Ukraine - Russia Conflict

The S-500 is already in service as of last year. The S-550 is simply an Mk1A upgrade of the S-500.

It's unclear as to what extent the S-500's BMD capabilities are with respect to ICBMs, but, as per the Americans, it's been designed to stop IRBMs and hypersonic weapons, along with entry level ICBMs. The S-550 probably uses bigger and heavier versions of the S-500's missile in order to go faster and climb higher. But the ground hardware has been speculated to be the same as per Russian official comments. They seem to have bifurcated the two roles due to mobility and logistics requirements but with both using pretty much the same hardware.

As for overselling, when it comes to export, we will naturally test it before inducting it. When it comes to the Russians, it's their headache. It's like the French claiming the Rafale can defeat the S-400 and vice versa with the Russians. But what if we find out during exercises that it's not the case? What if the French are right? What if the Russians are? What if the answer is in between? What if the IAF is very happy with both?

This concept of overselling exists only in brochures for civilians and propaganda purposes. Whether we know the truth or not is irrelevant. Only the actual users have access to the truth. Everybody else can only speculate.
1. IRBM interception has been around for long and even India's AD-1 AD-2 has some capability at intercepting 5000 KM range missiles (PDV Mk2 exo / AD-1 and AD-2 endo). Sure as hell DRDO will be working to improve india's own BMD systems. Likes of Gaznavi can be intercepted today (the original threat model of Pakistan's missiles) and even likes of SRBM/MRBM Shaheen and Ghauri should be interceptable. Where things are unclear are longer range (2500+ KM) Shaheen-2/3.

2. Technically, India should be capable of doing mid-course interception because of its ASAT abilities. It may need to make kinetic kill vehicle a bit more agile to intercept a possibly menuvering rocket in its mid phase. This means intercepting IRBMs (5000 KM+) should be possible for India.

3. S-500/S-550's main party trick should be ability to intercept hypersonic glide weapons. Even ICBM interception has been around for sometime now. Hypersonic glider interception is very very sketchy beyond some claims by some Russian spokesperson.

Your original idea that new-technology is advancing to intercept these new highly menuverable warheads is somewhat untrue. Till now, we do not have a report about any test of intecepting a hypersonic glide vehicle besides Russia's own assertion. Russia is running short on cash so I expect it will take some time to even become possible, if at all.

And lets hope, someone does not makes Hypersonic glider in a MIRV... That will be nightmare.
When you're talking about the performance of a system that hasn't even entered testing that's pure pie-in-the-sky. And it may well be that Russia's answer to HGVs is a nuclear-tipped ABM. They're yet to demonstrate KKV or DACT technology.
If it is a nuclear tipped ABM (like those from 60s?) then sure as hell India will not be able to import it. Even then, nuclear tipped ABM solves the problem of terminal guidance.... navigation and detection itself remain an issue. It will take a much more complex system than a simple ground based detection and interception. Might as well need a satellite constellation to detect launch and track the glider when it reaches atmosphere.

As I said above, lets hope, someone does not make Hypersonic glider in a MIRV... Dealing with 10-15 independent gliders will be a nightmare.
 
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Russia claims a lot but test evidence is lacking and the performance of their equipment in Ukraine is laughable.

They don't provide evidence to the general public. It's up to the export user to properly test what they are buying. Which is why Russian sales to India opens up a lot of markets for the same product.

And his reserves will last him so long, but when they run out he is back to square one, with not enough investors for businesses to remain able to pay their immediate costs. And his tax revenues will also have crashed due to all the western companies shutting down their Russian operations. So he will not even have a surplus anymore. Imports will also cost more due to the low Ruble.

You are speaking about NoKo, not Russia.

Imagine how bad they're hurting Russia. It should be Russia you're losing faith in though, they are the ones who invaded.

Not really. We are not emotional about it. For India, it's about the net gains we can get out of this. Like cheap oil and minerals and better access to military tech.

Some Indian companies can use the cheap ruble to produce some goods in Russia, and re-export it to other countries through import-friendly countries like the UAE.
 
One could try to punch a hole in them but the system would likely incorporate redundancy, with the possibility of having several KKVs for every one required. The ASAT would also be killed by brilliant pebbles and would be seen as preparations for a nuclear attack, which would likely be responded to with a depressed trajectory SLBMs strike. Brilliant Pebbles would also have had two bites at the cherry, once at boost phase and once before re-entry for typical ICBMs. For HGVs, they would be flying through a constant net of KKVs. The system would be backed up by the likes of GBI, SM-3 BlkIIB (now cancelled, just IIA going ahead - that could change now) and THAAD.
Trouble is, if it is a country like Russia, you will need WAY TOO MANY DSP/SBIRS/STSS satellites to detect the damned launch in the first place. Remember, for boost phase interception, you need very early detection? Only IR based sats can do that.

Now when I said ASAT, I was not only talking about KKT/DACT based hard kill. I was talking about "soft kill" methods as well. Likes of laser/masers. Do not forget there will be space based counter measures against such satellites. Like a spacecraft with a robotic arm to simply drag the satellite away -- like China tried. If US gets involved in any conflict, Russia and China will render it blind first (taking out DSP/SBIRS/STSS). IR camera are very vulnerable to IR lasers.

If you cannot detect, you cannot intercept. Boost phase is short, just 90 seconds or less. If missile enters outer space, it can then deploy counter measures like inflatable balloons to hide itself.
 
They don't provide evidence to the general public. It's up to the export user to properly test what they are buying. Which is why Russian sales to India opens up a lot of markets for the same product.



You are speaking about NoKo, not Russia.



Not really. We are not emotional about it. For India, it's about the net gains we can get out of this. Like cheap oil and minerals and better access to military tech.

Some Indian companies can use the cheap ruble to produce some goods in Russia, and re-export it to other countries through import-friendly countries like the UAE.
Garbage. The whole point in a deterrent-like capability is that people know you have it. And we've seen umpteen test launches of their nuclear-tipped ABMs, so it's not like they're shy. They don't have KKV and DACT technology.

Nope, Russia.

The military tech is sh*t, see Ukraine for details.

You need time to set that up and it will be flagged before entering the EU or North America.
 
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1. IRBM interception has been around for long and even India's AD-1 AD-2 has some capability at intercepting 5000 KM range missiles (PDV Mk2 exo / AD-1 and AD-2 endo). Sure as hell DRDO will be working to improve india's own BMD systems. Likes of Gaznavi can be intercepted today (the original threat model of Pakistan's missiles) and even likes of SRBM/MRBM Shaheen and Ghauri should be interceptable. Where things are unclear are longer range (2500+ KM) Shaheen-2/3.

2. Technically, India should be capable of doing mid-course interception because of its ASAT abilities. It may need to make kinetic kill vehicle a bit more agile to intercept a possibly menuvering rocket in its mid phase. This means intercepting IRBMs (5000 KM+) should be possible for India.

3. S-500/S-550's main party trick should be ability to intercept hypersonic glide weapons. Even ICBM interception has been around for sometime now. Hypersonic glider interception is very very sketchy beyond some claims by some Russian spokesperson.

Our BMD program is only capable of stopping MRBMs today, it's Pak-centric in terms of hard kill capabilities. The IRBM stopping capability has still not begun testing. The Russians have operationally deployed the capability we want.

Your original idea that new-technology is advancing to intercept these new highly menuverable warheads is somewhat untrue. Till now, we do not have a report about any test of intecepting a hypersonic glide vehicle besides Russia's own assertion. Russia is running short on cash so I expect it will take some time to even become possible, if at all.

We do not know how far the Russians have progressed. Even we are developing the ability to stop hypersonic gliders. It wasn't part of the original BMD program, but it is now.

Cash isn't a problem for Russia. The govt is super rich due to oil exports, it's the people who are not rich enough relative to the govt. So the govt can spend a frig load of money on security. All they need to do is manage their forex properly so the higher amount of rubles in their system will not weaken it far too much. Yuan should be a relatively safe bet, alongside some Middle Eastern currencies.

If it is a nuclear tipped ABM (like those from 60s?) then sure as hell India will not be able to import it.

I find it unlikely for India to invest in Russian BMD though. P2 is plenty for our needs and it can be improve upon later on.

But if we are to buy some as a stop gap, it will be HTK. Even Russia is switching over to HTK instead of nuke.
 
Garbage. The whole point in a deterrent-like capability is that people know you have it. And we've seen umpteen test launches of their nuclear-tipped ABMs, so it's not like they're shy. They don't have KKV and DACT technology.

Nope, Russia.

The military tech is sh*t, see Ukraine for details.

Lol, okay.

You need time to set that up and it will be flagged before entering the EU or North America.

Why would they want to re-export it to rich countries and face sanctions flak? The world doesn't include America or the EU only.
 
We do not know how far the Russians have progressed. Even we are developing the ability to stop hypersonic gliders. It wasn't part of the original BMD program, but it is now.
Ergo, unknown.

Cash isn't a problem for Russia. The govt is super rich due to oil exports, it's the people who are not rich enough relative to the govt. So the govt can spend a frig load of money on security. All they need to do is manage their forex properly so the higher amount of rubles in their system will not weaken it far too much. Yuan should be a relatively safe bet, alongside some Middle Eastern currencies.
Well, Russia mothballs a lot of weapons project all the time because of cash shortage. No, they are having cash troubles lately -- even before this war started. Biggest example? Their Bulava missile. It went into navy only after 2010s and suffered many delays.
 
Lol, okay.



Why would they want to re-export it to rich countries and face sanctions flak? The world doesn't include America or the EU only.
2/3rds of it includes North America, EU and NATO-friendly countries. So you'd be dealing with the 1/3rd world again.
 
Ergo, unknown.

Everything is "ergo, unknown" when it comes to Russia because they do not release test data. We only have public information about their Cold War tech because of Warsaw Pact countries joining the West. We only get some information about export stuff that they bring outside the country. Other than that, pretty much everything is based on claims, especially their non-export products.

Well, Russia mothballs a lot of weapons project all the time because of cash shortage. No, they are having cash troubles lately -- even before this war started. Biggest example? Their Bulava missile. It went into navy only after 2010s and suffered many delays.

It's not a cash problem, they mainly face tech problems, which is normal. They have cash.
 

DRDO's own statement says interception of satellites at orbit as high as 1000 KM. Thats your IRBM altitude range for a 4000-5500 KM range missile.

That's the ASAT, for use above 300Km. It's capable of midcourse interception like SM-3 and GBI, which can complement our BMD program. Our P1 and P2 BMD programs are for the terminal phase, ie above 10-15Km and below 300Km. The roles are different.
 
1. IRBM interception has been around for long and even India's AD-1 AD-2 has some capability at intercepting 5000 KM range missiles (PDV Mk2 exo / AD-1 and AD-2 endo). Sure as hell DRDO will be working to improve india's own BMD systems. Likes of Gaznavi can be intercepted today (the original threat model of Pakistan's missiles) and even likes of SRBM/MRBM Shaheen and Ghauri should be interceptable. Where things are unclear are longer range (2500+ KM) Shaheen-2/3.

2. Technically, India should be capable of doing mid-course interception because of its ASAT abilities. It may need to make kinetic kill vehicle a bit more agile to intercept a possibly menuvering rocket in its mid phase. This means intercepting IRBMs (5000 KM+) should be possible for India.

3. S-500/S-550's main party trick should be ability to intercept hypersonic glide weapons. Even ICBM interception has been around for sometime now. Hypersonic glider interception is very very sketchy beyond some claims by some Russian spokesperson.

Your original idea that new-technology is advancing to intercept these new highly menuverable warheads is somewhat untrue. Till now, we do not have a report about any test of intecepting a hypersonic glide vehicle besides Russia's own assertion. Russia is running short on cash so I expect it will take some time to even become possible, if at all.

And lets hope, someone does not makes Hypersonic glider in a MIRV... That will be nightmare.

If it is a nuclear tipped ABM (like those from 60s?) then sure as hell India will not be able to import it. Even then, nuclear tipped ABM solves the problem of terminal guidance.... navigation and detection itself remain an issue. It will take a much more complex system than a simple ground based detection and interception. Might as well need a satellite constellation to detect launch and track the glider when it reaches atmosphere.

As I said above, lets hope, someone does not make Hypersonic glider in a MIRV... Dealing with 10-15 independent gliders will be a nightmare.
Marketing has already started. Hope we will not do the mistake again.
 
Чем Макрон заслужил одобрение Лаврова

How Macron has earned Lavrov's approval

Washington knows Paris is an unreliable ally in confronting Russia
17 March 2022, 14:56 Text: Stanislav Borzyakov

According to the Russian foreign minister, the French president is the only European leader who is trying to resist Washington's hegemony and has not yet "gone under" the US. What can Sergei Lavrov's assessment have to do with the fact that Emmanuel Macron is actively engaged in an economic war with Russia, but calls the Kremlin two or three times a week?

"A peace order based on the rules the US writes is already ready to be accepted in any form by Europe. In fact, the only one left is Emmanuel Macron, who keeps mentioning the need for strategic autonomy for the EU. The rest of the countries of the European Union have already fallen under the U.S.'.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov expressed this opinion in an interview with RBK, which is atypical of the minister. It is not in the spirit of Lavrov and Russian diplomacy in general to single out certain Western leaders personally, especially given that they all seem to be waging the same economic war against Russia. As if they were all waging the same economic war against Russia.

Perhaps Lavrov has a personal sympathy for the French president (why not: Macron pursues a far more diverse foreign policy than was expected of the "Rothschild man"). But Paris and "the rest of the West" are really "two big differences" if one knows what one is trying to hide from the general public.

Lavrov certainly knows. And to confirm his assessment of Macronov's resistance, it is better to look at France not through the eyes of the Russians but through the eyes of those very Americans. From the American point of view, the French are a very bad ally. Especially in the case of confrontation with Russia.

The need for "strategic autonomy" of the EU from the U.S. has been mentioned many times by Macron himself, and in the same words as Lavrov now. The last time he did so publicly was relatively recently - at a meeting with Atlantic Council experts on February 4. According to the French president, such autonomy would correct "distortions in the transatlantic relations" and reduce Europe's dependence on American weapons (read: let them buy French ones).
At the same time Macron reiterated that "the strategic dialogue with Moscow has no alternatives". He is, in principle, fond of speculating aloud in moments of heartwarming tide about a special relationship with Russia and "the great European nation, the Russians", but, as we know, deeds - including what some US commentators call "dirty deals" - are far more important than words.

During the first, Crimean-Donbass sanctions wave of 2014, the story was widely discussed when Paris, under US pressure, refused to supply Moscow with Mistral-type helicopter carriers, returning the advance payment. It had to be persuaded because the restrictions then imposed by both America and Europe included a ban on the supply of arms and other military and dual-use products to Russia under newly concluded contracts, and the Mistrals contract had been concluded earlier.

The whole world knew about the scandal, but not many knew that other military supplies from France to Russia continued. According to the French publication Disclose, between 2015 and 2020, the French sent us more than 150 million euros worth of military developments, including infrared detectors for combat aircraft and thermal imagers for tanks. And the main beneficiaries were Thales and Safran, where the French state is the main shareholder. Macron has already been forced to admit that all this is the truth.

Now of course such a thing is not possible, even European yoghurt and cat food producers are now refusing to supply Russia. European, but not French again for some reason. The Swedish Ikea is closed in Russia, and the French Leroy Merlin is working as it used to.
According to the newspaper Le Figaro, after the start of the Russian Armed Forces' special operation in Ukraine, Macron met with 15 representatives of major French businesses, advising them not to rush into "kenseling" and not to withdraw from the Russian market just yet. This was advised by the same man who is positioning himself as co-author of the economic pressure on Russia.

This is roughly why the French are disliked, and the Americans especially. For always trying to accommodate their financial and industrial interest and provide for a special way, for being able to screw over an ally unexpectedly and showing off for no good reason.

That was the case during the Second World War, when Washington tried to find a less opinionated leader than General Charles de Gaulle for the French resistance.

So it was in the Cold War, when the same De Gaulle pulled France out of NATO even though it had already gone through a wholesale American buyout of European sovereignty - the Marshall Plan.

This was the case with the US-led coalition attack on Iraq, which Paris categorically condemned as an adventure, and political analysts suddenly started discussing the emergence of a new anti-American axis: Paris-Berlin-Moscow.

The relationship between the Elysée Palace and the Kremlin - a strategic adversary of the White House - is indeed special. It was so under De Gaulle and remains so after him.

In the early 1950s and late 1960s, it was generally believed in Washington and London that power in France would inevitably pass to the Communists.

Paris is almost always a headache for the US. It is easy to imagine how, after the creation of the anti-Chinese bloc AUKUS, under which the Anglo-Saxons "cheated" the French out of a fat contract to build nuclear submarines for Australia, the old-timers of the State Department rubbed their hands maliciously - this is for you, sir, for all your previous "tricks".

By and large, however, Americans believe that France is "no longer the type" to fully withdraw from American tutelage. Furthermore, although not too few Frenchmen (presidential candidate Eric Zemmour is their spokesman) have dreams of a new Russo-French alliance, it is not a worthy ally whom even the Americans are wolfing down, despite their "community of values", which both Biden and Macron unreservedly acknowledge.

Teasing the latter, however, by brushing aside the national ego of the French nation, does seem useful. Whether now or not France is the "one", but it still has the biggest armed forces in the EU (in NATO it is second to the USA and Turkey) and the only one in the European Union which possesses nuclear weapons and strategic territories in three oceans - from Guiana in South America to New Caledonia in Oceania.

With the right firepower, all this guarantees a claim to unambiguous leadership of the united army of the European Union, the appearance of which has long been talked about, but all the time something gets in the way, not excluding the Americans.

If Macron re-elects to the presidency this spring (and he certainly will), he has promised to get down to creating this army, and then disagreements between Paris and Washington will enter a new level of "intolerability" for the latter.

If so, why shouldn't Minister Lavrov do just that - single out Macron as the only one who can stand up to the Americans, in the expectation that the trademark national pride will finally kick in and the French will actually dare to do something substantial beyond furtive handshakes with the Russians under the lid of the negotiating table. The more cracks and contradictions in the Western bloc, the better for us.
 
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