Ukraine - Russia Conflict
- Thread starter randomradio
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Part-6, Lessons from the first stage.
- have a very well defined and clear aim. RA forces seemed to unsure of their objectives and how those objectives aligned with the overall aim.
- Do not underestimate your enemy when you know that they are very well equipped and you are up against not a nation but a combination of nations.
- Never trust your money with anyone else. The looters and thugs of history like USA+UK will anyday confiscate it as they did in the case of Russia and India still has 440 tons of its gold in UK which was pledged in 1990/91.
- Never go to battle with the heart of a gentleman. Bring out the beast in you and show no mercy. No one can fight effectively with a hand and a leg tied as was the case in the first stage with RA. UA showed this aspect when they butchered their own people in and around Kiev. Indian Army had its own such experience in Jaffna against LTTE and we know the disaster it was.
- If you have some population which is friendly to you, do not go for an all out attack instead use special forces and covert means to weaken the enemy as stated by Chanakya. The most recent example is French Resistance against Nazies. Such teams can create a logistics nightmare for enemy forces and that too deep inside their own territory with a very low cost in terms of manpower.
- All you need to do is to blow up any culvert or a bridge ahead and behind the train and after that destroy all the supplies or just derail the train by blowing up the track at multiple location as the train passes over it. A job which could have been easily done with sabotage teams working with friendly local population like French resistance.
- Even as I write this post, Trains loaded with tanks, APCs and other military hardware are rolling into UKR but for some unknown reason RA has decided not to destroy them the moment they enter UKR. it could be that Russia is planning WW3 and wants Europe to run out of weapons before they attack. Hitting these trains at this stage will stop these supplies and prevent depletion of war reserves of Europe.
- Most countries which have supplied these weapons were part of WARSAW pact earlier and rest of Europe wont mind seeing them decimated as long as the saxons are saved at the cost of Slavs and Hungarians and the Gauls.
- RA seems to be playing out the game to let rats run amok before moving in to kill them all. The NATO itself has concluded that Russia is hiding its main assets and has brought on battle only very limited part of its inventory and capabilities. Given the likelyhood of a direct confrontation with NATO, this seems to serve well the overall game plan of Russia. With MBTs sent to UKR, what is their with Poland to defend itself in short term?
- As per NATO estimates, Russia has deployed only 24% of its armed forces, 12% of its arty and heavy weapons, 10% of its armour and less than 6% of its aviation assets in the battle so far.
- Germany and the countries which operate Eurofighter have over 50% of their fighter fleet down, The American Poodle has just about 256 operational tanks in its army and 50% of French airforce Rafale are in storage.
- RA has lost Su-25s/24s mostly which are over 35 year old designs and were to be replaced by new fighters. As I stated earlier, RA is not losing money in this battle but earning from it due to high fuel prices sold at discounts. The real losers are the people of Europe who are facing unprecedented inflation and high prices for very basic needs like food and fuel. Nancy Pelosi and USA+UK combine are the real winners in it. More weapon sales for USA and UK becoming a bigger economy than Germany and France. With streets of Europe on fire with the combined strength of neo nazies and muslims.
Russia it seems has made a few bad calls.
1. Trying a shock and awe style campaign when their army was not ready for it. Those VDV guys will be missed.
2. Not accounting for the impact of real time intel being provided to Ukraine. Ukraine is able to shift resources effectively to point that it has to some extent blunted Russia's overwhelming numbers
3. Ignoring squad level Discipline - since the times of the Soviets, discipline was the bane of the Reds. Looks like not much has improved on that front.
Behind the scenes, the West is running a massive supply op to ensure Ukraine's equipment losses are irrelevant. Russia has captured so many ATGMs that it can actually run the war for a few weeks just with the captured ATGM stocks.
A lot of noise is being made about the equipment losses without going into the specifics. Russia is still largely using older tanks (of the 1000+ tanks lost, less than 25% were T-80s or T-90s). West celebrates quality over quantity and Russians are making them expend their ATGMs at a fantastic rate. Supplies are not endless, neither are the blank cheques.
As we open for the Russian end game, I'd daresay we will see a jump in performance once a general war is declared (expect it around May 7) just as West runs out of free ATGMs and other fun toys to hand over to Ukraine for free.
Meanwhile, after the phase 1 disaster (yup phase 1 performance by Russia was less than impressive) Russia has still achieved some of its objectives, Russian speaking areas are Red, land route to Crimea is done.
The ones in progress are
1. Making Ukraine a land locked country - Taking Odessa completes this task
2. Sending Ukraine back to the 80s. Ukraine's infra is gone. Post this war Ukraine will not be in a position to compete with Russia in the arms market or be a serious player in steel/agriculture markets. A poor country is forced to choose between roads, factories, hospitals and rebuilding its armies. West's generosity is not endless.
Russia will walk away with JUST enough to call it a win internally while the West will be able to call it a win for helping (a much smaller) Ukraine survive.
There is no WW3 here. Never was.
The only winner in this mayhem has been the US and to some extent Europe. Russian equipment reputation is in the gutter, Russian economy has taken a massive hit and Russia wont be messing around with them for a few years once Ukraine is settled. Once the madness settles, Russia can go back to being the poor yokel and sell its hydrocarbons for hard cash and western technology - on western terms (or atleast that is the plan)
That was the west's sole objective. Ukraine ended up being a sacrificial pawn.
We will most likely see an oriental remake within the next 10 years if Xi Huzoor manages to survive this term.
1. Trying a shock and awe style campaign when their army was not ready for it. Those VDV guys will be missed.
2. Not accounting for the impact of real time intel being provided to Ukraine. Ukraine is able to shift resources effectively to point that it has to some extent blunted Russia's overwhelming numbers
3. Ignoring squad level Discipline - since the times of the Soviets, discipline was the bane of the Reds. Looks like not much has improved on that front.
Behind the scenes, the West is running a massive supply op to ensure Ukraine's equipment losses are irrelevant. Russia has captured so many ATGMs that it can actually run the war for a few weeks just with the captured ATGM stocks.
A lot of noise is being made about the equipment losses without going into the specifics. Russia is still largely using older tanks (of the 1000+ tanks lost, less than 25% were T-80s or T-90s). West celebrates quality over quantity and Russians are making them expend their ATGMs at a fantastic rate. Supplies are not endless, neither are the blank cheques.
As we open for the Russian end game, I'd daresay we will see a jump in performance once a general war is declared (expect it around May 7) just as West runs out of free ATGMs and other fun toys to hand over to Ukraine for free.
Meanwhile, after the phase 1 disaster (yup phase 1 performance by Russia was less than impressive) Russia has still achieved some of its objectives, Russian speaking areas are Red, land route to Crimea is done.
The ones in progress are
1. Making Ukraine a land locked country - Taking Odessa completes this task
2. Sending Ukraine back to the 80s. Ukraine's infra is gone. Post this war Ukraine will not be in a position to compete with Russia in the arms market or be a serious player in steel/agriculture markets. A poor country is forced to choose between roads, factories, hospitals and rebuilding its armies. West's generosity is not endless.
Russia will walk away with JUST enough to call it a win internally while the West will be able to call it a win for helping (a much smaller) Ukraine survive.
There is no WW3 here. Never was.
The only winner in this mayhem has been the US and to some extent Europe. Russian equipment reputation is in the gutter, Russian economy has taken a massive hit and Russia wont be messing around with them for a few years once Ukraine is settled. Once the madness settles, Russia can go back to being the poor yokel and sell its hydrocarbons for hard cash and western technology - on western terms (or atleast that is the plan)
That was the west's sole objective. Ukraine ended up being a sacrificial pawn.
We will most likely see an oriental remake within the next 10 years if Xi Huzoor manages to survive this term.
Yeah, and they've lost plenty of Su-34s and Ka-52s/Mi-28 as well. Losing aircraft is always a great money earner. As is losing your best customers.
Putin stepping down for cancer treatment. What a fascinating turn of events. #Putin #Ukraine️ #UkraineWar #Russia https://t.co/5nADCkqxX7
— War in Masquerade (@jrrdesertfox9) May 2, 2022
Part-7. How would Indian Armed forces had done this campaign.
- If we try and compare a likely Indian Offensive into Pakistan or if Indian armed forces had planned this offensive for RA, we would not have committed such a large force for Kiev while we too would have gone for a diversionary attack to unsettle the well defended and dugout enemy forces and force them to fight in areas where they have no defenses.
- We would have identified areas wherein we have mostly UKR citizens live and bombarded the hell out of them. Creat deep thrust lines rather than attack the entire front.
- Support these IBGs and formation with whatever we have instead of diverting airpower to strike HVTs when we have missiles to do that job more effectively.
- The opening stage will hit all kind of energy sources from fuel dumps to power station to food silos and water supply sources for the area we plan to progress into. Going after Communications centers is pointless as we have seen in this war. The alternates thru satellites are always available.
- We did it in 1965 by taking out their ammo trains and also in 1971 when we used AN-12s to carpet bomb the railyards of Pakistan. RA for some unknown reasons has still not done it. We had USA+UK threatening us with their CBGs.
- The local insurgency must work with the main objective and the main aim of the war like we have in Balochistan and KP in Pakistan. Russia did not do it while it could have done it easily. Entire UKR has minimum 25% population of Russians especially in its west. They could have been ideal for such disruptive resistance.
- In case of Pakistan we do not have such constraints of India friendly population. We will blast away and kill who ever comes in front of us.
- The combined arms IBGs will have their integral air power and infantry to support their offensive and that will see much lesser attrition of our Tank columns with a much higher rate of progress in battle field.
- IBGs are supposed to give us a breakthru and advance as much as 25kms a day in heavy resistance. But these IBGs will attack only in a very limited frontage to achieve rapid breakthrus and later engage in pincer to encirlcle the enmy forces and destroy them.
- Their will be no heliborne ops or deep insertions by paratroopers unless the breakthru is made.
- Incase of RA no such conditions were met when they tried to occupy the airfield next to Kiev.
- Indian Armed forces are also watching this battle and we are learning lessons from it. BUT a statement by IAF chief let out the secret. He said that UKR is winning on tactical level. Why tactical level? and did he mean UKR or the NATO? This will be covered tomorrow.
Transnistria is isolated from Russia. What Russia wants is for them to start something so that Ukraine can send forces that are being used in the southern front but that is not going to work. Those Russian troops in Moldova are ill-equipped, no fighting experience and no air support. I guess what I'm trying to say is these Russian troops are cannon fodder to hopefully relieve Russian troops fighting in south Ukraine.
If Moldova is attacked in any way by these Russian troops Romania aint having none of it and could unilaterally step in with the invitation of Moldova to help Moldova's "terrorist" problem.
how many wreaks did we see? Ghost of Kiev has turned out to be lie bigger than your crap posted her. You believe in propaganda. can you please tell me as to why UKR asking for heavy weapons like tanks when the number of tanks brought on by Russia is lower than what UKR had before the start of war? Something does not add up. UKR is asking for arty and tanks, why? did they get destroyed or captured? Only thing that UKR has won till now is information and propaganda war. Did you see your sissie mercenariers from US+Uk+canada crying in front of russians asking for mercy?
Gaand main dum nahi aur hum kisi say kam nahi. Bloody Wokes.
Yes, entire countries can be manipulated. It's all about leverage. For India, the greatest weakness is energy. Because we lack sources of our own, we need to import, and importing requires forex, and access to forex requires significant acquiescence to the West. For some other countries, it's food. You can think about it yourself, how important food and energy are to yourself and what would happen if you are denied either.
Russia cannot withdraw simply because we will end up seeing WW3 at a future date if they do, or even the demise of their country. The Russians can only escalate from here or be defeated in the process, only to come back again.
Europe never needed to increase defence spending like it has to today. Only an expanded navy was necessary to counter PLAN, and it was specific only to two or three of the richer countries, like the UK, France and Germany. Everybody else could chill. Now all of Europe needs to hyperspend on the military across the board. And what about the terrorism aspect? What if Russia does a Pakistan and starts conducting terrorist attacks all over Europe through proxies? Will you go to war with Russia then? Europe's entire internal and external security apparatus will need an overhaul.
Remember our option to break energy deadlock by going for Iranian and venuzualian oil. Russian oil is available always. We dont have to bow down to these idiots of History.
What option US and west have today? support India or make china stronger which will eat up West.
Switchblade drone: How the "kamikaze" anti-tank weapon works
The one-time use unmanned aerial vehicle is a powerful weapon that can dive bomb its targets, such as tanks and artillery nests, at a range of up to 30 miles – and is being supplied by the hundreds to Ukraine for use against Russian forces.
Senior defense official: Since start of invasion, Russia has fired more than 2125 missiles into Ukraine.
— Andrew Clevenger (@andclev) May 2, 2022
80% of 90 M777 Howitzers have been distributed to Ukraine, SDO says. Almost all of the radars have been delivered, and 14 flights into region from CONUS over last 24 hours.
Yep, we are diplomatically in the most advantageous position today. I hope it's taken advantage of.
Yeah, with Ukraine's money, not their own.
The bigger ones can be taken out by SAMs, because the cost justifies it.
The fact is most US and NATO allies are democracies. Most Russian allies are not. India is the odd one out. You can call it compliance or you can call it aligned interests. How is that so many democracies are compliant, or have aligned interests? Take a look at the nations who voted to block Russia's expulsion from the UNHCR, it's like a list of the world's worst actors. Why is it that Russia can only persuade dictatorships into compliance/alliance?
Ukraine got invaded because it was trying to be a democracy, where people's needs are heard, rather than having fake votes. All the surrounding countries who were once in the USSR know this and the EU does. Democratic alliance with Russia from another Eastern European country is simply an impossibility. It would be like having a Muslim pig farmer.
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Are you talking about india? A country used to hesitate take any meaningful offensive action in last 20 years? A country with political leadership who issued orders not cross loc at any cause during 99 Kargil war?A country who used a bomblet which designed to inflict least collateral damage during Balakot.
India will put down its weaponry if pakistan use human sheild. Because our political leaderships are pussies ,they scared of killing enemies & war time loss.
Well if you're admitting that you're being manipulated, that's fine I guess. And since the forex holds value better than rupees, surely that's a good thing?
No we won't, that's garbage. We would be seeing WWIII now if the west had any desire to get into a war with Russia. Russia's demise, if it happens, will come from the Russian people, just as the Soviet demise before it did, and it will be their own fault for frankly being authoritarian imbeciles, who slashed the wrists of their own economy for no good reason, whilst imposing ridiculous laws against protest. Not one NATO tank or boot will cross the Russian border.
They didn't until Putin took over. When you have a huge authoritarian regime next door with a large military, who's spending 4-6% of GDP on defence, you are a fool to only spend 1%. China is Russia's best friend, you talk about combatting them but not Russia, this is illiterate foreign policy.
If Russia attacks via proxies, the proxies will receive cruise missiles every time there's an attack. Simple as that. There won't be a war, there'll just be missiles. No attacks, no missiles.