Indian Political Discussion

Are we seeing a succession plan here ? From Modi to Yogi in the coming decade . I happened to attend a business conference at the Taj President in Mumbai in Dec 17 where all the top business houses - including the likes of Ratan Tata & MUKESH Ambani were invited to invest in UP particularly those who had their roots in UP and they unequivocally cited the crime rates in UP as the biggest disincentive to investing there apart from the usual suspects - bureaucracy , corruption , judiciary , etc .

In less than 2 months , we're seeing action on this front . Your views @bonobashi

P.S - He ended the conference with the slogan - Mandir wahi banayenge. Just f.y.i.
 
The joke is, "8 PM, no CM." 8 PM also happens to be the name of an Indian whisky brand.
Anyway , Rajasthan alternates between the BJP & the Congress every other election . The CG results last time didn't quite indicate how close the contest between the Congress & the BJP was . I expect anti incumbency to kick in a very big way this time in CG. It's MP , I'm most interested in . Apart from anti incumbency , Vyapam has sullied the BJP's name and S.S.Chauhan's name too . The Congress , if they get their act together can unseat the BJP. Which brings us to the million dollar question - Will we see a resumption in old patterns of voting prevalent up until the 1984 elections where state governments were voted in and out based on local issues and the centre was elected on a different set of issues altogether ? That is the question .
 
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Anyway , Rajasthan alternates between the BJP & the Congress every other election

Yea, but the hope was that if any party could buck the trend, it'd be Modi-Shah's BJP.
The CG results last time didn't quite indicate how close the contest between the Congress & the BJP was . I expect anti incumbency to kick in a very big way this time in CG.

Yea, that seems quite likely.
It's MP , I'm most interested in . Apart from anti incumbency , Vyapam has sullied the BJP's name and S.S.Chauhan's name too . The Congress , if they get their act together can unseat the BJP.

It's definitely possible, but for that they have to find a single CM candidate and juggle the egos and aspirations of Scindia, Kamal Nath and Digvijaya. So we'll see.

Will we see a resumption in old patterns of voting prevalent up until the 1984 elections where state governments were voted in and out based on local issues and the centre was elected on a different set of issues altogether ?

Well, that could also depend on when the polls are held; to me it's beginning to look pretty certain that there will be earlier LS polls, clubbed with as many important state polls as possible.
 
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Well, that could also depend on when the polls are held; to me it's beginning to look pretty certain that there will be earlier LS polls, clubbed with as many important state polls as possible.

I think not . There are too many variables for that . For one , the effect of the sops offered to the agricultural sector to sink in . Then there's Mandal -2 followed by the RAM Janmabhoomi verdict around Diwali . These are just a few known variables , I can think about off hand . I suspect the elections for the centre will be conducted as per schedule.
 
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Kejriwal rejects the proposal of compensation to parents of #AnkitSaxena !Delhi CM Kejriwal met family of deceased #Hindu youth Ankit Saxena but did NOT announce any compensation to his parents.

Only medical & legal aid. Ankit was ONLY son of his parents. Had Ankit been Khalid from Peaceful Community, he would have announced 1 Crore for his family help, job et al.. #Secularism:love:
 
As term ends, Tripura CM Manik Sarkar says if Left didn’t count, why are we BJP’s headache now?
Speaking on criticism levelled at his government that tribals are less literate than non-tribals, in a state with the highest literacy level in the country at 97 per cent, Sarkar admits this was true but inevitable.
  • Written By Esha Roy | Agartala |
  • Updated: February 5, 2018 1:04 Pm
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Manik Sarkar, wife Panchali at home in Agartala. (Express Photo/Esha Roy)
FOR THE last 11 days, Chief Minister Manik Sarkar has been traversing the length and breadth of Tripura, one of the last remaining bastions of Communist power in the country. With Tripura going to polls on February 18, Sarkar will be attending 43 meetings more. But despite the packed schedule, the 69-year-old doesn’t miss his evening meetings at the CPI(M) headquarters in the heart of Agartala, every day, discussing issues related to the state or politics in general.

Much has been written about Sarkar over the years and especially the past few weeks. How he is the country’s poorest chief minister. How he or his wife own no properties or cars. How he donates his entire salary to the party, which then gives him Rs 9,000 as a monthly stipend. How he declared in his 2018 election affidavit that he has Rs 1,520 in hand and Rs 2,410 in his bank account.

But ask Sarkar about all that, and his reply is instant, sharp: “Please don’t ask me about my personal life.’’ Then ask the four-time chief minister about politics and this polls, and he gets all fired up. The fire is directed at the BJP, which has emerged as a key force in the state this time — and, as Sarkar admits, the CPI(M)’s “main rival”.

“Looking at ground reality, it seems to me the BJP is our main rival. Even at the Centre, the BJP has announced that their aim is to remove Communists from the country — and their attack is directed towards Tripura and Kerala. However, the ground that they have made in Tripura is not on their own merit or work — they have done so by eating up numerous parties, such as the Congress and much smaller tribal parties like the IPFT and its factions. Having said that, we are not ignoring the Congress. We consider the Congress, decimated as they may be, our opponent as well,’’ he says.

Related | Rajnath Singh slams Manik Sarkar govt, says Tripura wants change

However, Sarkar also firmly believes that “the BJP, RSS, VHP, Bajrang Dal” combine has given the Left “a fresh lease of life’’.

“The BJP, RSS, VHP, Bajrang Dal, what have you, have actually given the Left a boost. We are proud that they consider us the enemy and a threat. We are diametrically opposite in ideology, philosophy, policies, programmes and the nature of our political struggle. This isn’t the first time we’ve dealt with the RSS. They have been in Tripura for decades, even as a little boy I would hear of them. They tried the same thing when A B Vajpayee was prime minister. They have tried to convert tribals in the past, make inroads on the basis of religious rhetoric, but failed,” he says.

Sarkar doesn’t expect them to succeed this time, as well.

“On the contrary, what they are doing has helped us. We provide an alternative to this RSS-driven ideology. We consider this present moment a golden opportunity on the national stage. For all those who say Communism is losing relevance in today’s world, look at what is happening in JNU and DU, and Allahabad and Hyderabad universities. This is your proof that we are more relevant than ever before — not just among the poor and the dispossessed, but among the elite and the cream of society. If we were irrelevant, why should we be the BJP’s headache?’’ he asks.

But Agartala was also rocked with violent clashes between workers of the tribal separatist group IPFT and CPI(M) cadres in August 2016, which were widely believed to be tribals versus Bengalis — a claim that is vociferously denounced by Sarkar.

“The tribal areas in Tripura continue to be the stronghold of the Left, and you will see that in this election as well. It is also not true that the entire tribal population has always been on our side. The Congress first tried breaking in to the tribal areas in the 1970s, helped with the formation of the Tripura Upajati Juba Samiti (TUJS), and also formed a coalition government in 1988. So these pockets of anti-CPI(M) tribals remain. This does not mean that we have lost ground, they have simply switched over to the BJP now. And since the BJP has no real issues to fight us on, whether it’s corruption or policy — they are using these polarising divisive politics. Our stand is that we will not let Tripura be divided,’’ he says.

Speaking on criticism levelled at his government that tribals are less literate than non-tribals, in a state with the highest literacy level in the country at 97 per cent, Sarkar admits this was true but inevitable. “That’s because when we came to power there was literally no literacy amongst the tribals. But this has changed. Their literacy levels have improved remarkably and will continue to improve,’’ he says.

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Sarkar then lists his government’s achievements: largest number of pattas of land given to tribals (barring tribal-dominated northeastern states), comprehensive healthcare, per capita income of Rs 80,000 as opposed to Rs 10,000 when the CPI(M) came to power 25 years ago, rubber and tea plantations, and the production of excess energy that Tripura now exports to Bangladesh.

But yes, admits Sarkar, there are a couple of issues that need redressal — 17 per cent of urban youth in Tripura are unemployed, and a 2007 report published by his government points out that the state’s weakest link is transportation and connectivity.

“Even then, we recruit around 5,000-7,000 people every year in the government. There is no central government employment here. For employment to increase, we need more industries. We are largely dependent on small scale industries. But why will industries invest in Tripura? For that, they need proper infrastructure such as connectivity through road, rail and air and telecommunications. There is little we can do here, this is the Centre’s responsibility. Ever since the Niti Aayog replaced the planning commission, our special status was taken off, which means we have even less monetary reserves than before,’’ he says.

At the Chief Minister’s “quarter’’ on Marx Engels Sarani in Agartala, four large framed portraits hang inside the sitting room, one on each walls — of Rabindranath Tagore, Swami Vivekananda, Lenin and Marx. Another framed photograph of Tagore with Albert Einstein is kept on a shelf.

“There are several idols of Jesus Christ, and Durgas and Ganeshas — gifts from visitors which he insists that we keep,” says Panchali Bhattacharya, Sarkar’s wife, who was once a part of the women’s wing of CITU. “People come with all manner of problems. We even get estranged married couples who come to my husband, wanting him to fix their marriages.”

Inside an adjacent room, hundreds of books line the walls, spilling over bookshelves. “I have my Tagore and my Nazrul. In my job I go out and meet all these people in the districts and I get my energy from their enthusiasm. How am I poor? I am very rich as far as I can tell,’’ says Sarkar.

In Tripura, Sarkar’s honesty is not under question. “But which Manik Sarkar are you asking about?” asks Sarkar’s bitter rival and state Congress vice president Tapas Dey. “There are two — Manik Sarkar the man and Manik Sarkar the Chief Minister. Manik Sarkar the man is a very good person indeed. However, we believe that Manik Sarkar the Chief Minister, while honest himself, has shielded a corrupt government.’’

As term ends, Tripura CM Manik Sarkar says if Left didn’t count, why are we BJP’s headache now?
 
I think not . There are too many variables for that . For one , the effect of the sops offered to the agricultural sector to sink in . Then there's Mandal -2 followed by the RAM Janmabhoomi verdict around Diwali . These are just a few known variables , I can think about off hand . I suspect the elections for the centre will be conducted as per schedule.

That's a fair, and strong point as well. I don't know then, because on one hand you're right, they do have some "aces up the sleeve" that won't come out till the eve of (scheduled) elections in 2019; but at the same time, in some of the states they're defending and in some states where they are hoping to make a bigger mark this time, it seems like they'd be best served if national and state polls were simultaneous and a significant chunk of people picked one party for both governments instead of one party at the center and one for the state. Not to mention, anti-incumbency and cohesiveness among the opposition parties (and any momentum in their favor) is only likely to increase with time.

Guess we'll see...
 
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By N. Paul Divakar on 02/02/20182 Comments

The Dalit and Adivasi community’s analysis of the budget shows gross under allocation – only 50.7% has been allocated towards targeted schemes for SCs and 51.24% for STs.

On the 26th January 1950, we are going to enter into a life of contradictions. In politics we will have equality and in the social and economic life we will have inequality. In politics we will recognize the principle of one man one vote and one vote one value. In our social life and economic life, we shall, by reason of our economic and social structure, continue to deny the principle of one-man one value…

—B.R. Ambedkar

Ambedkar’s words continue to be pertinent even today. Despite years of independence, the marginalised and vulnerable sections of the society, especially Dalits and Adivasis, continue to lag severely behind in the developmental paradigm and process. if we were to look at the budget presented in parliament today, development has now become only a fancy word.

The Union Budget 2018-19 is the second budget under the new financial scheme of merging the plan and non-plan aspects of the budget as well as the first since the introduction of the goods and services tax (GST). In the budget, there was a fundamental shift made towards a ‘welfare model of SC/ST’, revamping Scheduled Caste Sub Plan and Tribal Sub Plan to Scheduled Caste Component and Scheduled Tribe Component (SCC-STC), making it an unwarranted retrogressive move, and making SCs and STs mere beneficiaries of welfare programmes. In light of the new developments, the quantum of allocation towards, SCC-STC is from the entire budget as opposed to 30% of the total Union Budget. However, despite a shift in the approach, no steps have been taken in the year to introduce any guidelines by the government, making it difficult to hold the government accountable.

Our analysis of the budget 2017-18 reveals a continuation of old patterns. Finance minister Arun Jaitley presented an Rs 24, 42,213.30 crore expenditure budget. The allocations under SCC-STC continue to be much below the mandated amount. In the merged scenario of Plan and Non-Plan estimates, allocations are being made under Centrally Sponsored Schemes (CS) and Central Sector Schemes (CSS). Both these pertain to developmental outlays. Allocations under CSS and CS towards SC and ST development are to be a minimum, and not less than their proportionate population, which according to Census 2011 is 16.6% for SCs and 8.6% for STs.


In the current year, only Rs 56, 619 crore, i.e. 6. 55 % of the total budget expenditure, is allocated for the SCs and Rs 39, 135 crore, i.e. 4.53 % for the STs, with a total of SCC-STC amounting to 11 % of the total budget. The allocations under both SCC and STC continue to severely fall short of the mandated amount. Under SCC, the allocations were short by 10.5% and 4.07% for SCs and STs respectively.

We welcome the move for the Rs 12.56 crores allocation towards scholarships for students with disabilities. It is good that govt has recognised disability as an issue. The introduction of Eklavya Scheme for construction of schools in tribal areas for ST students is also good However there are already existing ashram schools which are underfunded and poorly maintained, how is Eklavya going to be different?

“From the Tribal Perspective, the 2018-19 union budget has been set back for Tribal Development Rights and mere rhetoric when it comes to the real aspirations of the Adivasi/Tribal community across the country. Various marginalised sections of the Tribal community such as migrants, women, youth, displaced and most vulnerable feel disappointed as this budget offers nothing new,” says Abhay Xaxa of the National Campaign on Adivasi Rights.

However, one of the worse affected as a result of these poor allocations are students in higher education institutions across the country. The caste system keeps both the places and mechanisms of knowledge production and institutions outside the reach of the Dalit and Adivasi community. Dalit and Adivasi students face multiple forms of discrimination and exclusion in institutions, sometimes even physical and sexual violence resulting in increased drop out rates among the communities and and/or prevalence of high suicide rate.

In the budget, Rs 3,000 crore for SCs and about Rs 1,586 crore for STs are allocated especially towards Post Matric Scholarship. Such an amount falls severely short of addressing the mandated needs of students.

Regarding gender, budgeting again remains plain rhetoric; when analysing the allocations for women, specifically Dalit and Adivasi women, under the Union budget 2018-19, only 1.03% of allocations under the Gender Budget Statement are allocated towards SC and ST women amounting to Rs 1,251.93 crore. This is only a pittance compared to the needs of the Dalit and Adivasi women.


While construction of toilets is taking place at an alarming speed, little is being done towards the employment of women engaged in manual scavenging. It is mostly women from these communities who are engaged in manual scavenging. While emphasis is laid on construction, little or no focus is given to actual usage. Those engaged in manual scavenging are given one-time compensation, but little is done post that to ensure women’s access to gainful employment. The allocation for Self Employment Scheme for safai karamcharis has increased from Rs 5 crore to Rs 20 crore – a welcome move. However, the share of the National Safai Karamchari Finance Development Corporation has reduced from Rs 45 crore to Rs 30 crore. There is no proportionate allocation towards ensuring gainful employment of the community engaged in manual scavenging.

A deeper analysis of the nature of allocation for SC welfare schemes show that only 50.7% has been allocated towards targeted schemes for SCs and 51.24% for STs. While a majority of the allocation is under general or non-targeted schemes, that include several administration related expenses, they are contrary to the underlying principle of ‘directly benefit individuals, families and hamlets belonging to SC/ST Community’. The targeted schemes amounted only to Rs 28,698 crore for SCC and Rs 19,623 crores out of the total allocations. The special components for SCs and STs have been visionary, but the purpose remains defeated due to gross under allocations, notional and general allocations along with unspent amount. The Jadhav guidelines, meant to be followed while allocating, have been continuously flouted. Therefore, it is absolutely paramount that the sub-plans are legislated with strict mechanisms for effective implementation.

N. Paul Divakar is general secretary of the National Campaign on Dalit Human Rights and is an expert on fiscal matters with specific reference to the SCSP and TSP. Analysis and research has been done by the team at Dalit Arthik Adhikar Andolan-NCDHR.
Budget 2018: Kiska Saath, Kiska Vikas? - The Wire