Ukraine - Russia Conflict
- Thread starter randomradio
- Start date
Sorry, I couldn't hear for all your bahhing.Just like how you're a Western sheep, there will be plenty of Russian sheep to bleed for their motherland.
Okay.
The Russians, or anybody for that matter, are not dumb enough to compete with the Americans in mass producing prototypes.
So where are the Russian jets flying round with their equivalent of Brimstones, JDAMs and Paveways, laying waste to Ukrainian armour parked in fields from 30,000ft?
They're just not enough to compete, full-stop.
A non-stealthy stealth aircraft.
Inability to conduct SEAD/DEAD.
Inability to perform attack helicopter anti-armour role.
Result - bogged down in stalemate, almost a return to trench warfare, except with better artillery, drones and armour. Massive overuse of cruise missiles and SRBMs to accomplish what a decent air force with JDAMs could, hence higher costs.
There were 190,000 troops originally, and more Chechens, Syrians and Libyans were shipped in since. What happened to the other 90,000 + hired help?
With The KIA meaning Kill In Action and WIA meaning Wonded In Action he said:
And also
So a total estimate of 11000 KIA + 38500 WIA = 49500 Soldier out of combat.
Throughout the history russians have lost heavily and then clawed back later. Whether it was during napoleonic era or world war 2 they were the one who suffered one most casualties but still prevailed in the end.
This is not afghanistan which was 100's of miles away , if russians cannot protect supply lines then they cannot protect their border as well.
so sweet.
"Investors who shorted -- sold borrowed shares with the intention of buying them back more cheaply before returning them -- are still borrowing, paying the associated fees indefinitely."
"Ian Bezek, a Colombia-based investor and financial writer, has a $10,800 short position on ERUS. The 33-year-old is now paying an annualized borrow rate hovering at around 60%"
finance.yahoo.com
"Investors who shorted -- sold borrowed shares with the intention of buying them back more cheaply before returning them -- are still borrowing, paying the associated fees indefinitely."
"Ian Bezek, a Colombia-based investor and financial writer, has a $10,800 short position on ERUS. The 33-year-old is now paying an annualized borrow rate hovering at around 60%"
Investors Who Shorted Russia ETFs Are Now Stuck Paying Never-Ending Fees
(Bloomberg) -- Investors who bet against ETFs tracking Russian assets in the build up to the Ukraine invasion made the right call -- and they’ve been paying the price ever since.Most Read from BloombergOnetime Richest Singapore Tycoon Has Lost 80% of His FortuneMeet the Hedge-Fund Manager Who...
Do you know what's the difference between those wars and now?
When Napoleon invaded Russia, the Russians set their own cities on fire and went into hiding, waiting for their terrible weather to do their fighting for them. When Hitler invaded Russia, the Russians sent millions of people into the meatgrinder figuring that they had more troops than the Germans had bullets, and in the end it's still mostly the terrible Russian weather that won for them.
In this current war, however, Ukraine is not invading Russia. It's the other way around. I feel that I need to precise this because it does not appear to be very clear in the minds of some of the forumers here. Today, it's Russia that is in the role of Hitler or Napoleon. It's Russia who is attempting to conquer a country that hates them, it's Russia who has to deal with logistics problems because they're not at home, it's Russia who has to deal with partisans and resistance because they're not at home.
So if you want to compare this, compare it to another Russian war of conquest. Like Afghanistan. Did they prevail in the end in Afghanistan?
The Soviet Union had a common border with Afghanistan. So Afghanistan wasn't hundreds of miles away, it was zero centimeters away as a neighboring country. Just like Ukraine is to the Russian Federation.
Also the main logistics hub for the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine is Belgorod. Which the Ukrainians have already hit with helicopter raids, Toshka missiles, and so on.
Oh puh-leeze! How long are they going to milk WW2 false narrative. Without lend lease Soviets would have been crushed by zee nazis. Even Stalin himself admits to this.
-The Short History Of The Great Patriotic War, also from 1948, acknowledged the Lend-Lease shipments, but concluded: "Overall this assistance was not significant enough to in any way exert a decisive influence over the course of the Great Patriotic War."
Nikolai Ryzhkov, the last head of the government of the Soviet Union, wrote in 2015 that "it can be confidently stated that [Lend-Lease assistance] did not play a decisive role in the Great Victory."
Such assessments, however, are contradicted by the opinions of Soviet war participants. Most famously, Soviet dictator Josef Stalin raised a toast to the Lend-Lease program at the November 1943 Tehran conference with British Prime Minister Winston Churchill and U.S. President Franklin Roosevelt.
"I want to tell you what, from the Russian point of view, the president and the United States have done for victory in this war," Stalin said. "The most important things in this war are the machines.... The United States is a country of machines. Without the machines we received through Lend-Lease, we would have lost the war."
Nikita Khrushchev offered the same opinion.
"If the United States had not helped us, we would not have won the war," he wrote in his memoirs. "One-on-one against Hitler's Germany, we would not have withstood its onslaught and would have lost the war. No one talks about this officially, and Stalin never, I think, left any written traces of his opinion, but I can say that he expressed this view several times in conversations with me."
'We Would Have Lost': Did U.S. Lend-Lease Aid Tip The Balance In Soviet Fight Against Nazi Germany?
Ever since the Cold War, many Soviet and Russian politicians and academics have downplayed the role that U.S.-provided weapons and supplies played in the Red Army's ultimately victorious campaign against Hitler's Germany. But there is substantial evidence that the huge influx of materiel made an...
www.rferl.org
Russia is isolated and has no access to tech that they need for their war machine. Today Russia are the nazis and Ukraine the Soviets which will have $ billions of western weapons at their disposal.
Yeah when the Russians had good demographics and many soldiers to chuck at people they were a formidable force. Let's not forget two of Russia's biggest wins were allied to the world leading economic and naval powers each time.
Since the 20th century started Russia has went through something like 10-15 wars/famines/purges that have killed 60 million, with untold millions not born because of the dead.
Russia has 1.5 fertility rate. And their population pyramid can still see the effects of WW2 very clearly.
Russia will bounce back in the sense North Korea is super dangerous and Russian information tactics.
But ambitions for wealth, technology, and military power?
I doubt it. Maybe as a Chinese puppet they will threaten Europe again along Taiwan.
I know you can't hear, I'm speaking human after all.
What jets? There aren't any. I thought you believed some random infographics.
No, actually the Russians are doing quite well. Which is why they don't need to mobilise.
Not what's in Ukraine.
120 BTGs is no more than 84000 troops. And there are a few more support units from the Russian side. And about 20-25000 separatists.
Footage of the combat operation of the Orlan-10 UAV was shown by the Russian Defense Ministry. The Orlan-10 UAV began to be delivered to the troops in 2010 and by now is the most massive UAV of the Russian army used in Ukraine. The Orlan-10 has a mass of 14 kg and is capable of carrying up to 4 high-explosive shells. In various configurations, UAVs can conduct surveillance in the optical and infrared range. Orlan‑10 is capable of automatically detecting the positions of switched-on GSM phones, VHF communication stations, operating radars.
The Russian army in the Zaporozhye direction stopped an attempt to counterattack the Ukrainian armed forces. An attempt to attack Russian units by the forces of two Ukrainian mechanized battalions on tanks and infantry fighting vehicles was made near the village of Vishnevoye, Zaporozhye region. The enemy was spotted in time, UAVs and Russian artillery strikes were inflicted on parts of the Ukrainian army. After that, Russian tanks, BPM and infantry units, supported by artillery, destroyed the retreating equipment of Ukraine. According to the results of the battle, 26 Ukrainian tanks, 12 infantry fighting vehicles and about 100 soldiers were destroyed.
The work of Russian 120 mm mortar crews in Ukraine
The Russian army in the Zaporozhye direction stopped an attempt to counterattack the Ukrainian armed forces. An attempt to attack Russian units by the forces of two Ukrainian mechanized battalions on tanks and infantry fighting vehicles was made near the village of Vishnevoye, Zaporozhye region. The enemy was spotted in time, UAVs and Russian artillery strikes were inflicted on parts of the Ukrainian army. After that, Russian tanks, BPM and infantry units, supported by artillery, destroyed the retreating equipment of Ukraine. According to the results of the battle, 26 Ukrainian tanks, 12 infantry fighting vehicles and about 100 soldiers were destroyed.
The work of Russian 120 mm mortar crews in Ukraine
The estimate is 1/3rd of the 120 deployed BTGs destroyed, with 50% casualties. That's 40 BTG x 600 average personnel / 2 = 12000 casualties.
12000 / 3.5 = 3400 KIA, which means 8600 WIA. So these are part of destroyed BTGs.
Assuming 25% casualties on average in the remaining 80 BTGs with a total of 48000 personnel, we can estimate total casualties as 12000.
So 12000 + 12000 = 24000 total casualties across 120 BTGs.
That's how many troops the Russians need to replenish. With almost 7000 KIA.
It doesn't make sense to have more casualties because the BTG strength itself is merely 72000 for 600 average personnel each. 72000/3 = 24000. And this number itself is way too high. Like, the 50% casualty estimate for destroyed BTGs is quite high. Similarly even 25% is high.
In fact we can assume that a mechanised BTG can cease to function after a few tanks and IFVs are killed. Even if 3 or 4 tanks out of a total of 10 are destroyed, the personnel loss is merely 9-12 in order to stop the offensive. Many motorised/mechanised BTGs with 10 tanks each lost all their tanks, which still amounts to 30 men. Armoured BTGs with 30 tanks may absorb more damage, but assuming 30% loss, or 10 tanks, that's still only 30 men. If their inability to tolerate such minor losses is preventing more aggressive tactics, then it makes sense that the actual casualty figures are even lower than 24000.
If each mech/motor BTG loses all 10 tanks and 10 out of 30 IFVs to render them inoperative, the total personnel exposed to attack is 130. Assuming half are casualties, for 40 BTGs, that's 2600 men. That's not a lot.
The initial 150-190k troops seems to have been overestimated.
It's not the same situation, and it doesn't seem like the Russians have lost heavily. At least we do not know the full situation because we do not have Ukrainian loss estimates.
Plus Ukraine could be running out of imported ATGMs and MANPADs.
They lost the will to fight while defending hostile territory. But still... yeah.
Russians admitted 500 dead 1 week into the war (after that they stopped revealing casualties). When Russians admit 500, its atleast 1,500. That's just first week of the war. After the first week, Russians were getting hunted down mercilessly by the Ukrainians. The Russian KIA should be atleast 10k right now with 30K WIA.
Russians are retreating if you haven't noticed. They are retreating because they are getting their a** kicked. They can't even concentrate forces for an attack or capture a village without fighting for it over weeks. Even then, Ukrainians are counter attacking recapturing it in a week or two.
Afghanistan and Chechnya looks like a children's play compared to this disaster.
The first week is always the most intensive in any war. It eventually dies down in intensity. Also, we more or less know the numbers fighting now on the Russian side, and it's not a very impressive number. And 1/3rd of 150-190k sounds impressive, but 1/3rd of way less than 100k does not, especially without knowing the extent of Ukraine's losses.
As for the Russians retreating, that's only Ukraine's side of the story. Two days ago, the Russians took 3 villages east of Izyum. The media on both sides are not giving us a complete picture of what's happening on the ground. Outside Russia, Ukraine is winning the perception war, the most irrelevant aspect of the war when it doesn't conform to ground realities. But, at the same time, it's the Ukrainians and the West pushing for talks, the Russians don't really seem to care at all. So that doesn't match up to reality.
With their current strength I doubt they will be able to take all of the Donbas, or even encircle the Ukrainians from Izyum to Donetsk, but neither the published manpower losses nor the media perception match reality. To make matters worse for the Ukrainians, the Russians are busy digging in, in the West, Kherson and Zapo, while the offensive is happening in Donbas. And a new offensive to take Severodonetsk is building up, especially with Russia making gains around Izyum, Lyman and Pospana. It's believed there are 20+ BTGs in Sever, about 10 in Pospana and 20+ more in the Izyum/Lyman regions.
Simply put, the Ukrainians are unable to fully stop the Russian offensive, where the Russians want to conduct an offensive, no matter how slowly it happens. And wherever the Russians have retreated is being considered a victory through a counteroffensive, just 'cause the Russians have retreated into more defensible positions in areas where offensives are unnecessary at this time.
Ukraine claims guerrillas have killed several high-ranking Russians in southern city
Ukrainian guerrilla fighters reportedly have killed several high-ranking Russian officers in the southern city of Melitopol, the regional administration said on Telegram.