They'd be using airpower already if they could, but they have no decent SEAD capability an use commercial SatNav units for navigation. You're kidding yourself.
Ukraine - Russia Conflict
- Thread starter randomradio
- Start date
The Russians have decided to not use their airpower to date is the point, Western SAMs or not.
With that said, there are ways to use airpower without having to deal with SAMs, and that's via standoff munitions. It's unclear what sort of response the Russians will give once the Ukr offensive begins though.
The Russian army's strategy is fine, but their tactical fvck-ups have been monumental, like that tank trip down a mine field in Vuhledar. Their conscript army is behaving like one, but they are compensating for their tactical goof-ups with firepower.
I don't know if they have any new SEAD/DEAD capabilities minus the stuff we already know about, ie, ARMs and BM/CMs, but we can't speculate, they have to demonstrate it.
Saturation will almost always work. Their bomber fleet can do some serious damage. The West has barely supplied enough SAMs as it is. The other would be to saturate such sites with standoff winged PGMs once enough numbers become available. These PGMs can even make the Su-24 useful again. So bombers can saturate the Patriot sites with CMs, and Flankers can saturate SRSAMs with ARMs and winged bombs. The only question is are the Russians interested in risking their air force.
Even after seeing Russian performance in Syria, Western analysts seem to have come to a weird conclusion that the Russians aren't able to use their air force, while discounting the fact that the Russians are deliberately not using their air force. They find it difficult to wrap around their heads that the Russians have organised to form units that do not have to rely on close air support. After Kargil War, the IA went in the same direction due to the lack of active support from the IAF, due to lack of technology. In 2019, after pounding PA positions, an IA artillery officer bragged that the infantry don't need air support anymore.
Ukraine - Russia Conflict
www.strategicfront.org
Corrected: It is not an invasion of Russia nor a war but a small 3-day Ukrainian special operation...
"Mi" with you: helicopter deliveries are planned to increase by a third by 2030
How manufacturers will cope with the task
How manufacturers will cope with the task
The authorities want to increase the supply of Russian helicopters by 2030 by a third of the volume approved a year ago, the press service of the Ministry of Industry and Trade said. This is more than 1 thousand helicopters. (...)
(...)
Several Izvestia sources in helicopter-operating companies said they were unaware of any plans to increase the programme of deliveries of these machines. However, three interlocutors questioned whether the new volume could be produced given the difficulties with components.
- The problem is not in the sales of helicopters, but in the fact that there is nothing to equip them with," said a top manager of a major helicopter operator.
He reminds us that the Ansats, for example, are powered by Pratt & Whitney engines. Mi-8/Mi-17 and their further modifications were equipped with TV3-117 engines (and since 2001 - with BK-2500, serial production of which was launched at Motor Sich in Ukraine). The VK-2500 is also being produced in Russia at the facilities of the St Petersburg-based ODK-Klimov (part of the United Engine Corporation of Rostekh), but production volumes are still insufficient. It is also unknown how much of this volume UEC produces on its own on a full cycle basis, the interlocutor specified.
Denis Manturov, Deputy Prime Minister and Head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade also spoke about the shortage of the VK-2500 engines at the Council of Federation meeting in April. According to him, the current demand for this engine exceeds 500 units, but the production is designed for a maximum of 300 per year. This engine is also being installed on combat helicopters.
The Russian Helicopters holding (a subsidiary of Rostec), the only producer of this type of equipment in the Russian Federation, also acknowledges the problems. At the XIII Helicopter Forum in the autumn of 2022, Igor Panshin, Director of Sales for Civil Equipment, said that certification of the main lineup is not expected to be completed until 2024. This was about the Mi-171A3 (certification of its passenger version is pending), the Ka-32A11M with a Russian engine, and the Ansat-M, which will be replaced with domestic engines, fuel tanks, avionics, and the feathering. (...)
Russia can't beat Ukraine, and as soon as it sets a foot in the Baltics NATO is going to kick their f*cking head.
Wartime production means they will increase the production rate of the engines as well.
If the separatist movement is Russian it is foreign aggression and will be treated as such. Also, a separatist movement like the 2014-2022 Donbass affair will be crushed in a heartbeat.
Yeah, I don't know what RandomRadio ate this morning, but it made him delusional
.No one is going to care about separatists in Tajikistan or Kyrgystan, but in Latvia, Lithuania or Estonia? There are foreign soldiers, part of the Enhanced Forward Presence initiative there specifically to deal with threats from Russia, including Russia-backed separatists. This initiative was implemented following the annexation of Crimea in 2014, and in response to Russian grey tactics like plausible deniability or paramilitaries.
NATO Article 4 was invoked by the Baltic nations following the 2014 Crimea invasion specifically to counteract the same happening to them. That invocation lead to the development and deployment of the eFP battlegroups. Article 4 is generally a precursor to Article 5, which can be invoked for any foreign aggression deemed necessary ranging from crippling cyber attacks to state-sponsored terrorism to full-scale warfare.
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One unmanned surface boat was destroyed by Russian Navy . But the ship seems to be very near at the end of the video . Wonder how far those sub surface unmanned vehicle that was in social media few days back ll reach . Or if the numbers are more .
Wagner Chief Warns of Russian Revolution over Ukraine War Failures
Wagner chief warned of another Russian revolution akin to that of 1917 unless the strategy of the war in Ukraine is drastically altered
www.breitbart.com
Yeah, I don't know what RandomRadio ate this morning, but it made him delusional
No one is going to care about separatists in Tajikistan or Kyrgystan, but in Latvia, Lithuania or Estonia? There are foreign soldiers, part of the Enhanced Forward Presence initiative there specifically to deal with threats from Russia, including Russia-backed separatists. This initiative was implemented following the annexation of Crimea in 2014, and in response to Russian grey tactics like plausible deniability or paramilitaries.
NATO Article 4 was invoked by the Baltic nations following the 2014 Crimea invasion specifically to counteract the same happening to them. That invocation lead to the development and deployment of the eFP battlegroups. Article 4 is generally a precursor to Article 5, which can be invoked for any foreign aggression deemed necessary ranging from crippling cyber attacks to state-sponsored terrorism to full-scale warfare.
It's not gonna be that obvious. It's not gonna be a bus full of people crossing the Russian border into the Baltics singing the Soviet Anthem. It's gonna start with sleeper cells of small teams of individuals being activated across Europe, linked to non-state actors in the ME and Africa. The Russians are not gonna dirty their hands doing this.
Imagine the entry of a few hundred individuals every year of the same caliber as the 2015 Paris theatre attackers. India's been dealing with this situation for the last many decades, so there's nothing new in what I'm saying here.
Here's an interesting article:
Number of militants in J&K at all-time low, near about 50: Sources
The number of terrorists in Jammu and Kashmir is at an all-time low and terrorism is declining in the area, a top Jammu and Kashmir cop told India Today.
From thousands to hundreds to just a few dozen. To us, that's very low. But to you, that's 2 or 3 potential Paris attackers.
How many civilian and security forces are you planning on losing dealing with them? And if you do identify a weak state to deal with, are you gonna occupy it and then suffer through a foreign-funded insurgency?
But it's okay, these guys are Islamists, easy to find them in a crowd and you will find a way to deal with them eventually, after many years, just like India did. However, there's a new threat rearing its head, neo-Nazis, Breivik's ilk, who hate what's happening in the West, that left-leaning Marxist culture Europe is growing into, the very thing the neo-Nazis have always hated.
Neo-Nazis, extremists committed 21,964 crimes in Germany last year: Report
Far-right biggest threat to our democracy, German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser says - Anadolu Ajansı
www.aa.com.tr
Yeah, so there are a few thousand Breivikis who are currently indisposed dealing with Russia. But once the war is over, presumably in Russia's favour, and once they are asked to go home, but unwilling to go home, how are they gonna react to that? Who are they gonna train their guns against next?
Now someone has to deal with the neo-Nazis. That's a lot of angry, betrayed battle-hardened Breiviks in my eyes.
So that's merely the first step. The first step has nothing to do with Russia, it's just Europe's chickens coming home to roost. So there's nothing NATO can do about it when there's no foreign power directly attributable to these attacks. There's no NATO charter dealing with Europe's many Breiviks.
It's the second step that will see a rise in separatist activities, which will also start on the embers or Islamic or neo-Nazi terrorism in the Baltics or wherever else. It could very well start off as a bar fight if it has to, 'cause, you know, there will be plenty of underlying tension between Russian-speakers in Europe and native Europeans. Could be as simple as a bunch of Latvians or neo-Nazis beating up a Russian-speaker who has lived in the same town for 40 years. Could perhaps lead to an orange revolution in the Baltics.
It's all 'cause people are people. A young 15-year-old Russian kid bullied in school for being Russian in Latvia today may get you a 22-year old Russki-Breivik in 2030. Welcome to Revolution 101. Helped in no small part by Chini-Russki propaganda and funding, and the resurgence of the right wing in Europe, while in the middle of an arms race with both Russia and China.
Expect these things to play out over a decade or more, especially when the US is distracted in the Pacific.
Okay, alternative. None of the above happens. Russia is defeated, Europe is at peace, even the Nazis are happy and living in peace with Muslims, Jews and homosexuals. But Russia is quietly militarising and modernising. By 2030 or so, they will start an insurgency in the Baltics, NATO doesn't like it and invoke Article 4. Local forces start dealing with an insurgency while Europe talks with Russia. Talks fail and Article 5 is invoked. And oh yeah, all this is happening while China and the US are at war. Yep, very realistic alternative; inovking Article 5 and starting a new world war 'cause there's a separatist movement in the Baltics.
Or how about a more realistic assessment of the alternative scenario? Russia begins a separatist movement openly in the Baltics, and Europe quietly fights it just like India did against Pakistan and avoids a nuclear confrontation in the process? Yeah, that seems more reasonable. A few terrorist attacks in Europe, and insurgencies in the Baltics and Balkans while avoiding an all-out war, yep, seems far more realistic.
Yeah, I had brought this up very early during the war, that nothing good will happen if the Russians don't finish it quickly.
You either de-militarise really quickly, or it's gonna turn into a slow never-ending grind just like an insurgency. It's a problem for everybody, not just the two belligerents.