Ukraine - Russia Conflict
- Thread starter randomradio
- Start date
@BMD How do you think this conflict will end?
IMO, Ukraine cannot regain it's territory without NATO's direct involvement which can lead to WW3, which west is going to avoid that.
So, it's depends upon How much longer west can provide weapons & Ukraine's will, either way, ultimately I think that they have to acknowledge that they will not get lost territories from Russia.
IMO, Ukraine cannot regain it's territory without NATO's direct involvement which can lead to WW3, which west is going to avoid that.
So, it's depends upon How much longer west can provide weapons & Ukraine's will, either way, ultimately I think that they have to acknowledge that they will not get lost territories from Russia.
Depends. At the moment we're not even trying to help Ukraine win. Until we give Ukraine long-range missiles and allow them to target Russian defence production facilities, ammo storage and training barracks inside Russia, we're not really trying. 1,000 Tomahawks/JASSM-ERs per year going into Russia's defence infrastructure would make a notable difference. At the moment Russia isn't feeling enough pain because this isn't happening but NK's provision or KN-23s provides an opportunities for a retaliatory escalation in kind.
Once you start slowing down their defence production that will impact their ability to reinforce the frontline and provide the necessary ATGMs and artillery support, as well as SAM cover.
At the moment we're stuck in the Vietnam era, "don't hit anything above this parallel," phase. The quicker we transition to the Linebacker II phase the better.
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Tippy-toeing around Putin because they think he might strike. He won't though because he knows damn well he's over-stepped the mark and he knows that doing so will only result in one of two outcomes for Russian, conventional defeat or nuclear obliterration.
@RASALGHUL - Look at it this way. Putin can either accept the getting hit with missiles by Ukraine, or even accept his recognised borders and still have 11% of the Earth's landmass and 22% of its natural resources, or he can have a nuclear ash pile.
Russia struggled to push the Ukrainians into the river after its planes were shot down, intel says, showing how a surprising failure at the war's start is still a problem
Ukraine recently shot down several Russian aircraft, and it's underscored a problem that's plagued Moscow for nearly two years, intelligence says.
Let's reiterate the obvious. There are three levels of confrontation,
Approaching a threshold means approaching an object with very high gravity. Physics becomes deformed and the closer you get, the more you can cross a point of no return. It's also worth noting that the forces present in the vicinity of these two thresholds are not of the same intensity.
Approaching conventional war is like approaching a massive star, dangerous but manageable, whereas nuclear war is a terrifying black hole. So we hesitate even more to approach it, even - between nuclear powers - to avoid crossing the previous threshold.
Within these spaces, there are basically two types of strategy: pressure until the desired result emerges, which resembles poker, or a sequence of actions in which the success of one depends on the success of the previous one, which obviously brings to mind chess.
The first strategy is largely hidden until the end, while the second can be followed on a map.
The difficulty in understanding the current crisis is a mixture of all these factors. There is both a war - Russia against Ukraine - and a confrontation - Russia against the Atlantic Alliance - which preceded the war in Ukraine (need we remind you of what is happening in Africa?) but which has obviously taken a much more serious turn since then.
Moreover, while the confrontation between Russia and the Atlantic Alliance is almost entirely a poker game (successive packages of sanctions, increased military aid in kind and volume, cuts or embargoes, more or less explicit messages via sabotage, influence, etc.), the war in Ukraine involves a chessboard of military operations laid out on a wider carpet where an even more sinister poker is being played than the one we are playing, because it kills.
It is in the context of confrontation that we are helping Ukraine in its war, without wanting to cross the threshold into war, and the Russians are in the same position.
This is nothing new. While the United States was supporting South Vietnam and waging war on North Vietnam, the Soviet Union was providing massive military aid to the North. A few years later, the roles were reversed and it was the Soviet Union that waged war in Afghanistan and supported the Ethiopian and Angolan regimes, while the West, this time united, opposed them.
In both cases, the Soviets and the West were not in direct military confrontation.
At this stage of the current confrontation, the Russian-Western confrontation is gaining momentum. For the Russians, the short-term aim is still to shake Western, and especially Western European, public opinion out of its conviction that it is supporting Ukraine "in the name of peace".
Without this support, Ukraine will find it very difficult to continue the fight. But we must understand that the rupture is now complete and a new Iron Curtain has fallen. The Russian regime has declared a permanent confrontation. Even if we decided to stop giving aid to Ukraine, the struggle would continue.
- i.e. the attempt to impose one's will by force, in modern international relations: confrontation, where pressure is exerted on the other in every conceivable way but without fighting;
- conventional war, which is the same as confrontation plus fighting;
- and nuclear war, which is the same as conventional war but with the actual use of atomic weapons.
Approaching a threshold means approaching an object with very high gravity. Physics becomes deformed and the closer you get, the more you can cross a point of no return. It's also worth noting that the forces present in the vicinity of these two thresholds are not of the same intensity.
Approaching conventional war is like approaching a massive star, dangerous but manageable, whereas nuclear war is a terrifying black hole. So we hesitate even more to approach it, even - between nuclear powers - to avoid crossing the previous threshold.
Within these spaces, there are basically two types of strategy: pressure until the desired result emerges, which resembles poker, or a sequence of actions in which the success of one depends on the success of the previous one, which obviously brings to mind chess.
The first strategy is largely hidden until the end, while the second can be followed on a map.
The difficulty in understanding the current crisis is a mixture of all these factors. There is both a war - Russia against Ukraine - and a confrontation - Russia against the Atlantic Alliance - which preceded the war in Ukraine (need we remind you of what is happening in Africa?) but which has obviously taken a much more serious turn since then.
Moreover, while the confrontation between Russia and the Atlantic Alliance is almost entirely a poker game (successive packages of sanctions, increased military aid in kind and volume, cuts or embargoes, more or less explicit messages via sabotage, influence, etc.), the war in Ukraine involves a chessboard of military operations laid out on a wider carpet where an even more sinister poker is being played than the one we are playing, because it kills.
It is in the context of confrontation that we are helping Ukraine in its war, without wanting to cross the threshold into war, and the Russians are in the same position.
This is nothing new. While the United States was supporting South Vietnam and waging war on North Vietnam, the Soviet Union was providing massive military aid to the North. A few years later, the roles were reversed and it was the Soviet Union that waged war in Afghanistan and supported the Ethiopian and Angolan regimes, while the West, this time united, opposed them.
In both cases, the Soviets and the West were not in direct military confrontation.
At this stage of the current confrontation, the Russian-Western confrontation is gaining momentum. For the Russians, the short-term aim is still to shake Western, and especially Western European, public opinion out of its conviction that it is supporting Ukraine "in the name of peace".
Without this support, Ukraine will find it very difficult to continue the fight. But we must understand that the rupture is now complete and a new Iron Curtain has fallen. The Russian regime has declared a permanent confrontation. Even if we decided to stop giving aid to Ukraine, the struggle would continue.
Actually everything from the edges of West Asia to Southeast Asia is Hindu land.
I knew it was building up to this. Yes, but no. Not yet at least. There is still time to salvage it. What really matters is the post-Putin regime. But the US likes the Iron Curtain, makes them more important.
On the other side, 20 new countries have decided to join BRICS this year and 5 more are interested. Even if you take India out of BRICS, the combined population exceeds the West and their GDP matches the West.
It's ridiculous if the West believes everything happening right now is good.
