Ukraine - Russia Conflict
- Thread starter randomradio
- Start date
Mein understanding of Russian economics is as good as your understanding of Russian tactics.
Ukraine should take the fight into Russian soil and hit Belgorod. Russia uses Belgorod as main hub to support Donbas offensive. I think once those western arty's get deployed they will be able to launch such operations. Don't hold Belgorod but shell it. Russians being arrogant very likely didn't plan on Ukraine being able to cross into Russian territory.
Lol. Speech tells me he's not as dumb as he looks and sees the writing on the wall but he may not have control of his military anymore. Lets see what happens with that Belarusian military exercise they are having.
What exactly are you referring to?
It's difficult to say. The sanctions will either create a revolution within Russia for machine tools. Or they will just buy from China and India in the long term, with a temporary short-term disruption until they transition. Both China and India have plans to become self-reliant in every segment of production.
Oil ships have to travel longer, but it's possible as long as a large enough discount is applied to make up for it. Russia can afford the discount as well. They may have to build a new oil pipeline that can move oil from the Urals to Vladivostok to reduce shipping costs. Gas shipping will suffer, the Russians do not have enough LNG facilities yet.
But I feel Europe will buy a sizable amount of Russian gas well beyond 2024. In the end, it's still gonna be a supply-demand issue. Those that can import from Russia and other exporters will have a greater advantage over countries that have sanctioned Russia. Or else the long term effect is the death of Europe's industry due to expensive energy and intense mid to long term competition from emerging markets for high end goods.
Pro human boxers against a brown bear... the odds are lopsided. If Iran and Venezuela have survived, I don't think Russia will face real issues.
Thought you wanted to join the circus the others started here.
Russia tried an unvalidated concept in the field and it did not work.
Its set piece strategy does not help since the real time intel made available to Ukraine prevents even tactical surprises.
All the twitter posts here wont count for jack if Putin can sell a win to his audience. And by the looks of it, he is getting some of his objectives. A major city is not worth breaking your forces - case point (Kharkov - USSR, Stalingrad - Nazi Germany). Let the other side make emotion driven decisions on war strategy.
Russia wont give a rat's fart over a thousand T-72s. They probably have another 2-3000 in storage somewhere.
My guess ( take it with a pinch of salt ) is Russia is going to do what it historically does the best, try to win the attrition game.
Its set piece strategy does not help since the real time intel made available to Ukraine prevents even tactical surprises.
All the twitter posts here wont count for jack if Putin can sell a win to his audience. And by the looks of it, he is getting some of his objectives. A major city is not worth breaking your forces - case point (Kharkov - USSR, Stalingrad - Nazi Germany). Let the other side make emotion driven decisions on war strategy.
Russia wont give a rat's fart over a thousand T-72s. They probably have another 2-3000 in storage somewhere.
My guess ( take it with a pinch of salt ) is Russia is going to do what it historically does the best, try to win the attrition game.
Ukraine goes on counter-offensive on two fronts - Zaluzhnyi
ROMAN PETRENKO - THURSDAY, 5 MAY 2022, 14:02 Valeriy Zaluzhniy, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, has announced that Ukraine's defence forces have launched counteroffensives on the Kharkiv and Izyum fronts.
Except they're devoting massive resources to Mariupol. They also lost 1,000 men in 3 days trying to take Kharkiv over the May Day weekend. So maybe the lesson is not learned.
They're not just T-72s, there are T-90Ms among them now. And it's about 1,100 now, with ~2,700 APCs (BMPs/BTRs etc.) and 2,000+ other land vehicles, not including artillery, MLRS, special vehicles and SAMs.
Well they're certainly doing that... they're dying more than the other side.
That isn't going to happen. Putin has killed the Russian economy. Short of the people exercising regime change, I can't see any way to fix it at this point.
Ukraine is doing better in the field, but it's still not good enough.
But that's not their intention though. Bit off more than they could chew.