India - Pakistan Standoff 2019

[BlackOpsIndia]

OTOH, if I recall correctly, Indian military didn't show PAF's bomb craters to anyone at all

Image was released almost immediately of a bombed area. Other images are not released.

Today has been a fruitful day, wonder if baba will mention it
@vstolJockey
Putting this post here as a timestamp for me, please dont remove this mods ( its relevant )

Please be our Baba and tell more.

so the
F16B had no nav/weapons op and he flew solo ?
Or its time they admit something

Truth is coming out sir There was a video, how long can they hide it.

 

[Deathstar]

We do not know how they have credited the 'kills' - possibly they mentioned only the C5s that they claim found their target (hence only 2 pilots who actually fired and got a kill), other C5s were just fired for making the MKIs move towards the F-16s lying in ambush.

On PDF one member aeromerix says that only 2 C5s were launched and both hit their targets, while Oscar did not dispute multiple C5 launches (in response to none of my posts there).

Here @The Deterrent talks of the possibility of their Mirage brought down by friendly fire. Perhaps one needs to see radar images to understand how well correlated (in space and time) are the locations (in the video) of the 2nd struck aircraft and the location of the Mirages

I am talking about MiG21 and "Su30" kill which they attributed to JF17s

 

[panzerdad]

I asked the same question, @panzerdad can you elaborate why was SPICE 2000 needed? Or it was even used? So far there is no offical statement on this only media but overwhelmingly saying it was used.

I hope this was not floated to keep people occupied in searching for holes when no damage was found, a perfect weapon to conver up but doesn't seem optimal to penetrate a tin roof.

The SPICE-2000 is not a bomb at all its a 'guidance kit' that is attached to a standard warhead or bomb.
What the SPICE-2000 did was turn a "bomb" into a smart device with the ability to glide in the air and make minor adjustments to precisely hit its target. Looking at the terrain and mission objectives and the possible RETORT, it was the most logical kit !

Additionally the SAAW was the first choice, but either delays or compatibility issues held it up.

 

[BlackOpsIndia]

The SPICE-2000 is not a bomb at all its a 'guidance kit' that is attached to a standard warhead or bomb.
What the SPICE-2000 did was turn a "bomb" into a smart device with the ability to glide in the air and make minor adjustments to precisely hit its target. Looking at the terrain and mission objectives and the possible RETORT, it was the most logical kit !

Additionally the SAAW was the first choice, but either delays or compatibility issues held it up.

I knew that first part, was asking if a penetrator was needed, thanks anyway.

 

[screambowl]

Interestingly no mention of 2nd F16B pilot and also Hassan and Nauman flew F16 yet DGISPR , whole PDF said that JF17 had the kills so there goes DGISPR caught lying

The intruding aircrafts were 3 f16s and we shot one of them down. That's a fact, what possible is either one of the Jf17 far behind LC locked on to Abhinandan and he shot him down. But that's not really important to know who Shot 40 years old mig down, the important is we shot one of their top class fighter down

 

[Guynextdoor]

Well since there is no official claim for the "penetrator" version, and given that you don't indulge in speculation, I'd say we drop the penetrator theory, specially when it arose after nearly a week of the strikes when the first satellite imagery came out.

Glad that you mentioned the Popeye/Crystal Maze. There is also some speculation that they were to be used to "provide video and bring down the buildings". I fail to comprehend how SPICE (which shares the TV/IIR seeker of Popeye), could not deliver the same results. IAF didn't have enough time to maintain LoS with whatever SOWs it could launch, so there was no possibility of retaining data-link for video or man-in-the-loop guidance to begin with. Secondly, the warhead is reportedly 150lbs (80kg), the same as in the alleged "penetrators".

Rightly said.
As far as I know, the impact angle has to be specified while generating the mission profile. I've seen videos of it hitting targets at angles ranging from 30 to 90 degrees. Here's a nice video from Rafael:

Well if this strategy helps you sleep better at night, I'm happy for you. India is truly blessed to have an adversary who is arguably the best at covering up offensive strikes. From planting fake bomb craters in Balakot, to making the bodies disappear and changing the roofs by sunrise, to fooling the Americans regarding loss of an F-16, to hiding further losses of F-16s and destruction at Tarbela, to covering up blasts in hospitals...there is truly no parallel.


Sir, it is your personal assumption that somehow PGMs keep track of the targets in microseconds and do not arm the warhead until they match exactly. I would recommend reading up on fuzing mechanisms and arming systems. Even nuclear weapons don't have that many arming stages.
I hope you can calculate the speed at which SOWs are moving prior to hitting the target vs. the window of time needed to identify the error and arm the warhead. There are countless examples of PGMs missing their targets.
However I would love to see some documentation on the exact arming mechanism of SPICE that you described.


Sir, it depends on the resolution of the said SAR asset. AFAIK, the best SAR satellite in service with ISRO has a 50cm resolution. I don't see how a SAR satellite can show some sort of bomb damage invisible to an optical satellite.




Sir, I'm afraid that you misunderstood my current posts. That was my initial conclusion (in March) that IAF missed on purpose, since I was baffled by SPICE missing its intended target. When the ASPI's analysis (India’s strike on Balakot: a very precise miss? | The Strategist) came out, it became apparent that there was a systematic targeting error made in the process of computing the flight profile, since all SPICE-2000s missed by similar distances which can be mapped back to an identical elevation error. Also, IAF could have bombed the eastern side of the hill, which was much convenient and safer, if it intended to miss on purpose.

As far as the ISPR is concerned, they stated that PAF 'thwarted' the IAF strike, which is not true.

@randomradio what the hell are you talking about? Vishnu Som has confirmed it was penetrator version.

 

[panzerdad]

I knew that first part, was asking if a penetrator was needed, thanks anyway.

Apologies my friend, let me address that !

Yes why the penetration munition
a) Underground structures and their elimination IF ANY
b) Local asset on ground MIGHT have provided information indicating structural stability, non indicative in SAT images
c) Lastly, Tunneling IF any, since earlier INTEL has shown routes, escape routes and any way of smuggling the debris out
including bodies
Hope that "levels" why ?

 

[vstol Jockey]

Posted by windjammer on PDF with permission from Kaiser Tufail. Interestingly no mention of 2nd F16B pilot and also Hassan and Nauman flew F16 yet DGISPR , whole PDF said that JF17 had the kills so there goes DGISPR caught lying
Credit given only to Hassan and not the 2nd F16B pilot , why? suspicions @The Deterrent @Arsalan123 @thinkingcap81 @_Anonymous_
@vstol Jockey @randomradio @Nilgiri @panzerdad

So Hassan Siddiqqi was riding on F-16B and he is getting the honors, what about his co rider Haider Shabaz Ali?

Please read my earlier posts. I had specifically mentioned these names and also the fate they met. Now ISPR has come out with the half truth. They have accounted for only two AMRAAMs, one which we recovered and the other which brought down WC Abhi, they have not accepted other 4-5 AMRAAMs fired by other dodos flying F-16s.
JF-17 does not have the radar range to target any aircraft beyond 70 kms. SU-30MKIs and the Mig-21 Bisons never came within 70 kms of the JF-17s.

 

[panzerdad]

Please be our Baba and tell more.

You break my heart with the ref, tobah skin crawls
Lets wait this out, @vstoljockey will confirm with his sources, but he wont speak on it,
neither will i, and before someone spins this, no we did not kill anyone

 

[The Deterrent]

Posted by windjammer on PDF with permission from Kaiser Tufail. Interestingly no mention of 2nd F16B pilot and also Hassan and Nauman flew F16 yet DGISPR , whole PDF said that JF17 had the kills so there goes DGISPR caught lying
Credit given only to Hassan and not the 2nd F16B pilot , why? suspicions @The Deterrent @Arsalan123 @thinkingcap81 @_Anonymous_
@vstol Jockey @randomradio @Nilgiri @panzerdad

Sir, as explained by Kaiser Tufail, PA mistakenly feared retribution from the US for usage of F-16s against India, while PAF was apparently quite clear on the terms and conditions. After all, the US gave the Block-52s as a deterrent against India. Therefore PA tried to cover up the use of F-16s and credited the kills to JF-17s. After PAF schooled PA regarding the said T&Cs, the statement was changed the next day to 'pick a jet of your choice'.

I hope this was not floated to keep people occupied in searching for holes when no damage was found, a perfect weapon to conver up but doesn't seem optimal to penetrate a tin roof.

Almost all accounts are unanimous on 5 bombs being used including the local people, the craters are only 3, where did other two go?
Possible that at least one landed in that building and what we are counting as 3 holes in that pyramid shape roof is actually one entry point taking down good part of roof with it.
There is also one more spot on that building exactly on opposite side if you carefully observe, it could be second entry point.
This is the only scenario where all IAF, Locals, Sat Images, ISPR all are right and are speaking partial truth.

Actually the perfect weapon would be SPICE-250, had it been in IAF's arsenal. The only scenario in which the evidence at Balakot justifies the Indian narrative, is that India used an unknown amount of INERT SPICE-250 SOWs against some of the structures, while also dropping some LIVE SPICE-2000s against other structures which missed intentionally/unintentionally.

This begs a question what if it was PAF dropping ordinance to make it look like Indian strike missed? BBC interview with locals tell us that first they heard 4-5 loud bangs and then in few minutes sound of jets overflying. Now IAF didn't go to Balakot and fired it from standoff range so it must be PAF flying over the area. But then sound of bombs were heard first so it could be Indian bombs only.

Sir, I hope you realize that your theory would make PAF the most quickly responding air force in world's history.
Because apparently, PAF had sent aircrafts armed with 2000lbs PGMs to INTERCEPT IAF aircrafts over LoC...
figured out where the tiny SOWs were headed...
followed them and arrived over Balakot...
carried out pronto Bomb Damage Assessment...
precisely bombed the adjacent area to fake the missed trajectory...
at EXACTLY the same time IAF's SOWs struck Balakot.

Won't that make PAF better than IAF?

And also the reason there was no missing F16 B cz there was an article in Print which said that instead of 13 they had received 14 F16s from Jordan , there were 2 F16Bs and not one , proof- a photo released by PAF when they recieved it shows 2F16Bs in background

Or perhaps Pakistan lied about its F-16 inventory for FIVE years, about a B/D-model...because Pakistan had anticipated that PAF will lose PRECISELY a B/D-model in the future, over the EXACT area of Kashmir.
PAF actually received 9 F-16As and 4 F-16Bs from Jordan, you are welcome to check SIPRI/F-16.net records.

Here @The Deterrent talks of the possibility of their Mirage brought down by friendly fire. Perhaps one needs to see radar images to understand how well correlated (in space and time) are the locations (in the video) of the 2nd struck aircraft and the location of the Mirages

The IAF didn't label any of the aircrafts it showed in the radar images as a Mirage.

Image was released almost immediately of a bombed area. Other images are not released.

I seem to have missed that image (of PAF's SOW damage on Indian soil), can you kindly refer me to it again?

 

[thinkingcap81]

I highly doubt that American public even knows who DGISPR is ,heck most of the Indians didnt know who he was ,so reason by PDF is absurd
Probably they violated RoEs and went for a prized kill of Su30 and got ambushed by MiG
And also didn't they officially attribute kills to JF17???

I'm not speaking about the intentions of PAF on 27th. DGISPR is not speaking with the American public, he needs to address the Pentagon.

Now that it is accepted that F-16s fired C5s even though unprovoked (beyond alleged lock-ons), why did DGISPR not have an adequate predetermined response regarding use of F-16s during the media briefing? Since F-16s were cleared to release BVRs then the same should have been stated without any ambiguity.

Maybe JF-17 did not even fire as told by @vstol Jockey.

 

[vstol Jockey]

I'm not speaking about the intentions of PAF on 27th. DGISPR is not speaking with the American public, he needs to address the Pentagon.

Now that it is accepted that F-16s fired C5s even though unprovoked (beyond alleged lock-ons), why did DGISPR not have an adequate predetermined response regarding use of F-16s during the media briefing? Since F-16s were cleared to release BVRs then the same should have been stated without any ambiguity.

Maybe JF-17 did not even fire as told by @vstol Jockey.

IAF sent in Mig-21Bisons as our CAP was outnumbered. But F-16s chose to fire C5s from Dmax, Why??? Does this not prove my point that their aim was to bring down atleast one SU-30MKI and bomb our army positions? Do you guys still want to debate 27th Feb and its results?

 

[Guynextdoor]

Please read my earlier posts. I had specifically mentioned these names and also the fate they met. Now ISPR has come out with the half truth. They have accounted for only two AMRAAMs, one which we recovered and the other which brought down WC Abhi, they have not accepted other 4-5 AMRAAMs fired by other dodos flying F-16s.
JF-17 does not have the radar range to target any aircraft beyond 70 kms. SU-30MKIs and the Mig-21 Bisons never came within 70 kms of the JF-17s.

So now they agree that F 16 participated and AMRAAM were fired. They were mocing IAF for showing AMRAAM parts.

 

[thinkingcap81]

Sir, as explained by Kaiser Tufail, PA mistakenly feared retribution from the US for usage of F-16s against India, while PAF was apparently quite clear on the terms and conditions. After all, the US gave the Block-52s as a deterrent against India. Therefore PA tried to cover up the use of F-16s and credited the kills to JF-17s. After PAF schooled PA regarding the said T&Cs, the statement was changed the next day to 'pick a jet of your choice'.

Secondly, AFAIK, kills are usually attributed to the pilot who launches the missile, not the WSO/Navigator. Feel free to correct me.

These two points perhaps explain some queries i have raised, though they are more in-line with the Pak POV.

 

[Guynextdoor]

Sir, as explained by Kaiser Tufail, PA mistakenly feared retribution from the US for usage of F-16s against India, while PAF was apparently quite clear on the terms and conditions. After all, the US gave the Block-52s as a deterrent against India. Therefore PA tried to cover up the use of F-16s and credited the kills to JF-17s. After PAF schooled PA regarding the said T&Cs, the statement was changed the next day to 'pick a jet of your choice'.
Secondly, AFAIK, kills are usually attributed to the pilot who launches the missile, not the WSO/Navigator. Feel free to correct me.


Actually the perfect weapon would be SPICE-250, had it been in IAF's arsenal. The only scenario in which the evidence at Balakot justifies the Indian narrative, is that India used an unknown amount of INERT SPICE-250 SOWs against some of the structures, while also dropping some LIVE SPICE-2000s against other structures which missed intentionally/unintentionally.


Sir, I hope you realize that your theory would make PAF the most quickly responding air force in world's history.
Because apparently, PAF had sent aircrafts armed with 2000lbs PGMs to INTERCEPT IAF aircrafts over LoC...
figured out where the tiny SOWs were headed...
followed them and arrived over Balakot...
carried out pronto Bomb Damage Assessment...
precisely bombed the adjacent area to fake the missed trajectory...
at EXACTLY the same time IAF's SOWs struck Balakot.

Won't that make PAF better than IAF?


Or perhaps Pakistan lied about its F-16 inventory for FIVE years, about a B/D-model...because Pakistan had anticipated that PAF will lose PRECISELY a B/D-model in the future, over the EXACT area of Kashmir.
PAF actually received 9 F-16As and 4 F-16Bs from Jordan, you are welcome to check SIPRI/F-16.net records.


The IAF didn't label any of the aircrafts it showed in the radar images as a Mirage.


I seem to have missed that image (of PAF's SOW damage on Indian soil), can you kindly refer me to it again?

How can they ;mistakenly fear' retribution if they already knew the terms and conditions? PAF lied. They wanted to hide F 16 participation until India showed the AMRAAM parts.

 

[Guynextdoor]

@vstol Jockey @arsalan why do you think PAF accepted the F 16 ? Because the Americans have confirmed in their assesmnet they participated and probably it's gonna be out. Now the question is will PAF accept the F 16 loss.

 

[thinkingcap81]

So now they agree that F 16 participated and AMRAAM were fired. They were mocing IAF for showing AMRAAM parts.

Their mocking later changed to this - showing AMRAAM parts means that it hit a MKI, hence it could be found out so soon. But @Falcon has a counter-explanation.

 

[The Deterrent]

How can they ;mistakenly fear' retribution if they already knew the terms and conditions? PAF lied. They wanted to hide F 16 participation until India showed the AMRAAM parts.

Sir, there is a known rift between PAF and PA on a number of things. DG ISPR comes from the PA. Kaiser Tufail also regretted the dissemination of information by an official belonging to PA instead of PAF. At no ocassion, did PAF release any statement of that kind.

 

[thinkingcap81]

IAF sent in Mig-21Bisons as our CAP was outnumbered. But F-16s chose to fire C5s from Dmax, Why??? Does this not prove my point that their aim was to bring down atleast one SU-30MKI and bomb our army positions? Do you guys still want to debate 27th Feb and its results?

Not sure about bombing our army positions with the intent to cause serious damage (if they had succeeded, retaliation would have been strong), but the MKI targeting appears to be a logical conclusion.

 

[Guynextdoor]

Their mocking later changed to this - showing AMRAAM parts means that it hit a MKI, hence it could be found out so soon. But @Falcon has a counter-explanation.

That's because they're f***ing morons. I mean they change their stands like gaumata ruminates her cud and don't see anything wrong in it.

@arsalan till now...EVERY THING THE IAF SAID IS COMING TRUE. MOST OF WHAT PAF SAID IS COMING FALSE.

a) India said a package of Mirage/ F 16/ JF 17 came in - PAF said no F 16- false
b) India said F 16 engaged and fired AMRAAM- PAF said no- false
c) India said one Mig 21 lost in Pak territory- true
d) India said one F 16- specifically an F 16 B has been lost. You have finally accepted an F 16 B was there. You will also accept that the F 16 B was lost.