Wagner Group Mutiny Against Russia | Mercenaries moving across Lipetsk towards Moscow - Live Updates

[randomradio]

Actually they can because the figures are heavily censored in Russia. The deficit is what counts in this matter, it measures what the government is spending vs its revenue from all sources.

Russia swings to $29 bln first-quarter budget deficit

Russia's federal budget balance sank to a deficit of 2.4 trillion roubles ($29 billion) in the first quarter of the year as Moscow spent heavily and energy revenues fell, the finance ministry said on Friday.

www.reuters.com

They can't fake trade, 'cause another country keeps records too, and insurance companies also keep records of shipments.

They can only fake their domestic market.

Also, that video which claims Russia's earnings have dipped by 49%, it's incomplete. He should have used figures from 2021 as well. 'Cause what he doesn't mention is Russia's earnings increased drastically due to oil prices increasing to $120 post war. And that 49% dip is from a very high peak. $120 to $90 is a 50% dip after all. Had he shown data from 2021, then his video would have sounded very different.

 

[BMD]

They can't fake trade, 'cause another country keeps records too, and insurance companies also keep records of shipments.

The trade balance, which is the largest part of the current account is warped by sanctions since the EU/US have deliberately stopped exports to Russia. The deficit shows how much money the government is making and how much it is spending. It can be faked though.

They can only fake their domestic market.

They can also fake revenue and spending.

Also, that video which claims Russia's earnings have dipped by 49%, it's incomplete. He should have used figures from 2021 as well. 'Cause what he doesn't mention is Russia's earnings increased drastically due to oil prices increasing to $120 post war. And that 49% dip is from a very high peak. $120 to $90 is a 50% dip after all. Had he shown data from 2021, then his video would have sounded very different.

120 to 90 is a 50% dip? Did you attend the same school as @Anonymous, where maths was taught by Guru Noknackers? A 50% dip from 120 is 60.

 

[randomradio]

@randomradio - The only place Wagner can get weapons and fuel from for any attack is from Russia. The same goes for any separatist movements. Ergo, an attack by them is an attack by the Kremlin.

So if Latvian insurgents blow up a German troop bus with a Javelin and the Germans find M4s on the insurgents, that's a Russian attack?

Since there's a war going on, there will be plenty of weapons available in the black market in Europe.

Anyway, the Kremlin seems to be creating the grounds for a narrative that will help push the European govts to feed the average European a "Russia is not to blame for terrorist attacks" Kool-Aid. "Prigozhin is doing this without Kremlin support" will become the main story if the Europeans don't want war with Russia.

So NATO can either go to war with Russia or suffer through the attacks while negotiating a settlement via back channels which will see the lifting of sanctions.

Or, really, you can go to war with Russia. I'm sure this time Gen Milley will say NATO will take Moscow in 7 days.

 

[BMD]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1673598589187047424

 

[randomradio]

The trade balance, which is the largest part of the current account is warped by sanctions since the EU/US have deliberately stopped exports to Russia. The deficit shows how much money the government is making and how much it is spending. It can be faked though.

They can also fake revenue and spending.

Sure. But given what we already know, the difference won't be much, or largely irrelevant.

Energy revenue was $383B, that's 30T rubles. And their non-oil economy is bigger.

120 to 90 is a 50% dip? Did you attend the same school as @Anonymous, where maths was taught by Guru Noknackers? A 50% dip from 120 is 60.

The baseline is 60 bucks, genius, not zero. The peak was articifical and temporary. The average is 90 bucks. And then a discount. The prices simply stabilised.

Anyway, lower Russian energy revenues isn't good news for Europe, it means the West isn't doing well economically. So I don't know why you are so happy about that.

Look at how badly it was underestimated initially:

They thought the Russians will only make $165B in exports, not the $383B they actually did.

Western estimates have been that ridiculous.

 

[A Person]

So if Latvian insurgents blow up a German troop bus with a Javelin and the Germans find M4s on the insurgents, that's a Russian attack?

Yes.

There is absolutely zero reason for a homegrown Latvian insurgency. If one appears, it's one that's been fostered by a hostile foreign power, and people are not going to suspect Lesotho.

Let's put it this way: suddenly, there's an insurgency in the Kutch district of Gujarat. Are you gonna think it's not because of Pakistan?

Anyway, the Kremlin seems to be creating the grounds for a narrative that will help push the European govts to feed the average European a "Russia is not to blame for terrorist attacks" Kool-Aid. "Prigozhin is doing this without Kremlin support" will become the main story if the Europeans don't want war with Russia.

Nobody is going to believe this. More likely, it'll be "Prigozhin is forced to do this by the Kremlin in exchange for amnesty"...

But also, keep in mind that European governments have said that Wagner actions in Africa are on behalf of Moscow, despite Moscow denying and denying and denying constantly.

 

[A Person]

The second is that, despite all the "patriotic" hype about the military, with theme parks and cathedrals and childhood indoctrination, the military is actually one of the most despised group in Russia. At least the common troops. Soldiers are seen as imbeciles, and those who enlist are seen as idiots.

Getting back to that:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1673426897684819969

Testimony from a former Russian officer, explaining the kind of people who enlist; and so the kind of image the rest of society has of them. If you're a recruit, you're a failure, or a backward hick who doesn't know how to read, write, speak proper Russian, or use soap.

The whole Twitter thread is worth reading, by the way.

 

[randomradio]

Yes.

There is absolutely zero reason for a homegrown Latvian insurgency. If one appears, it's one that's been fostered by a hostile foreign power, and people are not going to suspect Lesotho.

Crossborder insurgencies may start off across the border, but it's infectious. A whole generation can be lost to this sentiment.

Let's put it this way: suddenly, there's an insurgency in the Kutch district of Gujarat. Are you gonna think it's not because of Pakistan?

The world's gonna want proof.

Yeah, given India's border, it's a poor example, but if there are multiple players in the region, the burden of proof will only increase.

Nobody is going to believe this. More likely, it'll be "Prigozhin is forced to do this by the Kremlin in exchange for amnesty"...

But also, keep in mind that European governments have said that Wagner actions in Africa are on behalf of Moscow, despite Moscow denying and denying and denying constantly.

You, as NATO, can blame and attack Russia. But the rest of the world will see you as the aggressor 'cause you are making up your own stories. Right now, the rest of the world already sees the West as a financial aggressor.

Same thing with Africa. Europe can blame Russia as much as it wants, but Wagner is in Africa because some elements support their presence just as some other elements want European presence.

Once an insurgency begins in Europe, there's gonna be a lot less sympathy and a lot more schadenfreude. Also, most countries will take a neutral stance.

The biggest problem between the West and Russia is there is no one rich and powerful enough to act as a mediator. This war began because France and Germany went into denial and dug a hole for themselves. If say India was a mediator between Ukraine and Russia, we would have easily identified and adapted to the positions of both sides. Any idiot could have seen Russia treating Ukraine as a red line. And both the Ukrainians and Germans openly admitted that the talks were a sham since the beginning.

The US/UK prepared Ukraine for war, France/Germany unwittingly rolled the red carpet for the Russians to come into Ukraine. So nobody already believes your side of the story anyway.

 

[randomradio]

Getting back to that:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1673426897684819969

Testimony from a former Russian officer, explaining the kind of people who enlist; and so the kind of image the rest of society has of them. If you're a recruit, you're a failure, or a backward hick who doesn't know how to read, write, speak proper Russian, or use soap.

The whole Twitter thread is worth reading, by the way.

I've read some of his threads. It's stuff like this that comes out of the woodwork and erodes one of democracy's advantages over communists and dictators whenever they go to war.

Kremlin is cleaning everything up because of this, right up to the top.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1663967994781769730

This will unfortunately help Xi too.

Conscript-based militaries aren't good in the first place.

 

[A Person]

Any idiot could have seen Russia treating Ukraine as a red line.

Nah.

Prigozhin's March on Moscow (corrected)

Ten lessons from a mutiny

snyder.substack.com

3. Prigozhin told the truth about the war. This has to be treated as a kind of self-serving accident: Prigozhin is a flamboyant and skilled liar and propagandist. But his pose in the days before his march on Moscow made the truth helpful to him. He wanted to occupy this position in Russian public opinion: the man who fought loyally for Russia and won Russia's only meaningful victory in 2023, in the teeth of the incompetence of the regime and the senselessness of the war itself.​

​

I'm not sure enough attention has been paid to what Prigozhin said about Putin's motives for war: that it had nothing to do with NATO enlargement or Ukrainian aggression, and was simply a matter of wishing to dominate Ukraine, replace its regime with a Moscow-friendly politician (Viktor Medvedchuk), and then seize its resources and to satisfy the Russian elite. Given the way the Russian political system actually works, that has the ring of plausibility. Putin's various rationales are dramatically inconsistent with the way the Russian political system actually works.​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672177488535977984

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672186669762596865

 

[A Person]

Kremlin is cleaning everything up because of this, right up to the top.

No.

Kremlin claims to be cleaning everything up. But they won't. Because the only way to get rid of corruption in Russia would be to get rid of the entire Russian elite, all the siloviki and oligarchs and other courtiers of Putin's; starting with Putin himself. That's not going to happen.

The entire system is built on lies and corruption. This is because Russia is not a real country; it's a mafia.

 

[A Person]

You can see from the level of introspection and self-questioning that there really are going to be thorough reforms in Russia.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1673637839295111171

https://twitter.com/x/status/1673646166154649602

"This aborted coup shows that we surely do deserve some more medals, and also it's all the West's fault anyway. Okay, now let's go back to our hard work of embezzling funds and sending people to a pointless death..."

 

[BMD]

Sure. But given what we already know, the difference won't be much, or largely irrelevant.

Energy revenue was $383B, that's 30T rubles. And their non-oil economy is bigger.

Their GDP is down - FACT. Their deficit is increased massively, their debt is rising. Those are the net figures, sub-figures are irrelevant. Although of course some of that GDP is in useless rupees, which they can't use freely on what they want.

The baseline is 60 bucks, genius, not zero. The peak was articifical and temporary. The average is 90 bucks. And then a discount. The prices simply stabilised.

The prices are at $70 now and the average from Feb-Jul last year was only $110 (only peaked briefly at 120ish).

Oil Price Charts | Oilprice.com

Oilprices from around the world.

oilprice.com

Anyway, lower Russian energy revenues isn't good news for Europe, it means the West isn't doing well economically. So I don't know why you are so happy about that.

We're not buying it from Russia for the most part.

Look at how badly it was underestimated initially:
View attachment 28628


They thought the Russians will only make $165B in exports, not the $383B they actually did.

Western estimates have been that ridiculous.

They aren't making $383bn in 2023. Russia did not budget for what it's getting now and it's having to pay subsidies to oil and gas companies.

Russia's oil and gas budget revenue drops sharply in April

Russia's federal budget revenues from oil and gas, the lifeblood of its economy, fell 64% in April from the year-earlier period and declined by 5.9% from March, the finance ministry said on Thursday, as a result of higher subsidies to oil refineries.

www.reuters.com

MOSCOW, May 4 (Reuters) - Russia's federal budget revenues from oil and gas, the lifeblood of its economy, fell 64% in April from the year-earlier period and declined by 5.9% from March, the finance ministry said on Thursday, as a result of higher subsidies to oil refineries.

So the headline figures only tell a half story!

 

[randomradio]

Nah.

Prigozhin's March on Moscow (corrected)

Ten lessons from a mutiny

snyder.substack.com

3. Prigozhin told the truth about the war. This has to be treated as a kind of self-serving accident: Prigozhin is a flamboyant and skilled liar and propagandist. But his pose in the days before his march on Moscow made the truth helpful to him. He wanted to occupy this position in Russian public opinion: the man who fought loyally for Russia and won Russia's only meaningful victory in 2023, in the teeth of the incompetence of the regime and the senselessness of the war itself.​

​

I'm not sure enough attention has been paid to what Prigozhin said about Putin's motives for war: that it had nothing to do with NATO enlargement or Ukrainian aggression, and was simply a matter of wishing to dominate Ukraine, replace its regime with a Moscow-friendly politician (Viktor Medvedchuk), and then seize its resources and to satisfy the Russian elite. Given the way the Russian political system actually works, that has the ring of plausibility. Putin's various rationales are dramatically inconsistent with the way the Russian political system actually works.​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672177488535977984

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672186669762596865

It's just a Putin-bashing article meant for the Western audience.

The Minsk agreements were fair to Russia and Ukraine, both. Donbas would have been part of Ukraine, but autonomous, and Ukraine could join the EU, but not NATO.

 

[randomradio]

No.

Kremlin claims to be cleaning everything up. But they won't. Because the only way to get rid of corruption in Russia would be to get rid of the entire Russian elite, all the siloviki and oligarchs and other courtiers of Putin's; starting with Putin himself. That's not going to happen.

The entire system is built on lies and corruption. This is because Russia is not a real country; it's a mafia.

People in top positions can stay in power, but with lesser powers and more scrutiny. An anti-corruption drive may only involve bringing in greater efficiencies, it's not going to be a witch-hunt. The answers are not in the extremes.

You can see from the level of introspection and self-questioning that there really are going to be thorough reforms in Russia.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1673637839295111171

https://twitter.com/x/status/1673646166154649602

"This aborted coup shows that we surely do deserve some more medals, and also it's all the West's fault anyway. Okay, now let's go back to our hard work of embezzling funds and sending people to a pointless death..."

They can't show the coup was successful in bringing about change. Even parties in democracies don't allow such a thing to happen.

 

[randomradio]

Their GDP is down - FACT. Their deficit is increased massively, their debt is rising. Those are the net figures, sub-figures are irrelevant. Although of course some of that GDP is in useless rupees, which they can't use freely on what they want.

View attachment 28636

The prices are at $70 now and the average from Feb-Jul last year was only $110 (only peaked briefly at 120ish).

Oil Price Charts | Oilprice.com

Oilprices from around the world.

oilprice.com

We're not buying it from Russia for the most part.

They aren't making $383bn in 2023. Russia did not budget for what it's getting now and it's having to pay subsidies to oil and gas companies.

Russia's oil and gas budget revenue drops sharply in April

Russia's federal budget revenues from oil and gas, the lifeblood of its economy, fell 64% in April from the year-earlier period and declined by 5.9% from March, the finance ministry said on Thursday, as a result of higher subsidies to oil refineries.

www.reuters.com

So the headline figures only tell a half story!

It's too early to tell how much Russia will earn this year. Yeah, it will be lesser than last year, but it could still be above $250B.

 

[BMD]

It's too early to tell how much Russia will earn this year. Yeah, it will be lesser than last year, but it could still be above $250B.

With or without subsidies included? The real money is determined by how much of the revenue actually comes to the Russian Federal budget and that is down 64%. Why the hell do they even need subsidies if they're doing so well? Something does not really make sense there #Financial Censorship.

 

[randomradio]

With or without subsidies included? The real money is determined by how much of the revenue actually comes to the Russian Federal budget and that is down 64%. Why the hell do they even need subsidies if they're doing so well? Something does not really make sense there #Financial Censorship.

Earnings come after the subsidies. And then they spend on subsidies.

In any case, out of the 30T they earned, I've only taken half that as what went into govt spending, so all other expenses should have been taken into account in the other half already.

Anyway the subsidies are only to make domestic energy prices cheaper for the population. The price of gasoline is 51 rubles or 60 cents a liter.

 

[A Person]

Amusing consequence of the aborted coup:

Wagner mutiny exposes risks for China's deep Russian ties

As news broke on Saturday that mercenary Wagner troops were careering towards Moscow in a short-lived rebellion, several businessmen from southern China began frantically calling factories to halt shipments of goods destined for Russia.

www.reuters.com

 

[BMD]

Earnings come after the subsidies. And then they spend on subsidies.

So essentially the earnings include the money the government has paid them? This is why actual federal revenue from oil & gas has gone down 64%.

In any case, out of the 30T they earned, I've only taken half that as what went into govt spending, so all other expenses should have been taken into account in the other half already.

The net figure is down 64% as per my link.

Anyway the subsidies are only to make domestic energy prices cheaper for the population. The price of gasoline is 51 rubles or 60 cents a liter.

Because the people are too poor to afford the real price, so the Russian government pays the oil companies money to pay back to the government. Joke economy.