Sirs, as I said its a theory, that is offering the simplest explanation for the miss. Kindly go through the following analysis, I'm quoting the relevant information:
India’s strike on Balakot: a very precise miss? | The Strategist
Sir, this video shows a 250lbs (110kg) GBU-39/B Small Diameter Bomb-I (penetration version), not a 2000lbs (1000kg) munition fitted with SPICE-2000 SOW kit. This particular version of the SDB-I comes with only 36lbs (16kg) of AFX-757 enhanced blast insensitive explosive. For comparison of destruction scales, note that:
- a 2000lbs general-purpose bomb like Mk-84 has 429kg of explosives
- a 2000lbs "bunker-buster" bomb like BLU-109 has 240kg of explosives
- a 2000lbs alleged "penetrator" in service with the IAF has 70-80kg of explosives (as claimed by Sameer Joshi)
- a 250lbs GBU-39/B SDB-I has 16kg of explosives
Kindly try to picture only the shockwave generated by 3x80kg = 240kg of explosives going off in the eastern quadrant of a 20x20m civilian non-hardened structure, as compared to the shockwave generated by the 16kg of explosives in the SDB video you shared. If I'm not wrong, that is 5x greater than that of a single "penetrator" and 15x greater than that of 3x "penetrators" used, as alleged by Sameer Joshi.
Sir, I assure you, a shockwave that can kill humans within a few hundred meters has enough overpressure to collapse the walls within 6 meters of the impact point (distance of the 'holes' from the boundary of the 'hostel').
This is a pretty interesting method of bomb damage assessment. I find it particularly interesting that a shockwave can have enough overpressure to disable most phones, but doesn't manages to damage the structure AT ALL.
Sir, infrared satellite imagery indicates three circular areas, each roughly 30 metres in diameter, in which vegetation disappeared in the two days either side of the strike and which are consistent with explosive impact sites. The craters appeared on the night IAF struck Balakot. Kindly see the following GIF, and the corresponding analysis:
Were India’s airstrikes in Pakistan a strategy for public approval? | The Strategist
Perhaps 'students' were trained how to fake airstrikes in real-time.
Glad to know your point of view. There is nothing wrong with sticking to official claims.
Sir, could I get any official information for the basis of this claim that IAF recieved only the penetrator variant of SPICE?
Sir it appears that the figment of imagination has been reported by multiple thrid-party analysts, belonging to PlanetLabs, Reuters, ASPI, DFRLabs and ESI. Shouldn't the GoI take any action against these entities for spreading misinformation against India?
Sir, I'm afraid that you are undermining Pakistan's recently introduced next-generation EMALS (Emergency Manually Assisted Lugging System).