India - Pakistan Standoff 2019

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randomradio said:
China's security is not as threatened if India cuts China off from the Arabian Sea as has been made out to believe. They have their own oil supplies and they get quite a lot from Russia as well. And with the Chinese need for all things electric, oil consumption will reduce to barely anything in the long term. So it's a problem for them only in the short term and mid term. The fact is they can get even better access to oil through Central Asia and Iran. CPEC is merely one of many routes into the Indian Ocean.

Also, the bigger threat to China is the USN in their own waters. The US can cut China off from water completely. So India blocking access is a piddly problem for the Chinese.

The reason why two-front war is very, very unlikely is because there is nothing to be achieved by the Chinese by fighting India since it won't help Pakistan anyway. Any Sino-Indian war is going to be a bigger version of Kargil War. And since there is possibility of war going nuclear between India and Pakistan, why will the Chinese risk a nuclear war over nothing?

Pakistan overestimates its importance to the Chinese. If India decides to take POJK, the Chinese are only going to pay lip service to Pakistan.
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I feel that they will never allow India to annex our Kashmir.their infrastructure and money, everything will be wasted.
 
Paro said:
Ready to change CPEC name, says Chinese envoy to India
Though the retracted the envoys statement later it was an indication. They were testing the waters.
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Yes I remember this incident but I think India rejected Chinese invitation to join cpec three times so I think in this situation,they are more worried about their only alternative route.i don't think that China trust russia.china only trust Russia when it comes to matters related to America and technology transfer.what they wanted is a route and we provided it so it's very difficult for them to sell cpec and join India.you guys already face doklam incident so there is still hostile behavior.

_Anonymous_ said:
We shall make the Chinese an offer they can't refuse.
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What if we make offer to china? (:
 
Arsalan123 said:
Yes I remember this incident but I think India rejected Chinese invitation to join cpec three times so I think in this situation,they are more worried about their only alternative route.i don't think that China trust russia.china only trust Russia when it comes to matters related to America and technology transfer.what they wanted is a route and we provided it so it's very difficult for them to sell cpec and join India.you guys already face doklam incident so there is still hostile behavior.
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The indo-Sino border issue will be initiated end of this year. Mostly will be completely demarcated are solved by 2024 end of Modi's term.

Arsalan123 said:
What if we make offer to china? :)
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What can Pakistan offer china that India cant? There is the Trade option with India that china will definitely loose if it doesn’t accept Indian terms anyway.
 
lcafanboy said:
Are you sure China has only one option to reach Arabian sea?
If all border disputes between India and China are settled they would easily get access to Arabian sea for trade via India and without spending any money along with huge market. Same thing for us we get access to their market as well as entry into Japan, south Korea, Taiwan, etc. Via land and Chinese coastal route. So chill China doesn't need Pakistan to access Arabian sea.

And yes remember this is power game of chess between 2 powerful nation where PAWNS like Pakistan are expendable. India and China both will have area of influence and both will test and challenge each other and will settle once fully aware that this is my domain and that is theirs and no conflict will result in thereafter since both know each other's strength.
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Pawns? Looks like you have learned nothing from doklam.are you really comparing India with China? India providing services to china in near future looks funny.

Falcon said:
My counter. Do you think that China gains anything in intervening actively on Pakistan's side, knowing fully well that immediate and unhindered support will come from US, UK, France, Israel and Russia? Do not fall in the trap that the Pakistani members elsewhere tend to fall into - that of Russia moving away from India or reverse. S-400? Why do you think US is still figuring out how to force India to abandon the deal? Because there is another deal on plates for US.

You are missing out the value Economics and Commerce have. Historically too, it was always about Economics now too, it is about the same. Markets and resources have been the reason for wars always. And here, China Inc is chugging along just fine. It will not do anything to put that into jeopardy. China learns from its history. And history has always shown China being over run by those who may appear at odds with each other in interests (Russia-US-UK-France-Netherlands-Japan-Germany in 1800s).




You should really engage with @Nilgiri he will shed light on the economics (he has them at the fingertips at any given moment, I shall have to collate the material).

What China has in Pakistan, the costs have been recovered in terms of long term loans at higher than normal interest rates, market access and of course, security (the 'check' on spread of radical Islamism into Xinjiang for now) Your troops are fighting their wars in your Tribal areas. That is smart economics my dear friend.
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So basically you are also saying the same thing as other members that China will make a deal with India and allow India to attack pakistani Kashmir? You are saying it based on powerful economy of both India and china.i am sure that Israel will help you but I am not sure that france,Russia and uk will help.i think you are very optimistic.so basically no body will help us! I think this is what you want to say right?
 
Paro said:
The indo-Sino border issue will be initiated end of this year. Mostly will be completely demarcated are solved by 2024 end of Modi's term.


What can Pakistan offer china that India cant? There is the Trade option with India that china will definitely loose if it doesn’t accept Indian terms anyway.
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I think you guys think China as friend and you are very optimistic about Chinese intentions but China is much closer to Pakistan.lets see!
 
Arsalan123 said:
I think you guys think China as friend and you are very optimistic about Chinese intentions but China is much closer to Pakistan.lets see!
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I think you've either misread or misunderstood the general thrust of all the posts of the Indian members here. Have a few naans & chai. Take a few deep breaths and re read all that members here have posted y'day & today.
 
metaphysician said:
they can pass through india also . this is a long term plan of china , they might reconsider so called cpec from gwadar too as and when things get worse in pakistan and they are getting day by day , after all who wants to invest money or for that matter give loan to a country whose existence is totally uncertain , pakistan has to get dismantled sooner or later . who would not want to do business and become friend with the market of more than 1.3 billion people ( compare it with bankrupt pakistan and pakistanis ) . and as said above in earlier posts , long term agreement and settlement of disputes with china is also possible , when two businessmen sit together , everything and anything is possible .
this can happen for sure and take the screen shot too .
one thing more , this time pakistan army will have it once for all i guess , and the world will see the coward face of pakistani army generals like they saw during 1971 . . no first use ko ghante pe rakhta hai koi .
and i am not sentimental and patriotic while writing the above mentioned .
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Why become so friendly for China? Yesterday you guys were chanting *censored* and now talking about giving access to china.wow! Now tell me who is accepting demands of China? You rejected cpec three times and you did doklam.you guys fought a war.do you really think China thinks of you as good friend? Where are you living? China has already invested billions inside pakistan.they will make sure that their investment will remain safe.why reminding 71 Everytime? This is 2019.
 
Arsalan123 said:
I feel that they will never allow India to annex our Kashmir.their infrastructure and money, everything will be wasted.
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Nothing will be wasted. China will still continue to own and operate their investments as normal. Pretty much all their investments will be paid for over the next few years, and whatever they have invested is in Pakistan, not POJK. For example, what can India do about Gwadar or power plants or railway lines that are all in Pakistan?

All the stuff they had planned to invest in POJK have not been done either. The only thing that's been done there is the work on the highway, which is peanuts.
 
Arsalan123 said:
Why become so friendly for China? Yesterday you guys were chanting *censored* and now talking about giving access to china.wow! Now tell me who is accepting demands of China? You rejected cpec three times and you did doklam.you guys fought a war.do you really think China thinks of you as good friend? Where are you living? China has already invested billions inside pakistan.they will make sure that their investment will remain safe.why reminding 71 Everytime? This is 2019.
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Doesn't look like you've understood.
 
suryakiran said:
@Arsalan123

The prism you are using is very narrow. Try looking at it from China's perspective.

a. Help Pakistan logistically
This will ensure it provides Pakistan with all material support it requires to the extent, that, it is not detrimental to its own state secrets. Here, India will keep cribbing but not directly engage China. China will keep saying its business. Pakistan will need to now use the equipment provided.

b. Help Pakistan directly
It enters the conflict, thereby doing the following. Business at risk with India and India officially designates China an enemy state. In this scenario, if China aligns itself in what is as good as a defence pact, what do you think will be the Indian reaction?

Till date all military exercises have been increasing co-ordination between the IN, USN and JSN. The RAN is now joining the band wagon. But, India has avoided getting into a formal strategic alignment with these countries. A defence pact between US, Japan and India is not something the Chinese can take on. Not now, not 50 years in the future. This will include Australia and Vietnam going forward. Veritably, an Asian NATO.

Will China risk this for a Pakistan which is at best, a barely functioning state, being propped up economically by the GCC and China? An Asian NATO is the start of the bottling up of China. Whereas, a rival but non-aligned and an economic partner India is the best case scenario for the Chinese.

Think honestly and realistically. What will China do?
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Very well written.honestly I feel that China cares about pakistan.china always stand with pakistan.we have seen enough diplomatic support from china.now all you have written above can be possible if China forgets war against India? China have to answer their people if they allign with india.62 war was a simple misunderstanding but it was a war.china thinks India as enemy and not friend.china has provided a path for pakistan to slightly improve it's relations with Russia.china initiated cpec through our kashmir.if I think about your logic,a question comes in my mind.why xi didn't visit India to launch cpec from India? China can easily reach to warm ports through India but in reality,it initiated project and invested billion inside pakistan.now at this stage,why China change its policy and abandon Kashmir so that India annexes Kashmir and provide the same path again to china? It looks terrible from Chinese point of view.let us suppose america,Ally of India,in South China sea.ally of America,India in Pakistani kashmir.this will be like suicide for China.this is not practically possible.i know you are large economy and they are too but due to only war between India and China,trust is very little.
 
fyodor said:
You are not getting the point. Who says we have to destroy CPEC?

In any investment, when things start going south you look to sell the "non-performing asset" and cut your looses.
The non-performing asset here is Pakistan if India decides to go to war. China will not invest ~$100 billion to fight a war with India for a mere ~$50 billion they have invested in CPEC.

They have pockets deep enough to handle that loss. And what's more: India will ask China that they their investments in GB will not be touched. Instead, India is ready to divert the route which goes from GB onwards to Balochistan and connect the GB link to Gujarat and then the Arabian Sea. India can easily propose a 30% investment from its own pocket. This will alleviate China's concern of access to Arabian Sea & its "loss" in CPEC.

Frankly, China has lot more to gain from India and Indian markets then what Pakistan can provide to it. Geopolitics is cold and the idiots on the "other" forum don't understand these subtleties.
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I think there is only one issue between China and India and the issue is boundary problem and trust issue.
 
Arsalan123 said:
Very well written.honestly I feel that China cares about pakistan.china always stand with pakistan.we have seen enough diplomatic support from china.now all you have written above can be possible if China forgets war against India? China have to answer their people if they allign with india.62 war was a simple misunderstanding but it was a war.china thinks India as enemy and not friend.china has provided a path for pakistan to slightly improve it's relations with Russia.china initiated cpec through our kashmir.if I think about your logic,a question comes in my mind.why xi didn't visit India to launch cpec from India? China can easily reach to warm ports through India but in reality,it initiated project and invested billion inside pakistan.now at this stage,why China change its policy and abandon Kashmir so that India annexes Kashmir and provide the same path again to china? It looks terrible from Chinese point of view.let us suppose america,Ally of India,in South China sea.ally of America,India in Pakistani kashmir.this will be like suicide for China.this is not practically possible.i know you are large economy and they are too but due to only war between India and China,trust is very little.
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I will say simple answer to your questions
Chinese want to colonize Pakistani land through loans and defaults and soon will establish s naval base at Gwadar
In short 30-40billion dollars in exchange for Gwadar naval base , Pakistan will get no development or dollars at all.
Go read economic analysis of CPEC which has become next Kashmir of Pakistan lol done by a guy in PDF , he shows reality to you.
Btw Kaptaan opposed CPEC before and still reluctant to go forward
 
Ashutosh said:
Words... and everything... but pray what are you trying to say ? I am not fluent in Gibberish.
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It means the GoI has after 70 odd years shed their pussilanimity, something that was responsible for among other reasons - the Hindu growth rate, live & let live, appeasement Nehru style like the IWT & Indian silence on Tibet without safeguarding our borders, what's yours is yours and mine, mine philosophy & has finally decided to live up to the unanimously passed resolution in Parliament in the mid 90's that PoJK is a sovereign Indian territory under Pakistani occupation and that it's liberation is an article of faith with us.

Accordingly, all such steps needed to facilitate such an action is to be undertaken / is being undertaken in the realms of military, diplomacy, internal politics, finance, etc.
 
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