Ukraine war is going to escalate. We're near that point as Ukraine is about to launch its offensive Russian lines are likely going to collapse just like Kharkiv and eventually Kherson only this time Ukraine is better trained and equipped and Russian troops currently holding the line are not. This will be thee battle where Russia is going to need to make a decision as Ukraine will likely get near pre Feb, 2022 lines.
With the exception of the forces being raised for the offensive, Ukraine's forces are extremely poorly trained and extremely poorly equipped. Most of the soldiers at the front today have received barely a few days of training. Most of the brigade-sized units are merely battalions or less. Most of the NATO-trained officers are already dead, very few survive. Yeah, they have infantry gear, but little to no heavy weapons. The new stike force being raised is subject to debate, we need to see their actual performance before commenting on it.
Otoh, Russia's extremely well-equipped and most of their forces are ex-soldiers who have had training and seen service before. Plus a huge chunk of them are not only at full strength, but have been ready to go on the offensive since the last 3 months, not counting the Wagner PMC, which is being reconstituted before the launch of Ukr's offensive. Basically, Wagner PMC alone is as strong, if not stronger than the new forces being raised by Ukr, whereas the Russians could have twice that many in reserve awaiting their chance.
NATO aint collapsing thanks to Russia and nobody is really going to care about another Serb Kosovo conflict that is not thee possible conflict to keep an eye on.
It's part of France and Germany's goal to create a "common defence" plan for Europe outside the ambits of NATO. Although they claim it won't rival NATO, it will still serve to weaken American hold over Europe's defence. If Trump gets reelected, it could result in such problems creeping up again.
While Russia is Europe's biggest threat, they are not stupid enough to get suckered into a war with them over the Baltics. Meaning, any war with Russia will actually have to be serious enough to threaten all of the EU. And the cost of that is both the US and Europe having to relinquish their hold over the world to China and India.
Azerbaijan is Turkeys puppet and Turkey as always wanted a Turk-passage leading to Caspien Sea and Turkmenistan and the other Stans that are Turk-centric.
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Sure, Turkey and Azerbaijan don't like the Armenians, but attacking Armenia means attacking Russia. CSTO is like NATO, and Russia is obligated to defend the countries within CSTO. The situation is uneasy there, but still within control. Neither Azerbaijan nor Armenia want to go to war.
Otoh, Georgia could become a flashpoint, similar to Ukraine, with their potential for joining the EU and ultimately NATO.