I believe India will definitely get additional rafales, as we already paid $2B in india specific upgrades. Surely, that money justifies that India always had plans for additional rafale. Is that incorrect?
Although we paid a lot for the ISEs, the Rafale itself is going through its next evolution with new technologies, making the ISE quite redundant if we go for a new batch. And the IAF is much more interested in holding a tender, so they are likely pushing for other types of aircraft like force multipliers, helicopters etc instead of a second batch. Since the technological aspect of the purchase has already come in, they now need numbers, which is not enough with just a second batch.
There's also the problem that any potential second batch will only consist of the older F3R version instead of F4.2. The IAF obviously has a better view of the bigger picture than we do. They have a better idea of when they want new jets, along with the numbers and the technologies needed, also the time needed for these technologies to become available, aka the F-4.2. The French will get their first F4.2 only in 2027, so that's probably how long the IAF is also willing to wait.
I mean, if the IAF is given the choice of a second F3R batch by 2025-26 with an uncertain future for more orders versus a guaranteed order of 110+ jets or more of the F4.2 version from 2028 onwards, it's obvious what they will pick. They are pushing for the tender because they know they can't deal with the uncertainty created by 5-year elections. And they will also get information and access to all the latest technologies available within the next 5 years that have been in development since the previous tender trials.
Also, what are the other pressing demands?
Force multipliers, artillery, infantry modernisation, helicopters, transport aircraft etc. It's an endless list.
As pointed out before, with 36 Rafales, 40+83 LCAs, 33 Mig-29s and MKIs and at least one-third to half of the LCA Mk2s coming in this decade, along with MKI MLU, we are slightly better off than before when it comes to fighter jets, as long as MRFA is cleared.
If MRFA doesn't go through, then we need at least 2 more batches of 36 Rafales each at the bare minimum. But we will then struggle through even the 2040s with a severe shortage of 6-8 squadrons.