Excellent insights by
@DivineHeretic as usual.
Just to meddle around a bit.
Speculative points:
1. The GoI, in it's assessment, expected the GoP and Pakistani Military to deny a strike. Hence, there was no revision of ROEs which prohibited any of own Military Fixed Wing aircraft from moving into LC buffer zone as also prohibited engaging targets across the LC. But given the magnitude of success perhaps, it became difficult for both GoP and Pakistan Military to deny the strike, as those affected were not going to allow a non-response to go unchallenged. Faced with a difficult choice, Pakistan did what it does best - spin a yarn.
2. I have my doubts about anyone in IAF being under the impression that the PAF will not try and down the IAF aircrafts by firing across LC. However, this view is quite pervasive in the general public and I am quite amused to note this. Had that been the case, jammers would not have been deployed on own side extensively as has been the case. The inherent antithesis in the assertion of 'unexpected BVRAAM' and jammer usage by own aircraft should have been a clear pointer.
3. The only thing that went wrong that day was the Wg Cdr Abhinandan, VrC episode. He got away because of shooting down a F-16 (confirmed from AWACS and IADS 'captures') and also because of being in public eye.
4. The shoot down of own Mi-17 indicated what is actually an issue that affects all armed forces the world over - mediocrity and non-adherence to SOPs. The COO was made aware of the possibility of the Radar signature being of own Helicopter which had taken off, he ignored it, pulling rank on the junior to give an order to shoot. The ATC officer who ordered recall, failed to inform the AD assets of the same. The Pilot flying the aircraft, apparently (as per media reports) failed to switch on IFF. I think the latter should also be court martialled posthumously, at least in the procedures. Can the COO be blamed? I do not think so. Can the ATC? Again, not entirely. The Pilot? Same status. There were faults of all involved. And a clear lack of experience (the battle experience). Such incidents are common in Army too, which is more battle hardened and experienced. There remains an officer who is on a growth trajectory to achieve at least two stars if not three, who is responsible for giving a mortar firing solution while drunk, which resulted in deaths of more than 10 of our own troops once, along LC. Such is the life. Mediocrity (at times criminal) does get rewarded in the forces. For a mediocre person hesitates to take risks, maintains status quo (and hence does not cause turbulence in system) and is never a threat for others. A bright guy usually is finished by the time the person achieves the rank of Maj/Lt Col and equivalents in forces.