So the f-16 deal is more or less done with and is now left alone to die its own peaceful death. Good riddance. USA will be compensated with some other deal, this time hopefully something more useful to us.
IAF Chronicles - A side view of whats going on behind the closed doors in New Delhi
- Thread starter Aashish
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I would say you are too optimistic. We will not go beyond 100 of these planes. They are good but too costly. We have to work on 2/3 plane developments. And also upgrade
Existing planes like sukhi mki. We do t have enough money to spend.
If @ $100 mil/piece, Rafale is expensive, then with $70 mil price tag F-16 is not cheap either. Plus India has already spent more than a billion for IAF specific changes. Why to spend again for F-16?? And all these for a 40 yr old plane which will not be inducted till 2024-25!! Just wait and watch. Our famous bureaucracy will show it's "Kamal" ?. It will be delayed so much that even Americans will prefer to scrap their assembly line!!
Cost per plane is more than 100 million for Rafale but it's definitely worth the buck. But I would still say it won't cross number which was marked for MMRCA tender. We simply cannot afford so many costly toys.
Regarding our talented Babu's if you go few pages back I was one of few who advice ate using their talent to delay F16 deals.
I am not saying the orders will be big and in one tranch. Rather it will be spread over 10-12 years and in tranches of 36. By 2025, India will be a 5 trillion economy. We can certainly afford this expensive but essential piece of equipment. Since F-16 will be political bomb, what other option India has??
Trust me by 2025 we will be in race to induct more 5th generation planes into IAF.
Indian forex is limited. There is a need to balance short and long term goals. Long term goals is to build indigenous planes - mainly Tejas Mk2 and AMCA. MK2 is already progressing well while AMCA has completed preliminary design review.
By committing to buy 100s of F16, we will be sacrificing 25 billion dollars which is not something India can afford. If the political attitude of USA is one sided without any feasible returns, it will be really difficult to maintain that.
Indigenous planes are the only planes that can win wars as they can be ramped up at will on any signs of build up by enemy and can be repaired quite efficiently. Just having one use F16 which can't be repaired or replaced when needed is meaningless. It is like an encrypted file.
It is better to buy other items like drones and high technology stuffs with same forex.
Even Rafale is not worth it for the same reason.
I don't get the forex argument. We had even less forex when we started buying MKIs, also the difference in price may be big (60m vs 100m+) but in % terms of GDP or even forex we are still better off now with Rafale then we were then with MKIs.
One more thing we are taking about MII and not flyaways, It should have a good amount of indigenous content by Value.
We purchased minimum amount of Su30 initially. Also, Russia had offered generous ToT which very few countries offer. They allowed India to make most of the parts in India. As of now, India is capable of manufacturing Su30 by itself if India can make its engine and radar. UTTAM radar may be scaled to Su30 and a variant of Kaveri - K10 may be developed for AMCA and Su30 and entire Su30 can be indigenised.
The forex in India is indeed increasing but that is due to capital inflows. Current Account is still a deficit. More imports will exacerbate current account problem. That will result in rupee depreciation and inflation. In addition, it will also cause job loss and reduce the fitness of the economy. This will in turn reduce growth rate and hence ultimately result in lesser defence expenditures in the future.
First, the short term need is minimal. The 42 squadron is not really necessary for self defense. With advanced SAM and other technological advancement, the interceptor role has been severely minimised. Even bombing role has been minimised with cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and satellite surveillance.
Next, it is important to do anything with a real aim and vision. Mere repulsing enemy is never enough and real offence is needed. That can never be with imported planes. No matter what MII you say, the important technology is pure import. This will mean that any damage to engine or plane won't be able to be repaired during war. Spare parts from abroad has to be imported. This will cause additional strain in forex and add unreliability.
As of now, Mk2 is going in full swing and within 3 years it will fly. The design also has been confirmed for Naval Mk2 (AF Mk2 may be similar except for LEVCON). Even if F16 is ordered, it will take another 3-4 years for its first batch to arrive. This will make no sense as Mk2 would be there to be used instead of F16.
I don't even understand the need for F16 or any imported planes at all in such scenario. When we are close to making our own plane, why buy import? Does USA buy Eurofighter Typhoon? What kind of ties is it that we should buy things which we don't even need?
What if we don't need any imported planes at all? What if tejas Mk2 and Mk1A will be used to replace all the planes and even expand the squadrons to over 42 by 2030? India may be 5 trillion dollar economy. But, that would depend on oil prices. As I see it, Indian economy will be 3.5 trillion dollars by 2025 as oil prices will soar from 2020 and that will hit economy.
5th generation is overhyped. Tejas itself has sensor fusion and lot of high end technology. Even stealth exists in tejas. The concept of 5th generation arose due to the new technological progress arising out of supercomputing revolution like fast FBW, AESA radar etc.
You must also include inflation deductions to see how much was real increase:
CPI India 2004 3.77 %
CPI India 2005 4.25 %
CPI India 2006 5.79 %
CPI India 2007 6.39 %
CPI India 2008 8.32 %
CPI India 2009 10.83 %
CPI India 2010 12.11 %
CPI India 2011 8.87 %
CPI India 2012 9.30 %
CPI India 2013 10.92 %
CPI India 2014 6.37 %
CPI India 2015 5.88 %
CPI India 2016 4.97 %
CPI India 2017 2.19 %
We can see that a lot of time in UPA era, increase in tax has been less than inflation. 2008-9, 2009-10, had seen severe contraction in real revenue while 2011-12, 2012-13, 2013-14 has seen near zero tax gains
As Aashish talked about networking french / european efforts, here is a pdf about the ESSOR project (not anymore a project, IOC obtained this year). Contact is the french developmen within ESSOR. Fianlly, ESSOR is JTRS (US) compatible. There is also a ne datalink developed for drines by Thalès.
http://www.occar.int/media/raw/_1569736547_ESSOR_Paper_for_MILCOM_2013.pdf
http://www.occar.int/media/raw/_1569736547_ESSOR_Paper_for_MILCOM_2013.pdf
Rumors seen on a French forum:
- DRAL has a hard time recruiting skilled people -- everyone with the right profile is already employed by HAL. They're thinking they have to train people from scratch, which will mean spending a few years on training before work can begin in earnest.
- HAL lobbyists are doing everything they can to hamper and hinder DRAL's progresses.
- Building the DRAL plant is currently on hold because of red tape.
Obviously, everyone will have to be trained from scratch. How can there be free floating people? It is not in India nor in USA or France. The aeronautical engineering is a very high end job and there is no scopes for startups to just pop out. That is why there is a joint venture being done - to get France to train some people in their facility.
DRAL is doing a very specific work and that will require specialised training.
Aeronautical startups are possible in France or the USA, because there are aeronautical engineering schools in these countries. E.g. in France there's SUPAREO that was originally created in 1909. People getting their diploma there can then find jobs in Airbus, Dassault, MBDA, Arianespace, or any of their many, many subcontractors. Or they can go abroad and work for other aeronautic companies.
In India, there isn't a full ecosystem of aeronautic schools and industries, there's just HAL.
In India, there isn't a full ecosystem of aeronautic schools and industries, there's just HAL.
Even IITs have aeronautical engineering. But, the problem is with experienced hands to directly start the jobs on the go. DRAL doesn't need freshers but need experienced people who want to jump ships. Very few are willing to leave HAL as HAL gives job security and is more stable than a startup like DRAL.
But, yeah, since France and USA has civil airliners, there is much larger pool of experienced hands to get a few defectors. You may be right in this. However, it is not the case in Britain, Russia where there is limited civil airliners. In other words, having a big civil aviation industry is needed to get experienced hands for startups. Otherwise, it will be very difficult to get experienced people
Why the need to train people, thought DRAL will be mostly doing screw driver job
DRAL may be making minor parts for maintenance too. Also, even screwdriver jobs is a big thing in aeronautical engineering. Assembly, reassembly, proper fitment of parts, checking for errors etc are extremely complex considering the risks and the number of parts involved
Nah. Dassault's strategy was to set up a convincing MII as fast as possible. It would anchor them in India's industrial landscape through that joint venture and kill the chances of foreign competitors (Boeing, LockMart, Saab). But they can't go as fast as they'd like.
That may have been long term strategy. In the short term, DRAL was to do only screwdriver job and minor manufacture.
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