Ukraine - Russia Conflict

That's true for all nations.

It's not significantly more than 2.3m barrels per days and it's a lower percentage, so has a smaller % effect on economy. Saudi Arabia sells them more and guess who Saudi Arabia is likely to side with with reference to Pakistan.

Russia-China trade is around $150B. It can't be replaced.

Puppet regime is the same thing. They will need troops on the ground to have any chance of maintaining a pro-Russian regime on the ground after this and the G7 has already determined that Russian troops in Ukraine = sanctions stay in place. :poop:tin can either pull out or go bust.

Not really. Russian troops are not necessary for that. Pretty much all of Russia's objectives can be achieved via binding agreements on paper. Like neutrality, demilitarisation etc.

They won't after seeing what happened with the 500 airliners that got seized and knowing that their investments could be impacted by sanctions at any time due to the Russian government being complete nut-jobs. The US and Europe are larger and more stable markets.

Again, that's irrelevant. If someone wants to set up a car production factory in Russia to compensate for the loss of imports, they will do it.
 
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Global Firepower - 2022 World Military Strength Rankings are going to have to reassess their ranking, Russia is currently the second strongest military in Ukraine, not the world.

I hope this isn't propaganda that actually spreads in the EU, to the point where militarisation is affected.

Because the RA you see here is a highly constrained RA. They are fighting with both hands tied behind their backs. They screwed up in their expectations, but if they actually fought a "war", Ukraine would have been long gone within this timeframe. So the EU shouldn't roll back its modernisation, rather it should be increased.
 
Ruins of the elite 4th Operational Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine, based in Gostomel, Kiev region, after meeting with the landing force of the Russian Armed Forces:

Denazification in Donbass is in full swing:

 
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The work of Russian attack helicopters on the objects of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:

 
The Russian army destroyed armoured vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with precision-guided munitions:

 
There is no difference between Chinese media and western media, it is just that people are so brainwashed that they think western news agencies are not propaganda agents.

Reuters photographed Biden's paper with agreed questions from journalists and his answers:

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Footage of a cruise missile hitting the building of the Nikolaev regional administration:




The Aftermath:


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That page is full of propaganda. Chinese and Muslim trolls lecturing on morality.

Nope. In fact I guessed right in Jan on how it will unfold.

If anything I don't think Phase I will roll over to that extent, while Phase III won't happen at all. Meaning I doubt the Russians will ever cross the river or threaten Odessa.

They can take over the regions east of the river and then use their forces in Belarus to threaten Kiev for a settlement.

Taking over land up to the river will keep the Russians safe as well, even if Kiev doesn't settle. They will have an insurgency in their hands though.


So the Russians have concentrated on P2. Now one can argue they failed to achieve P1 or 3, but I don't believe that was the case, at least to the extent the narrative is being pushed. As already pointed out before, the Russians are fighting with a massive numerical disadvantage. And their numbers are going down while Ukrainian numbers are going up. So the objectives will be more realistic, like taking the south and east, where actual Russian interests are in play and the population is more receptive to Russian presence. Plus it doesn't make sense to cross the river, since the river can form a good defensive line against NATO.

@Picdelamirand-oil
 


What do you make of this Paddy? French fear mongering once again aimed at the Brits taking vicarious pleasure in your plight, more so since you're now minus the cover of the EU? Or is this a sign of things to come, BJ or no BJ? @BMD
 
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Nope. In fact I guessed right in Jan on how it will unfold.

If anything I don't think Phase I will roll over to that extent, while Phase III won't happen at all. Meaning I doubt the Russians will ever cross the river or threaten Odessa.

They can take over the regions east of the river and then use their forces in Belarus to threaten Kiev for a settlement.

Taking over land up to the river will keep the Russians safe as well, even if Kiev doesn't settle. They will have an insurgency in their hands though.


So the Russians have concentrated on P2. Now one can argue they failed to achieve P1 or 3, but I don't believe that was the case, at least to the extent the narrative is being pushed. As already pointed out before, the Russians are fighting with a massive numerical disadvantage. And their numbers are going down while Ukrainian numbers are going up. So the objectives will be more realistic, like taking the south and east, where actual Russian interests are in play and the population is more receptive to Russian presence. Plus it doesn't make sense to cross the river, since the river can form a good defensive line against NATO.

@Picdelamirand-oil
Yes, it is possible. But I have the impression that this is the new plan, and that the initial plan was more ambitious because the Russians did not expect such strong resistance from the Ukrainians.
 
Nope. In fact I guessed right in Jan on how it will unfold.

If anything I don't think Phase I will roll over to that extent, while Phase III won't happen at all. Meaning I doubt the Russians will ever cross the river or threaten Odessa.

They can take over the regions east of the river and then use their forces in Belarus to threaten Kiev for a settlement.

Taking over land up to the river will keep the Russians safe as well, even if Kiev doesn't settle. They will have an insurgency in their hands though.


So the Russians have concentrated on P2. Now one can argue they failed to achieve P1 or 3, but I don't believe that was the case, at least to the extent the narrative is being pushed. As already pointed out before, the Russians are fighting with a massive numerical disadvantage. And their numbers are going down while Ukrainian numbers are going up. So the objectives will be more realistic, like taking the south and east, where actual Russian interests are in play and the population is more receptive to Russian presence. Plus it doesn't make sense to cross the river, since the river can form a good defensive line against NATO.

@Picdelamirand-oil


The Russians had vastly more tanks, artillery, ships, cruise missiles and aircraft. Among the stated objectives was, "to remove the Nazis from Kyiv," which included Zelensky. Now they're getting their own ammo dumps in Russia and warships blown up.

FAILED: F- Must try harder.
 
I hope this isn't propaganda that actually spreads in the EU, to the point where militarisation is affected.

Because the RA you see here is a highly constrained RA. They are fighting with both hands tied behind their backs. They screwed up in their expectations, but if they actually fought a "war", Ukraine would have been long gone within this timeframe. So the EU shouldn't roll back its modernisation, rather it should be increased.
Oh don't worry, all NATO spending has increased across the board, with the US now at $0.8tr. A local and active threat is a local and active threat regardless of (in)competence levels.

:ROFLMAO:
You couldn't make this shit up. Fired 1,000 cruise missiles, roughly the same number as used in Desert Storm, and that's restrained warfare? Indiscriminately used area bombardment on cities, blew up hospitals and schools, and that's restrained warfare? Lost 16,000 soldiers and thousands of vehicles to make a land bridge? They could have just thrown them in the sea and poured asphalt and tar on them instead.