India - Pakistan Standoff 2019
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@randomradio
@suryakiran
@Guynextdoor
why do you think the Pak airspace is still closed? and whats this trickle of one or two flights coming in to their airspace once a while?
I saw only 3 flights over Pak the past 3 days: coming in from China, KSA and one going to London from ISB.
looks more like creditors coming in to ask for their money and the debtors fleeing the place.
log paise lene ke liye aa rahe hein aur ye log bhaag rahe he kya?
@suryakiran
@Guynextdoor
why do you think the Pak airspace is still closed? and whats this trickle of one or two flights coming in to their airspace once a while?
I saw only 3 flights over Pak the past 3 days: coming in from China, KSA and one going to London from ISB.
looks more like creditors coming in to ask for their money and the debtors fleeing the place.
log paise lene ke liye aa rahe hein aur ye log bhaag rahe he kya?
Foreign media will echo only what's being said by Indian and Pakistani media.
It's not about being optimistic or pessimistic, it's just common sense. Those bombs were massive. The Pakistanis haven't shown any sites with massive craters where the bombs could potentially have missed something.
And Pakistanis themselves have admitted 2 to 3 pilots with parachutes.
There is another thing that most ppl might not have noticed, US-Taliban talks. The current incident gives US a leverage on Pakistan during talks. If Pakistan plays coy in talks with US, India can up the ante and make their economy suffer more loss. Irony is that roles are reversed earlier Pakistan used terrorism to black mail India using US support, now India steam rolls Pakistan using US support. I think we will see more of it, its just a beginning. I bet Donald Trump will be grinning ear to ear , for north korean talks he ratchets up sanctions on trade with china and for taliban talks a stick for Pakistan from India.
Two year back, I joined my workplace as an lowly intern. I was assigned one shiny task and one shitty task. Shiny is a bit secret but shitty was simply this : label images from a drone as tarmac or not-tarmac. Basically put a marker on squares when the square has a tarmac. Its a boring job.. Simple but boring. I had a light bulb. I created a Mechanical Turk job and offered rewards to a crowd of people to do that because I was greedy for that job and wanted to prove my creds. I put it on my corporate card. I completed my work in about 1/10 th of time with very minimal expense. Less than what I charge for my trip from seattle to vancouver in a week. Best of all, my work could be reused..
Chief engineer called me, took me for coffee and spoke this : "If you had not been an intern you would have lost your job by now.". Apparently there was a big reason why they wanted me to do the shitty job personally and it had nothing to do with money.
Bending rules is fun and it leads to greatness. But then, you should know COMPLETELY what you are doing...
The humiliation of being forced to return our pilot unilaterally under threat of war seems to have dented them,but some guys here are celebrating.This was not something to celebrate .Pros and cons that came out of this -
Pros-
1.We rewrote the rules of strategic engagement.Even if BJP is voted out of power,a congress govt will not have the ability due to popular pressure to resist a similar move on next terror attack,as opposition will compare and tear it apart.Pak army's bluff permanently called.This is the main plus.
2.We took out an f-16 with obsolete mig-21,speaks of IAF capability.We exposed Pakistani DG ISPR lies,first about 2 planes shot down and 2nd pilot in custody and 2nd about no f-16s.All but confirming f-16 shootdown.
3.Situation is still very tense and indian military is forward deployed .The world now sees us as not having escalated,but if there is another terror attack within a short time -s ay next 6 months,nothing remains to stop us from decisive action.
4.We might see quicker release for defence funds,particularly for airforce and army.
Cons -
1.We lost the information war,though it was somewhat made up by pakistan's unilateral surrender of pilot.IAF suffered a loss of prestige,even though in reality it likely performed superbly.It will now have to wait for its moment of revenge.Like we avenged 99 shootdowns in 2002,IAF has a long memory.
2.We lost a major oppurtunity to set back pakistani plans to sponsor terror .If we had caused major damage to their air installations and naval ships it would have caused billions of dollars of damage,damage that they couldnt have afforded with bankrupt economy.They would take years to rebuild while we could replace our losses very quickly.Before trying next big attack they would remember the pain,and wouldn't try any before their airforce was back up which would take years,if they tried anything in the meantime we would strike with impunity on camps from sky.
3.Again we proved we took too long to take the decision.Imran khan was able to preempt us and saudis and usa got involved.
4.While i believe we took down an f-16 and pak propagandist dg ispr was left with egg in his face,many are beginning to become skeptical of actual impact of balakot bombings.No satellite images,no images,independent sources saying no visible damage.Targets may have been missed or damage far less than first claimed.GOI should release bombing photos quickly to pacify the doubts of many indians and prevent opposition oppurtunists from denial.
Military lessons -
1. We need pre-prepared aerial mobilization plans and strike plans which can be issued and exercised within 24 hours.German general staff of ww1 and ww2 used to do this.Their entire military machine was so efficient it could mobilize 2 million men in 48 hours.We need to mobilize our airforce quicker.Land mobilization is much more costly and not needed,cold start is enough.
2.We need better SAM cover.Fighter jets need time to scramble ,one of the reasons we were forced to use mig-21 is because vulnerable forward airbases in kashmir tend to have low priority expendable fighters,and because it has good response time,also its largely useless unless used as a point defence fighter.Its good that tejas will replace migs,while s-400 and barak mrsam are coming too.Nonetheless i think at least one mig-29UPG interceptor squadron needs to be shifted to kashmir ,perhaps srinagar.The 21 mig-29s coming should replace the shifted squadron at adampur.
3.It is very possible that in future during action over pak skies our pilots may further be captured.It is necessary that IA have prepared localized plans to attack and capture some pakistani forward posts.Take prisoners and then exchange them for pilots in old fashioned honourable way.
4.Since naval movements take time,navy should be kept in loop from beginning and minute terror attack happens should be called upon to be ready to strike .As soon as we strike their targets inside pak,they will try to retaliate.Here navy should already be forward deployed.It shouldn't be that u do a tri services chief meeting and then navy goes ahead.Meeting should only be to decide on attack or not.An offensive posture by navy is guaranteed to spook the Pakistanis,tehy know they have no defense against our huge fleet,no defense against brahmos,they know a ship lost is 200-500 million dollars and hundreds of sailors - catastrophic loss.And they know karachi holds their oil storage as well as bulk of their GDP.And they also know if IN comes from sea their airforce will be hopelessly stretched making it easier for IAF to break through.
5.We need all aircraft within 600-700 kms of pak in hardened shelters.Only way pak can strike deep into our main airbases is cruise missiles in an all out aerial shootout.SAMS,aaa and hardened shelters hould be combined to minimize effect.
Pros-
1.We rewrote the rules of strategic engagement.Even if BJP is voted out of power,a congress govt will not have the ability due to popular pressure to resist a similar move on next terror attack,as opposition will compare and tear it apart.Pak army's bluff permanently called.This is the main plus.
2.We took out an f-16 with obsolete mig-21,speaks of IAF capability.We exposed Pakistani DG ISPR lies,first about 2 planes shot down and 2nd pilot in custody and 2nd about no f-16s.All but confirming f-16 shootdown.
3.Situation is still very tense and indian military is forward deployed .The world now sees us as not having escalated,but if there is another terror attack within a short time -s ay next 6 months,nothing remains to stop us from decisive action.
4.We might see quicker release for defence funds,particularly for airforce and army.
Cons -
1.We lost the information war,though it was somewhat made up by pakistan's unilateral surrender of pilot.IAF suffered a loss of prestige,even though in reality it likely performed superbly.It will now have to wait for its moment of revenge.Like we avenged 99 shootdowns in 2002,IAF has a long memory.
2.We lost a major oppurtunity to set back pakistani plans to sponsor terror .If we had caused major damage to their air installations and naval ships it would have caused billions of dollars of damage,damage that they couldnt have afforded with bankrupt economy.They would take years to rebuild while we could replace our losses very quickly.Before trying next big attack they would remember the pain,and wouldn't try any before their airforce was back up which would take years,if they tried anything in the meantime we would strike with impunity on camps from sky.
3.Again we proved we took too long to take the decision.Imran khan was able to preempt us and saudis and usa got involved.
4.While i believe we took down an f-16 and pak propagandist dg ispr was left with egg in his face,many are beginning to become skeptical of actual impact of balakot bombings.No satellite images,no images,independent sources saying no visible damage.Targets may have been missed or damage far less than first claimed.GOI should release bombing photos quickly to pacify the doubts of many indians and prevent opposition oppurtunists from denial.
Military lessons -
1. We need pre-prepared aerial mobilization plans and strike plans which can be issued and exercised within 24 hours.German general staff of ww1 and ww2 used to do this.Their entire military machine was so efficient it could mobilize 2 million men in 48 hours.We need to mobilize our airforce quicker.Land mobilization is much more costly and not needed,cold start is enough.
2.We need better SAM cover.Fighter jets need time to scramble ,one of the reasons we were forced to use mig-21 is because vulnerable forward airbases in kashmir tend to have low priority expendable fighters,and because it has good response time,also its largely useless unless used as a point defence fighter.Its good that tejas will replace migs,while s-400 and barak mrsam are coming too.Nonetheless i think at least one mig-29UPG interceptor squadron needs to be shifted to kashmir ,perhaps srinagar.The 21 mig-29s coming should replace the shifted squadron at adampur.
3.It is very possible that in future during action over pak skies our pilots may further be captured.It is necessary that IA have prepared localized plans to attack and capture some pakistani forward posts.Take prisoners and then exchange them for pilots in old fashioned honourable way.
4.Since naval movements take time,navy should be kept in loop from beginning and minute terror attack happens should be called upon to be ready to strike .As soon as we strike their targets inside pak,they will try to retaliate.Here navy should already be forward deployed.It shouldn't be that u do a tri services chief meeting and then navy goes ahead.Meeting should only be to decide on attack or not.An offensive posture by navy is guaranteed to spook the Pakistanis,tehy know they have no defense against our huge fleet,no defense against brahmos,they know a ship lost is 200-500 million dollars and hundreds of sailors - catastrophic loss.And they know karachi holds their oil storage as well as bulk of their GDP.And they also know if IN comes from sea their airforce will be hopelessly stretched making it easier for IAF to break through.
5.We need all aircraft within 600-700 kms of pak in hardened shelters.Only way pak can strike deep into our main airbases is cruise missiles in an all out aerial shootout.SAMS,aaa and hardened shelters hould be combined to minimize effect.
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National unity will be there during emergency for sure.
What do you expect Khujliwal, Momota, Raj Thackeray et all to do, shout slogans in favour of Pakistan during wartime? They have no choice but to sit quietly until it all blows over. They will have no choice but to support the incumbent govt or get permanently branded as traitors.
I've a nagging feeling that just like the surgical strikes - 1, the kill factor was overhyped. Vastly overhyped, if you ask me. If we're looking at even 50-60 casualties here, Modi'd get hell. That's the only reason why he may escalate. After a few days, with a fresh gameplan.
I may be totally off the mark. But that's my gut instinct. I can't see any other reason for him not to make those images public.
I personally checked sat pictures yesterday and day before. That area is covered by clouds..
From social media and news channels, it doesn't look like India is all that unified right now either. Much of the fourth estate proved to be a fifth column in this 2 day sparring; and while their voices may have been amplified by how social media is, a lot of youngsters just don't seem capable of standing behind their country in a time of war (led by all sorts of celebrities who take "sophisticated" aka anti national stands).
Partially through Pakee spin and partially through India's sluggish & inadequate communication strategy; the Pakee narrative combined with the suspicious trends about Saying no to war and bringing the W Co back seemed to flood social media.
You are incorrectly reading my post.
Nowhere I relate victim-hood to him getting caught in enemy land, but him putting in a situation where anything could have happen.
Please note, we are talking of situations when adrenaline rush are high and you are moments away from death or become a hero. Under extreme conditions, error of judgement are bound to happen.
Moreover we are speculating all this, did IAF confirmed that he broke the rank?
More pertinent question is, did the whole operation was so fragile that one human error and it goes down into drain?
Or lets put all future terror blames on Abhinandan as if he was not caught, Indian forces were about to dismember Pakistan.
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