Ukraine - Russia Conflict

Well, you at least got some basic stuff right. But when economies go down, the trends happen over a longer term. The situation is nowhere near Zimbabwe though, especially when they are self-sufficient. There are way, way worse economies right now than Russia, like Pakistan, Sri Lanka. What's happening in Russia is just correction to a new reality, the sanctions. So their economy will fall, stabilise and then grow again.
exactly, iran is a case to the point their economy is certainly not flying but not down in dumps either. In fact if we look at at rouble it is actually stronger than Indian rupee at 66 roubles to a dollar. A weaker rouble will make oil exports more competitive which in turn will bring back foreign currency stabilizing the rouble, this feed back loop will keep playing out as long russia is able to export.
 
The work of the ACS 2S7M "Malka" in Ukraine. Despite its advanced age, and the "Malka" was developed on the basis of the older 2S7 "Peony" self-propelled gun, the 2S7M "Malka" in Ukraine with a caliber of 203 mm is in demand and is now used by the troops.


Footage of the combat departure of the Su-24M aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces in Ukraine. The video shows the moment when the Su-24M low-altitude FAB-250SH aerial bombs are dropped on the positions of the Ukrainian army, the bomb explodes in several modes, in this case it shows a delay in the response time

 
It's very less considering the shock the economy's faced, with imports going down to almost zero and even local bank transactions almost shutting down.
Still isn't close to normal. Low single digits is normal.
At this stage I think a no-fly zone over Lviv could work. Only cruise missiles are coming that far out.
 
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Import shock hasn't actually hit yet since they've been running on stockpile. When that runs out expect another economic shock. Around June time.

True. But it depends on the gold peg. If they fully go through with it, the ruble will stay rock solid.

There's also the issue of low demand caused by inflation and loss of jobs which should slow down imports. In any case, a lot of what they used to import can be substituted using India and China. It's already begun. Indian replacements are expected to hit the shelves in June, non-sanctioned goods like food and medicine.

What's with the name change?
If Pooty-poo does declare war and full mobilization on May 9th Russian economy will crash hard.

Look, another PhD in economics.
 
exactly, iran is a case to the point their economy is certainly not flying but not down in dumps either. In fact if we look at at rouble it is actually stronger than Indian rupee at 66 roubles to a dollar. A weaker rouble will make oil exports more competitive which in turn will bring back foreign currency stabilizing the rouble, this feed back loop will keep playing out as long russia is able to export.

Yep.

But the European oil and gas ban will hit Russia hard though. I'm looking forward to see how they will get through it.
 
True. But it depends on the gold peg. If they fully go through with it, the ruble will stay rock solid.

There's also the issue of low demand caused by inflation and loss of jobs which should slow down imports. In any case, a lot of what they used to import can be substituted using India and China. It's already begun. Indian replacements are expected to hit the shelves in June, non-sanctioned goods like food and medicine.

What's with the name change?


Look, another PhD in economics.

The goods are secondary impact compared to the supply chain and technology inputs. The former is about consumer happiness. I hope you can provide a lot of sugar.

90% of a factory might be Russian components, but the last 10% can entirely halt production. It takes a long time to switch over to Chinese tech/software. This is also compounded by losing IT/engineer workers on masse.

I don't find Russia's oil/gas redirection plan credible either. There's been 100 years of pipelines and infrastructure designed to export to Europe. They need hundreds of billions of dollars in infrastructure development. Ships and LNG aren't even comparable in volume to pipelines. Furthermore, Russian oil and gas is actually running out. They have no more cheap fields. Good luck extracting that without Western oil experts. China doesn't have any, since China doesn't have a lot of oil obviously. There will be an escalation of sanctions on the insurance/transportation/shipping Russian oil as well. Russian oil will be stuck in Russia, underground without the infrastructure, tech or buyers to boot.

Yes, Russian managed to avoid the Mike Tyson 1st round punch knockout, but they are also fighting Ali endurance.



Just to avoid complications later for name.
 
Captain of the first rank in reserve, expert of the Center for Defense Strategies Andrei Ryzhenko said that the accurate strikes of the APU on the island of Snake significantly complicated the enemy's reconnaissance in the northeastern Black Sea.