Wouldn't that be the case either way? Even if Rafale F4/F5 wins MRFA, the current F3R/ISE config would still be more proven & more reliable.
The issue being integration. We don't control the integration process for the F3R, but MRFA will provide that. Or we have to go to the French in case the MRFA victor is something else, which means taking the nuke to France, unlike what could be done with M2000. And we had the ability to integrate a lot of new tech on the M2000 as well. tech recieved during the Kargil War.
SFC's hardware isn't just the bomb itself or is plug and play, it requires quite a bit of integration. They even have their own podded systems that are not exposed to enemy observation versus conventional systems. Given that, if it's not MRFA, it's going to be an indigenous jet like LCA Mk2.
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N-delivery is a SFC mission. IAF is just required to provide the assets & the pilots. Just like IN's SSBNs for deterrence patrol missions.
As per the IAF, they do not want SFC to have dedicated jets for nukes. IAF plans to make operational jets available as and when required. So the Rafales that were bought is for the exclusive operational use of the IAF, not the SFC.
For example the F-22 could always carry the B-61 internally, but never received the nuke certification. It's the same rule for the Rafale F3R. Can but won't. AMCA is likely to get the same treatment. Basically the IAF, even USAF, do not want other organizations poking their noses in their most important business. It leads to unnecessary bureaucratic complications and affects operational preparedness. So neither air force will allow their best jet to be used for alternative purposes.
For now, and at least for another decade, the main nuke platforms will remain Jag and M2000. By 2035-40, LCA Mk2 could take over. And once AMCAs are in enough numbers, MRFA Rafales could add to it.
LCA Mk2 integration will be the fastest 'cause we control all the necessary tech, whereas we have to wait for MRFA Rafale's ToT to trickle in before it begins. Even if they begin the integration process 2 or 3 years after induction begins, it will take 5+ years to actually finish it, so the IAF will have enough jets for both.
There's also a possibility MRFA will never get nuke certification. And it's possible that a TEDBF squadron could be dedicated to the SFC instead, which would fully separate our conventional systems from strategic systems on land.
Standoff range will be an asset, but at what range it's actually employed depends on various factors. Either way, EMP hardening is a must, just in case.
You still need the aircraft to have a high enough degree of operational reliability. Basically, you need to figure out all the niggles it has.
Let's worry about it when they decide to make one. For now, all of our indigenous high-speed missiles are for conventional roles.