Ukraine - Russia Conflict
- Thread starter randomradio
- Start date
That map is considerable more progressed that Livemap. Hope it's correct.
Belarus has become ready to hospitalize 20,000 people with mobility given by Russia.
Ukraine War, 29 September 2022
Once again, just a short one, focusing on south-eastern-most Kharkiv Oblast.
Ukraine War, 29 September 2022
Once again, just a short one, focusing on south-eastern-most Kharkiv Oblast.(For this, I am offering my apology for all the readers that are serving with the ZSU on other frontlines: I’m not ignoring you, just too busy to cross-check all the related reports, and don’t want to provide misinformation.)
Today I’ll keep zip-lip regarding the ZSU’s bridgehead in the Kupyansk area, too. Sufficient to say the hodgepodge of battered and freshly-mobilised Russian units there is ‘in deep trouble’, and that as far away from Kupyansk as to, say, ‘area between Arapivka, Volodymyrivka and Kuzemivka’.
Instead, let me go over to the situation further south.
The ZSU has entered Pidlyman on the Oskil, and there’s bitter fighting almost everywhere between the centre of that village and Shyikivka, in eastern Borova.
East of Borova, Ukrainians seem to be ‘somewhere between Kopanky, Pershotravneve, and Proletarske, though not in control of either, and I’m not sure if they got there from the west, south, or south-east. Mind: it is possible that this manoeuvre was, ‘actually’, a ‘reaction’ to some of developments further south.
The reason I’m not sure is that Olhivka seems to still be contested, or even a target of a Russian counterattack that’s meanwhile going on for something like 24 hours — while RUMINT has it that Ukrainians are already in Makiivka, seven kilometres further east.
This would make sense, not only because it would mean that most of what used to be the column visible on this video from 15 September is no more (easy conclusion, based on all the photos and videos of VSRF’s tanks and other mechanised vehicles captured in the Pisky-Radkivski area, the last few days): foremost because counterattacking ‘down the road’ from, say, Pershotravneve and Proletarske on Olhivka, would be something even the VSRF’s reservists could do, and it would threaten to cut off Ukrainian troops in Makiivka — If they’re already there.
As reported earlier, Shandryholove, Ridkodub, Katerynivka, Nove, Zelena Dolyna are all liberated, and Ukrainians have liberated Kolodyazi, too, but then the Russians counterattacked from around Neveske and Terny in that direction (i.e. from north-east). The place appears to have been contested as of early this morning. That said, the Russians then reported the presence of strong Ukrainian forces less than 3,000 metres north of Zarichne — and sorry, but: 3,000 metres north of Zarichne is Kolodyazi.
Right now, can’t say if one or another source simply missed something (say: didn’t know about a possible counterattack from north-east) or whatever, but, if not, then that’s likely to mean their counterattack fell apart.
A lil’ bit of analysis for the end: in the social media everybody seems to be waiting for the Russians in Lyman to give up: to surrender or just run away. Others can’t wait for Ukrainians to get bogged down in the mud — or to run out of steam or out of supplies…
Originally, I expected Lyman to be liberated this week: meanwhile, I doubt this is going to happen. Putin’s ‘no step back’ seems to be taken seriously enough by all the VSRF’s commanders. From what I ‘read between the lines’ of all the available reports the Russians have rushed whatever reinforces they could scratch together to the Svatove area, and from there to Kopanky, Proletarske and Olhivka. Yes, the troops in question are all reservists without any kind of training, and poorly equipped, but there are so many of them, I expect them to keep Ukrainians busy for 2–3 days — at least.
Perhaps even longer. Foremost: it’s not like all of them ‘can’t fight’ or would be running ‘human wave’ attacks (of which Ukrainians have seen 2–3, the last few days), but it takes time to shot them away (or to take them prisoners), and there’s always the Russian artillery around, too.
Bottom line: unless that situation — on the northern flank of Ukrainian advance — is ‘solved’, I do not expect anything to happen in Lyman, i.e. in regards of Dibrova, Torske and Zarichne. The reason is the steady flow of Russian reinforcements from Alchevsk and Luhansk via Severodonetsk to Kremina, then Zarichne. Right now, Ukrainians do not have the artillery necessary to interdict this.
….and that in turn means that the Russians are going to continue ‘pumping’ reinforcements into Lyman — and that regardless what kind of massive losses are they already suffering while trying to move these along the Lymanska Vulica: that’s the road connecting these three places, and it is already heavily mined and under both Ukrainian artillery fire and direct fire.
Ah yes, and a ‘disclaimer’ for the end: mind that on a map all of this looks ‘very close’, and ‘flat’, and ‘lots of space to manoeuvre’, and ‘easy’. Check a topographic map of this area. The terrain is ‘broken’, there are lots of minor lakes, marshes, reservoirs, and minor rivers in between of lots of villages. Theoretically, yes: ‘ideal for defence’. If the Russians wouldn’t be in a state of chaos, this would be very hard for the ZSU to liberate.