If Abhinandan's capture (alone) was the reason why India didn't escalate, in case of a war, you think there will be no POWs?
Every time some one gets shot down on the other side of LoC, the leadership will decide to de-escalate?
Only because his father was retd airmarshal and a fast friend of Dhnoa. Had he been like Nachiketa a commoner, India would have gone for the assault. So that's why. Otherwise, full blown missile strike was planed on Karachi . So they bargained the halt on Indian missile strike with return of the PoW and halted Indian assault.