'Cause tracing it back to the Kremlin and proving it are two different things.
Wagner is now an "enemy" to Russia. So whatever actions they take has plausible deniability, in case it's a 4D move by the Kremlin. Or, of course, there's been an actual falling out. All of this is just guesswork, in the end claims will need actual proof.
But the reality is Wagner has now become a serious threat to Europe. It was created to be a CI force, not a conventional army. And if that's what they focus on, then that's gonna become a serious problem. It's impossible for me to believe that they will all move to Belarus and then sit quietly.
It's possible that they will start something in Western Ukraine first. Pull in dissatisfied Russians with the lure of money and revenge, train them and start an insurgency West of Kiev; destroy NATO supply convoys, kill policemen etc. This could ultimately give them the same size and heft as the Taliban or ISIS over the years. Of course, they could pull in men from other parts of the world too, Europe has made plenty of enemies. Some would come in for the money, some criminals, some terrorists. None of this has to happen through the Kremlin either, funding can come in from anywhere, particularly MENA.
