Lol, with Donbas gone, there's no way that lease would have survived. Get real.
That again is Russia's fault for removing two of their biggest supporters from the Ukrainian parliament by annexing one and beginning a separatist war in the other.
Fact, SM-3s can only shoot down missiles targeting Europe, the cannot destroy anything in Russia, let alone nuke it.
Are you seriously equating this:
with this:
In what world does a KKV equal a 2.42MT nuclear warhead?
It's impossible to say how things will pan out. Serbia is expected to join the EU in 2025. And this is not guaranteed.
Economics is more important to rational democracies, because the electorate keeps them rational. Only dictatorships strive for irrationality (except where religious mobs are involved).
Anyway it has nothing to do with countries themselves, it's about how the security environment is shaped that will allow sleeper cells to thrive and operate. It will be like trying to blame Russia for school shootings in the US. It takes only a few motivated individuals to screw up your day. What the Russians will leverage is the faultlines within Europe that will help create a market for violence. Guns and explosives will be supplied by proxies, like the mafia, human traffickers etc, all funded via a hawala type system.
Far less chance of that happening once Serbia is intelligence-sharing inside the EU. Plus, security agencies are absolutely wired for anything that smells Russian right now. But at least you're inadvertently admitting to the type of people your friends are.
While it's unlikely to happen, we will just switch over to other suppliers. But I gotta say, only nonsensical Western propaganda believes Russia and China are friends.
They're more friends than you think they are. Don't forget Russia backed the CCP's revolution in the first place, they're the reason it's a dictatorship today. Without the USSR, the CCP would not even exist and China would be a democracy together with Taiwan as an integral part of it.
That's just the Russians shooting themselves in the foot. In case problems arise in China, then that will cripple Russia as well.
Russia can sell its oil elsewhere, assuming sanctions are gone by that point.
Apart from India being a more important long term market for Russia, given China will transition to electricity faster than anyone else, India is more important for Russia to ensure its own security. So Russia will choose India over China.
How do you imagine that? China shares a border with them and has a stronger economy and military than India. From their point of view it is like comparing India to Pakistan, only you are Pakistan in this case.
Russia's advantage over China is only temporary, maybe until the end of the decade. Post that, China will not only become less dependent on Russia, but will also start staking their claim in Siberia.
Competing on nuclear warhead count is pointless once you reach a certain point. The Cold War was stupid in that respect, both sides had at least 5 times more warheads than they really needed for a deterrent. 3,000 is enough, Russia can always deploy more. NATO and Russian missiles are only about 30-40% loaded right now. They can go from ~1,700 to ~4,000 warheads with a snap of the fingers.
