An interesting extract of an analysis:
Note: This blog post was done entirely from open source intelligence The 21st century has been full of conflict. From Kosovo, to the Horn of Africa, to Afghanistan, to Iraq, to Syria, and now Ukraine the battlefield keeps changing and evolving. Many of you have been following the events in Ukraine
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So, the total vehicles in a Prototypical BTG = 33x BMPs, 10x T-72s, 4x Shturm-S ATGM Carrier, 3x BAT-2s and 2x IMR-2s, 6 x 152 mm 2S19 Msta, 6x BM-21 122mm MLRS, 6x Pantsir-S1, and 7x MT-LB ACRV. There would be approximately 600 soldiers in the BTG.
Order of Battle
The order of battle tries to depict the hierarchical organization, command structure, strength, disposition of personnel, and disposition of equipment of military units participating in a military operation. Corporate types would recognize this as an org chart. For the purpose of this blog post, I’m only going to focus on the Order of Battle/potential disposition of the Russian military equipment involved in the invasion of Ukraine.
The Institute for the Study of War is a Washington, DC based think-tank that has tracked wars for the past two decades. On January 25, 2022, ISW assessed that there were at least 66 BTGs postured around Ukraine.
I’m going to make the assumption that ISW didn’t get their picture exactly right and that Russia moved a few more units into the region to participate in the invasion from January 26 to February 23. If Russia invaded the Ukraine with 75x BTGs, there would be approximately:
- 750x T-72/80/90 Tanks
- 2,475x BMPs/BTRs (Armored Personnel Carriers),
- 300x Shturm-S ATGM Carriers
- 225x BAT-2s and 150x IMR-2s (Engineer Vehicles)
- 450 x 152 mm 2S19 Msta
- 450x BM-21 122mm MLRS
- 450x Pantsir-S1
- 525x MT-LB ACRV
in the invasion force. There would also be about 45,000 troops in the BTG formations. The rest of the Russian invasion force (reported to be over 100,000+) is in the support forces.
Crowd Sourcing Battle Damage Assessment
The invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, 2022. Each day the conflict continues, both Russian and Ukraine forces lose vehicles from combat. These vehicles were destroyed, damaged, abandoned, or captured in battle. Battle Damage Assessment, or BDA, is “the estimate of damage composed of physical and functional damage assessment, as well as target system assessment, resulting from the application of lethal or nonlethal military force.” In the old days, the Battalion or Brigade Intelligence Officer had to collect reports from helicopter pilots, Air Force pilots, forward observers, and ground forces who engaged the enemy. Based on these reports, the Intelligence Officer would make an assessment of how badly the enemy had been damaged from the actions of friendly forces.
Stijn Mitzer, along with Joost Oliemans, Kemal Janovsky, Dan Janovsky, and Jakub Janovsky, have taken this idea into the 21st Century. The five people are attempting to crowd source battle damage assessments in real-time from both the Russian and Ukraine armed forces during the invasion of Ukraine on
The Oryx Website. The team finds photos of destroyed, abandoned, and captured vehicles and then tries to count them based on the vehicle type. They also categories them based on the vehicle being destroyed, abandoned, or captured. The team does its best to make sure that they are not counting the same vehicle twice and are updating it daily. Check it our yourself — the link to their regularly updated article is
here.
As of March 7, 2022 at 3:00 PM EST
the Oryx Website assesses that the Russian forces have lost (the numbers had already changed before I finished writing the post):
- 140 Tanks (T-72s, 80s, and 90s — 42 destroyed, 2 damaged, 26 abandoned, and 69 captured)
- 181 Armored Personnel Carriers (BMPs or BTRs — 65 destroyed, 35 abandoned, and 81 captured)
- 2 Shtrum-S ATGM Carriers (1 destroyed and 1 abandoned)
- 36 Engineering Vehicles (including 1x BAT-2, 1x IMR-2)
- 63 Field Artillery pieces (including 9x 2S19 Mstas and 16x 122mm BM-21 Grads)
- 23 SAM Systems (including 4x Pantsir-S1s)
- 63 MT-LB (17 destroyed, 12 abandoned, and 34 captured)
Advanced BDA:
Just counting damaged, destroyed, and captured vehicles in Basic BDA. Taking the raw numbers and then assessing the impact on the invasion force is Advanced BDA. Advanced BDA helps military leaders understand the context and make better decisions.
The military uses three categories to measure the impact on enemy units: suppressed, neutralized, or destroyed. As you would expect, each of these terms has a military definition.
Suppress is a tactical mission task that results in temporary degradation of the performance of a force or weapons system below the level needed to accomplish its mission. It is the lowest level and typically equates to 3% of a friendly or enemy unit’s equipment being destroyed, damaged, abandoned, or captured.
Neutralize is a tactical mission task that results in rendering enemy personnel or materiel incapable of interfering with a particular operation. It is in the middle and usually equates to 10% of a friendly or enemy unit’s equipment being destroyed, damaged, abandoned, or captured.
Destroy is a tactical mission task that physically renders an enemy force combat-ineffective until it is reconstituted. It is the highest level and usually equals to 30% of a friendly or enemy unit’s equipment being destroyed, damaged, abandoned, or captured.
Remember the order of battle of the invasion force? I will use the OoB numbers as our denominator, as I try to figure out if the Russians are suppressed (3%), neutralized (10%), or destroyed (30%) as part of the Advanced BDA process. This helps to provide context for the losses reported on the web. Based on the crowd-sourced losses on the
Oryx website on March 7, 2022:
- 140 Losses out of an estimated 750x T-72/80/90s Tanks — 18.6% Losses (Neutralized)
- Average of 12x tanks damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day of the conflict
- 181 Losses out of an estimated 2,475x BMPs/BTRs (Armored Personnel Carriers) — 7.3% Losses (Suppressed)
- Average of 15x BMPs/BTRs damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day of the conflict
- 2 Losses out of an estimated 300x Shturm-S ATGM Carriers — .6% Losses (No impact)
- 26 Losses out of an estimated 225x BAT-2s and 150x IMR-2s (Engineer Vehicles) — 6.9% Losses (Suppressed)
- 63 Losses out of an estimated 450x 152 mm 2S19 Msta and 450x BM-21 122mm MLRS (Field Artillery) — 7% Losses (Suppressed)
- 23 Losses out of an estimated 450x Pantsir-S1 (SAMs) — 5% Losses (Suppressed)
- 63 MT-LB out of an estimated 525x MT-LB ACRV (Command and Control) — 12% Losses (Neutralized)
- Average of 5x MT-LBs damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day of the conflict
So what, right? Neither the crowd sourced BDA or the OoB is perfect. But it gives me, and hopefully you, a better understanding that the Russians’ tank and command and control (MT-LB) forces have suffered pretty significant losses. The rest of the BTGs have also taken a hit, especially the artillery. But, the Russian’s SAMs seem to be relatively intact, which means that the Ukrainian Air Force will continue to have a tough time attacking the Russian troops from the air.
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