Ukraine - Russia Conflict

That tweet was talking about China failing to be a reliable ally to Russia. 'Cause I guess trade with the US is far more important to the Chinese.



There is no need for it, Tochka and HIMARS are well within its ability to bring down. All of the technology needed for it is carried on the truck itself. The missile is basically a stick lobbed to kill the target.
For now that's probably true, but then it's also true that trade with China is probably more important to Russia. Russia has isolated itself with its morally bankrupt move on Ukraine.

If that were the case, then everyone would be using RFCLOS missiles to shoot down SRBMs and artillery rockets. @Picdelamirand-oil maybe you could provide an opinion on this. An RFCLOS missile like those of the Pantsir-S1 shooting down a Mach 5 SRBM. Realistic? To me it seems as daft as when they tried to shoot down an SLBM with a Crotale on The Wolf's Call (movie).
 
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For now that's probably true, but then it's also true that trade with China is probably more important to Russia. Russia has isolated itself with its morally bankrupt move on Ukraine.

It depends on far too many factors. It's not just oil sales, the Russians need access to semiconductors and other electronics. India is yet to be able to provide such technologies, so China could be holding back due to the leverage. They even need car parts and other industrial products.

If that were the case, then everyone would be using RFCLOS missiles to shoot down SRBMs and artillery rockets. @Picdelamirand-oil maybe you could provide an opinion on this. An RFCLOS missile like those of the Pantsir-S1 shooting down a Mach 5 SRBM. Realistic?

Not necessarily. Tochka and artillery shells follow predictable trajectories, so the Pantsir can be used against such targets. Plus the mach 5 of Tochka is only at the end of its boost phase. Once it starts dropping, the speed reduces drastically due to air resistance, enough for the Pantsir to engage it.

It will get far more complex with newer missiles that can manoeuvre while being faster. The Russians have other SAMs for that.

Tor also does what the Pantsir does using a very cheap missile.

Basically, if you remove seeker from the equation, the remaining electronics components are basically as expensive as a cheap laptop. I won't be surprised if the most expensive part in these missiles is only the fuel.
 
It depends on far too many factors. It's not just oil sales, the Russians need access to semiconductors and other electronics. India is yet to be able to provide such technologies, so China could be holding back due to the leverage. They even need car parts and other industrial products.



Not necessarily. Tochka and artillery shells follow predictable trajectories, so the Pantsir can be used against such targets. Plus the mach 5 of Tochka is only at the end of its boost phase. Once it starts dropping, the speed reduces drastically due to air resistance, enough for the Pantsir to engage it.

It will get far more complex with newer missiles that can manoeuvre while being faster. The Russians have other SAMs for that.

Tor also does what the Pantsir does using a very cheap missile.

Basically, if you remove seeker from the equation, the remaining electronics components are basically as expensive as a cheap laptop. I won't be surprised if the most expensive part in these missiles is only the fuel.
This is the problem when you assume Russian missiles are cheaper than Western ones. They use imported electronics, usually imported from the West.

Dude, if that were true, would the US, Israel, France etc. be developing fancy ARH and IIR seekers and huge dual-polarised AESA radars for BMD? When some shitty RFCLOS pile of crap could have done the same job. Also, the trajectory isn't completely predictable, you have atmospheric deviations and deviations to follow INS guidance system. A Tochka is beyond the stated max target speed for a Pantsir-S1 and even an S-350 system.


  • Ability to track airborne targets at velocities between 10 to 1,100 metres / sec;


If you run the numbers, it simply can't hit something moving that fast, even if it could track it, which it also can't. The errors in range and distance at 10km are around 5m and a a 2m/s velocity error. The radar doesn't know exactly where missile is or will be, and the missile is following commands from the radar only, with control lag and physical lag. That's bad enough before you consider that the same applies to the missile the Pantsir fired and is trying to guide, which it also has to track. So at any time, the estimate of where each missile will be relative to each other in 1s time is 14m. You can't hit a ballistic missile without terminal homing, sorry.


Both Tor and Pantsir are designed to target helicopters, low flying attack jets and cruise missiles and that's all. That's why Russia has S-3/4/500 systems.

Still no, no, and no. No it can't intercept a ballistic missile and no real-time control equipment isn't that cheap either. Then you have actuation system, fabrication of the actuators, missile and fuel. E.g. A GBU-12 costs only $21k, so laser seekers are cheap. The only terminal homing a Starstreak has is laser and yet the missile costs £100k. And no, it can't hit ballistic missiles either. You are dreaming.
 
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This is the problem when you assume Russian missiles are cheaper than Western ones. They use imported electronics, usually imported from the West.

All cheap COTS.

Dude, if that were true, would the US, Israel, France etc. be developing fancy ARH and IIR seekers and huge dual-polarised AESA radars for BMD? When some shitty RFCLOS pile of crap could have done the same job. Also, the trajectory isn't completely predictable, you have atmospheric deviations and deviations to follow INS guidance system. A Tochka is beyond the stated max target speed for a Pantsir-S1 and even an S-350 system.





If you run the numbers, it simply can't hit something moving that fast, even if it could track it, which it also can't. The errors in range and distance at 10km are around 5m and a a 2m/s velocity error. The radar doesn't know exactly where missile is or will be, and the missile is following commands from the radar only, with control lag and physical lag. That's bad enough before you consider that the same applies to the missile the Pantsir fired and is trying to guide, which it also has to track. So at any time, the estimate of where each missile will be relative to each other in 1s time is 14m. You can't hit a ballistic missile without terminal homing, sorry.


Both Tor and Pantsir are designed to target helicopters, low flying attack jets and cruise missiles and that's all. That's why Russia has S-3/4/500 systems.

Still no, no, and no. No it can't intercept a ballistic missile and no real-time control equipment isn't that cheap either. Then you have actuation system, fabrication of the actuators, missile and fuel. E.g. A GBU-12 costs only $21k, so laser seekers are cheap. The only terminal homing a Starstreak has is laser and yet the missile costs £100k. And no, it can't hit ballistic missiles either. You are dreaming.

Pantsir's seeker is on the launcher. The kill is made from less than 10Km away using a radar that's more powerful and accurate than a seeker. You are confusing the Pantsir with long range SAMs. In fact, the Pantsir can even kill missiles like the Brahmos. They even have a CIWS class system for ships.
 
@BMD
“In purchasing power parity, they spend about one dollar to our 20 dollars to get to the same capability,” he told his audience. “We are going to lose if we can’t figure out how to drop the cost and increase the speed in our defense supply chains,” Holt added.
 
@BMD
“In purchasing power parity, they spend about one dollar to our 20 dollars to get to the same capability,” he told his audience. “We are going to lose if we can’t figure out how to drop the cost and increase the speed in our defense supply chains,” Holt added.
Interesting but wrong thread. Not sure it's true either.
 
All cheap COTS.



Pantsir's seeker is on the launcher. The kill is made from less than 10Km away using a radar that's more powerful and accurate than a seeker. You are confusing the Pantsir with long range SAMs. In fact, the Pantsir can even kill missiles like the Brahmos. They even have a CIWS class system for ships.
Not when imported. Based on the leaked costs for Kalibrs and Iskander-Ms, they're certainly no cheaper. Same goes for Igla vs Stinger.

You've literally ignored the facts. The target could be twice that range away, I picked a midpoint. Range to target makes no odds to distance accuracy, it depends on pulse width. See that shitty little radar on the Pantsir-S1? Compare that to the radar on systems known to be capable of tracking high velocity BM targets for intercept with terminal homing missiles. As usual you assume everyone else is stupid and is needlessly wasting money.

Brahmos is a cruise missile that flies at Mach 2 at low level (780m/s) and Mach 3 at high level (885m/s). This is well within the stated 1,100m/s maximum target speed. It also flies a nice level path.

Your argument has deviated from being merely wrong to whacky and absurd. You've also provided no evidence of cost whatsoever, or shootdown whatsoever.
 
how abt a war near suez canal , seems europe might be painting itself into a corner.

 
Not when imported. Based on the leaked costs for Kalibrs and Iskander-Ms, they're certainly no cheaper. Same goes for Igla vs Stinger.

You've literally ignored the facts. The target could be twice that range away, I picked a midpoint. Range to target makes no odds to distance accuracy, it depends on pulse width. See that shitty little radar on the Pantsir-S1? Compare that to the radar on systems known to be capable of tracking high velocity BM targets for intercept with terminal homing missiles. As usual you assume everyone else is stupid and is needlessly wasting money.

Brahmos is a cruise missile that flies at Mach 2 at low level (780m/s) and Mach 3 at high level (885m/s). This is well within the stated 1,100m/s maximum target speed. It also flies a nice level path.

Your argument has deviated from being merely wrong to whacky and absurd. You've also provided no evidence of cost whatsoever, or shootdown whatsoever.

That shitty radar is the same size as a fighter's radar.

Ah, so Brahmos is more predictable than a Cold War era ballistic missile. Yeah, just when I think things can't get any stupider...
 
how abt a war near suez canal , seems europe might be painting itself into a corner.


Oil isn't a serious long term problem, Iran and Venezuela will join the list of exporters again.

But gas definitely is, because Russia is a major supplier.
 
That shitty radar is the same size as a fighter's radar.

Ah, so Brahmos is more predictable than a Cold War era ballistic missile. Yeah, just when I think things can't get any stupider...
What? And you think a fighter's radar is good enough the hit BMs with an RFCLOS missile. You're just making yourself look stupid.

A ship defence system defends targets coming directly for the ship at very close ranges. And the guns are there to spam lead when the missiles fail. A crossing target is much harder, and you're comparing Mach 2 to Mach 5 as well. Show evidence of a) an intercept, b) a price.

All I can find is evidence of failure.
 
how abt a war near suez canal , seems europe might be painting itself into a corner.

Negligible for EU, tough for Kazakhstan.
 
The oil depot in the Kirovsky district of occupied Donetsk, where there was a fire yesterday, is burning again.

Sounds like it was costly on Russian lives.

In the east of our country, the enemy is still trying to establish complete control over the territory of Luhansk region. report to the General Staff of the Armed Forces. In the Sloviansk region, the enemy unsuccessfully stormed Bogorodichne. Near Kramatorsk, the Kremlin raiders made unsuccessful assault attempts in the direction of Hryhorivka and Verkhnokamyanskyi. In the direction of Bakhmut, Ukrainian soldiers inflicted losses on the enemy when he tried to improve his tactical position near Vershyn and Berestovo. The Russian Nazis retreated in panic. In the Avdiyiv, Kurakhiv, Novopavliv and Zaporizhzhya directions, mutual shelling from barrel and rocket artillery continues along the contact line.

More free tanks appear as flooded river banks north of Kyiv dry up.