India - Pakistan Standoff 2019

[Paro]

1. They are being punished.

2. The moment you bomb their Cantonments, as suggested by you, the war expands to bombing our cities and towns. Now, why would India, with an economy that is doing well, do that?


My alternative suggestion, which I think is what is happening, is that the military pressure must be kept up. This is being done by the undermentioned three ways:

1. IAF, being weapons free for all practical purposes, will be used to strike other targets as and when the GoI wants it done. Till then, the weapons free status and the enhanced sortie rates will keep them busy.

2. IA, since it dominates the LC, can, at will hit targets on their side for any and all transgressions.

3. IN, having being deployed in Arabian Sea and what can literally be called some nautical miles away from Pakistan (within a couple of hours to get in range) must continue its posture of heightened state of alert. Unlike the popular misconception that Pakistanis try to peddle of being able to keep an eye on the waterfront as far as Kerala, the airspace and the seas are denied to them the moment they reach any where in proximity to the IN. I can mark the same on map but it is not prudent to do that as of now. IN has 'eyes' on every nook and corner of Pakistani coastline as we speak.

Concurrently, we must continue our diplomatic offensive. Pakistanis are very happy over the Kashmir reference in OIC and are claiming it as a sort of victory.

Heaven knows, only fools can do that. Imagine having to boycott an organization that they created as the organization failed to accede to their demands to un-invite India from the meet. While the narrative of 'Muslim solidarity' has to be portrayed, the situation remains quite different.

And with the proof of F-16 use being given to US, how long do you think will it take India to make a dent in that inventory without actually having to risk platforms or lives?

But for how long. How long can we maintain this tempo of military readiness on the front lines? Won't that eat into our budget? Won't the army eventually go back into the barracks? Wouldn't it wear out the airforces spares and reduce their availability? once the military goes back terror attacks would again increase.

 

[Bharath]

2. No indication of which plane was shot. I doubt there is an official statement on type of Pakistani aircraft been shot.

the press meet from india did say f-16 was shot by mig 21 bison

 

[Guynextdoor]

They have lied through their teeth even this time too..

1. F-16 has not been used / no American weapons used.
2. Two then three pilots landed in PoJ&K.

But then our government has been too little on any statements too :
1. No indication of damage caused by bombs.
2. No indication of which plane was shot. I doubt there is an official statement on type of Pakistani aircraft been shot.

I have suspected for a long time that both India and Pakistan might have dropped bombs with the fuse is removed. This explains why several weapons without significant damage the noted in Pakistan occupied Kashmir. This also explain why the Pakistani bombs that hit Indian military compounds did no damage. It might be that one location in Pakistan which is the compound in balakot may have seen alive bombardment.

 

[Bharath]

But for how long. How long can we maintain this tempo of military readiness on the front lines? Won't that eat into our budget? Won't the army eventually go back into the barracks? Wouldn't it wear out the airforces spares and reduce their availability? once the military goes back terror attacks would again increase.

compare the same on the other side. this is an attrition war at the moment.

 

[nair]

Yes. As far as I'm concerned, the information we have received is way more than adequate.

It is just our bad luck that the cloud cover has spoilt our chances of seeing the extent of the damage. I'm curious too. So I hope something comes out of civvie SAR images.

Well even if there was 0 casualties of strategic assets or non state actors.... The very objective is met.....That we will hit u hard.... Care a damn about ur nukes....

 

[Shajida Khan]

I beleieve the narratives of both nations are for 2 totally different audience.....I mean primary intended recipient....

1) Pakistan : Internal population - to maintain the larger than life larger than almighty stature
2) Pakistan Army/ISI : To tell them Surgical strike -1 was not a one time operation... Everytime there is a terror fron Pakistan we will not keep quiet.. The second recipient was international community... We are fighting terrorism not Pakistan...

There are other recipients also but they come later......

Call me cynic but my thinking is somewhat different.

I believe :

Pulwama needed a response. Among other things for political reason. But political leadership was not in mood for a longer engagement: Takes their attention away from election plus wars have a life of their own and can go any way. So, they asked forces to do the minimum viable action with complete freedom to act. Forces selected Balakot because it was reclusive, attached with JeM... So this operation was planned. It didn't go exactly as planned but still achieved its goal: An action was taken and escalation was limited.

I believe verified IAF page had sequence of events that said it was F-16?

This probably came out later. In the conference only aircraft was mentioned.

 

[randomradio]

But for how long. How long can we maintain this tempo of military readiness on the front lines? Won't that eat into our budget? Won't the army eventually go back into the barracks? Wouldn't it wear out the airforces spares and reduce their availability? once the military goes back terror attacks would again increase.

The duration isn't necessary. The only thing that matters is we can do it longer than they can.

Also, they need to import a lot of spares, while we make a lot of spares at home. So one can imagine the kind of pressure this creates on their forex.

 

[Sathya]

I have suspected for a long time that both India and Pakistan might have dropped bombs with the fuse is removed. This explains why several weapons without significant damage the noted in Pakistan occupied Kashmir. This also explain why the Pakistani bombs that hit Indian military compounds did no damage. It might be that one location in Pakistan which is the compound in balakot may have seen alive bombardment.

I thought so too ..

But unlike us , Pak don't have to be embarrassed to show unexploded ordinance.

Because their declared damage is already only few trees.

From images we got to see in Pak , trees broken from a blast . ~ exploded.

Without fuses , unexploded bomb will seen possibly in toto.. like falcon said.

 

[Bharath]

But political leadership was not in mood for a longer engagement: Takes their attention away from election plus wars have a life of their own and can go any way. So, they asked forces to do the minimum viable action with complete freedom to act. Forces selected Balakot because it was reclusive, attached with JeM... So this operation was planned. It didn't go exactly as planned but still achieved its goal: An action was taken and escalation was limited.

all of this is really your assumption. Mine are slightly different. Nuclear bluff was called, we entered Pakistan.. not disupted territories.. they couldnt cross the disputed territory itself.
I do understand where your assumptions are coming from and I really hope you are proven wrong.

 

[randomradio]

I have suspected for a long time that both India and Pakistan might have dropped bombs with the fuse is removed. This explains why several weapons without significant damage the noted in Pakistan occupied Kashmir. This also explain why the Pakistani bombs that hit Indian military compounds did no damage. It might be that one location in Pakistan which is the compound in balakot may have seen alive bombardment.

Falcons already talked about it.

If fuses were removed, then why haven't the Pakistanis paraded the dud bombs yet? They did their best planting evidence instead.

 

[randomradio]

Well even if there was 0 casualties of strategic assets or non state actors.... The very objective is met.....That we will hit u hard.... Care a damn about ur nukes....

It is the end of Pakistani sovereignty.

 

[Shajida Khan]

all of this is really your assumption. Mine are slightly different. Nuclear bluff was called, we entered Pakistan.. not disupted territories.. they couldnt cross the disputed territory itself.
I do understand where your assumptions are coming from and I really hope you are proven wrong.

Sure, I can only interpret things. I don't have privy inside the thinking and decisioning of North block and PMO.


Oh! I also always hope that I am wrong and my thinking has always been too simplistic. I am a simpleton after all.

 

[Guynextdoor]

Falcons already talked about it.

If fuses were removed, then why haven't the Pakistanis paraded the dud bombs yet? They did their best planting evidence instead.

Because it is better to say Bharti incompetence than a planned message from our side.

 

[Paro]

compare the same on the other side. this is an attrition war at the moment.

The duration isn't necessary. The only thing that matters is we can do it longer than they can.

Also, they need to import a lot of spares, while we make a lot of spares at home. So one can imagine the kind of pressure this creates on their forex.

Its not they are going to roll over and die once they run out of spares. They will still have money to sponser terror. And its not that we have only pakistan to deal with? What about china? What about increasing our footprint on the globe. We cant let a puny nation hold us out on our growth forever. It needs to end somewhere.
Someone throws a stone at you, you don't throw one back. You rip his arm off so he cants throw another stone.

 

[Guynextdoor]

I thought so too ..

But unlike us , Pak don't have to be embarrassed to show unexploded ordinance.

Because their declared damage is already only few trees.

From images we got to see in Pak , trees broken from a blast . ~ exploded.

Without fuses , unexploded bomb will seen possibly in toto.. like falcon said.

Like I said in balakot some weapons may have been live.

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

@Falcon
The PAF attack of 27 th , was foiled , but
Not yet avenged

What are we waiting for

 

[Parul]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1102064346652463104

 

[Sathya]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1102048920555859969

 

[Bharath]

also - one thing that went under the radar..
A lot of cleansing is happening in Kashmir in this cloak of "replying to Pak"..Mehbooba Mufti was crying about the ban on Jameet e Islami but no one even knew that news..

 

[Bharath]

Oh! I also always hope that I am wrong and my thinking has always been too simplistic. I am a simpleton after all.

I am not sure if this was sarcastic - I only meant we all have our own theories on what happened - what may have happened. I hope that what you are thinking is wrong althought I dont rule out the possibility of that happening. thats all.