Ukraine - Russia Conflict

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A pretty nice pincer going on. Potentially vulnerable to artillery on the south-east bank of the Dnipro, though I suppose that has been largely taken care of. The aim seems to be to reach the Nova Kakhovka dam to interdict all Russian passage there.
 
I don't think it is. Deep down, Putin knows he has pushed his luck with the annexation of Ukraine. I wouldn't be surprised if Putin is gone before Ukraine reaches that point though. The mobilised addition is bound to slow things down and maybe reverse them for a period. There are going to be lots of Russian bodies, and leadership pundits were furious that they sent people with families and jobs, precisely because it knows that the missing will be missed, and that will affect Putin's ability to continue as Reich Fuhrer President.





Issue for Russia (Duh) is there is no second line of defense once you break the first it's all open field. First line isn't that strong to begin with anymore from shelling and HiMARS.

I think the US messed up by not giving Ukraine all those AAV's that are in storage. It could have given Ukraine forces so much flexibility in their counter offensives.
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In my last post I wrote that anyone should discard Russia at their own peril and that end may just be the beginning. Guess what, I just found a article which states that:

The War Has Just Begun​



....

On the Precipice​

I am fully cognizant that my views will be spun as “coping” after Ukraine’s gains in Kharkov oblast, but time will tell out. Ukraine is on its last legs - they drained everything usable out of NATO stockpiles to build up a first tier force over the summer, and that force has been mauled and degraded beyond repair just as Russia’s force generation is set to massively increase. Winter will bring not only the eclipse of the Ukrainian army, the destruction of vital infrastructure, and the loss of new territory and population centers, but also a severe economic crisis in Europe. In the end, the United States will be left to rule over a deindustrialized and degraded Europe, and a rump Ukrainian trashcanistan sequestered west of the Dnieper.
For now, though, we are in the interregnum as the last flames of Ukraine’s fighting power flickers out. Then there will be an operational pause, and then a Russian winter offensive. There will be several weeks where nothing happens, and then everything will happen.
During that operational pause, you may be tempted to ask - “is it done, Yuri?”

No, Comrade Premiere. It has only begun.


Full article can be read here: The War Has Just Begun | ZeroHedge
 
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Not the first time Zero Hedge publishes Russian propaganda.

But anyone serious knows that there's nothing to fear from Russia, since everything in this country is highly dysfunctional.


You see, in Russia, everyone lies, everyone steals, everyone cheats. It's how the system is built. If you don't lie, you are punished. If you don't steal, you are deprived. If you don't cheat, you fail. There's no such things as honesty or competence in Russia, there is only corruption and abuse. Why do you think Russians are famous for their fatalism? And their drunkenness? Those are just ways to cope with the rampant dysfunction of their society. If you don't cope, you kill yourself.
 
My god David Petraeus probably went too far. No point in threatening Russia. Anyways i love the sweet smell of a weakening nuclear deterrence. The fact is Putin has backed himself into the corner. What he said is not what would have been said 7 months ago. Putin has *censored*ed his country.
 
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You see, in Russia, everyone lies, everyone steals, everyone cheats. It's how the system is built. If you don't lie, you are punished. If you don't steal, you are deprived. If you don't cheat, you fail. There's no such things as honesty or competence in Russia, there is only corruption and abuse. Why do you think Russians are famous for their fatalism? And their drunkenness? Those are just ways to cope with the rampant dysfunction of their society. If you don't cope, you kill yourself.
This is why Russia can't understand why it's losing, because anyone who tells them why is guilty of treason.


Issue for Russia (Duh) is there is no second line of defense once you break the first it's all open field. First line isn't that strong to begin with anymore from shelling and HiMARS.



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Guerre en Ukraine en direct :

Retired American general David Petraeus is back in the news. Speaking on ABC's "This Week," the former CIA boss opined that Vladimir Putin is in a bind: "The reality of the battlefield he faces is irreversible. No amount of haphazard mobilization - that's the only way to describe it - no amount of annexation, no amount of nuclear threats, however veiled, can get him out of this situation."

The former general predicted that the U.S., along with NATO allies, would "eliminate [Russian] conventional forces [that they will] be able to see and identify on the battlefield in Ukraine and also in Crimea, as well as any ships in the Black Sea" if Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to use nuclear weapons in his war against neighboring Ukraine.

Petraeus recalled recent remarks by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan that U.S. officials have warned Moscow of "catastrophic consequences" if the Kremlin deploys nuclear weapons. The radiation from a nuclear attack in Ukraine would likely reach neighboring NATO countries, making it an attack on the alliance.
 
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