Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukrainian military intelligence:
“Russian prisoners tell us they are coming to wage war against NATO”
The general assures, in an interview with “Le Monde”, that the Ukrainian incursions in Crimea are only a “beginning”. He also admits a certain weariness of war among the population and considers the deficit in soldiers “significant, but not alarming”.
Comments collected by Florence Aubenas (kyiv, special correspondent)
In Ukraine at war, Kyrylo Budanov, 38, head of the Ukrainian military intelligence service (GUR), has established himself as a major figure in the conflict. He is one of the only officials in the country to have predicted the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022, specifying that it would take place “at 5 a.m.”. Installed with his wife in a protected base, he remembers watching the hands of the clock turn that night. “I didn’t want this war, but I am responsible for this kind of information. Such a mistake would not have been acceptable,” he said evenly, his face still.
Since then, a living frog has kept him company, in his office, on the base where he still lives. Kyrylo Boudanov's journey speaks for itself: an entire life transformed into a special operation. After graduating from the Odessa military academy in 2007, he immediately joined the elite forces of the GUR, a vocation. Wounded several times during secret operations from the start of the Russo-Ukrainian war in 2014, target of numerous assassination attempts, the young major general was appointed head of the GUR by the president, Volodymyr Zelensky, in 2020.
His Western counterparts sometimes compare Kyrylo Boudanov's GUR to the Mossad of the 1970s, Israeli foreign intelligence, a parallel that he does not reject. “The times are different, but we are ready to take firm action,” he confides.
In the current phase of the war, the audacity of its clandestine operations, launched deeper and deeper outside Ukraine's borders, sometimes puts the nerves of its foreign partners on edge. On November 28, 2023, Kyrylo Boudanov's wife, Marianna, was the victim of attempted heavy metal poisoning.
Bombings of unprecedented scale have just hit Ukraine on December 29, 2023 and January 2. Has the war entered a new phase?
This may surprise you, but the reason for these strikes is very banal. At the Russian Defense Ministry, they took stock of 2023: they wanted to quickly show something so that they could proclaim the year victorious and move on to the next.
However, they had no real military success. Given the enormous stocks of missiles accumulated on their side, the option was obvious. It was our military infrastructure that was targeted, with high-precision missiles, but these suffer from numerous defects. Often they fall short. We immediately sent them our response.
Which ?
Attacks on their military structures. Of course, I can't say more.
The defense industry plays a vital role in positional warfare, which is particularly demanding in terms of ammunition and equipment. What are the production capacities in Russia and Ukraine?
Regarding the quantity of weapons produced, it has increased significantly in Russia compared to previous years, we have felt this since the end of summer 2023. I am not talking about what other countries deliver to them , but of their national industry. But, for quality, we see a decline.
Ukraine is also trying to increase its production. Although we do not have the same volumes as Russia – our countries are of different sizes – we do, however, face the same problems as them in this area: we have few high-tech components and we lack qualified executives. The war affects this sector, with competent personnel being mobilized into the army.
The land front today seems to have frozen after the results of the Ukrainian counter-offensive this summer. Is this reality?
On both sides, the very intensive use of attack drones has made both Russian and Ukrainian offensives impossible. Drones have been the new thing in recent years. Another element, the density of minefields, never reached since the Second World War. This aspect had been forgotten.
Against drones, we know the solution: electronic countermeasures. As for mines, specialized equipment is required. We come back to the question of production capacity, the processes are linked. Nothing is insoluble, but everything must be taken into account.
In an interview with “The Economist” on January 1, President Volodymyr Zelensky stressed that the conflict would refocus on the Black Sea. What is your analysis?
Let's look at the facts: the northern part of the Black Sea is under Ukrainian control, along with the gas extraction platforms. Very important for our economy, the maritime grain export corridors are operational again, even if there are risks due to the war.
For our part, we regularly attack our enemy's fleet and port facilities. The Russians had to quickly move everything to the southeast. They are trying to set up a naval base at Ochamchira on the occupied territory of Georgia [Abkhazia] on the Black Sea. In 2023, the first Ukrainian incursions took place in temporarily occupied Crimea, although some thought them impossible. And that's just the beginning. This gives hope, especially to the Ukrainians in Crimea who have been living under Russian occupation for ten years and many of whom were starting to become discouraged.
You give the impression of assessing the situation with great confidence. Nothing surprised you in this war?
A certain Russian paradox surprised me. Everyone considered Moscow to have a strong army and a fragile economy. It turns out it's the opposite. The army sucks. On the other hand, the economy is certainly diminished, but the country is not dying of hunger, far from it. He can even last quite a long time at this rate.
Current Western sanctions are not enough, or not in the very long term. It would be necessary to affect their main economic sectors, which had so far been spared: energy, metallurgy, and the financial system as a whole.
What could change the situation?
Let's first talk about weapons delivery, and I'm simply talking about artillery systems here. The warehouses of NATO countries are full of them, it's no secret. We lack shells and anti-aircraft systems. The debate is not only about hypermodern technologies. Everything interests us, including old or no longer functioning systems.
The question of quantity is also important. Then, the Ukrainian economic sector needs support to guarantee the stability of the country, this is fundamental. The other questions concern Ukraine only.
What are these questions?
We must improve the recruitment process in the army, communicate better with the population to increase motivation. We unfortunately have problems in this area, we must accept this, we see it in the current controversies over the next mobilization law.
The war started ten years ago, the large-scale invasion since 2022, fatigue manifests itself both at the individual level and in society. I am not criticizing, the phenomenon is understandable. But the lack of soldiers is becoming significant, even if it is not alarming. The main thing is to find solutions, we did it in time. With certain changes, perhaps, Parliament should pass the law.
Do you also feel weariness among your Western partners?
If the question is: will these fatigues affect the front, the answer is no. Those who think they are tired of Ukraine abroad will have to woo the Russians when they come to occupy their own territories. Russia is not only waging war against Ukraine, it is waging war against NATO, their propaganda has been saying this from the beginning.
Every day I read [secret] Russian reports, received through different channels. Each of them mentions strikes against NATO bases, specifying that there were fifty Poles, thirty French, etc. It’s false, they know it, but that’s the information they’re reporting. Moreover, Russian prisoners of war tell us their surprise at not having met any NATO soldiers. In their minds, they are coming to wage war against them, Ukraine is only the first step.
Some voices are starting to call for negotiations. Is this an option for you today?
Now is not the right time. Negotiations begin when at least one party, or both, has an interest. Such is not the case.
