Ukraine - Russia Conflict

La Russie se dit prête à augmenter ses livraisons de gaz à l'Europe

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

Russia says it is ready to increase gas supplies to Europe


Russia's deputy prime minister has opened the door to a return of supplies to Poland and Germany via the Yamal pipeline. But this is unlikely to happen: Europe has found other sources... including Russian liquefied natural gas.

One step forward, one step back... Russia is currently sending contradictory signals. After threatening to cut its oil production in protest against the European embargo on crude and the price cap, Moscow says it is ready to resume gas deliveries via the Yamal pipeline. "The European market remains relevant because the gas shortage persists and we have the opportunity to resume supplies," the deputy prime minister in charge of energy, Alexander Novak, told the official news agency Tass.

He said the Yamal pipeline, which links Russia to Poland and Germany, had been stopped for "political reasons". Shortly after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, as supplies to Europe began to dwindle, Gazprom stopped its deliveries via Yamal. Then the Russian company demanded that Poland pay in roubles. Warsaw refused and the Polish government terminated its contract with Gazprom.

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Investment in LNG

At the end of August, the pipeline was shut down for three days of maintenance, but has not been reactivated since. The flows were then reversed to allow Poland to be supplied from Germany.

These statements could indicate that the various measures taken against Russia and its hydrocarbon production are beginning to dry up its economy. So far, Moscow has been able to rely on the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market to keep its exports high. The more flexible transport of this energy by ship allows the country to diversify its customers. European imports of Russian LNG are said to have increased by 40% this year.

Russia has developed an ambitious programme to increase its liquefaction capacity. By 2035, it hopes to be able to export 80 to 140 million tonnes per year, up from 35 million tonnes today. Novatek still hopes to restart the Arctic LNG 2 project, in which TotalEnergies has invested but which has been at a standstill since the Western sanctions, by the end of 2023. A large part of Russian production could therefore now be liquefied and then shipped to international markets.

Stocks are rising in Europe

The future of gas pipelines is more uncertain. To resume deliveries to Poland, Moscow will first have to ease its own sanctions against Warsaw. And on the Polish side, there is nothing to suggest that they are ready to start buying from Russia again, even though they have largely diversified their sources this year.

In Europe, the pressure has eased in recent weeks as temperatures have risen. Stocks have not really been dented despite the first cold snap in December. They have even started to be filled again and now stand at an average of 83%. Germany, which had fallen to a filling rate of 87%, has risen to 88% in the last few days (compared to 77% at the same time last year), while Poland has a record rate of 96%, putting it in a strong position.
 
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Dmitry Medvedev has published a list of his predictions for 2023.

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Even a person with Undiagnosed/Untreated paranoia/Schizophrenia isn't going to believe these predictions.
LOL! Who is medvdev trying to Fool?
OTOH Medvedev Political Capital/Image can take a massive hit ...
 
You wouldn't need nukes to attack those. And no, the launchers in Poland can only carry air defence missiles. And even after withdrawing from the INF, the US has no plans to introduce nuclear warheads to MRBMs or IRBMs, plus Russia could counter that by placing similar nukes in Kaliningrad anyway, so it would be a fools game with no net gain. And the idea of NATO attacking Russian territory even with conventional weapons under normal conditions is ridiculous, they're not even doing it now, when they have the world's greatest excuse for doing it.

The Russian ground forces are not like the SU's. And tac nukes have the ability to get into missile designs capable of getting through Russian IADS, since few numbers are required compared to conventional munitions.

No it didn't, Jihadism dates back centuries (before the CIA was even founded) and Iran conducted the first Islamic suicide bombing in Lebanon.

Modern day Islamic fundamentalism dates back to the CIA's war against the SU in Afghanistan. Look up all the major terrorist organisations and when they started, that will give you the clue necessary to piece the puzzle.

Cast iron hard fact. Note the supporters column:


Nobody was even interested in Communism until after the Soviet uprising in Russia, let alone being a Communist dictatorship.

Mao's China was sh!t. Today's China was created by the West after 1974.

Why doesn't India transition faster? I can't see why China should be the first. And India is going the nuclear route instead of gas for electricity generation. And I imagine India needs central heating less than China, assuming it even needs it at all.

India's transition is happening really fast, extremely fast for a $2500 economy. But China has a headstart, it's simply the nature of things. What China will do by 2030, we may need up to 2035-40. So, Russia will find India to be more important than China. Another problem is India lacks oil reserves entirely, our best is 1 million bpd, whereas China's local reserves give them 5 million a day.

India is going the hydrogen route.

India needs central cooling. Our local temps go up to 47deg C. Even Bangalore is considered cool at 37deg C, even if I personally disagree. While we do not need gas, we need electricity. Our summer electricity bills are much higher than winter bills.

Assumptions, meanwhile the Chinese economy is already there and consuming, whereas you are a 'what if' and sometimes what ifs never materialise.

China's oil consumption has likely already peaked and will more than likely go into decline. China's future need is gas, not oil.

Conventionally China is already more than a match, don't know how you can't see that, just as NATO is. But the threat of nuclear destruction still prevents direct engagement, let alone an invasion which would almost certainly lead to the use of nukes, after all, it's what WMDs are there to stop.

China today is conventionally stronger than Russia. But against Russia in 10 years, China won't be its conventional match. NATO minus US will not be able to match the Russians either.

All three have different priorities. The Russians are ground forces heavy, whereas China wants to develop its navy and air force to challenge the US instead. The EU needs to raise a proper army as well. And in the meantime, there will be quite a bit of technological mismatch. The EU's next gen tech is only gonna arrive after 2040 versus 2025 for the Russians. So the Russians will have a significant tech lead in ground forces versus both the EU and China in 10 years.

But I'm not referring to the military, it's not as relevant, economics is more important. For at least this decade, China needs Russia more than Russia needs China. And India needs Russia for a decade longer. So, in the long run, Russia will give India greater importance, because Russia will need India once China no longer finds Russia economically useful. Plus, in the long run, both India and Russia need each other to counter China, the same as it was during the Cold War.
 
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Skewed sex ratio? Nope. This isn't China or India.

As for aging population, sure, but the demographic outlook is worse for Russia than for Europe because, surprise surprise, it turns out Europe attracts people a lot more than Russia does.

Skewed sex ratio is bad both ways. And the EU's looks slightly better on paper because of greater migration of men than women. But the EU is bringing in low quality men who are unlikely to attract richer European women for the long term. The end result is more violence.

There's a lot of money that can be taken from wealthy westerners. Just a clampdown on the thousands of tax evasion schemes would bring an immediate boost. Good thing that the UK has left so that there's no one in the EU anymore to veto things in the name of Bahamas, Gibraltar, and the Cayman Islands anymore! Still need to strongarm Ireland and the Netherlands, of course, but that will be easier.

On the other hand, Russian oligarch wealth? Why, it's already been taken away! But no by Russia. By the West.

Russian oligarch wealth is yet to be drilled out. Stealing Russian wealth in possession of the West will weaken the West in the long term due to the distrust it will create in the international market.

Taking back laundered money is a one-time thing.

And why would that particularly benefit Russia?
I see US, EU, China of course, Japan too... I know there are also big names in Turkey and Saudi Arabia, but as for Russia? What do they have?

Fun fact: the famous Kerch Bridge? It was built by a Dutch company. Not a Russian one. Russia didn't have a construction company that could handle a project of this size.

Resources. Not their construction tech, but the stuff underground. India needs Russia's vast natural resources, and not just oil and gas.


You can see that while Russia sits on top, India isn't even in the top 10.

Yes of course, it's Boris Johnson who told the Russian tank crews to pack their dress uniform as they rolled towards Kyiv on February 24...

Can we at least agree that Russia went into Ukraine thinking there won't be a war?

We know for sure it's the case because the Russians went to Kiev without air defences and infantry.

There is a fundamental disconnect if you think such a treaty could exist. Western view is that, in accordance to the UN charter, each sovereign country is free to choose its own defensive alliances (article 51, "inherent right of individual or collective self-defence"). So it's up to Poland, Ukraine, and so on if they want to become buffer states by treaty. Do you believe they would?

They don't have a choice. Do you think Nepal and Bhutan have a choice in the matter? Both countries exist because both India and China allow them to exist. If one of us decide to change the status quo, you can bet there will be war.

Plus, at some point you'll have to open your eyes and realize that it was never about buffer states. It was always, purely and solely, about rebuilding the Russian empire. What NATO expansion means is that any country that joins NATO cannot be reclaimed for the greater glory of the Russian empire, this is the only reason why Russia whines about NATO expansion.

This Russian empire was impossible to rebuild until now. The West has given Russia the excuse necessary to rebuild its empire now. All the West had to do was wait for Putin to grow old and feeble. But, no, the military genius Zelensky decided it was time to formalise Ukraine's with to join NATO and invade the Donbas.

Okay, you don't get it.

If the Pachtun Front For Liberation of Russian Latvia suddenly appears, nobody is going to be "oh sure, the historic Pachtun population of Latvia has always allied with the Russians, they've always been there, yes yes yes". Nobody is going to care whether they can be traced to Russia or not. It'll just be the proof that we're facing a foreign-backed terrorist plot, and not anything that could potentially be considered a legitimate revendication of the people who live there because they were born there.

Now the question is if you will solve the issue locally or start WW3.

If Russia takes over Ukraine, they'll mostly be in Russia. And they'll blame Russia. Those in Europe will probably just support those in Russia, providing them with funds and equipment to commit terror attacks in Russia. Remember that the last time Russia had annexed Ukraine, it took them decades to eradicate all the Ukrainian resistance cells. Same thing will happen again.

Iran funnels automatic rifles into the US via Mexico. I don't see the US going to war over it.

Besides, Neo-Nazis are like 10% of the Russian population, compared to less than 2% for Ukraine. It'll be easy for Ukrainian neo-Nazis to find help from Russian neo-Nazis; if you remember that the entire Azov Battalion thing was originally created by Russian neo-Nazis, not Ukrainian ones.

Oh, yeah, I'm not disputing the fact that there won't be more terrorism in Russia either. They are already living with it. The Americans will make sure of it.

No. They had no reason to do that before Russia started their proxy war against Russia using Russian secret service operatives and a select number of Ukrainian criminals that the Russian troops had busted out of prison.

The Ukrainians tried it, the pseudo pro-Russian regime in Ukraine at the time stopped it. This happened in 2013.

But now they definitely are, if they can reclaim Crimea. This is what is called a self-fulfilling prophecy. Russia thought they needed to attack Ukraine because Ukraine may become hostile to them, to the surprise of the Russian intelligentsia, it is the Russian attack that is turning Ukraine hostile to them.

If anyone says that Ukraine would have started trouble against Russia if Russia hadn't attacked first, then they are complete stupid morons absolutely out of touch with reality. Ukraine couldn't afford to take that risk, and we see the reason why.

But now? Now Ukraine has got nothing more to lose. So Russia shoot itself in the foot. They gave Ukraine a good reason to reclaim Sevastopol, and removed their reason not to do it. Congrats to genius 17-dimensional chess player Putin the Great.

You should read up on what happened before the Russian invasion. Zelensky was preparing to attack Donbas.

The entire time the Minsk agreements were simply a way for Ukraine to buy time to militarise and then invade the Donbas.

“We had achieved everything we wanted,” he said of the peace deal. “Our goal was to, first, stop the threat, or at least to delay the war – to secure eight years to restore economic growth and create powerful armed forces.”

“The 2014 Minsk agreement was an attempt to give Ukraine time,” Merkel told the weekly Die Zeit. “It also used this time to become stronger, as you can see today.”

This war was planned, but not in the Kremlin.

The Baltics are safe and peaceful because they're integrated in the EU and NATO. If Russia tries to "actively deal" with them, Russia will cease to exist as a nation-state.

The Caucasus sucks and is in a state of constant warfare because it's integrated in Russian power structure like the CSTO and the Eurasian Economic Union. Such is life in Russian satellites. And you people don't get why Eastern European countries want to leave Russia's orbit forever...

Political power plays have nothing to do with the life of people.

It doesn't matter how democratic people are, people are always attracted to where there are more resources. Lot of Indians leave their safe democracy to go work in the political sh!thole called the Middle East just because there's more money there. Lot of rich people prefer to migrate to the UAE, where they have no real rights, all because there is no income tax there.

You need to stop using freedom as the reason for people wanting to migrate to the West, it's all about money. You speak as though migrants have voting rights in France.
 
For the sillies who think Russia will be their ally against China:

China exporting weapons for the war effort. Not happening for the first time.

For the sillies who think Russia values and respects India and would not commit their shenanigans on Indian soil:

The Russians do this everywhere. The latest American one was Gen Suleimani and the Saudis did that to Kashoghi.

For the sillies who think Central Asia is still aligned with Russia:

Why would anyone think that? But CAR is stuck. Whatever hissy fits they wanna throw, the fact is Russian presence is very strong in the region, even military presence.

For the sillies who think Russia's industrial capacity is up to the task:

Lol. Now propaganda has reached a point where Russia can't even manufacture artillery shells. Those same shells we have imported worked very well during wartime though.
 
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I'm not surprised that you'd be so happy and cheerful after seeing an old woman get brutalized by a mob. This is the kind of attitude that inevitably goes with being a Putin supporter.

Ah, the holier than thou attitude. UAF killing civilians in Donbas is okay. And a dumb Russian supporting that should be protected. That guy probably did that woman a favour before someone hit her. People need to learn how to read the room, especially when life can be at risk.

The average Russian supports the war because the Ukrainians are killing Russian civilians with artillery.
 
Nine for Mortal Men, doomed to die, One for the Dark Lord on his dark throne In the Land of Mordor where the Shadows lie. One Ring to rule them all, One Ring to find them, One Ring to bring them all and in the darkness bind them. In the Land of Mordor where the Shadows lie.

You should read up on what happened before the Russian invasion. Zelensky was preparing to attack Donbas.
This war was planned, but not in the Kremlin.
Russian invasion did not start in 2022. It's the Kremlin that decided to start a proxy war in Ukraine and anschluss Crimea with a phony referendum.

Fact is, Russia had planned on reintegrating its lost shards of empire from the start, in the 1990s, but only succeeded (somewhat) in Belarus. Everywhere else kept on drifting away, a movement that has now accelerated.

Can we at least agree that Russia went into Ukraine thinking there won't be a war?

We know for sure it's the case because the Russians went to Kiev without air defences and infantry.
Nope. They thought it'd be a one-sided war where the Ukrainians would let themselves be shot or captured without retaliation. If they thought there wouldn't be a war, they wouldn't have started with a massive volley of missile strikes on Ukrainian military facilities. Unfortunately for them, they used largely outdated intelligence so about 60% of their missiles hit irrelevant targets -- emptied base, decommissioned aircraft, etc. That Ukrainian air defenses had largely resisted and were still active has crippled Russian air support.

As for the lack of infantry, they were simply too slow for the operation the Russians had planned which was a cavalry sprint with airborne reinforcements. But they couldn't hold Hostomel and the rest is history.

Why would anyone think that? But CAR is stuck. Whatever hissy fits they wanna throw, the fact is Russian presence is very strong in the region, even military presence.
Russian military presence in the region is dwindling rapidly, and especially its military presence. Central Asia is stuck between three regional powers, Russia, China, and Turkey. Russia used to be first place, now it's in third place. China is in first place and will make sure Russia does not come back.
 
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Russian oligarch wealth is yet to be drilled out. Stealing Russian wealth in possession of the West will weaken the West in the long term due to the distrust it will create in the international market.

Taking back laundered money is a one-time thing.
OK! what are other options in Foreseeable future? EU and China. EU is onboard with US, That left china.
LOL! Do you think China is more trustworthy Than EU & US?
Who is going to trust China?
Resources. Not their construction tech, but the stuff underground. India needs Russia's vast natural resources, and not just oil and gas.


You can see that while Russia sits on top, India isn't even in the top 10.
Yup! Agree on this.
Can we at least agree that Russia went into Ukraine thinking there won't be a war?

We know for sure it's the case because the Russians went to Kiev without air defences and infantry.
YUP! agree here too.
 
Ah, the holier than thou attitude. UAF killing civilians in Donbas is okay. And a dumb Russian supporting that should be protected. That guy probably did that woman a favour before someone hit her. People need to learn how to read the room, especially when life can be at risk.

The average Russian supports the war because the Ukrainians are killing Russian civilians with artillery.
RFF killing civilians in Donbass and all over Ukraine is okay because there's civilian casualties from the fire exchage between FSB "separatists" and Ukrainian forces?
Russia started shelling Kherson with incendiary shells after they lost control of it. This has zero military justification, it is entirely caused by Russia's unquenchable lust for war crimes and genocide. But officially, as far as Russia is concered, those people are Russian citizens, they've written it in their Constitution and all. So Russia is killing Russian citizens with artillery. In occupied territories, Russia is also killing Russian citizens with large-scale torture and summary execution; again because of Russia's infinite thirst for war crimes and genocide.

So cut the crocodile tears about the unfortunate people of the Donbass. They're the victims of Russia, like all the rest, not those of Ukraine. Only a moron would think these cities would be shelled if Russia hadn't created with its own military and a few local criminals some phony local regimes with zero legitimacy that have taken control of the area against the wishes of the local people.
 
For 2023, only 1 is realistic. Quite an entertaining list though.
It's a delusional list . Even 1 doesn't seem realistic.
Militarisation of Iran was bound to happen.
What Do you mean?
KSA, UAE, Israel and Egypt isn't going to like that.
Also, Militarising Iran will eradicate last leverage Russia have on Israel.
Syria, Will be an Intreseting playground.
 
La Russie se dit prête à augmenter ses livraisons de gaz à l'Europe

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

Russia says it is ready to increase gas supplies to Europe


Russia's deputy prime minister has opened the door to a return of supplies to Poland and Germany via the Yamal pipeline. But this is unlikely to happen: Europe has found other sources... including Russian liquefied natural gas.

One step forward, one step back... Russia is currently sending contradictory signals. After threatening to cut its oil production in protest against the European embargo on crude and the price cap, Moscow says it is ready to resume gas deliveries via the Yamal pipeline. "The European market remains relevant because the gas shortage persists and we have the opportunity to resume supplies," the deputy prime minister in charge of energy, Alexander Novak, told the official news agency Tass.

He said the Yamal pipeline, which links Russia to Poland and Germany, had been stopped for "political reasons". Shortly after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, as supplies to Europe began to dwindle, Gazprom stopped its deliveries via Yamal. Then the Russian company demanded that Poland pay in roubles. Warsaw refused and the Polish government terminated its contract with Gazprom.

View attachment 25776

Investment in LNG

At the end of August, the pipeline was shut down for three days of maintenance, but has not been reactivated since. The flows were then reversed to allow Poland to be supplied from Germany.

These statements could indicate that the various measures taken against Russia and its hydrocarbon production are beginning to dry up its economy. So far, Moscow has been able to rely on the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market to keep its exports high. The more flexible transport of this energy by ship allows the country to diversify its customers. European imports of Russian LNG are said to have increased by 40% this year.

Russia has developed an ambitious programme to increase its liquefaction capacity. By 2035, it hopes to be able to export 80 to 140 million tonnes per year, up from 35 million tonnes today. Novatek still hopes to restart the Arctic LNG 2 project, in which TotalEnergies has invested but which has been at a standstill since the Western sanctions, by the end of 2023. A large part of Russian production could therefore now be liquefied and then shipped to international markets.

Stocks are rising in Europe

The future of gas pipelines is more uncertain. To resume deliveries to Poland, Moscow will first have to ease its own sanctions against Warsaw. And on the Polish side, there is nothing to suggest that they are ready to start buying from Russia again, even though they have largely diversified their sources this year.

In Europe, the pressure has eased in recent weeks as temperatures have risen. Stocks have not really been dented despite the first cold snap in December. They have even started to be filled again and now stand at an average of 83%. Germany, which had fallen to a filling rate of 87%, has risen to 88% in the last few days (compared to 77% at the same time last year), while Poland has a record rate of 96%, putting it in a strong position.

I like how reality has been twisted here.

It's the EU countries seeking exemptions from sanctions in order to continue importing Russian energy.

"They announced that they would not take oil from Russia from Jan. 1. And now we have received requests from Polish consumers: give us 3 million tonnes next year, and 360,000 tonnes for December, and Germany has already submitted a request for the first quarter," Transneft head Nikolay Tokarev said on Tuesday.
 
The Russian ground forces are not like the SU's. And tac nukes have the ability to get into missile designs capable of getting through Russian IADS, since few numbers are required compared to conventional munitions.
There are no plans to put nukes in such missile though, and if there were they could do it from the Baltics, or from Finland right now without Ukraine anyway. None of these theories hold.

Modern day Islamic fundamentalism dates back to the CIA's war against the SU in Afghanistan. Look up all the major terrorist organisations and when they started, that will give you the clue necessary to piece the puzzle.
Islamic fundamentalism started centuries ago and never ended. Iran was funding suicide bombers against Israel before the Afghan War started. And Russia caused the problems in Afghanistan by overthrowing the king by proxy in 1973. India and the USSR both recognised the new illegitimate government just 2 days after the coup! So you need to start accepting some responsibility yourselves for how Afghanistan turned out, it was a nice, civilised country until 1973, you and Russia ruined it.



Mao's China was sh!t. Today's China was created by the West after 1974.
Go to China and say that. LOL, that's a good one.:ROFLMAO: Russia and China split over Cambodia, China didn't like the USSR's growing influence.
India's transition is happening really fast, extremely fast for a $2500 economy. But China has a headstart, it's simply the nature of things. What China will do by 2030, we may need up to 2035-40. So, Russia will find India to be more important than China. Another problem is India lacks oil reserves entirely, our best is 1 million bpd, whereas China's local reserves give them 5 million a day.
Always an excuse. You were useless, that's why China shot ahead. Just imagine where you'd be if you'd allied with NATO from the start. Ask yourself that question honestly.
India is going the hydrogen route.
Don't do it, go EV, hydrogen is ridiculously inefficient over the full cycle by comparison.

1672154577642.png
India needs central cooling. Our local temps go up to 47deg C. Even Bangalore is considered cool at 37deg C, even if I personally disagree. While we do not need gas, we need electricity. Our summer electricity bills are much higher than winter bills.
Figured, so China will use more gas.
China's oil consumption has likely already peaked and will more than likely go into decline. China's future need is gas, not oil.
Lots of people in China don't have a car yet.
China today is conventionally stronger than Russia. But against Russia in 10 years, China won't be its conventional match. NATO minus US will not be able to match the Russians either.
Russia will get weaker due to the war, war never makes any of its participants stronger, it impoverishes and weakens.
All three have different priorities. The Russians are ground forces heavy, whereas China wants to develop its navy and air force to challenge the US instead. The EU needs to raise a proper army as well. And in the meantime, there will be quite a bit of technological mismatch. The EU's next gen tech is only gonna arrive after 2040 versus 2025 for the Russians. So the Russians will have a significant tech lead in ground forces versus both the EU and China in 10 years.
:ROFLMAO: The T-14 is cancelled. And current Russian tanks don't lead anything. And airpower always beat army, every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
But I'm not referring to the military, it's not as relevant, economics is more important. For at least this decade, China needs Russia more than Russia needs China. And India needs Russia for a decade longer. So, in the long run, Russia will give India greater importance, because Russia will need India once China no longer finds Russia economically useful. Plus, in the long run, both India and Russia need each other to counter China, the same as it was during the Cold War.
That's simply not the case. China has 1.3bn people and a border with Russia, and a large economy. Saying Russia needs India more, is like Britain saying that Turkey is more important than the EU going forward. No offence to Turkey of course, but facts are facts.
 
India and the USSR both recognised the new illegitimate government just 2 days after the coup! So you need to start accepting some responsibility yourselves for how Afghanistan turned out, it was a nice, civilised country until 1973,
After 1971 war, India had no choice but to support USSR antics, Whether it was legal/moral or not.
you and Russia ruined it.
Nope. India just voted. That's it. India didn't ruined anything in Afghanistan.
 
After 1971 war, India had no choice but to support USSR antics, Whether it was legal/moral or not.
Well, I think that's probably what Nixon and Kissinger thought in 1971 too. It's interesting though that Indians intervention to prevent a genocide in East Pakistan in 1971 but often castigate NATO for doing the same in Serbia in 1999.
Nope. India just voted. That's it. India didn't ruined anything in Afghanistan.
To have accepted it so fast afterwards, like the Soviets, India must have been in on it. You have to admit it smells, and you would accuse us if it was the other way round.