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That's not my narrative. It's a few Pakistani members here extrapolating from all those open source photographs , ISPR handouts and their "deep analysis "of the events of 26th & 27 th Feb.
It makes no sense for us to deliberately miss terror infrastructure since a lot of planning and risks are associated with such a strike.

In the supposed targeted building, the 3 neat holes falling in a line seem to be too unrealistic to be entry points. I'm also not sure how do we clearly negate the Pak explanation (and of others too) of all missiles being recovered from the body of Abhinandan's Mig-21.
 
That's not my narrative. It's a few Pakistani members here extrapolating from all those open source photographs , ISPR handouts and their "deep analysis "of the events of 26th & 27 th Feb.
First to hide their F16 loss peddled downing Su30 as both were dual seaters and now this both deliberately missing to hide their own incompetence
 
In any air battle, thye aim of the battle has to be defined and achieved. We do many things like air sweeps. This is done to lure out enemy fightersw and engage them to shoot them down. Then we have interdiction, in which we have a strike group which may or may not be escorted by fighters.
on 27th feb, what we faced waqs a strike package with escorts. You win the battle the moment you make the strike drop its load at places other than intended and abort the mission. You may or may not shoot down any aircraft in the process. What IAF did on 27th was that it made the strike aircraft dump their loads in hurry and exit asap to avoid being shot down. IAF in the process managed to bring down a F-16 while losing one of its own Mig-21Bison.
If we go by the true rules of air battles, It was a clear victory for IAF and a complete failure of PAF whichever way you look at it and you can take it to any forum except PDF and ask those who have actually flown fighters and know about air battle tactics.
IAF achieved its aim on 26th, PAF failed to achieve its aim on 27th.
 
There is none officially, only from sources. AFAIK, all we have done is bought 100 Spice kits to date. So it's quite unlikely we are using the kits on general purpose bombs.
Each costs as much as $400,000-$500,000, so you can expect it to be used against high value targets only, and on land those are mostly HQs. Otoh, a JDAM-ER costs less than 10% of the Spice.
Well since there is no official claim for the "penetrator" version, and given that you don't indulge in speculation, I'd say we drop the penetrator theory, specially when it arose after nearly a week of the strikes when the first satellite imagery came out.
And we only bought a handful of Popeyes as well.
Glad that you mentioned the Popeye/Crystal Maze. There is also some speculation that they were to be used to "provide video and bring down the buildings". I fail to comprehend how SPICE (which shares the TV/IIR seeker of Popeye), could not deliver the same results. IAF didn't have enough time to maintain LoS with whatever SOWs it could launch, so there was no possibility of retaining data-link for video or man-in-the-loop guidance to begin with. Secondly, the warhead is reportedly 150lbs (80kg), the same as in the alleged "penetrators".
Why is there a need to take action on opinions?
Btw, Spice comes in at an angle of 80 deg. It's unlikely to have the flight path as mentioned by all these "analysts".
Rightly said.
As far as I know, the impact angle has to be specified while generating the mission profile. I've seen videos of it hitting targets at angles ranging from 30 to 90 degrees. Here's a nice video from Rafael:

You know what is the best part of Doval Modi government new strategy is?
Pakistani Denials.😁😁
Why? We keep hitting Pakistan like stray dog and you people don't even squeal so no country in the world cares and we freely hit you at our choice..😁
Keep denying and gag families who have lost their sons working for rougue army which doesn't even acknowledge their shahadat that's best for us. Keep counting body bags...
Well if this strategy helps you sleep better at night, I'm happy for you. India is truly blessed to have an adversary who is arguably the best at covering up offensive strikes. From planting fake bomb craters in Balakot, to making the bodies disappear and changing the roofs by sunrise, to fooling the Americans regarding loss of an F-16, to hiding further losses of F-16s and destruction at Tarbela, to covering up blasts in hospitals...there is truly no parallel.

Yeah I know the 'simplest' explanation of the miss very well. What he fails to explain is that when bombs are dropped they are supposed to 'detonate' on the GPS location identified. They don't keep flying on and have terminal detonation at some other place. Even if elevation data had been entered wrong (BS since we have worked with satellite locaitons for decades), the bombs would have terminated at whatever elevation they found themselves in at that location. Example.

a) You feed in coordinates x, y . Instead of reaching x. y at 10 feet the bombs reach x, y at 15 feet. It will still detonate at 15 feet- it will not continue gliding to 200 meters away and terminate over there. This is a failsafe.

2) The shockwave kill shows the extreme skill of our military planners. If you don't have those skill sets that is generally your weakness.
Sir, it is your personal assumption that somehow PGMs keep track of the targets in microseconds and do not arm the warhead until they match exactly. I would recommend reading up on fuzing mechanisms and arming systems. Even nuclear weapons don't have that many arming stages.
I hope you can calculate the speed at which SOWs are moving prior to hitting the target vs. the window of time needed to identify the error and arm the warhead. There are countless examples of PGMs missing their targets.
However I would love to see some documentation on the exact arming mechanism of SPICE that you described.

ISRO launched said planetlabs sats so we know what their capabilities are. The analysis of this damage needed a SAR capability not some MP camera.

Sir, it depends on the resolution of the said SAR asset. AFAIK, the best SAR satellite in service with ISRO has a 50cm resolution. I don't see how a SAR satellite can show some sort of bomb damage invisible to an optical satellite.

You're not getting what he's trying to convey. For the past 2 months or more, ever since he debuted here, he's been elaborating on the ISPR line of argument - that the IAF & consequently the GoI never wanted any collateral damage but merely wanted to send a message across to Pakistan. What he's hinting at when he says that the wrong co ordinates were fed was they weren't done unintentionally but intentionally.
He's claiming a deliberate miss. Please go thru his posts again.
The ISPR narrative is as follows -

- 26th Feb .Balakote. IAF fires into the trees and kills a crow & destroys a few trees. The Deterrent claims IAF deliberately fed in co ordinates into the guidance system of the SoW, so as to be a shot over the bow.

27th Feb. LoC. PAF deliberately drops SoW into the compounds of our Brigade IA HQ without fuses, to send a message. In the dogfight which followed they shot 1 MKI & 1 MiG 21 & took 1 PoW. Initially the report by Gafool was 2-3 Indian pilots taken PoW. Here, The Deterrent concedes PAF may have lost a Mirage - III or a F-16, but mostly a Mirage. The rest of the narrative is similar to ISPR.

Check with him.

Sir, I'm afraid that you misunderstood my current posts. That was my initial conclusion (in March) that IAF missed on purpose, since I was baffled by SPICE missing its intended target. When the ASPI's analysis (India’s strike on Balakot: a very precise miss? | The Strategist) came out, it became apparent that there was a systematic targeting error made in the process of computing the flight profile, since all SPICE-2000s missed by similar distances which can be mapped back to an identical elevation error. Also, IAF could have bombed the eastern side of the hill, which was much convenient and safer, if it intended to miss on purpose.

As far as the ISPR is concerned, they stated that PAF 'thwarted' the IAF strike, which is not true.
 
In any air battle, thye aim of the battle has to be defined and achieved. We do many things like air sweeps. This is done to lure out enemy fightersw and engage them to shoot them down. Then we have interdiction, in which we have a strike group which may or may not be escorted by fighters.
on 27th feb, what we faced waqs a strike package with escorts. You win the battle the moment you make the strike drop its load at places other than intended and abort the mission. You may or may not shoot down any aircraft in the process. What IAF did on 27th was that it made the strike aircraft dump their loads in hurry and exit asap to avoid being shot down. IAF in the process managed to bring down a F-16 while losing one of its own Mig-21Bison.
If we go by the true rules of air battles, It was a clear victory for IAF and a complete failure of PAF whichever way you look at it and you can take it to any forum except PDF and ask those who have actually flown fighters and know about air battle tactics.
IAF achieved its aim on 26th, PAF failed to achieve its aim on 27th.

For the thick ones let me dilute this
1) We planned the 26th, we achieved it !! Objectives, mission brief, mission roles - SEAD ESCORT, DEEP STRIKE, FAC, DCA all 100 %
2) 27th Fine, lets assume the PAF got what it wanted - "A DOMESTIC applause", we got what we needed
a) Acceleration of procurement
b) Training excellence on display ( Mig21 vs F16)
c) Fear over drive in PAK
d) The WINS for the IAF/INDIA are NOT limited to Abhinandan and his kill, the next time PAF feels like flying over,
there will be no next time for them :)
 
@randomradio @Guynextdoor @_Anonymous_ @BlackOpsIndia @Nilgiri @panzerdad
Since we're going in circles, I should summarize my points on why I believe IAF missed its intended target at Balakot:
  • Bomb craters correlating with the damage caused by 2000lbs GP bombs appeared on the night of 26th February, 150-200m off the alleged JeM camp. On-ground reporters, witnesses, low-res infrared satellite imagery from PlanetLabs and high-res optical satellite imagery from ESI have correlated and confirmed this fact.
  • Apart from these craters, there is no observable damage present at the alleged JeM camp correlating with 2000lbs GP bombs. Also neither people/vehicles are visible for moving bodies, nor any repair efforts.
  • There is no evidence of 2000lbs penetration munitions being in service with the IAF.
  • There was no need of employing penetration munitions, given all structures at the target site were civilian and non-hardened. A simple delayed impact fuze on a general purpose bomb would have achieved the same result.
  • There are no points of ingress visible in the 50cm resolution satellite imagery by ESI on any of the structures present at the site. So far a set of collinear 3x rectangular black pixels have been identified on a 20x20m structure's eastern roof joint, which actually are image artifacts.
  • The math of overpressure regarding the alleged penetrators, originating from inside 3.5m deep silos, does not add up. A shockwave with an overpressure large enough to kill dozens of people on different floors and rooms, is enough to collapse the foundations of the said structure. On the contrary, a shockwave with an overpressure not large enough to collapse walls would also not cause any damage to mobile phones.
  • Even if 6000lbs of the alleged penetrative ordinance was dropped on the eastern quadrant of the said structure, it would have blown the eastern part of the structure to smithereens due to employment of at least 500lbs of combined explosives.
  • The fact that the bomb craters (having similar miss distances) can be mapped back to identical elevation error, points to the possibility that a systematic targeting error was made during mission planning. The SPICE-2000 SOWs functioned as programmed.
  • Apart from more range and lack of GPS, Crystal Maze (aka Popeye) has the similar payload and data-linked TV/IIR guidance as SPICE, which wouldn't have provided any additional advantage. On top of that it is a rocket-powered SOW, so it would probably have fared better than SPICE in adverse weather conditions.
 
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For the thick ones let me dilute this
1) We planned the 26th, we achieved it !! Objectives, mission brief, mission roles - SEAD ESCORT, DEEP STRIKE, FAC, DCA all 100 %
2) 27th Fine, lets assume the PAF got what it wanted - "A DOMESTIC applause", we got what we needed
a) Acceleration of procurement
b) Training excellence on display ( Mig21 vs F16)
c) Fear over drive in PAK
d) The WINS for the IAF/INDIA are NOT limited to Abhinandan and his kill, the next time PAF feels like flying over,
there will be no next time for them :)
IAF may have struggled at the tactical level, but the lessons learned and strategic implications are far greater. Not only India has forced Pakistan into taking decisive action against militancy and insurgency, it has also identified key weaknesses in the IAF. Overall, the entire episode turned out to be in India's favor. Defense enthusiasts should not be bothered by the optics or perception war.
 
@randomradio @Guynextdoor @_Anonymous_ @BlackOpsIndia @Nilgiri @panzerdad
Since we're going in circles, I should summarize my points on why I believe IAF missed its intended target at Balakot:
  • Bomb craters correlating with the damage caused by 2000lbs GP bombs appeared on the night of 26th February, 150-200m off the alleged JeM camp. On-ground reporters, witnesses, low-res infrared satellite imagery from PlanetLabs and high-res optical satellite imagery from ESI have confirmed this fact.
  • Apart from these craters, there is no observable damage present at the alleged JeM camp correlating with 2000lbs GP bombs. Also neither people/vehicles are visible for moving bodies, nor any repair efforts.
  • There is no evidence of 2000lbs penetration munitions being in service with the IAF.
  • There was no need of employing penetration munitions, given all structures at the target site were civilian and non-hardened. A simple delayed impact fuze on a general purpose bomb would have achieved the same result.
  • There are no points of ingress visible in the 50cm resolution satellite imagery by ESI on any of the structures present at the site. So far a set of collinear 3x rectangular black pixels have been identified on a 20x20m structure's roof, which actually are image artifacts.
  • The math of overpressure regarding the alleged penetrators, originating from inside 3.5m deep silos, does not add up. A shockwave with an overpressure large enough to kill dozens of people on different floors and rooms, is enough to collapse the foundations of the said structure. On the contrary, a shockwave with an overpressure not large enough to collapse walls would also not cause any damage to mobile phones.
  • Even if 6000lbs of the alleged penetrative ordinance was dropped on the eastern quadrant of the said structure, it would have blown the eastern part of the structure to smithereens due to employment of at least 500lbs of combined explosives.
  • The fact that the bomb craters (having similar miss distances) can be mapped back to identical elevation error, points to the possibility that a systematic targeting error was made during mission planning. The SPICE-2000 SOWs functioned as programmed.
  • Apart from more range and lack of GPS, Crystal Maze (aka Popeye) has the similar payload and data-linked TV/IIR guidance as SPICE, which wouldn't have provided any additional advantage. On top of that it is a rocket-powered SOW, so it would probably have fared better than SPICE in adverse weather conditions.
Technical jargon apart a few points -

The FS Mr Gokhale, on the morning of 26th Feb, mentioned 3 sites being targeted. I wonder how did the focus end up only on Balakote. There's been no mention from either side of the other two sites.

The other point being purely circumstantial. It took the ISPR / PA a full month to take international journalists to the site in what was a hurried tour - a fact brought on record by many journalists especially from Reuters.
 
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Technical jargon apart a few points -
Sir, I encourage you to study this technical jargon in depth. You may be able to find something in support of the Indian narrative.

The FS Mr Gokhale, on the morning of 26th Feb, mentioned 3 sites being targeted. I wonder how did the focus end up only on Balakote. There's been no mention from either side of the other two sites.
I'm as clueless as you about the other two sites. One notable observation is that Pakistan acknowledged IAF's airspace violation and 'releasing payloads in a hurry' at Balakot even before FS Gokhale's statement came out.

The other point being purely circumstantial. It took the ISPR / PA a full month to take international journalists to the site in what was a hurried tour - a fact on record by many journalists especially from Reuters.
As I said before, it is the weakest argument in trying to prove that the strikes hit something. I also offered an explanation, that Pakistan's narrative was that there was no JeM camp. If journalists took photos and matched them with Indian intel dossier photos, JeM camp would have been confirmed.
OTOH, if I recall correctly, Indian military didn't show PAF's bomb craters to anyone at all.
 
For the thick ones let me dilute this
1) We planned the 26th, we achieved it !! Objectives, mission brief, mission roles - SEAD ESCORT, DEEP STRIKE, FAC, DCA all 100 %
2) 27th Fine, lets assume the PAF got what it wanted - "A DOMESTIC applause", we got what we needed
a) Acceleration of procurement
b) Training excellence on display ( Mig21 vs F16)
c) Fear over drive in PAK
d) The WINS for the IAF/INDIA are NOT limited to Abhinandan and his kill, the next time PAF feels like flying over,
there will be no next time for them :)
So you do say that our Mig-21 fared better than their F-16. Even then it is all about one man, and does not speak for all Mig-21 pilots - am i right?
 
IAF may have struggled at the tactical level, but the lessons learned and strategic implications are far greater. Not only India has forced Pakistan into taking decisive action against militancy and insurgency, it has also identified key weaknesses in the IAF. Overall, the entire episode turned out to be in India's favor. Defense enthusiasts should not be bothered by the optics or perception war.
Not yet clear about the long-term decisiveness. We need to see how things pan put once Pak economy gets better.
 
Technical jargon apart a few points -

The FS Mr Gokhale, on the morning of 26th Feb, mentioned 3 sites being targeted. I wonder how did the focus end up only on Balakote. There's been no mention from either side of the other two sites.

The other point being purely circumstantial. It took the ISPR / PA a full month to take international journalists to the site in what was a hurried tour - a fact brought on record by many journalists especially from Reuters.


Even the journos were not allowed to go to the hostel areas, they were just shown the madrassa.
 
There was no need of employing penetration munitions, given all structures at the target site were civilian and non-hardened. A simple delayed impact fuze on a general purpose bomb would have achieved the same result.
I asked the same question, @panzerdad can you elaborate why was SPICE 2000 needed? Or it was even used? So far there is no offical statement on this only media but overwhelmingly saying it was used.

I hope this was not floated to keep people occupied in searching for holes when no damage was found, a perfect weapon to conver up but doesn't seem optimal to penetrate a tin roof.

Bomb craters correlating with the damage caused by 2000lbs GP bombs appeared on the night of 26th February, 150-200m off the alleged JeM camp. On-ground reporters, witnesses, low-res infrared satellite imagery from PlanetLabs and high-res optical satellite imagery from ESI have correlated and confirmed this fact.

Those craters are not very visible in ESI high resolution images, however BBC interview with locals and some social media clips of local do show a crater and a damaged house because of shockwave, sadly it also matches with planet labs Near Infrared image.

This begs a question what if it was PAF dropping ordinance to make it look like Indian strike missed? BBC interview with locals tell us that first they heard 4-5 loud bangs and then in few minutes sound of jets overflying. Now IAF didn't go to Balakot and fired it from standoff range so it must be PAF flying over the area. But then sound of bombs were heard first so it could be Indian bombs only.

Almost all accounts are unanimous on 5 bombs being used including the local people, the craters are only 3, where did other two go?

Possible that at least one landed in that building and what we are counting as 3 holes in that pyramid shape roof is actually one entry point taking down good part of roof with it.

There is also one more spot on that building exactly on opposite side if you carefully observe, it could be second entry point.

This is the only scenario where all IAF, Locals, Sat Images, ISPR all are right and are speaking partial truth.
 
So Hassan Siddiqqi was riding on F-16B and he is getting the honors, what about his co rider Haider Shabaz Ali?
Hmm thats the catch ,again caught lying , also first said didnt use F16s , busted and next lie kills attributed to JF17s , these guys boast of winning and change the statements everyday
 
Posted by windjammer on PDF with permission from Kaiser Tufail. Interestingly no mention of 2nd F16B pilot and also Hassan and Nauman flew F16 yet DGISPR , whole PDF said that JF17 had the kills so there goes DGISPR caught lying
Credit given only to Hassan and not the 2nd F16B pilot , why? suspicions @The Deterrent @Arsalan123 @thinkingcap81 @_Anonymous_
@vstol Jockey @randomradio @Nilgiri @panzerdad


so the
F16B had no nav/weapons op and he flew solo ?
Or its time they admit something :)
 
so the
F16B had no nav/weapons op and he flew solo ?
Or its time they admit something :)
And also the reason there was no missing F16 B cz there was an article in Print which said that instead of 13 they had received 14 F16s from Jordan , there were 2 F16Bs and not one , proof- a photo released by PAF when they recieved it shows 2F16Bs in background
 
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