India - Pakistan Standoff 2019
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This is the surprize what their army spokesperson was talking about. Intelligence failure and as well as assesment failure attributed to some officials in the Northern command. What if the intelligence might have got leaked from the Northern Command about India's assesment and PAF knew IAF was not expecting a BVRAAM combo.
Is that the only option they have? What about deployment of extra long range SAM batteries on the ground in POK. I hope IAF takes that into account as well.
Some one here can put light on it who is following their movements through media and all.
Valid points, rather they did not expect, while being overconfident and underestimating PAF' s retaliation. May be the lack of intelligence lead to such disastrous outcome.
SU30MKI in air and one of the Migs get shot while chasing an F16 and no SAM from our side lock down on any of the PAF even after they fired BVRAAM. Secondly it seems like we do not have SAMs in the proximity of LOC and they are only to secure the srinagar area. Or did we fire any SAM?
PS: Your post is very well organized , straight and to the point. Thank you for great and neutral insights.
This OBSESSION with February is Absurd
IAF has made the Relevant and Necessary
Changes and Improvements , but people in
This Forum are still indulging in Hair Splitting
Even Pakistanis are " Realistically Awaiting "
The Next Round
They know it is a matter of WHEN and Not if
And they have played all their cards
Cant agree more! And this is exactly all my posts are about. There is no point of any skirmish if India is not getting any of these.
In 1965 War , We made Many mistakes But Still Came out Victorious
And AFTER learning from such mistakes
We could plan and Implement our Strategy in 1971
This Over Critical Attitude is the Side Effect
Of the Internet
And AFTER learning from such mistakes
We could plan and Implement our Strategy in 1971
This Over Critical Attitude is the Side Effect
Of the Internet
This OBSESSION with February is Absurd
IAF has made the Relevant and Necessary
Changes and Improvements , but people in
This Forum are still indulging in Hair Splitting
Even Pakistanis are " Realistically Awaiting "
The Next Round
They know it is a matter of WHEN and Not if
And they have played all their cards
It's not about obsession it is about accountability. Why every f******* time one has to remind that if PAF has become headache because of ROEs , then what about China. You think Chinese would be not analysing what happened on 27th?
So we should have by NOW
made have a Cell in IAF , TO
Re Examine all such ROE s , which will hurt us in Future
ROEs along LOC and LAC both are different. India should be aware what Chinese are expecting in case of air combat. And on that basis India should formulate it's ROE for Army , Navy and Air.
Sure, you are free to have your opinion and thoughts. But that rationale has no bearing on my opinions and thoughts. Since, the armed forces are so adamant at keeping the civilians out of the loop during such incidents, my opinions will be formed accordingly. If the leadership of this country has the same line of thinking then I guess having no expectations from the armed forces at all is the best solution here.
So, how about this-
From my perspective (this is coming from someone whose family member is a Wing Commander in the Air Force), if my family members or I join the armed forces and somehow a random jihadi manages to blow my body apart including lets say the death of those 1000 other soldiers you mentioned, should we expect no escalation to war? Whats the point of these deaths then? Will these armed forces escalate if and only if some criterion are fulfilled? Who sets these arbitrary numbers as redlines? Will 2000 deaths suffice? or 5000? Or next you are gonna say that since there is no objective to be achieved with war, we should let these deaths go. Imagine telling the families that their husband's/son's life is really not worthy enough to go to war. What is the incentive here to join the armed forces? You do realize the signal that you are giving to the civilians here?
I get your point that PA are irrational actors, but are you telling me that those 1000s of strategists still haven't found a way to humiliate PA? Alright, if revenge cannot be a motive then start capturing land for every death that occurs. Step by step start eating up POK for every terrorist attack they orchestrate. How about publicly displaying the dead body of every infiltrator? That must have a psychological effect on general pakistani populace. Start a propaganda campaign to show the pakistani civillians the dead bodies of their fellow countrymen laying on LOC. All we get is a pathetic video once in 2 years or so. The whole of Pakistan can't be irrational, right? How about letting modi go to a world stage like UNGA and start displaying thousands of photos/videos showing pakistani bodies littering the LOC
Since I am a civilian and I have no basis to give such lectures/sermons, I'll stop lecturing the armed forces on what to do and how to do it. Enough people are already being paid to devise such strategies. But the least I expect the whole *censored*ing system to do, is to avenge those deaths somehow and present some tangible proof of the same. But even that is too much to ask while being branded a traitor.
The fact is that we are a nation that is larger than pakistan by a magnitude of several times and we still couldn't make it too expensive for them to sponsor terrorism in India. If we have failed at deterring them then its our complacency not theirs. Your explanation that that they are irrational and its not our fault, seems to me, is the result of same warped mindset. If we are still willing to take a sucker punch to our faces and not willing to retaliate, we really can't blame them if they keep punching us again and again. Which self respecting nation would let the death of 1000 soldiers slide like that?(paraphrasing you)
Somehow, my extremely subjective and pessimistic opinion is that, what we blame the PA for, is the same problem we have. After all, armed forces are comprised of humans, and humans everywhere have the same weaknesses. Nobody is innocent. After reading the incidents about IB being complicit with kashmiri politicians for milking the central govt., maybe just maybe, some higher ups in our chain of command have vested interests in keeping this shitshow in a status quo. I hope to god that this isn't so.
rant over /s.
Dont forget that Modi and Doval have expertise in making the enemy believe in one thing and doing the most unexpected. So, let Pakistan live in their make believe world.
Hey, I believe any death toll above 100 would, especially of armed forces, in case of IAF it can be as less as 20 pilots would be a casus belli for a wider range of actions. We almost reached that point on 27th hadn't they released Abhi. Please don't get me wrong, read my comment in unison with the other points I had made. We need to create a better arbitrage for reliably desirable results. Till such time there would be an element of chance in such short skirmishes.
There is something called the theory of deferred gratification. More often than not subjects going for delayed gratification fares way better than those wanting instant gratification. Same applies here. You can rest assured take it as a given within the next 2/3 years situation will go out of control in the valley and subsequent intensification of ruthless CI ops forcing a limited migration of KM's into PoK which will force Pak to react militarily and that will be the time and place for the wider conflict. This would happen irrespective of whether any short skirmish happens now over Kashmir. And just to add this new wave of conflict will start with Hindus settling in the valley.
A very practical and cold reply for this is, for a country like India such numbers are so small. Add a million to it, it's still negligible. Millions died in bengal femine, did it affect anything? This is also our strength.
Now coming to objective:
You are right with your view points. But please also understand, why would some on from Pakistan will try to blow Indian soldiers. What is he achieving or his masters achieving? What Pakistan is fighting for?
Answer: ''It's the land and its clear in their mind.'' Pakistan is clear with it's objective.
Now compare it to our side, what are Indians fighting for? Is it the revenge, is it against terrorism, or is it against Pakistan and if Pakistan why?
Answer: India has no clear objective, first it was terrorism without any proper base because world was fighting against terrorism, then it became internal separatism, then it became a political issue." No one says Indians are fighting to take back POK out of the clutches from Pakistan".
Conclusion: Without any proper goal told to military how are they going to raise their morale and perform.
Arjun ko pata hi nahi nishana kahan lagana hai!
Oh, yes. Quite a big one.
We were. We were not prepared to be sluggish though. That happens as not everyone is a brilliant combat mind on first instance.
We never expected PAF to fire from within their own territory. And we did not have many fighters like M2K and SU-30MKI ready and loaded with AAMs. We were on defensive CAP with no intention of retaliatory action in case of a strike by PAF.
Yes you were prepared no doubt but PAF was little bit more prepared. They knew you were not expecting BVRAAMS!
I just don't understand what were the assumptions on the part of IAF to arrive at such idiotic conclusions!
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