What exactly is a strike aircraft?
SOP for MKI from day one if I remember correctly was air superiority and Air interdiction. And to clarify further Jaguars were never just classified as just strike aircrafts but rather Deep penetration Strike aircraft, which essentially means Deep Air Support or Air interdiction. Given that MKI's role is very similar to F15SE, which again is a strike aircraft, I do not think it is necessary that Jag's have to be replaced by Rafales or AMCA, Jaguars Strike roles can carried out by any multirole or an precision bombing aircraft, which includes M2K, MKI, Rafales, EFT, F16IN, Gripen. In given conflicts zones of Syria a bulk of Air interdiction mission are being carried out by SU24's which a strike roles.
MKI can be used for strike roles, that doesn't mean it's been designed for strike roles.
MKI isn't a panacea for all our problems. I will again have to take you back to how maintenance intensive, time consuming and expensive the MKI really is. The fact is the IAF doesn't need more than 200 MKI. But we have 270 only because we haven't properly replaced our older jets with other cheaper and easier to operate alternatives.
Jaguar is one such aircraft which cannot be replaced by the MKI. The F-15E cannot replace the Jaguar either. You need an aircraft that is much more easier to operate than the other two, that's why Rafale and AMCA.
And I mentioned Rafale and AMCA because you replace your old aircraft with new aircraft, not another old aircraft. Rafale and AMCA will be our only real future options. And the IAF has publicly said they want to replace their Jaguars with AMCA.
Mig-21/Mig-23 > MKI and LCA
Mig-23/Mig-27 > Rafale
Mig-29/M2000 > FGFA
Jaguar > AMCA
This is the official replacement list for the IAF.
Multi role aircraft with decent payload range and good targeting system can be effectively used for "Strike" element of your Strike package. In multiple exercises, strike packages have been composed of purely M2k, MKI and Mig29, M2k Mig21's and MKI, and Jaguars, M2k and MKI, with MKI and Mig29's taking on Air Sup formations in bulk of the exercises.
All aircraft have their own part to play in such exercises. MKI and Mig-29 almost always handle fighter sweep and top cover. Jaguars and Mig-27s are always strike. Mig-21 always plays escort. M2K can switch between recce, strike and escort as and when necessary.
But once you bring in Rafales, none of the above becomes necessary. The Rafales will take over fighter sweep, top cover, escort, recce and strike all at once. Even the strike equipped Rafales can join the fight after they have dropped their loads. AMCA is basically a more modern Rafale. So these are the two jets actually qualified to replace the Jaguar.
The 20m2 RCS MKI is not fit for strike missions anymore. Compared to the latest fighters coming out now, it's obsolete in the air to air domain also. We have a short window of about 5-10 years where the MKI will continue to be useful as a frontline aircraft where it will still be useful against PAF. Post-2025, the MKI is history. The upgraded version will be good for another 10 years after it's operational, but it will still not be a commander's first choice against more capable aircraft like the J-20 or SAMs like the S400. Hence a very bad choice if we are to replace the Jaguars with MKIs. We will need aircraft like Rafale, AMCA and FGFA. After a point, the MKI will only be good as a missile truck supporting better aircraft or as a bomb truck if the environment is permissible. The F-15 in the USAF has already been reduced to this status now.
So please stop pushing the MKI down the IAF's throats. The MKI is based on 40-year-old technologies and even they know it is reaching its expiry date. Else they would have followed your advice and bought a lot more.