Guerre en Ukraine : après cent cinquante jours, l’étrange enlisement de l’armée russe
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
War in Ukraine: after 150 days, the strange stalemate of the Russian army
The Russian invasion has passed the five-month mark, marked by a drop in the intensity of fighting on the front line. Is this strategic exhaustion or a tactical feint? Experts are divided on Moscow's capabilities.
By Emmanuel Grynszpan
Strategic exhaustion or tactical feint? The Russian army has been on operational pause for two and a half weeks. A strange pause, out of step with the verbal aggression deployed by the Russian leaders. On 16 July, the end of the operational pause was announced by the Russian Minister of Defence, Sergei Shoigu, ordering in passing "an intensification of operations in all directions". On 20 July, his foreign affairs counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, promised a territorial extension of the conflict "beyond Donbass". In early July, Russian President Vladimir Putin said: "Everyone should know that, on the whole, we have not yet started anything serious in Ukraine.
When he announced the end of the pause on 16 July, Sergei Shoigu ordered the generals to "exclude the possibility of the Kiev regime inflicting massive rocket and artillery fire on civilian infrastructure and inhabitants of populated areas of Donbass and other regions". The only visible translation of these orders into action was the multiplication, during the month of July, of Russian cruise missile attacks on Ukrainian cities (Chassiv Yar, Kharkiv, Bakhmut, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Mykolaïv), including those far from the front line (Odessa, Vinnytsia, Krementchouk, Dnipro, Kryvy Rih), causing dozens of deaths among the civilian population.
After the surprise of the first few days, the Russian side showed itself to be rather stingy in terms of tactical genius, advancing only frontally, thanks to the overwhelming superiority of its firepower. The minimal objective of the conquest of the Donbass is far from being achieved. The junction with the Moldovan border, to cut off Ukraine's access to the Black Sea, now seems unlikely. But less so than a regime change in Kiev. "Russia will necessarily help Ukraine to get rid of the "anti-people" regime in Kiev," the Russian foreign minister promised the official Tass agency on Sunday.
Disinformation on the state of the troops
Initially, the conquest of Ukraine was supposed to be completed in a handful of days, according to Moscow's propagandists. By the 151st, Russia seems to be stiffening on the trajectory of the stalemate, betting on Ukraine's wear and tear and the fatigue of its Western backers. Unless the Russian general staff resumes the use of maskirovka, this "operational camouflage" consisting in carrying out demonstrative actions, simulating concentrations and dispositions of troops and military installations. Careful attention was paid to misinforming the state of its own troops and the nature of the actions to come in the preparation and conduct of operations. But is this still possible today in the face of powerful American intelligence? Also in the face of Ukrainian officers, who learned maskirovka at the same Soviet school?
Experts are divided on the Russian capacity to continue its invasion of Ukraine. The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War believes that Russia "is not yet in a position to accelerate the pace of progress after the operational pause". The Russian-formed Conflict Intelligence Team, now in exile, believes that "the operational pause is not yet over. It can be truly said to have ended when the third army corps of volunteer battalions [currently trained at the Moulino centre] in the Nizhny-Novgorod region is deployed to the front line. According to Ukrainian military intelligence spokesman Vadym Skibitsky, the third corps would include 15,000 volunteers and eight new battalions already trained out of a total of 16.
"We have to give the Russians the benefit of the doubt for another two weeks. If the offensive does not resume, it means that they no longer have the human capacity to carry it out, at least for three to five months," says reserve colonel and military expert Serhiï Grabsky. "If they don't manage to take the relatively vulnerable cities of Siversk and Bakhmut, there is no chance that they will be able to take very well-protected cities like Sloviansk or Kramatorsk. The conquest of the Donbass will end there for them and they will be forced to adopt a defensive posture from now on."
Decline in artillery fire
All observers agree that Russian forces have stopped conducting ground offensives in the Donbass, as on the other fronts, limiting themselves to reconnaissance operations. The front, which is more than 1 000 kilometres long, is stable, and half of the Donetsk region remains under Ukrainian control. The fighting has, of course, not stopped and artillery duels continue unabated. But the pace of the slaughter has slowed considerably, at least as far as the Ukrainian side knows. The president, Volodymyr Zelensky, said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal on Saturday 23 July that daily losses had fallen to 30 soldiers killed and 250 wounded a day. During the worst phase of the invasion, in May and June, the daily average of Ukrainian soldiers killed was 200 or more, according to official Ukrainian sources.
The Ukrainian president explains the sharp drop in Ukrainian casualties as a consequence of the supply of Western weapons. The rate of Ukrainian artillery fire had fallen to between 1,000 and 2,000 rounds per day, compared with 12,000 rounds fired by Russian forces. Now, according to Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukrainian artillery fires about 6,000 rounds a day. On the other hand, the Russian army has been forced to reduce the rate of its artillery fire because of the destruction of some 40 ammunition depots since the end of June.
Widely used by open data experts since the beginning of the conflict, NASA's Firms data (near-real-time satellite observations of active fires and thermal anomalies) corroborate this hypothesis. The reduction of fires around the front line, at least in the Donbass segment, would indicate a relative decrease in the intensity of artillery fire. New Western weapons, such as the French Caesar or German Panzerhaubitze 2000 howitzers, and especially the American Himars and M270 multiple rocket launchers, allow the Ukrainian army to carry out deep strikes that disrupt Russian logistics and command. Until it adapts to the new situation.
"The Russians are thus obliged to disperse and move their depots away from the front line and place them near the coast, which, unless they have many more trucks, considerably lengthens the delays. Larger elongations also mean that more fuel is needed than shells. As on the Ukrainian side, this slows down operations while accelerating the advance towards the omega point, that moment when it is no longer possible to attack for lack of shells," writes French military analyst Michel Goya on his website "La voie de l'épée".
Psychological pressure on the enemy
In the air, the engagements of the past month show that the Russian air force is continuing its efforts to suppress the Ukrainian anti-aircraft defences, but without succeeding. Russia wants to be able to use air and missile attacks to further hamper the crucial delivery of Western military supplies to Ukraine. In the opposite direction, the American Himars are involved in the Ukrainian effort to eliminate Russian anti-aircraft defences, with a view to a Ukrainian counter-offensive, which will have to be supported by the air force.
In the current uncertain phase, the initiative seems perhaps, for the first time since the beginning of the conflict, to lie with the Ukrainian side. Several waves of fire late last week against three bridges crucial to the supply of the Russian army could foreshadow a large-scale encirclement threatening the Russian army corps occupying the right bank of the Dnieper, i.e. the northern Kherson region.
During the nights of 19-20 July and 20-21 July, Ukrainian artillery damaged the Antonovka Bridge, a 1.3 kilometre long structure spanning the Dnieper River. This same bridge had been crossed on the first day of the war by a column of Russian armoured vehicles, which then took the town of Kherson. Eleven impacts were recorded, several of which perforated the roadway, making it dangerous for trucks and armoured vehicles. The Nova Kakhovka bridge, 100 kilometres further east, was also damaged. These two bridges are the only two supply routes for the Russian occupiers. In addition, the only bridge secured by the Russians over the Ingoulets River, near the town of Darivka, was also hit by Ukrainian artillery on 23 July, 40 kilometres away and with pinpoint accuracy. The eight impacts perforating the road were almost perfectly equidistant, demonstrating a capability that the Russians lack.
"It is a way of exerting psychological pressure on the enemy. And it is also what is called, in military jargon, the preparation of the battlefield," notes Ukrainian military analyst Mikhail Samous. Ukraine is firing on the Antonovka Bridge to cut off the main artery linking Crimea to the right bank of the Dnieper, where up to 30,000 Russian soldiers are divided into two groups. One on the Kherson side and the other on the Kryvy Rih side. The Kherson group is already in a tactical encirclement situation.
"The Russian propaganda does not mention this, of course, because it would be to forget the ambition to take Odessa", notes the expert. He adds: "The Ukrainian general staff anticipates that Russian troops will flee across the Nova Kakhovka bridge and we will see a very interesting process when thousands of Russian soldiers will try to cross it at the same time. Because the Russian general staff has not given up the idea of taking Odessa or Kryvy Rih, so the troops will wait until the last moment to escape under Ukrainian artillery fire. This will not happen like in Kiev, where the Russian troops retreated relatively easily to the Belarusian border. Here, I don't see any possible escape for them, they will be annihilated.
Emmanuel Grynszpan