defence company taking over another like Boeing took over McDonnell Douglas & sealed its own doom .

I suppose RST thinks electronics are plug & play in submarines. You just connect them & watch the fun.

Frankly if the objective of Project 76 is to build < 2000 tons submarines why should Project 75 I matter ? If MDL is confident enough to embark on designing a submarine after working the Scorpenes & the IN including the predecessor to WDB were involved in the ATV which got converted to the INS Arihant way before the tender for the Scorpenes were drafted I really don't see any problems except IN erring on the side of caution perhaps overdoing it.

 

[randomradio]

Man, a lot of words, but no substance, as usual.

Electronics are now the least risky part of the sub. They have a very short gestation period and can be changed as long as they are up to NATO standards.

< 2000T for P76? What grass, what smoke? P76 is for up to 4000T. DRDO's developing a new AIP with double the capacity.

If Carlyle takes over, it's just bringing the USG into the picture. It's part of the WEF, hence part of the Global Elite, along with Goldman Sucks and Soros. The management of daily affairs may have expertise, but the decision-making chain will no longer be those guys anymore, just suits with an agenda, the same people who are currently busy destroying the entertainment industry, education sector and housing sector in the West. So, yeah, let's give them and David Rubenstein leverage over the IN. Carlyle's bid for TKMS is primarily a means for the USG to enter and interfere in the SSK market. And we are not looking to get into large strategic deals with the US, whether directly or indirectly.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Assuming those electronics are of short gestation periods =no testing . Just plug & play I assume . Real RocknRoll.

I did a search online . The only references to Project 76 I got were a couple of articles from the much maligned I D R W - one of which suggested the program would be split into 2 phases of 6 submarines each probably mirroring the Scorpene + Project 75 I , I assume , but the second article explicitly claimed the Project 76 was with about 3000 tonnes + displacement with 2x4 VLS cell plugs in built into the submarine.

Now whether this pertained to the whole project which means the requirements were modified assuming the requirement was genuine to begin with or it pertains to part of the project , is unknown. I didn't come across any other articles on the specifications of the Project 76. Then ofc the search I conducted was a cursory one. Who's the time to undertake deep dives after a tiring day's work unless you happen to be... ok let's not get there.

As I remarked before asking RST to link the sources of his once upon a time here..is futile. Does a magician reveal his tricks does a story teller reveal his sources ?

At the end of the day Carlyle is responsible to its shareholders not the DoD. If they keep screwing around with the company too much it'd collapse. This is precisely the reason ze German government has a stake in it & from what I understand TKMS too would retain a very small stake in it .

Besides this is either going to be a contract with ze German government or with sovereign guarantees from ze German government so that the contract doesn't get terminated abruptly. Meanwhile do enjoy RST's story telling skills in the last paragraph as well as sample his febrile imagination.

 

[Speedster1]

I'd say we've reached the point of no return now with P-75I. Tech trials are over and commercial bids are about to be opened. Spain would likely offer better terms to bag the lucrative Indian contract and break into the larger export market.

However, the IN seems to have eyes only for German Type 212/A mods at the moment. Some reports say that TKMS was literally cajoled by the IN to re-enter the competition after they quit the first time.

The IN has a history of operating German boats and rates them higher than our Kilos. As someone said earlier, all the key components are built by TKMS - makes them easier for the IN to deal with.

Spain, on the other hand, essentially offers a 'Super Scorpene' with US combat system and sensors (less freedom to customize and/or at high cost). With Batch 2 Kalvaris we're already there. S-80 might provide some incremental advantages, but not by a long shot.

 

[Ashwin]

What are the odds the IN won't go for a full electric LIB propulsion for P-75I? The boats won't hit the water until mid to late 2030s anyway.

NG is reportedly offering an evolved LIB-only Scorpene to Indonesia.

The three follow on Scorpene will be basically evolved Scorpene. With or without AIP we will have to wait and see.

NG is not at the same level as Spain.

Spain showed off an up to-spec, production-ready next gen AIP on land while the Germans showed off a not-up to-spec, old gen AIP in a submarine. But both AIPs are ahead of what NG has, neither up to spec, production-ready nor attached to a sub.

Another advantage Spain has over NG is their up to-spec AIP will be in the water before metal cutting on our own sub begins. By the time we sign a contract and set up a factory, the first AIP sub could very well have been commissioned, allowing time to bring in fixes.

So the start dates are different for both. IN will have to qualify NG's AIP as the first time operator a decade later versus Spain having to do the same within the next 3 years. Germany is in the same position as NG. They have to design an India-specific AIP which then has to be qualified a decade later by IN.

DRDO is merely a step behind Germany. They have a production-ready AIP, but not up to spec. A new design will have to be qualified a decade later.

So the risk for TKMS, NG and DRDO is pretty much the same. Spain has the least risky design. There will be enough time to fix any issues that Spain discovers, unlike the case with the other suppliers when problems show up during sea trials.

Also, past performance is not necessarily an indicator of success in the future, as the F-35 has shown. Germany has a history of screwing up export programs, unsure if that's politically motivated. I'd also prefer India buying something that an FOEM's own captive market also operates, which is why I supported Spain, Korea and Russia over France and Germany in this program.

The long-term advantage of creating a new private shipyard capable of building submarines is immense, and it's a risk worth taking.

 

[randomradio]

I'd say we've reached the point of no return now with P-75I. Tech trials are over and commercial bids are about to be opened. Spain would likely offer better terms to bag the lucrative Indian contract and break into the larger export market.

However, the IN seems to have eyes only for German Type 212/A mods at the moment. Some reports say that TKMS was literally cajoled by the IN to re-enter the competition after they quit the first time.

The IN has a history of operating German boats and rates them higher than our Kilos. As someone said earlier, all the key components are built by TKMS - makes them easier for the IN to deal with.

Spain, on the other hand, essentially offers a 'Super Scorpene' with US combat system and sensors (less freedom to customize and/or at high cost). With Batch 2 Kalvaris we're already there. S-80 might provide some incremental advantages, but not by a long shot.

Yeah, the IN will favor the better technical bid over financial considerations. It's not their job to look at the money portion of the tender.

The German sub is more automated and uses more modern tech. Even the hull design is more modern, although I don't think they are offering a non-magnetic hull. But they are yet to build a submarine of this size. The 212CD comes close though.

 

[mamiam23]

Yeah, the IN will favor the better technical bid over financial considerations. It's not their job to look at the money portion of the tender.

The German sub is more automated and uses more modern tech. Even the hull design is more modern, although I don't think they are offering a non-magnetic hull. But they are yet to build a submarine of this size. The 212CD comes close though.

That sub exists only on paper. What's with this automation, tech and all bullshit when it doesn't even exist? Navy has to bear risk for it.

 

[randomradio]

The long-term advantage of creating a new private shipyard capable of building submarines is immense, and it's a risk worth taking.

Most definitely. If we are to make a dent in the export market, only the efficiency of the private sector can keep up with international demands.

 

[randomradio]

That sub exists only on paper. What's with this automation, tech and all bullshit when it doesn't even exist? Navy has to bear risk for it.

Yeah, that's why I am in support of Navantia's offer. We need proven capabilities, experimental capabilities can be introduced on P76 and SSNs.

If the tender ends with only the tech round, then IN retains control. But if it goes to price discovery, then MoD takes over. Navantia will win the latter, but we have no way of knowing how the former will go.

 

[_Anonymous_]

I don't know what are our amateur experts on about. We've barely 6 new submarines after 25 odd years of the plan to build 25 in 30 years which has been successively & successfully downgraded over this time.

We're huffing & puffing to get the Project 75 I tender off the ground since the last 15 years if not the last 25 years & have yet to sign the deal for 3 more Scorpenes which we're still unaware of if it will come in the same shape & size as the previous ones or will be a larger version of it.

Then there's the issue of our own indigenous submarine. The MDL itself has enough space to commit 4-5 lines for simultaneous construction of submarines should we so choose. Instead of cultivating another yard why don't we amalgamate all public shipyards into 2 DPSUs - the East Coast Shipyards Ltd & the West Coast Shipyards Ltd , corporatize it if it isn't already so & eventually list it in the market with a view to privatizing it .

Here I don't mean selling it to a Pvt company but to have an independent management. We could start out by corporatization followed by listing in the exchange declare it a Navaratna before privatizing it .

For us to emerge as a submarine seller in the market we'd have to indigenously design & construct our own submarines vide Project 76 & gauge its performance for a few years. Otherwise there's the example of Navantia before you . Watch out for how many clients they land up with in the next few years for their submarines.

Where in all-this does anyone see the role of a Pvt shipyard to deliver leave alone thrive unless we forcibly allot a few numbers to a Pvt shipyard like L&T merely because they're around & compromise on economies of scale that we can get if the alloted tender goes to a single vendor ?

 

[Speedster1]

Even the hull design is more modern, although I don't think they are offering a non-magnetic hull.

If the Germans didn't part with non-mag tech for close ally Israel, we ain't gettin' it for sure.