Alarm Raised Over Destabilizing New Russian Threat In Space: Reports

[BMD]

No, they say even the Russian capability is in the long term, it's not operational today.

If it was anything serious, like a nuke deployment platform, they'd shoot it down. Better to risk a fair conflict than an unfair one. Laser? Unlikely, they wouldn't have built one for blinding satellites on the ground (Kalina), if they were building one in space to destroy them.

 

[randomradio]

Here's a balanced view of the S-500. Most of its claimed capabilities are untested, even in a controlled environment without friction.

The part where it says is untested is in reference to hypersonic targets, not ICBMs. Or IRBMs. We actually do not know. Plus it uses the 40N6M for the role, so the missile system itself is now nearly a decade old.

The ones performing the ABM role are 2 new missiles, and we know nothing about them.

 

[BMD]

The part where it says is untested is in reference to hypersonic targets, not ICBMs. Or IRBMs. We actually do not know. Plus it uses the 40N6M for the role, so the missile system itself is now nearly a decade old.

The ones performing the ABM role are 2 new missiles, and we know nothing about them.

Show me evidence of testing against ICBMs in any phase of flight, else it's just crap for the brochure, so they can flog more S-400s to second-rate militaries, only to have Storm Shadows fly over them.

 

[randomradio]

If it was anything serious, like a nuke deployment platform, they'd shoot it down. Better to risk a fair conflict than an unfair one. Laser? Unlikely, they wouldn't have built one for blinding satellites on the ground (Kalina), if they were building one in space to destroy them.

Russia already operates the nuke-capable A-235. The S-500 could also have a nuke component. So at least there's nothing in terms of nuke SAMs that are a secret. And this is not new capability, just transfers over from the A-135.

PAK DP is not space-based.

So it most definitely is a satellite. And since it's ASAT, it most definitely performs a kinetic kill.

 

[BMD]

Russia already operates the nuke-capable A-235. The S-500 could also have a nuke component. So at least there's nothing in terms of nuke SAMs that are a secret. And this is not new capability, just transfers over from the A-135.

That isn't space-based, or very new, the US operated such missiles in the 1970s.

PAK DP is not space-based.

So it isn't what they're talking about either.

So it most definitely is a satellite. And since it's ASAT, it most definitely performs a kinetic kill.

EW can be ASAT too, nowhere is a kinetic kill specified.

 

[randomradio]

Show me evidence of testing against ICBMs in any phase of flight, else it's just crap for the brochure, so they can flog more S-400s to second-rate militaries, only to have Storm Shadows fly over them.

Most tests against space targets are electronic.

For actual testing, an ICBM-representative target is typically an MRBM or IRBM. Unless they talk about it, there's no way of knowing.

 

[randomradio]

That isn't space-based, or very new, the US operated such missiles in the 1970s.

Yeah, so it's not nuclear.

So it isn't what they're talking about either.

Yeah. Unless new information comes in, the PAK DP can manage an altitude of up to 50 km but not beyond with just air-breathing engines. If there are plans to add rocket thrusters at a later date, let's see when that later date comes.

EW can be ASAT too, nowhere is a kinetic kill specified.

EW is not a destabilizing system, regardless of whether it's nuclear powered or not, nor is it a "weapon."

 

[screambowl]

EW is not a destabilizing system, regardless of whether it's nuclear powered or not, nor is it a "weapon."

That's debatable. You could be right about kinetic ASAT weapon but EW can induce catastrophic disturbances in a regulated system which can cause destabilizing effects. For example there is power electronics onboard every satellite. Electric resonance is very useful in communication but equally hazardous in case of power electronics, AI based EW is capable of inducing resonance in power electronics.

 

[Rajput Lion]

Russia detonates a thermonuclear satellites in space in vicinity of US satellite constellation and they all get destroyed with nuclear energy and subsequent EMP field. And then RS-28 and Topol-M bring the doomsday present to the US. This threat may not be apparent, but it's definitely grave. That's why there is so much hue and cry over it.

 

[BMD]

Yeah, so it's not nuclear.

It's demonstarted no conventional capability against ICBMs, indeed it's only stated to be capable up to 5km/s and test evidence for even that is sparse.

S 500 Missile System - An In-Depth Analysis

A comprehensive overview of the S500 missile system, its capabilities, and its implications in the current geopolitical context. This article also compares the S500 to its counterpart, the S400.

testbook.com

Yeah. Unless new information comes in, the PAK DP can manage an altitude of up to 50 km but not beyond with just air-breathing engines. If there are plans to add rocket thrusters at a later date, let's see when that later date comes.

Pie in the sky. Russia couldn't even budget that before the war. It's first priority as regards anything aerial is building Su-57s in a decent quantity. The B-21 will be in service a decade before either the DA or DP even flies.

EW is not a destabilizing system, regardless of whether it's nuclear powered or not, nor is it a "weapon."

It is if it can permamantly neutralise a target but really the DoD are looking for more funding with this unclear announcement. Anyway:

Space Force's FY24 budget includes 'offensive' options for space. What does that mean? - Breaking Defense

"There are hard kill and soft kill capabilities, if you will, that we're funding," Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said with regards to offensive space capabilities, but none that would created dangerous space debris.

breakingdefense.com

Most tests against space targets are electronic.

Evidence.

For actual testing, an ICBM-representative target is typically an MRBM or IRBM. Unless they talk about it, there's no way of knowing.

There's no evidence either way, I can point to multiple tests of GBI, SM-3 and THAAD. E.g.:

SM-3 Block IIA Missile Excels in First Ever ICBM Intercept Test - Naval News

For the first time ever, an SM-3 Block IIA missile successfully intercepted a threat-representative Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) target

www.navalnews.com

 

[randomradio]

It's demonstarted no conventional capability against ICBMs, indeed it's only stated to be capable up to 5km/s and test evidence for even that is sparse.

S 500 Missile System - An In-Depth Analysis

A comprehensive overview of the S500 missile system, its capabilities, and its implications in the current geopolitical context. This article also compares the S500 to its counterpart, the S400.

testbook.com

Okay. Whatever the case they don't talk about it.

Pie in the sky. Russia couldn't even budget that before the war. It's first priority as regards anything aerial is building Su-57s in a decent quantity. The B-21 will be in service a decade before either the DA or DP even flies.

PAK DP prototypes are already under production, very likely undergoing ground tests. First flight is scheduled for 2025. The same with PAK DA.

It is if it can permamantly neutralise a target but really the DoD are looking for more funding with this unclear announcement. Anyway:

Space Force's FY24 budget includes 'offensive' options for space. What does that mean? - Breaking Defense

"There are hard kill and soft kill capabilities, if you will, that we're funding," Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said with regards to offensive space capabilities, but none that would created dangerous space debris.

breakingdefense.com

Exactly... Unclear.

Evidence.

What evidence? That's how it's always done. Even nuclear tests are simulated. Just a simple google search will give you the answer.

There's no evidence either way, I can point to multiple tests of GBI, SM-3 and THAAD. E.g.:

Like I said, we will know only if they talk about it. Both China and Russia constantly perform such tests. They just don't talk about it and neither does the West.

Here's an example:

Russian Army Says Successfully Tested New Missile Defense System - The Moscow Times

Russia has successfully test-launched a new missile defense system at its Sary Shagan firing range in neighboring Kazakhstan, the country’s Defense Ministry announced Friday. “The anti-missile defense system is in service with the Aerospace Forces and is designed to protect against air and...

www.themoscowtimes.com

Doesn't talk about the system they tested, nor the target.

 

[BMD]

Okay. Whatever the case they don't talk about it.

Yet they big 'up the capabilities of all other missiles.

PAK DP prototypes are already under production, very likely undergoing ground tests. First flight is scheduled for 2025. The same with PAK DA.

Just like the T-14 was in service in Ukraine 5 years ago right? I bet it can't fly at 50km altitude, except maybe in a zoom climb, and probably even then no. Want to place a bet?

Exactly... Unclear.

Yeah, because they're looking for funding.

What evidence? That's how it's always done. Even nuclear tests are simulated. Just a simple google search will give you the answer.

Making up BS you mean?

Like I said, we will know only if they talk about it. Both China and Russia constantly perform such tests. They just don't talk about it and neither does the West.

Here's an example:

Russian Army Says Successfully Tested New Missile Defense System - The Moscow Times

Russia has successfully test-launched a new missile defense system at its Sary Shagan firing range in neighboring Kazakhstan, the country’s Defense Ministry announced Friday. “The anti-missile defense system is in service with the Aerospace Forces and is designed to protect against air and...

www.themoscowtimes.com

Doesn't talk about the system they tested, nor the target.

If they had evidence they would show it. They're very quick to show videos of launches of such missiles, just not intercepts. And the fact it has a 150kg warhead doesn't indicate HTK capability now does it?

 

[randomradio]

Yet they big 'up the capabilities of all other missiles.

Export customers are happy though.

Just like the T-14 was in service in Ukraine 5 years ago right? I bet it can't fly at 50km altitude, except maybe in a zoom climb, and probably even then no. Want to place a bet?

Sure. It's a ramjet. They claim it's near space.

Yeah, because they're looking for funding.

Doesn't matter. It's a useless article.

Making up BS you mean?

Like that article?

If they had evidence they would show it. They're very quick to show videos of launches of such missiles, just not intercepts. And the fact it has a 150kg warhead doesn't indicate HTK capability now does it?

They don't show evidence about for strategic technologies.

 

[Innominate]

That's just DACS. All major space programs died at the end of the Cold War.

No they have not they entered the black program budget which ten years ago was $60 billion.

Even the ridiculous idea for a 300-man space shuttle, which is perfectly doable, just needs money.

Lol. Not ridiculous and has been done.

And no, there are no weapons in space. You don't need a satellite to trail other satellites for photographs, they are perfectly visible from regular telescopes on the ground and other spy satellites. Something called zoom.

Kill vehicles are weapons and US likely has a sht load of them orbiting attached to COM/SIGINT and other Gubment SATS for defensive or offensive purposes. Kill vehicles are not big like the first video that one was 12 inches in length.

 

[BMD]

Export customers are happy though.

Because they're cheap and they haven't experienced how bad they perform in combat... until now, hence when Russian arms exports have taken a beating.

Russia’s Boom Business Goes Bust

Moscow’s arms exports have fallen to levels not seen since the Soviet Union’s collapse.

foreignpolicy.com

Southeast Asia is a case study in Russia’s declining prospects as an arms exporter. (Published 2022)

Analysts say Russia’s performance in Ukraine, coupled with Western sanctions, is likely to hurt its ability to sell weapons abroad. Southeast Asia is a case in point.

www.nytimes.com

Put a video where your mouth is.

Sure. It's a ramjet. They claim it's near space.

Except the aircraft is yet to even be seen even as a model.

Doesn't matter. It's a useless article.

But it leaves people like you to dream up what it might be and get weird ideas.

Like that article?

Article wasn't specific.

They don't show evidence about for strategic technologies.

It would have been observed by others like Chinese FOBS glider and ASAT tests were.

 

[randomradio]

No they have not they entered the black program budget which ten years ago was $60 billion.

Sure. That's where a lot of secret development happens, this is the case for all major countries. But to make it a reality, aerospace programs in particular have to come out of the woodwork for testing.

Lol. Not ridiculous and has been done.

It's difficult to hide such a big program. The public can be kept in the dark, but not the case with countries, especially in this day and age. The only way to keep it secret is to never test it.

There are a lot of experimental technologies around, but none of them count until they become operational. There's no such thing as a deus ex machina when it comes to the military.

Kill vehicles are weapons and US likely has a sht load of them orbiting attached to COM/SIGINT and other Gubment SATS for defensive or offensive purposes. Kill vehicles are not big like the first video that one was 12 inches in length.

Nah, the US is unlikely to break their treaty obligations.

 

[randomradio]

Because they're cheap and they haven't experienced how bad they perform in combat... until now, hence when Russian arms exports have taken a beating.

So you're saying sanctions have nothing to do with that?

Put a video where your mouth is.

What's the big deal about showing a launch?

Except the aircraft is yet to even be seen even as a model.

Er... We didn't see a model of the Su-57 until first flight either.

But it leaves people like you to dream up what it might be and get weird ideas.

That's my point. You are the one getting wild ideas.

It would have been observed by others like Chinese FOBS glider and ASAT tests were.

We only know about some 'cause they were publicly revealed. The Russians do not reveal anything about their ABM tests, outside generic information. We didn't even know how the 40N6 looked like until it entered production.

Even all the S-500 missiles were obscured in videos until they were inducted.

Here's one, which is censored.

 

[BMD]

So you're saying sanctions have nothing to do with that?

Absolutely not. People buying weapons from Russia were never in the group applying sanctions in the first place. They've just seem that the hallowed S-400 system and Russian IADS isn't as great as it's made out to be, even when operated and maintained by supposedly trained personnel from its host nation. So you can only imagine how bad it will be when operated by 3rd party sh1t-hole states.

What's the big deal about showing a launch?

Intercept at end of video.

Er... We didn't see a model of the Su-57 until first flight either.

We saw lots I'm afraid, just like Su-75 Foolsmate.

That's my point. You are the one getting wild ideas.

Says you making wild assumptions about what it is that haven't been specified.

We only know about some 'cause they were publicly revealed. The Russians do not reveal anything about their ABM tests, outside generic information. We didn't even know how the 40N6 looked like until it entered production.

Looks the same as 48N6. And blah, blah, blah, put a video where your mouth is. It's because of naive fools willing to buy equipment without evidence that Russia even has air defence sales.

Even all the S-500 missiles were obscured in videos until they were inducted.

Here's one, which is censored.

Showing an ICBM intercept doesn't show any missile details, only capability. Stop the pathetic excuses and put a video where your mouth is.

 

[randomradio]

Absolutely not. People buying weapons from Russia were never in the group applying sanctions in the first place. They've just seem that the hallowed S-400 system and Russian IADS isn't as great as it's made out to be, even when operated and maintained by supposedly trained personnel from its host nation. So you can only imagine how bad it will be when operated by 3rd party sh1t-hole states.

Sure, your opinion.

We saw lots I'm afraid, just like Su-75 Foolsmate.

That's not an official program.

Looks the same as 48N6. And blah, blah, blah, put a video where your mouth is. It's because of naive fools willing to buy equipment without evidence that Russia even has air defence sales.

Export sales are evidence.

 

[BMD]

Sure, your opinion.

Fact, as reflected by Russian arms sales plummeting.

That's not an official program.

And yet it still has a model.

Export sales are evidence.

Exactly, I rest my case.

Russia’s Boom Business Goes Bust

Moscow’s arms exports have fallen to levels not seen since the Soviet Union’s collapse.

foreignpolicy.com

Russian arm trade tumbles

Russia has fallen to a distant second behind the United States in arms export trade and is likely to slide further.

www.gisreportsonline.com

According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Russia’s share of global arms exports fell from 22 percent from 2013-17 to 16 percent from 2018-22. Meanwhile, the United States cemented its position as the global leader, increasing its share from 33 to 40 percent.

Arms industry of Russia - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Russia's share has been falling for over a decade.

US arms exports increased 50% last year since 2022 as well.

The US ramped up arms exports by more than 50% in 2023, cutting into Russia's own weapons trade: Politico

Russia's invasion of Ukraine helped increase US arms exports to $81 billion in 2023, Politico reported, while also damaging Russia's weapons trade.

www.businessinsider.com