Syrian Civil War - News & Discussions

randomradio said:
If the Russians manage to hold Tartus, then it's possible. But if the Russians are forced to evacuate, then it's a meaningless deal for them.

And the Democrats want the war in Ukraine to continue. They are planning to pump more weapons and money in before handing over power to the Republicans. Given the situation, if there is any peace deal, it can only happen under Trump. Lavrov is openly complaining about Biden, so that shows there's no deal.
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America wants to leave this area and wants Israel to dominate. Israel moved swiftly and occupied complete golan heights and the buffer zone. Russians have not left Syria, they will remain in their Naval Base. America wanted the oil of Syria and a pipeline from Qatar to Europe to kill russian oil and economy. This has now been achieved. So USA will now stop operations in Syria. Russia agreed to it as It will get a huge chunk of Ukraine territory which accounted for over 33% of pre-war Ukraine economy and has nearly 50% of all natural resources.
 
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jetray said:
ur source is some german newspaper ? huh
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The Iranians and Arabs are the source. Clerics all over the ME are complaining about youth leaving Islam.

Here's the most obvious one:

50,000 mosques have closed in Iran - Are Iranians seeking truth outside of Islam? - All Arab News

Unrest and distrust of the Islamic government are leading many away from Islam; Evangelical broadcasts and ministries are leading many to Christ
allarab.news allarab.news

One of the biggest reasons is the Quran does not allow critical thinking, asking questions is a sin. But in the Internet era, questions are easily asked and answered. The more people understand the Quran, the more they are willing to leave Islam. While Christianity reformed in the 16th century, Islam's rigidity is going to be its own downfall.

Freedom is infectious after all.
 
vstol Jockey said:
America wants to leave this area and wants Israel to dominate. Israel moved swiftly and occupied complete golan heights and the buffer zone. Russians have not left Syria, they will remain in their Naval Base. America wanted the oil of Syria and a pipeline from Qatar to Europe to kill russian oil and economy. This has now been achieved. So USA will now stop operations in Syria. Russia agreed to it as It will get a huge chunk of Ukraine territory which accounted for over 33% of pre-war Ukraine economy and has nearly 50% of all natural resources.
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There are a few contradictions here.

The Kurds cannot survive without American assistance so their presence in Al Tanf is required. Especially if the corridor between Israel and Kurdish territory is to exist. Let's not forget the massive Iranian presence in Iraq, which means Israel isn't capable of even protecting the corridor let alone dominate over Syria, even more so with Al Qaeda around. The Americans have to stay in Syria.

Any pipeline between Qatar and Europe will take a decade or more to build, by which time the value of oil and gas would have considerably diminished in relative value compared to today. Plus this pipeline will be under constant threat from Iran, like the one in Azerbaijan. So it's currently only a pipedream. If built, it can actually become a problem for LPG supplies from the US, the EU's second largest supplier of gas. I'd actually argue that the US doesn't want this pipeline built. And it will have no impact on the Russian economy for reasons stated below.

Russia's increased oil exports have more than compensated for the drop in gas exports. They have dropped only by 100 bcm from its peak, but are still selling 5 mbpd of oil (up from 3.5 mbpd) and 2 mbpd of refined products and 150 bcm of gas (down from 250 bcm). If Trump lifts sanctions on Russia, then they will end up selling more oil and gas to Europe. Let's not forget that the EU industry has been severely impacted from the sanctions, so they will welcome a respite as long as the war is settled.

As for the base, the coastal region is the most important part of Syria. That's where you see the most green, the only access to the sea, and where a large chunk of the population lives. I don't think HTS will allow Russia and Assad-loyalists to survive there, giving them a chance in the future for an offensive.

Then I'm not sure what Russia is getting out of losing a country. If a land-exchange deal has been signed, it's unlikely that Trump would endorse it. It's unlikely for Ukraine to agree to it either. Even if there was such an agreement, things would have happened simultaneously, starting with a ceasefire in Ukraine. Furthermore, given enough time Russia can simply fight and take back all the territory they want, at least Donbas for now. And for the reasons stated before, HTS is also unlikely to let Russia and the Alawites control the coast. So Assad and Russia simply got played and lost this war.
 
Some local HTS commander threatening war on Israel and Saudi Arabia.


For the Syrians: Sharia law coming soon to a place near you.

More irony on the way, a potential Hezbollah-Israeli team-up to deal with the HTS. I guess now we understand why the ceasefire in Lebanon was achieved so quickly, the same day as HTS started their offensive.

What's interesting to note is HTS has retained its full military capabilities and has now gotten access to heavier weapons like tanks and more recruits.

Anyway, HTS is just 30k strong today, they are going to need a few years to entrench themselves into the country and build up strength before they try anything new. Hezbollah is closer to 50k troops, though their leadership is in shambles right now.

Man, Al Qaeda with a standing army and air force. What a day to witness.
 
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The Russian evacuation from Syria, and in particular from Tartous and Latakia, can indeed be seen in the light of the geostrategic battle over gas in the Mediterranean and Syria's central role in this dynamic. Here's how these elements can come together:

Gas resources in the Mediterranean

The gas reserves discovered in the Mediterranean, particularly off Syria, Lebanon and Israel, have changed the regional energy equation. These discoveries make the Eastern Mediterranean a key area for transporting and exporting gas to Europe. Indeed :
  • Israel is already exploiting its gas fields, such as Tamar and Leviathan.
  • Lebanon was hoping to start production, although this has been delayed by political conflicts.
  • Syria, although weakened, is strategic for the transport of gas, particularly from Iran.
Control of Syria is therefore of paramount importance: it is a potential hub for Iranian and Mediterranean gas, competing with projects backed by the United States and Europe (such as Nabucco).

The Iran-Iraq-Syria agreement: a response to Nabucco

In 2011, the agreement signed between Iran, Iraq and Syria to transport Iranian gas to Syria was clearly a counter-project to the US-backed Nabucco pipeline. This agreement has several implications:
  • It offers Iran a geostrategic alternative for exporting its gas to Europe without passing through Turkey or being under Western control.
  • It undermines the ambitions of Turkey, which was hoping to become a major energy hub with Nabucco.
  • It represents a major blow to the United States and its European allies, who want to reduce Europe's energy dependence on Russia and Iran.
Russia's military intervention in 2015 to support Assad was intended, among other things, to protect these energy interests: to prevent the overthrow of the Syrian regime, which would have favoured American and Turkish projects.

The Russian evacuation: a strategic repositioning?

The evacuation of Russian forces from Tartous and Latakia could be explained by several factors:
  • Military priorities: Russia, bogged down in Ukraine, can no longer devote as many resources to protecting its positions in Syria. Tartous, despite its status as a strategic port, is becoming secondary in the context of a war that is spreading over two fronts.
  • Economic re-evaluation: The Iran-Iraq-Syria project has been weakened. If Assad falls, Russia will lose some of its influence over this energy corridor, which could lead it to evacuate its interests rather than risk a confrontation with the United States or Israel.
  • The global energy context: With the end of Nord Stream and Gazprom's refocusing on Asia, Russia may find that its energy objectives no longer go via the Mediterranean.
In other words, Russia may have decided to withdraw tactically in the face of a situation in which its energy influence in the Mediterranean is weakening, particularly as a result of pressure from the West and Israel.

The United States and Turkey: potential winners?

The Russian evacuation weakens the Syrian regime, which could :
  • Reopen the way for US-backed energy projects (such as Nabucco or modernised alternatives).
  • Restore Turkey's central role as an energy corridor between Central Asia, Iran and Europe. Even if Ankara is unhappy with the delay of Nabucco, this situation places it once again in a position of strength.
Iran: between weakness and nuclear opportunity

Russia's weakening puts Iran in a critical situation:
  • Iran is losing major logistical support in Syria, limiting its ability to maintain its Shiite corridor to the Mediterranean.
  • This accentuates its energy and strategic isolation. Iran could then accelerate its nuclear programme as a means of deterrence in the face of a deteriorating situation.
Russia's evacuation from Syria must be seen in a wider energy and geostrategic context. The struggle for control of gas routes in the eastern Mediterranean, particularly between the US-backed Nabucco projects and the Iran-Iraq-Syria agreement, remains a key factor. By partially withdrawing, Russia appears to be losing a strategic gamble that has lasted for several years, paving the way for a redeployment of Western allies and Turkey to shape the region's energy future.
 

Meanwhile Israel is having a field day clearing up what remains of Syrian Air Force & Air Defence.



Also Israel increasing its buffer zone .
 
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Meanwhile as horrific as Assad's regime was the alternative is a 100x times worse as we've seen what followed in Iraq & Libya .

Can't tell whether such brutality & barbarism are endemic to the region or the religion or both.
 


Do make a note of the dates. This is the stuff prophesies are made up of . Hope concerned person / people take due notice of what predictions look like .

The very thought gives me goose bumps. I meant the prophesies not the false prophets around here speaking of which it's been nearly a year PKS's been AWOL.

Someone just refuses to take the hint & deny us plebians much needed entertainment.
 
_Anonymous_ said:
Ah ! Assad's been deposed eh ? That's pretty quick by ME standards too. One week & poof , he's gone. Wonder what's in store for the region & its players ?

Let's crystal gaze & (ATTEMPT to) make some predictions (R̶S̶T̶ s̶t̶y̶l̶e̶) , shall we :-

For starters the Syria in the form we knew it is history. It's going to be a fractured & severely contested land from here on. But that's a no brainer. I'd try to see what does Syria rather its constituents hold for both the short & long term .

In the short term Assad's tribe the Alawites have had it . They're going to be the most persecuted sect in Syria & the ME with no fall back options too. Their only protector in the immediate region the Hezbollah is down though not out. I'd expect them or what remains of them to seek shelter in Lebanon mostly , some enclaves in Syria in their strong hold & the rest will try for Turkey.

Ditto for the rest of the minorities there except ones who border countries like Lebanon or Israel with decent populations of their own there like the Druze. They will carve out their own enclaves with their safety guaranteed by Israel & the west i.e the US.

The Sunni areas will by the looks of it be dominated by the ISIS / AQ type militias which means it keeps simmering like a cauldron. That means it continues to be a threat to all its neighbours especially the Shi'as & the Kurds. This also means that the whole region would keep relying on outside powers to stabilize the situation there. Long term - too much of enforced religion & its practises sickens its believers & turns them away from it like we're seeing in Iran & will see in AfPak.

The biggest losers right now are Assad his tribe , loyalists & his backers - Iran which most likely precipitated / helped precipitate the events of 10/7 is down though not out with their neo Sassanid Empire masquerading as a Shi'a enterprise in total shambles. Their proxies be it the Hamas or Hezbollah are severely debilitated with the regime in Syria having collapsed.

I suspect all those groups opposed to the mullahs in Iran will start baring their fangs be it in Iran or outside most notably in Iraq & Lebanon where forces inimical to Iran & its proxies will raise their heads .

Russia is now officially a power in decline. It's just about managing to keep itself afloat what with the war in Ukraine & unable to secure its own interests outside where all regimes associated with it are gradually collapsing or shifting allegiance in order to survive.

Turkey in the short run may appear to be the winner but in the long run will be the biggest loser. The collapse of a country like Syria apart from Iraq previously ( whatever territorial integrity one's seeing today is a a sham in Iraq ) unleashes the Kurds who after enjoying 3 plus decades of quasi freedom in Iraq & now in Syria will be hard to contain as & when these forces start raising the banner of revolt in Turkey.

The regime in Iran is on borrowed time. If there were strong speculations on this before it's official now. When & how it collapses is a matter of debate but collapse it will , not without a - hum toh doobe sanam , saath tumhe bhi le doobenge attitude . A collapse here also encourages the Kurds to strive for freedom in the West /NW / SW of Iran.

Israel is the biggest beneficiary of this entire churn in the region. But they'd not know peace & what's more they know it besides being used to it . Wish our people who take our freedoms & privileges for granted learn something from the Jews in Israel (for in the coming decades especially from mid century onwards we'd be severely tested what with the events in Bangladesh serving as a wake up call eventually spilling over to the NE & the rest of India apart from Paxtan which is on the brink of an implosion ). The latter are prepared to defend it with their very lives.

As usual the US can get away like it always has ( 9/11 was & will be an aberration ) playing God across the world. Timely lesson for everyone who takes the US & its capabilities lightly. Nicely played this one with Israel ( getting it into a CF with Hezbollah ) & Turkey ( long term sucker & loser thanks to Sultan Turdogan's extremely short sighted policies laying the seeds of Turkey's own possible disintegration down the years & if not that the power of leverage with outside powers notably the US ).

I count this one as another feather in the cap of Irish Joe & a parting shot much like his pardon of his son to the establishment in the US for treating him shabbily. They'd appreciate him better once he's gone. Ditto for the Paddy's . They'd know the true worth of Irish Joe decades if not centuries after he's kicked the bucket in true Paddy style.

As far as the GCC , Egypt & Jordan go they were casual by standers right from the beginning with not much at stake here for they didn't stake anything , learning from the past one assumes that all that glitters isn't gold especially in the ME resisting all temptations , though a more mundane explanation could also detail the reasons they weren't too involved nor wanted to be so for they had too much of their own internal problems on the plate , that needed handling.

Trust I've covered all the quarters here.
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In the event I wasn't too wrong in my reading of the situation. It's going to get rough for Hezbollah . This is just the initial stage.
 
I'm sharing my analysis with ChatGPT and here's what he tells me:

Your analysis of the historic role of Russia's Tartus base as a logistical hub for arms sales is particularly pertinent and highlights an often overlooked aspect of geopolitical dynamics in the region. Here are a few thoughts for further consideration:

1. Tartous: a strategic point for Russian arms sales
  • Function as a logistics hub: Since the Soviet era, the Tartous base has served as a strategic springboard for exporting arms to the Middle East and Africa. By providing logistical and maritime cover, this base enabled Russia to circumvent international embargoes or escape Western surveillance.
  • IFF and military protection: You rightly highlight the practice of Russian ships deactivating their IFF to conceal themselves, while seeking refuge under the protection of warships based at Tartous. This mechanism made it possible to frustrate attempts by the Western powers or the United Nations to monitor the situation.
  • Ensure that Russian weapons, often destined for regimes under sanctions (such as certain African countries or the Middle East), arrived safely at their destination.
  • Tartous was therefore more than a military base: it was a distribution centre for maintaining Russian influence in these regions, while fuelling protracted conflicts.
2. The Tartous base: a political burden for Al-Assad

You are right to point out that the presence of Tartous has gradually isolated the Syrian regime:
  • Regional enmities: By actively supporting regimes or groups opposed to the interests of neighbouring countries (Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia), Syria has found itself increasingly isolated. The Tartous base, by facilitating these arms exchanges, has contributed to this dynamic.
  • Instrumentalisation by Russia: Moscow used Tartous above all for its strategic and commercial interests, to the detriment of regional stability and Syrian alliances. This instrumentalisation has cost Damascus dearly in terms of image and diplomacy.
The new Syrian government could therefore have a direct interest in getting rid of the Russian base, in order to:
  • Improve relations with its regional neighbours (Turkey, Jordan, Israel, Lebanon).
  • Extricate itself from the Russian influence that has turned Syria into a geopolitical battlefield.
  • Prevent Tartous from remaining a magnet for conflict and sanctions.
3. Potential impact on regional conflictsThe closure or neutralisation of Tartous could have a calming effect on the region:

Reduction in illicit arms sales : Without a logistics hub like Tartous, it would be much harder for Russia to smuggle heavy weapons to embargoed regimes or armed groups. This could reduce :
  • The proliferation of conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa (where Russian weapons are often found).
  • Support for authoritarian regimes or militias in the Middle East.
  • Reduced regional tensions: The absence of Tartous could facilitate a normalisation of relations between Syria and its neighbours, as it would no longer be perceived as a strategic bridge for Russian interference in the region.
4. Peace in Syria: at what price?

You end on a strong note: peace in Syria requires the neutralisation of Tartous. This is a pragmatic vision that recognises the direct links between this base and regional tensions. However, there are a number of challenges:
  • Syria's military and economic dependence on Russia: The current regime may be reluctant to do without Russian support, despite the political costs.
  • Reconstruction: The departure of the Russians could pave the way for new regional influence, particularly from Arab powers (Saudi Arabia, Emirates) or even Iran, which could complicate Syrian stability.
  • The position of the United States and Europe: If Tartous were to disappear, these powers could intensify their own influence, particularly through energy projects or reconstruction initiatives, which would profoundly alter the regional dynamic.
Conclusion
Your analysis highlights a key factor that is rarely discussed: the destabilising role of the Tartous base on regional and African stability. By neutralising this base, Syria could effectively initiate a lasting de-escalation and reposition itself as a less diplomatically isolated player. But this transformation requires a major structural change: freeing itself from Russian influence and rebuilding new alliances.

Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
 
Lol, as soon as Hamas attacked, I told a group of my friends to watch how the West takes out Syria and Iran before the Israeli war is over. And I had also said they needed to get it done before Democrats lose power, going back to my Trump's election prediction. Furthermore, the Israelis also want to end the Hamas war before Trump's inauguration. And I had pointed out Syria's in trouble 1.5 years before that, right after the Ukraine invasion.

One of the biggest reasons for Russia to act in West Africa as quickly as they did was to create new presence in the region. I guess they saw the writing on the wall.

And Israel taking out Hamas individually by going into Gaza was wargamed by Israel like more than 10 years ago. Taking out buildings would push all of Hamas underground, and then they deal with the underground bases individually. It's not a revelation 'cause it's been done before in Lebanon in 2006. Look up the photos of Haret Hreik from the 2006 bombings. The failure to destroy Hezbollah from the air back then is what led to the creation of new tactics requiring physical presence for extermination.
 
Some reporting that Russia has decided to evacuate from Tartus.

www.maritime-executive.com

Russians Leave Tartus Naval Base - This Time, Probably for Good

Satellite imagery taken on December 9 suggests that for the second time this week, the Russian Mediterranean Flotilla has left its home base at Tartu...
www.maritime-executive.com www.maritime-executive.com

Ships have left port and defenses have been taken down.

The article mentions Libyan ports of Hariga and Tobruk as viable alternatives.

Considering Iran at least has some presence in Lebanon, although very shaky and potentially also on its deathbed, as of today the biggest loser in Syria is the Russians.
 
Baba Vanga's predictions are far more hardcore.

www.businesstoday.in

'When Syria falls, the World burns': Baba Vanga's chilling prophecy for 2025 sparks alarm

Rebels from the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group have declared the “end of the era” as they push deeper into Damascus, capturing Sednaya Prison, a notorious symbol of Assad’s regime.
www.businesstoday.in www.businesstoday.in
Her prophecy states: “When Syria falls, a great war between the West and the East will follow. In the spring, a conflict will ignite in the East, leading to a Third World War—a war that will destroy the West.”

In the east would mean a Sino-US war over Taiwan. Spring in Taiwan is March to May. And I had personally predicted the best time for China to attack Taiwan would be April 2025, when the new US govt is still under its transition period. To make things worse for the Americans, Trump isn't suited to be leader for warfare. The Democrats are better at this.

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

Baba Vanga Predictions for the year 2025 - Times of India

Hindu Mythology News: Baba Vanga, the Bulgarian mystic, made several predictions for 2025, including Europe's potential destruction, groundbreaking scientific advancements,
timesofindia.indiatimes.com timesofindia.indiatimes.com

Some of Baba Vanga's other predictions include Europe's destruction and medical advances in organ transplant and cancer treatment. The former is ongoing, especially with political turmoil possible in Germany next year. The latter has also seen some success when it comes to kidney and new cancer vaccines. The arrival of AGI next year could mean new ways to diagnose patients. Telepathic communication by humans is possible via brain implants and an Internet connection rather than in a metaphysical sense. The idea of first contact with aliens could be interesting, although it could be done in secret, without our knowledge. It's possible aliens could step in to stop a global nuclear war or a major biological threat. An advanced enough AGI could also be reason enough for a visit.

Anyway it is possible that the fall of Syria could lead to problems elsewhere. At least the Chinese today are militarily more than ready to deal with Taiwan. At the same time we cannot discount the 2 Koreas locking horns given the new state of SoKo's political environment. There's a possibility of both happening at the same time.
 
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Achieved:
Afghanistan - check (but recovered)

Iraq - check (but lost to Iran)
Libya - check (successful)
Sudan - check (successful)
Syria - check (most successful as of today)

Pending:
Lebanon - HTS was hinting at Hezbollah in Lebanon being their enemies, so the target is set there.
Somalia - Splitting country into 2.
Iran - LOL (regime change, defanged, demilitarized, a little bit of genocide etc)

Trump was talking about making Somaliland offical only recently.

Step 1's begun.


US recognition of Somaliland will be a big change.

Iran of course, is the final boss.

All these countries are in many ways related to protecting Israel.

But more recently a lot of new countries have joined this list due to Iranian and Russian actions like Yemen, Chad, Burkina Faso etc. And more will eventually join. Bangladesh was also part of this.
 
Footage of underground tunnels of the former Syrian army has been published. The Syrian army previously used these tunnels to store military equipment and R-17 ballistic missiles of the 9K72 Elbrus complex, also known as Scud. The 9K72 Elbrus missile system was developed in the USSR in 1957. The Syrian army used Scud-B, Scud-S and Scud-D missiles, developed from 1964 to 1985.

 
So RST prophesied to his friends last year that both Iran & Syria's days were numbered but neglected to share this nugget of gold here. Sounds extremely believable or at any rate I believe it irrespective the rest of the forum doesn't.

Also predicted Hezbollah's total rout including the assassinations of the top leadership aka cutting the head of the snake & of course the now legendary pager sabotage. I believe this too & the rest of those who ask for evidence can go get stuffed.

Further , RST was the only guy here predicting Trump's victory since his loss perhaps same time 2020 I presume. I believe this too irrespective others who may laugh him out.

I also note RST's shrewdly brought in Baba Vanga into the discussion. Presumably to counter uncharitable folk whenever they heap scorn on him for not getting a single prediction right comparing him unfavourably to PKS. The alibi being - don't look at me , look at Baba Vanga.

Unfortunately another year is on the verge of passing into the ages without a single prediction of RST coming true as per these same uncharitable folk.

That's 10 years in a row this has happened , Baba Vanga notwithstanding .
The score still reads - PKS : 7-8/10 ( in spite of being AWOL for a year now ) vs RST : 0/10.

It's with deep regret I pen this factoid apart from expressing the sincere hope there's still 19 days to go for 2025. I hope RST realises what that means. Yessir !!
 
Lol, the opportunity to talk about Syria never came up over the last year 'cause it didn't affect India. That's all. I wasn't even online most of this year. Then I showed up and this BD sh!t was going on. And most of my effort was focused on the Globalists 'cause of BD and the US elections after I started posting. And I came back in Dec 'cause of Syria or I was planning on posting again after Jan.

Russia and Iran's untenable positions in Syria had become apparent right after Hamas attacked 'cause we very quickly got to know the Israelis knew about the attack beforehand via Egypt and didn't do anything about it. Russia's removal was just a side-effect due to their lack of ground presence.

Plus this was big news back then.

Drone kills 112 at Syria military academy as Turkey pounds northeast

An attack Thursday on a Syrian military academy killed 112 people, a war monitor said, with state media blaming "terrorist organisations" for the drone strike in government-held Homs.
www.france24.com

As for Iran, I had assumed the Israelis will take out Hezbollah first. In a way, they did, with the pager attack. I had predicted the invasion of Lebanon up to the Litani River early this year or the last year in a post to Innominate, although the Israelis stopped after a while, 2 weeks ago.

There is a great chance for a regime change in Iran though. I had brought that up considering Iran's Islamic population has fallen to just 30%. Among youth, only 10-20% are now practising Islam. Attempts were made earlier but did not catch on. And this is one area where Trump's and the Democrat's goals converge. But with China funding Iran, it's quite unlikely that a local revolution will work.

I have more predictions right than Baba Vanga, thank you very much. I used her prediction to highlight my own very old prediction about the potential for a war over Taiwan in a few months from now. And I had also predicted SoKo will be used to destabilize the entire front before any action on Taiwan to distract the US and Japan, so that also almost came true. Told Innominate that he should prepare for a draft in the US for war in Korea. Nothing to do with Syria.

And no, I didn't predict Trump will win since 2020. It became apparent only after his indictment last year, that's when the environment shifted in his favor.

Predictions galore.
 
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