Ukraine - Russia Conflict

Biden ranting about Putin.

Zelensky desperately seeking new weapons.

UK's Truss saying sanctions can be lifted if Russia withdraws.

So it appears Ukraine is winning.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ironhide
Countries are gonna reduce their reliance on Western payment systems. Those big enough will create their own. Those too small will latch on to multiple players. For example, both China and India are guaranteed to create such a system, separately.



No for both. For the former, China should start importing Russian hardware in greater quantities than India does, which they will not. Furthermore, we have signed an agreement with Russia last year to create JVs for spares production in India, which should significantly offset our dependency in time. The latter won't happen because of China's dependency on Russian oil. Even if it does happen, it's gonna take 15 years at the minimum, or at least until Putin is done. In just 10 more years, our dependency on Russia will fall massively due to the phase out of Russian equipment.
You can trade your Rubles using any platform. What ultimately defines the value of Rubles is its value in exchange for a US Dollar. Because that is the universal currency that everyone accepts in the world today. Every currency in the world including cryptos are defined using their dollar exchange rate.

An oil barrel is not priced in Ruble. Nobody is going to pay XX Roubles for a barrel of oil. What people will pay is $$ value for the oil multiplied by the $$ value of the Ruble. Dollar is sine qua non of international trade.

China does not need to import Russian hardware. They import Russian oil in far greater quantities. And more importantly, they export/ will export critical goods for the Ruskis which India does not and can not and the rest of the world is also about to stop.

Ergo Russia is China's bitch.
 
I believe that was the case even before this war if you ever got into it against China proper. This war has just made the situation even more obvious and yet still some refuse to see it.
Russians could have done it especially if China was strongly winning the war, but they also benefitted from strong India ties in the form of another moral supporter in the global stage.

But now they need real tangible support and only Chinese can give them that. Good thing for Russians is that they have the India-ties to trade in exchange for that support.
 

Since 1971 is being brought up & except for the Bangladeshi government that too only the Awami League under Shaikh Haseena, nobody, not even the Indian government is willing to acknowledge it as a Hindu genocide, which is what it was as 7/10 or 8/10 of the 3 million killed were Hindus , here's a reminder of those dark days.
Mate, I am not sure I understand what you're trying to infer here (as always your words are cryptic enough to decipher it next to impossible!). India has invoked the 1971 war, suffering of refugees and Bangladesh liberation repeatedly, even from top military & civil leadership.






https://twitter.com/kapskom/status/1507370876274192392?t=KlKWWCPRECaTcgVfd2o8YA&s=19

https://twitter.com/HQ_DG_NCC/status/1507783956300984322?t=FF96Au4hA0zTkhnmkBTluQ&s=19

https://twitter.com/atahasnain53/status/1507344473956646917?t=uXuN472FnKuHJzZzOQxsWQ&s=19

https://twitter.com/milinddeora/status/1505405057436569601?t=iPZ4Bq_mGuQySKjsgWtbNA&s=19


https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1501179449416744962?t=xizjmyBugVYx1FS8n1EBKg&s=19

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1471353163177291780?t=Yphgm-fDJqr0C_IrWa6DyQ&s=19


https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1451730671806803968?t=F9KKS6_84kWEeip313BIrg&s=19

https://twitter.com/PemaKhanduBJP/status/1440291224896737288?t=CV2hgQcZogWGSYLFtDLJUA&s=19

https://twitter.com/BiswajitThongam/status/1471352044518735875?t=cZ1hTnSjlJafhVnzAfWWuQ&s=19


https://twitter.com/SujanChinoy/status/1469915070608015363?t=VjnOh-EMf6FpeYjZfTdWXw&s=19
 
  • Informative
Reactions: BMD
India & sections of Bangladesh invoke the memories of those killed then as a genocide of Bangladeshis which is technically correct in a generic way. What's not publicised then or now especially by the GoI or even those sections in BD who observe this as a genocide is the fact that an overwhelming majority of those genocided were Hindus.

Hence this suppression of facts has now become accepted collective public memory by those commemorating this event & even those numbers are falling every year.

For more details or understanding of the issue at hand, I'd recommend this as essential reading in case you're interested.

 
You can trade your Rubles using any platform. What ultimately defines the value of Rubles is its value in exchange for a US Dollar. Because that is the universal currency that everyone accepts in the world today. Every currency in the world including cryptos are defined using their dollar exchange rate.

An oil barrel is not priced in Ruble. Nobody is going to pay XX Roubles for a barrel of oil. What people will pay is $$ value for the oil multiplied by the $$ value of the Ruble. Dollar is sine qua non of international trade.

Today, yeah. But what about 10 years down the line, with an India worth $10T and a China worth $30T, and both interested in diversifying away from USD? China is definitely going to push for using yuan, could very well start in just a few years. India will eventually push for the rupee.

The dollar's worth is based on how much demand is there for it in the international market. Right now they do not have a real competitor. Not so in the future.

China does not need to import Russian hardware. They import Russian oil in far greater quantities. And more importantly, they export/ will export critical goods for the Ruskis which India does not and can not and the rest of the world is also about to stop.


Ergo Russia is China's bitch.

So China buys oil from Russia? And that's enough? What if Russia decides to stop supplying oil and gas to China? How soon do you think China can replace Russian oil? How desperate can Russia be to supply oil to China at the cost of their sovereignty?

Before the war, the Russians could balance their budget with $44 oil. With the new exchange rate, the Russians will be able to balance their budget with $29. Meaning if they sell at $90 over the course of the year, the Russians will be able to make a 3x surplus for oil. Which means they are earning the money needed to balance their budget with just 4 months of oil sales. Which means they can stop supply of oil to China for the remaining 8 months, enough to make China struggle to find a different supplier to make up for the deficit, but at a much higher price and a massive hit to their overall economy. Is that really a price China will pay to make Russia their "bitch"?

Energy suppliers always have the advantage. Why? They have the least to lose from disruption, especially so if prices are many times higher than the break even point. And the rise in prices will offset a lot of the losses later on.

Countries will simply find ways to buy Russian oil without using USD. No different from how Iran has been selling China its oil. They will find places willing to round-trip oil from Russia, like the UAE, Iran, Venezuela etc. Cheap energy in the Third World is a massive advantage to remain competitive.
 

Joe Biden is not seeking "regime change" in Russia, the White House said Saturday, after the US president declared in a major speech that Vladimir Putin "cannot stay in power".

There's nothing more hilarious then seeing an Irishman pretending to be senile. The last time we had an Irishman who tried to pull off stunts like these , he nearly triggered off WW-3 & eventually got his head blown off for his pains .
#ILM#

I Wonder how will this Mick end up , Paddy . @BMD
 

Captain obvious.
 
It's naturally because of oil and gas. At market prices, Russian crude is more expensive than ME crude because of transportation costs. So the Russian market was China and Europe.

Due to sanctions, the Russians are providing discounts that make it affordable for shipping. In India's case, the Russians are selling oil at $25-30 discount, whereas shipping costs just $3-4 more than ME oil. So more countries will start buying their crude.
That makes no sense, ME crude should be more expensive to transport but less expensive to extract.

These comments seem unrelated to the points I made. My points were that China is a far bigger export and import partner of Russia than India and that only 16% of Chinese crude comes from Russia.
 
Russia's survival is very important for India, at least for the next 20 years, and even Europe. Europe is not looking at the big picture, they are still stuck in the Cold War era. They are not realising Putin won't stay in power forever, he's just a temporary blip in history. China is the real threat, and not simply because China is now enemies with India. What you fear Putin is capable of doing, China is actually capable of executing.
He's quite a big blip and you were damn stupid for tying yourself to bad actors, speaking from experience I know. China is not the immediate threat though and distance is also a factor. Russia is not that important to Europe, not to the extent that we will tolerate anything. And suppose China invaded India and we (US and Europe) didn't condemn it and then kept trading with China, how would you feel about that?
 
'Cause those voting booths were in Ukrainian majority regions.
So the rebels were afraid to allow a monitored vote and threatened people. That's why DPR and LPR couldn't participate.

They would have drilled it out if they could.
Nope, they were under Russia's thumb, same reason Assad doesn't have a pipeline running from ME to Europe. It's all to do with Russia controlling oil and gas supplies.

Seriously? Just look it up. It's all over the news. Even the Irish PM spoke about it.
You mean criticism? You expect not to be criticised? You would not criticise the EU, UK and US if they refused to condemn a full-scale Chinese invasion of India or Bangladesh and continued trading with them?


Very, very few. Basically India, or a collective GCC. Of course, China and Russia. And some deemed to be enemies, like Iran, Ven and NoKo.
Can't resist strong words?


Sheep-mindset.
You have the same mindset as the CCP and you call me a sheep? Idiot.

We can become the global police after we also become a $50000 per capita economy. Until then, we will take care of ourselves and our neighbourhood.
You're off-course for achieving that though. You are both supporting and dependent on the friend of your enemy.

Lol, it's about political power and power centers. Not just tourists, expats and immigrants with no political power.
We have a devolved government and around 10 mainstream parties across them with multiple ethnicities in each.
 
I have a question though, you saw what Russian Army has been doing till now. How do you know Chinese won't suffer a similar fate? They have never fought a real war properly and on their own. They have third rate weapons based mostly on stolen and improvised technologies. Their Army is basically conscripts. And their government lies. A lot! All ingredients for a massive mess in real world operations.
China's record isn't so great either. In the Korean War their tactics basically consisted of throwing tens of thousands of men into machine gun fire until the opposition ran out of coolant (and urine which was used as a field substitute). I doubt the modern day Chinese middle-class would put up with such stupidity from their government.